2025-10-02 05:40

Oct 2 (Reuters) - Citigroup raised its year-end outlook for ether and slightly trimmed its view on bitcoin, citing shifting investor flows and macroeconomic crosscurrents. Investors are increasingly favouring the yield-generating ether over bitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency, which relies solely on price appreciation. Sign up here. The Wall Street brokerage's target of $133,000 for bitcoin implies a roughly 12% upside from its trading level of $118,747.48, as of 0530 GMT. For ether , the target is $4,500, implying a nearly 3% upside from its level of $4,375. Citi sees continued upside next year, with a 12-month target of $5,440 for ether and $181,000 for bitcoin. Bitcoin's year-end forecast was revised slightly lower, as Citi pointed to offsetting macro factors including a stronger dollar and weaker gold prices. While bitcoin continues to trade above adoption model estimates, the brokerage said its "digital gold" narrative remains intact and is likely to attract a larger share of incremental flows. Citi analysts raised their year-end forecast for ether, noting the token's sharp price jump over the summer as institutional investors and financial advisors ramped up crypto buying. The brokerage expects it to end 2025 modestly higher, supported by strong inflows from exchange-traded funds and digital asset treasuries. Citi's base case assumes robust year-end flows of $7.5 billion into bitcoin, with a bull case predicated on stronger equity markets and higher demand. For ether, the upside is driven by increased adoption and potential yield generation via staking and decentralised finance platforms. Bear case for bitcoin sees prices falling to $83,000 if recessionary macro conditions materialise, while ether's downside is harder to model due to uncertainty around network activity and value accrual, the brokerage noted. Both tokens are trading above user-activity-based metrics, and Citi emphasised that sustained investor demand will be key to supporting prices through year-end and into 2026. https://www.reuters.com/business/citigroup-lifts-ether-outlook-trims-bitcoin-view-shifting-investor-flows-2025-10-02/

2025-10-02 05:28

JAKARTA, Oct 2 (Reuters) - Miner Freeport Indonesia said on Thursday that the search for five missing workers at the Grasberg copper and gold mine was still ongoing, more than three weeks after a deadly mud flow disaster at the site. Around 800,000 metric tons of wet material flooded the mine on September 8, trapping seven workers. Two bodies have since been recovered. Sign up here. Operator Freeport-McMoRan has already declared force majeure at the mine and lowered its sales estimates. "The search for our five colleagues who are still missing continues relentlessly," Katri Krisnati, a Freeport Indonesia spokeperson said in a statement. "This high-risk rescue process also faces significant challenges due to the movement of wet material," the statement added. Rescuers excavated two access routes and are deploying heavy equipment with remote control systems, as the search area deepens and air circulation becomes more limited, Freeport said. The company did not immediately respond to a question about the condition of the trapped workers. The incident, as well as the suspension of all mining activities at Grasberg, has caused a jump in global copper prices. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/freeport-indonesia-says-search-five-trapped-grasberg-workers-still-ongoing-2025-10-02/

2025-10-02 05:18

Dollar gains against euro and yen Fed and private data mitigate impact of missing government reports Traders expect Fed rate cuts; Dallas Fed President cautious on further cuts NEW YORK, Oct 2 (Reuters) - The dollar gained against the euro and yen on Thursday, with the greenback rebounding against the Japanese currency after four consecutive days of losses, as traders weighed the impact of a U.S. government shutdown. The shutdown leaves a gap in government data, including the closely watched monthly jobs report for September that was due to be released on Friday. Sign up here. Still, with Federal Reserve and private data continuing to be released, the void may not be as bad as feared, said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York. "That really misunderstands how the markets have evolved with private sector data," Chandler said. "I don't think that either the market nor the Fed is flying blind." A Chicago Fed report on Thursday, which combines private and available public data, estimated the September jobless rate was 4.3%, the same as in August and evidence that a feared rapid rise in unemployment had not yet begun. But details of the report, along with other data, pointed to ongoing sluggishness in the labor market. The dollar fell on Wednesday after the ADP National Employment report showed private payrolls decreased by 32,000 in September, boosting expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates two more times this year. But the currency retraced that move on Thursday. "A lot of people thought that with the government closing, the dollar would sell off. And I think that people got caught leaning the wrong way, and now are being forced out of positions," Chandler said. The dollar index was last up 0.13% on the day at 97.86. The euro fell 0.09% to $1.1719. Traders see a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed’s October meeting as almost certain and are pricing in a 90% probability of an additional cut in December, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan on Thursday said the U.S. central bank appropriately cut rates last month to guard against the risk of a sharp deterioration in the job market, but said that so far the cooling has been gradual and signaled she is not eager to cut rates further. Against the Japanese yen , the dollar strengthened 0.08% to 147.17. Traders are watching this weekend’s election to lead Japan's ruling party for signs on how fiscal policy will influence the currency. Sterling weakened 0.25% to $1.3443. Traders have started to assess the impact the UK November budget will have on the economy and sterling. "In the UK there's a focus on the fiscal situation," said Eric Theoret, FX strategist at Scotiabank in Toronto. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin gained 2.24% to $120,218. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/dollar-gains-supreme-court-allows-feds-cook-stay-job-now-2025-10-02/

2025-10-02 05:08

LITTLETON, Colorado, Oct 2 (Reuters) - Italy's enduring economic malaise is resulting in the lowest emissions from its power sector in decades. But climate activists should beware that planned measures to boost the economy could trigger a swift U-turn in pollution trends. Over a decade of economic stagnation has seen Italy's economic growth fall far behind that of regional rivals, resulting in steadily declining goods output and exports and lower power consumption by many of the country's businesses. Sign up here. Lower power demand from industry has in turn allowed Italy's utilities to curb fossil fuel-fired power output and cut power sector emissions to historic lows in what was formerly a top-10 polluting nation. In response to the enduring economic quandary, though, the government is rolling out stimulus measures aimed at reviving industrial activity that will likely trigger higher power generation and emissions in the world's eighth-largest economy. LOSING GROUND High public debt levels, rising labour costs, a stifling bureaucracy and a declining population have resulted in Italy's economy stagnating since the 2008 financial crisis, while Europe's overall economy has expanded by more than 20%. Italy's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025 is roughly flat compared to 2008, at around $2.4 trillion, data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) shows. Over that same time span, Germany's economy expanded by close to 25%, France's economy by 10%, and the overall economy of the European Union by 22%. Due to hefty public debt levels - the highest among major European economies - alongside strict European Union rules over currency adjustments, Italy's government has so far been restricted in terms of intervention options. This has left industry fending for itself and resulted in a steep decline in the output of durable goods such as cars and machinery that had previously been major drivers of Italy's economy. POWERING DOWN On top of the limited government help, Italy's industries have also had to contend with a drastic upheaval to local natural gas markets in the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and some of the highest power costs in Europe. Italy gets over 40% of its electricity from gas-fired power plants and secures over 90% of its gas supplies from imports, according to data from the Energy Institute. This gas-heavy slant to its energy system has resulted in a steep rise in Italy's wholesale power costs, which have averaged around 32% more than those in Germany and France and 70% more than those in Spain since 2022, data from LSEG shows. Such sharply higher power costs have further undermined the competitiveness of Italy-based businesses, and resulted in a historic decline in overall power demand in the country as industries curtailed output. Between 2008 and 2024, Italy's total electricity output declined by 15% to around 265 terawatt hours, data from Ember shows. Fossil fuel-fired electricity production dropped by 47% between 2008 and 2024, while output from clean energy sources rose by 124%. CLEAN GROWTH? The rise in clean electricity supplies - driven mainly by surges in solar and wind power output - has resulted in Italy's power system emissions falling by 50% between 2008 and 2024, to around 76 million tons of carbon dioxide, Ember data shows. Any sustained upturn in overall economic activity, however, will require utilities to boost output from fossil fuel plants, as renewable energy supplies remain too patchy to properly support a consistent rise in total energy demand. What's more, many of the economic stimulus measures being pursued are targeted at building Italy's infrastructure, on the assumption that construction of road, rail, power and tunnel systems will send positive ripples throughout the economy. Yet such projects require the energy-intensive production of steel and cement, which not only require higher volumes of industrial power supplies but also emit substantial amounts of emissions themselves. Further development of Italy's clean energy supplies is also targeted in government infrastructure plans, including large battery energy storage projects in northern Italy, new wind farms along southern regions, and the country's largest solar park in the countryside north of Rome. Once completed, those projects will help utilities make further cuts to their dependence on gas and coal for power, and may help limit any forthcoming rebounds in power emissions. But over the near term at least, the expected coordinated rise in industrial activity aimed at boosting economic growth will likely also lift Italy's emissions, and snap the recent trend of steadily falling pollution. The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), your essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis of everything from swap rates to soybeans. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X , opens new tab. https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/italys-economic-woes-have-climate-upside-now-2025-10-02/

2025-10-02 04:34

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland Investors already knew the U.S. labour market needed support, but there is something particularly ominous in the miserable ADP employment report delivered to the market just as the government shutdown ended the flow of official data. Sign up here. The ADP reported a 32,000 drop in payrolls against economist expectations of a 50,000 rise for September. And the 54,000 advance for August was revised to a small decline. For now, traders are embracing a "bad news is good news" narrative, adding to bets for quarter-point rate cuts at each of the Federal Reserve's remaining policy meetings this year. High-growth chip-sector shares were clear winners on Wall Street, and that flowed over to Asia, buoying bourses from Tokyo to Taipei and Hong Kong to Seoul. European futures are pointing firmly higher as well. Short-dated Treasury yields dipped further in Tokyo, touching a fresh two-week trough. And that kept the dollar pinned near a one-week low versus a basket of its major rivals. Gold is taking a well-deserved rest after rocketing to the cusp of $3,900 for the first time ever overnight, but hasn't strayed far, last changing hands around $3,866. How long the U.S. shutdown lasts could be key, analysts say. Currently, there's still several weeks before the Fed's next rate decision on October 29, so there's plenty of cushion to get the employment and other data back on-line. Unfortunately, the deep partisan divisions that led to the shutdown point to a protracted battle, and could leave the Fed to a large extent flying blind. Barring some miracle, there will be no release of crucial monthly payrolls data on Friday, and the weekly Thursday jobless claims figures will be an even earlier victim of the Labor Department going dark. That means private Challenger layoffs data later today will garner much more attention than usual. Fedspeak won't be affected, with Dallas Fed chief Lorie Logan due to make an appearance. In Europe, ECB Vice-President Luis De Guindos and other policymakers, including ECB board member Patrick Montagner, Irish central bank head Gabriel Makhlouf and Riksbank Governor Erik Thedéen, are due to address various forums. Key developments that could influence markets on Thursday: - Swiss CPI (September) - Euro-area unemployment rate (August) - US Challenger layoffs (September) - US shutdown means no official data releases https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-view-europe-2025-10-02/

2025-10-02 01:55

SYDNEY, Oct 2 (Reuters) - Australia's surplus on goods trade shrank sharply in August as shipments of gold plunged after a run of strong months, data showed on Thursday, while imports were up across the board. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported the surplus on goods fell to A$1.8 billion ($1.19 billion) in August, from a revised A$6.6 billion in July. That was far below market forecasts for a A$6.2 billion surplus. Sign up here. Exports dived climbed 7.8%, led by a 47% drop in non-monetary gold. Imports rose 3.2%, with gains across consumer goods, aircraft, and telecom equipment. ($1 = 1.5389 Australian dollars) https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/australia-trade-surplus-shrinks-sharply-gold-exports-dive-2025-10-02/