2025-11-12 11:19

Pound weakens amid political uncertainty and budget concerns Sterling down 0.2% against dollar, 0.1% against euro 75% chance of BoE rate cut next month after labour data LONDON, Nov 12 (Reuters) - The British pound fell for a second day on Wednesday after soft labour market data the day before and reports in British newspapers that Prime Minister Keir Starmer was on alert for an attempted plot to oust him. Several British media outlets on Wednesday cited allies of Starmer saying the prime minister would fight any challenge to his leadership. Health Secretary Wes Streeting denied reports he was plotting to bring down the prime minister. Sign up here. "The pound is staying weak and you'd think it probably does relate to this Starmer story," said ING head of research Chris Turner. "The uncertainty around the post-budget environment demands extra risk premium for sterling." The pound was last down 0.2% against the dollar to $1.3125. Against the euro , sterling slipped as much as 0.2% to 88.26 pence, close to its lowest level in 2-1/2 years. BUDGET IN FOCUS Sterling is still sitting on a hefty 5% gain against the dollar this year, but angst is rising ahead of the November 26 budget, where tax rises are expected to be needed to balance the public accounts. The outlook for the public finances has deteriorated because of previous plans to water down welfare spending cuts and an expected cut to productivity forecast by Britain's budget watchdog. British bonds were underperforming peers in Europe and the U.S. on Wednesday, with the 10-year gilt yield up 3 basis points. Bond yields move inversely with prices. BOE DECEMBER CUT STILL ON RADAR Markets were placing about a 75% chance of a quarter-point reduction in borrowing costs from the Bank of England next month after Tuesday's labour market data that showed a tick up in the unemployment rate to 5%. Meanwhile, pay growth, excluding bonuses, slowed to 4.6% in the three months to September. The pound fell against both the dollar and euro on Tuesday as the data provided hints that inflation pressures were easing. "We think the UK economy is weaker relative to the euro area, which should pave the way for a weaker pound here," said Mohamad Al-Saraf, FX strategist at Danske Bank. In remarks on Tuesday, BoE rate-setter Megan Greene welcomed the fall in wage growth, although she showed concern about surveys pointing towards relatively high pay settlements next year. Greene voted with the majority to keep the Bank Rate unchanged at last week's policy meeting. https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/pound-dips-possible-starmer-leadership-plot-sparks-uncertainty-2025-11-12/

2025-11-12 11:04

BRUSSELS, Nov 12 (Reuters) - European Union countries have agreed to start talks with the UK to link the two sides' carbon markets, a spokesperson for Denmark's EU presidency said on Wednesday, in a move billed as part of a reset in relations following Britain's exit from the bloc. By linking their carbon markets, the two sides would exempt one another from their respective carbon border tariffs. However the linkage is unlikely to happen in time for British firms to avoid the EU's carbon border levy, which from January 1 will impose fees on the bloc's imports of steel, cement and other goods. Sign up here. EU countries' ambassadors agreed unanimously in a closed-door meeting that negotiations on the link would go ahead, said a spokesperson for Denmark, which holds the EU's rotating presidency. The EU mandate needs approval at a meeting of EU countries' ministers on Monday, but that is a formality and they are expected to wave it through with no changes. The link has been backed by both European and UK industries, with British firms noting that a key upside would be avoiding the EU's carbon border levy - which would not apply if the two sides link their carbon markets. The UK government has said the EU carbon border tariff would cost UK companies around 800 million pounds a year. But it will take several years to link the markets, given the technical complexity of the schemes and the required technical changes. British industries could face the EU carbon levy in the meantime. The UK plans to launch its own carbon border levy, but a year after the EU, in 2027. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/eu-countries-ready-negotiate-uk-carbon-market-link-2025-11-12/

2025-11-12 11:00

IEA introduces new scenario showing oil demand growing into 2050 Move follows pressure from Trump administration on energy watchdog New scenario however points to dangerous increase in global temperatures LONDON, Nov 12 (Reuters) - The International Energy Agency’s latest outlook signals that oil demand may continue rising into 2050, a sharp shift from its previous reports and a stark reminder of how dominant black gold remains in the global economy. The IEA's annual World Energy Outlook, published on Wednesday, maps out different trajectories for energy demand through 2050. This release is normally a pretty mundane affair, but not this year, as the outlook has become a political football. Sign up here. Officials in U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration have accused the Paris-based watchdog of politicising energy by suggesting that demand for fossil fuels could plateau by 2030. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has called peak oil demand "nonsensical". It is therefore notable that the 2025 report introduced a new scenario showing that, given current government policies, oil demand will not plateau in 2030 but will instead hit 113 million barrels per day by mid-century, up around 13% from 2024 consumption. TROUBLING MESSAGE ON GLOBAL WARMING The “existing policies” baked into the Current Policy Scenario (CPS) range from renewables mandates and fossil fuel extraction laws to construction and vehicle emission standards. The CPS, which appears to be the base scenario among several IEA projections, "offers a cautious perspective" on the speed of adoption of new technologies and therefore assumes a bigger role for fossil fuels in the coming decades. Former critics of the IEA may hail this about-face as a much-needed dose of reality to counter the organisation's previous green leanings. And, to be fair, previous scenarios probably were overly optimistic about the implementation of climate-friendly policies and the shift away from fossil fuels. But political matters aside, the message CPS is sending is troubling. It points towards a 2.9 degree Celsius rise in temperatures above pre-industrial levels by 2100, far exceeding the 1.5 degree target which scientists say is needed to avoid the most catastrophic impacts of climate change. If that’s right, the world is in big trouble. QUESTIONABLE ASSUMPTIONS UNDERPIN CPS The CPS is underpinned by some highly questionable assumptions, however. First, it presumes recent technological leaps that led to sharp declines in the cost of batteries, electric vehicles and renewables will largely stagnate and even decline in some countries through 2035. It also assumes efficiency gains to internal combustion engines will moderate after 2035, slowing a multi-decade trend. At the heart of the CPS's bullish oil demand outlook is a highly conservative assumption about the growth rate of EV sales, which accounted for 25% of new car sales globally in 2025, up from 5% in 2020. Projections related to autos matter enormously to the broader energy outlook because road transportation is responsible for around 45% of global oil use today. While the CPS projects that electric car sales will continue to grow rapidly in China and the European Union to reach 90% of all auto sales by 2035, it also assumes that EV market share will flatline at around 15% in other countries such as the United States and India. While it is true that EV adoption in the U.S. did slow in the past year, partly due to the elimination of subsidies, extrapolating from that when projecting future demand is tough to justify when EVs are becoming cheaper globally and the technology is improving. Are U.S. consumers really going to stick with an outdated technology as a new one becomes ever more affordable? Moreover, the CPS assumes gasoline and diesel consumption will continue to grow into 2050, which would require investment in new refining capacity. But that type of capital-intensive investment is unlikely unless oil prices rise and remain elevated for a meaningful period. Of course, higher gasoline prices would make internal combustion cars less competitive against battery-powered vehicles. Overall, the CPS appears rooted in the belief that barriers preventing the development and adoption of low-carbon technologies will only grow. Given the enormous investments in these fields globally – investments in clean energy technologies worldwide are set to reach $2.2 trillion in 2025 - the boost expected from artificial intelligence and the push for greater energy security, such assumptions are a bit head-scratching. NET ‘ZERO HOUR’? The IEA is justified in acknowledging the political and economic realities that have kept the world from meeting its various climate pledges. In particular, the agency is right to point out that the climate agenda has slowed in recent years in the wake of the energy price shock that followed Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The focus has clearly shifted from energy transition to energy security. The United States also dealt a heavy blow to the energy transition efforts after President Trump pulled the country out of the 2015 Paris climate accord on the first day of his second term. He has since scrapped many of his predecessor's flagship green policies and regulations. But none of this changes the fact that the energy transition is an economic necessity, as the overwhelming scientific consensus indicates that the rising costs of preventing the effects of climate change dwarf the costs of deploying new technologies for cleaner energy. As world leaders and scientists gather in Belem, Brazil for the COP30 climate summit, the IEA's outlook will make for sobering reading. Want to receive my column in your inbox every Monday and Thursday, along with additional energy insights and links to trending stories? Sign up for my Power Up newsletter here. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), , opens new tabyour essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI , opens new tab can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X. , opens new tab https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/ieas-bullish-oil-outlook-is-nod-trump-wake-up-call-world-2025-11-12/

2025-11-12 10:59

Nov 12 (Reuters) - At least 42 migrants are missing and presumed dead after a rubber boat capsized off the coast of Libya, the International Organization for Migration said on Wednesday. Libyan authorities rescued seven survivors who had drifted at sea for six days after the vessel, carrying 49 people, sank near the Al Buri oilfield, an offshore facility north-northwest of the Libyan coast. Sign up here. IOM said the migrants were from Sudan, Nigeria, Cameroon, and Somalia. Libya has become a transit route for migrants fleeing conflict and poverty to Europe across the Mediterranean since the fall in 2011 of dictator Muammar Gaddafi during a NATO-backed uprising. The number of migrants who drowned in the central Mediterranean had already surpassed 1,000 this year, the IOM said, and this week's incident raised that toll "even further". Across the entire Mediterranean, there were 2,452 such deaths in 2024, IOM data shows. "This tragic event, coming just weeks after other deadly incidents off Surman and Lampedusa, underscores the persistent dangers faced by migrants and refugees along the Central Mediterranean Route," it said in the statement. In mid-October, a group of 61 bodies of migrants were recovered on the coast west of the capital Tripoli. In September, IOM said at least 50 people had died after a vessel carrying 75 Sudanese refugees caught fire off Libya's coast. On Tuesday, several states including Britain, Spain, Norway and Sierra Leone urged Libya at a U.N. meeting in Geneva to close detention centres where rights groups say migrants and refugees have been tortured, abused and sometimes killed. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/least-42-migrants-missing-presumed-dead-after-boat-capsizes-off-libya-iom-says-2025-11-12/

2025-11-12 10:41

BEIJING, Nov 12 (Reuters) - China's energy administration said on Wednesday that it will push renewable energy use beyond the power sector over the next five years, aiming to better absorb the country's booming wind and solar output. Provinces and power producers should help local governments to build up their industrial bases for green hydrogen, green ammonia, green methanol, and sustainable aviation fuel during the next five-year plan from 2026-2030, the National Energy Administration (NEA) said in its opinion document on integrating new energy. Sign up here. Green hydrogen uses renewable electricity to power a chemical reaction that splits water into hydrogen and oxygen molecules. It can serve as a low-carbon fuel for heavy industry and transport, power industrial processes or vehicles, and as a feedstock for ammonia and methanol, which are used in fertilisers, shipping and elsewhere. The department encouraged coastal areas to explore using offshore wind to produce hydrogen, a still nascent production method. The document also called for using renewables to power heating, particularly in industrial parks. Energy planners see low-carbon industrial parks as a key to decarbonisation goals because industry consumes some 60% of the country's electricity, according to the International Energy Agency. Finding new outlets for renewable power is becoming more urgent as China's fleet, the world's largest, sometimes generates more electricity than the grid can accept, a mismatch known as curtailment. That is expected to be a focus for energy regulators during the next five-year plan. Energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie forecast recently that solar curtailment rates would average more than 5% in 21 Chinese provinces over the next 10 years. That would be up from just 10 provinces experiencing that level of curtailment during January to August this year, according to official data, though still within China's national-level limit of 10%. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/china-planning-renewable-energy-expansion-beyond-power-sector-2025-11-12/

2025-11-12 08:00

Nov 12 (Reuters) - Oil major TotalEnergies (TTEF.PA) , opens new tab has agreed a 15-year power purchase deal to supply Alphabet's Google (GOOGL.O) , opens new tab with 1.5 terawatt hours of renewable electricity from its Montpelier solar farm in Ohio, the French company said on Wednesday. The solar facility, which is nearing completion, is connected to the PJM grid, the largest in the United States, and will help power Google’s data centre operations in the state, it said. Sign up here. "This agreement illustrates TotalEnergies’s ability to meet the growing energy demands of major tech companies by leveraging its integrated portfolio of renewable and flexible assets," said Stéphane Michel, President of Gas, Renewables and Power at TotalEnergies. The company's growing investment in electricity is helping the company secure a steadier revenue stream and avoid the boom-and-bust cycles typical of oil and gas, CEO Patrick Pouyanne said earlier this month at the ADIPEC conference in Abu Dhabi. The Paris-listed firm is deploying a 10 gigawatt portfolio in the United States, with onshore solar, wind and battery storage projects. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/totalenergies-agrees-renewable-power-deal-with-google-ohio-data-centres-2025-11-12/