2025-11-12 06:59

Traders uncertain about long-term impact on US dollar trust Fed policymakers cautious on further rate cuts amid inflation concerns Euro rises against dollar, yen weakens amid BOJ rate hike speculation NEW YORK, Nov 13 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar dipped on Thursday as the U.S. government reopened, leaving traders grappling with the long-term impact the shutdown will have on trust in the U.S. currency and ahead of a deluge of data on the health of the economy. The shutdown was the U.S. government's longest, snarling air traffic, cutting food assistance to low-income Americans and forcing more than 1 million workers to go unpaid for more than a month. Sign up here. "The shutdown is over, but how soon are we going to go back to normal? How soon are we going to have numbers? How soon am I going to be able to do real, accurate analysis based on trusted American statistics from September and October? That's in doubt," said Juan Perez, director of trading at Monex USA in Washington. White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said on Thursday the government would release the closely watched employment report for October, but without the jobless rate because the household survey wasn't conducted during the month. The data could influence Federal Reserve policy, though the trajectory of interest rates for now remains murky. Citing worries about inflation and signs of relative stability in the labor market after two U.S. interest rate cuts this year, a growing number of Federal Reserve policymakers are signaling reticence on further easing, helping push financial market-based odds of a reduction in borrowing costs in December to below 50%. The falling odds of a December rate cut failed to boost the greenback on Thursday. The U.S. currency was boosted after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last month that an interest rate cut at the U.S. central bank’s December meeting is not certain, but momentum behind that trade has faded, said Sarah Ying, head of FX strategy at CIBC Capital Markets in Toronto. Federal Reserve officials on Thursday gave diverging views on the path of monetary policy. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Thursday that risks to the Federal Reserve's goals of price stability and full employment are now balanced. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari on Thursday said he sees mixed signals, with inflation, running around 3%, "too high," but also noted that "Some sectors of the labor market look like they're under pressure." Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said that interest rate policy should remain restrictive so it can put downward pressure on still concerning levels of inflation. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem also reiterated his view that policy is now closer to neutral than to modestly restrictive, leaving limited room to ease further without becoming overly accommodative. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, fell 0.35% to 99.14, with the euro up 0.4% at $1.1638, the highest since October 29. The euro has now broken above a downtrend channel that began against the greenback on September 17. Meanwhile European financial stability officials are debating whether to create an alternative to Federal Reserve funding backstops by pooling dollars held by non-U.S. central banks in a bid to reduce their reliance on the U.S. under the Trump administration. Against the Japanese yen , the dollar weakened 0.22% to 154.43. The U.S. currency reached a nine-month high against the Japanese currency on Wednesday after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi expressed her administration's preference for interest rates to stay low and asked for close coordination with the Bank of Japan. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama also gave a new warning on yen weakness as it approached 155 per dollar, noting "one-sided and rapid movements in the foreign exchange market". The yen on Thursday reached its lowest against the euro since 1999, when the European Union introduced the single currency. A weak yen could force the BOJ's hand, leading to a rate hike next month, though traders only see a 24% chance of a quarter-point increase to the key rate in December. In Europe, the pound gained despite data showing Britain's economy barely grew in the third quarter of the year, in part due to the drag from a cyberattack in September. Sterling was last up 0.47% at $1.3192. The Australian dollar hit a two-week high thanks to official data that showed a steeper drop in the unemployment rate from a recent four-year high, reducing the possibility of further rate cuts. It later reversed those gains and was last down 0.12% versus the greenback at $0.653. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell 3.07% to $98,752. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/dollar-eases-traders-eye-december-fed-cut-weakening-us-jobs-market-2025-11-12/

2025-11-12 06:50

IEA's current policies scenario shows no oil demand peak before 2050 LNG supply to grow 50% by 2030 US has criticized the IEA for clean energy focus IEA says target to limit temperature rise at 1.5C out of reach LONDON, Nov 12 (Reuters) - Global oil and gas demand could grow until 2050, the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday, departing from its previous expectations of a speedy transition to cleaner fuels and predicting that the world will likely fail to achieve climate goals. The IEA, the West's energy security watchdog, has been under pressure from the U.S. for a shift in recent years toward a focus on clean energy policies as President Donald Trump called on American companies to further expand oil and gas production. Sign up here. Under the Joe Biden administration, the IEA predicted that global oil demand would peak this decade and said no more investment in oil and gas was needed if the world wanted to achieve its climate target. Trump's Energy Secretary Chris Wright has called the IEA’s demand peak projections “nonsensical”. The IEA is funded by member countries, with the U.S. being the largest contributor. Its analysis and data underpin energy policies of governments and companies around the world. EXISTING POLICIES, NOT CLIMATE GOAL ASPIRATIONS In its annual World Energy Outlook published on Wednesday, the IEA predicted under a current policies scenario that oil demand will hit 113 million barrels per day by mid-century, up around 13% from 2024 consumption. It predicted that global energy demand will climb by 90 exajoules by 2035 - a 15% increase from present levels. The current policies scenario takes into account existing government policies and not aspirations to achieve climate goals. The IEA last used the "current policies scenario" for its predictions in 2019 and switched to predictions more in line with a clean energy transition and pledges of reaching net zero emissions by mid-century from 2020. This year's outlook ditched the pledges scenario. The IEA said it had planned to assess new country climate targets covering 2031-2035 but not enough countries had submitted these plans to produce a meaningful picture. In the IEA's stated policies scenario, which considers policies that have been put forward but not necessarily adopted, oil demand peaks around 2030. The IEA says its scenarios explore a range of possible outcomes under various sets of assumptions and are not forecasts. LNG CAPACITY TO SOAR Final investment decisions for new liquefied natural gas projects have surged in 2025, the report noted. Operations for about 300 billion cubic metres of new annual LNG export capacity will start by 2030, marking a 50% increase in available supply. Under the current policies scenario, the global LNG market increases from around 560 bcm in 2024 to 880 bcm in 2035 and to 1,020 bcm in 2050, driven by rising power sector demand fuelled by data centre and AI growth. Global investment in data centres is expected to reach $580 billion in 2025, the report said, noting that if achieved this would surpass the $540 billion a year spent globally on oil supply. GLOBAL TEMPERATURES RISE TO EXCEED 1.5 DEGREES CELSIUS The report also includes a net zero scenario describing a pathway to reduce global energy emissions to net zero by 2050. More than 190 countries pledged at the Paris climate talks in 2015 to try to keep the world from warming more than 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit). But the report shows the world surpassing 1.5 C of warming in all scenarios, only declining again under the net zero scenario if technology to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere is deployed. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/world-oil-gas-demand-could-grow-until-2050-iea-says-2025-11-12/

2025-11-12 06:46

FRANKFURT, Nov 12 (Reuters) - Bayer on Wednesday said it expected higher one-off burdens in 2025 from provisions for litigations and for buying out executives in its ongoing restructuring programme. In a statement, the German maker of drugs, seeds and crop chemicals said it now expects special items to drag earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) to between 3.5 billion euros ($4.08 billion) and 4 billion euros, worse than a previous forecast range of 2.5 billion-3.5 billion. Sign up here. It also reported that third-quarter adjusted EBITDA rose 20.8%, citing gains at the Crop Science division and reconciliation effects in accounting. Quarterly EBITDA, adjusted for special items, came in at 1.51 billion euros ($1.76 billion), above the 1.28 billion euros expected on average by analysts according to a poll posted on the company's website. ($1 = 0.8575 euros) https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/bayers-third-quarter-adjusted-profit-beats-market-view-2025-11-12/

2025-11-12 06:42

OPEC report says oil supply will match demand in 2026 IEA sees oil, natural gas demand growing through 2050 US House expected to vote to end government shutdown HOUSTON, Nov 12 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell more than $2 a barrel on Wednesday, weighed down by an OPEC report saying global oil supply will match demand in 2026, marking a further shift from its earlier projections of a supply deficit. Brent crude futures settled at $62.71 a barrel, down $2.45, or 3.76% after gaining 1.7% on Tuesday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude finished at $58.49 a barrel, down $2.55, or 4.18%, after climbing 1.5% in the previous session. Sign up here. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries noted that world oil supply would match demand next year due to the wider OPEC+ group's production increases. Previously, it had projected a supply deficit in 2026. "The prospect that the market is in balance is definitely what drove down prices," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group. "The market wants to believe it's balanced. I think the market took OPEC more seriously than IEA." The International Energy Agency forecast in its annual World Energy Outlook that oil and gas demand could continue to grow until 2050. That was a departure from the IEA's previous expectation that global oil demand would peak this decade, as the international body moved away from a forecasting method based on climate pledges. John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital, said the OPEC outlook comes as some crude sellers cannot find buyers. "There are cargoes going begging," Kilduff said. "The very front of the market is forming a new price curve. There's just a general sense of weakness in the U.S. economy." Analysts have previously highlighted that crude oversupply is curbing price gains. OPEC+ agreed this month to a pause in increasing its output in the first quarter of next year, after having unwound its cuts to production since August this year. US GOVERNMENT REOPENING The reopening of the U.S. government could boost consumer confidence and economic activity, spurring demand for crude oil, IG analyst Tony Sycamore wrote in a note. The U.S. Republican-controlled House of Representatives is set to vote later on Wednesday on a bill, already signed off by the Senate, that would restore funding to government agencies through January 30. The U.S. Energy Information Administration will release its outlook on Thursday. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-little-changed-markets-eye-us-government-reopening-2025-11-12/

2025-11-12 06:28

Zelenskiy seeks ouster of ministers amid $100 million procurement scheme He calls graft in Russian-hit energy sector 'absolutely unacceptable' Probe by anti-corruption authorities involves former associate KYIV, Nov 12 (Reuters) - President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called for the dismissal of two cabinet ministers on Wednesday amid a probe into an alleged $100 million corruption scheme involving a former associate that has fuelled fresh public anger at Kyiv's wartime government. Anti-corruption authorities said this week they had detained five people and identified two others still at large, suspected of involvement in the alleged plot to control procurement at nuclear agency Energoatom and other state enterprises. Sign up here. Ukraine's biggest wartime graft scandal comes as Kyiv's outmanned and underequipped troops are struggling to fend off grinding Russian advances on the battlefield. Zelenskiy, whose former business associate from his comedy career is among the suspects, said in a video address that corruption in the energy sector - weakened by regular Russian air strikes on infrastructure - was "absolutely unacceptable". Shortly after his remarks, Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko submitted a request for parliament to dismiss Energy Minister Svitlana Hrynchuk and Justice Minister German Galushchenko, Hrynchuk's predecessor in the post. Galushchenko has not been identified as one of the seven suspects announced this week, but a former advisor of Galushchenko's has been. He has denied wrongdoing. Galushchenko's voice was among those heard in a recorded conversation with some of the suspects in the case that was released by the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine, according to a source familiar with the matter. The minister did not respond to a Reuters request for additional comment. Hrynchuk said earlier said she had submitted her resignation. She has denied any wrongdoing. Svyrydenko, in a post issued later on Telegram, said her government had taken measures to remove other Energoatom officials, including a vice-president, the finance and legal director and a senior procurement official. ENERGY SECTOR ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE The probe by anti-corruption body NABU, details of which have been incrementally released in sleekly produced videos featuring the lead detective, is the latest revelation of alleged graft that has plagued Ukraine's wartime government. Showing progress in fighting corruption is central to Kyiv's bid for membership in the European Union, which officials consider key to escaping Moscow's influence. European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, speaking at a G7 meeting in Canada, told Reuters the scandal was "extremely unfortunate". She said Ukrainian authorities were "acting very forcefully." Accusations of kickbacks in the energy sector are particularly sensitive among Ukrainians, who are facing daily power outages ahead of winter as a result of massive Russian attacks on infrastructure. It could also dampen enthusiasm among donors who have provided critical assistance to Ukraine's hobbled energy sector. Speaking on local television, lawmaker Serhiy Nahorniak, a member of parliament's energy committee, said he had already been contacted by donors refusing to provide a transformer for Ukraine's battered Sumy region. "Having read the news, they said, 'We think you can afford more than one transformer,'" he told the Kyiv24 channel, without specifying who the donors were. ANTI-CORRUPTION AGENCIES STEP UP PRESSURE Earlier this year, Zelenskiy tried to limit the powers of Ukraine's anti-corruption authorities, but rowed back on those changes after rare street protests and an outcry from European partners. Political opponents accused him of trying to scuttle the activities of corruption-fighting bodies to protect his associates, which Zelenskiy strongly denies. One of the seven suspects identified by prosecutors is Timur Mindich. He is a co-owner of the influential Kvartal 95 television studio, which produced the popular sitcom that brought Zelenskiy to fame as a comedian before he launched his political career by running for president in 2019. Mindich did not immediately respond to a request for comment sent to Kvartal 95. In a statement on Wednesday, the company said it had legal ties to Mindich as a co-owner, but that he did not influence its content and the reported allegations involving him were unrelated to the company's activities. Valeriy Pekar, a prominent public intellectual, wrote on Facebook that "a Pandora's Box" was now open that would likely produce more shocking revelations. "The authorities are still underestimating the scale of the problem and are trying to slow it down," he said. "This is a mistake." https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraines-government-suspends-justice-minister-amid-energy-corruption-2025-11-12/

2025-11-12 06:08

MUMBAI, Nov 12 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee slipped on Wednesday, weighed down by dollar demand from local companies alongside modest declines in regional peers, while expectations of central bank intervention on the path to its all-time low capped losses. The rupee closed at 88.63 against the U.S. dollar, down slightly from 88.5675 in the previous session. Sign up here. Continuous dollar demand from local importers, including oil companies, has exerted pressure on the local currency over the last few weeks, traders said. Months of uncertainty over a U.S.-India trade deal have also distorted India’s FX hedging landscape, as expectations that the rupee may weaken further amplified importer hedging and kept exporters hesitant. In the wider region, Asian currencies mostly fell between 0.1% to 0.5%, while the dollar index nudged higher following a retreat triggered by signs of weakness in U.S. labour market data in the previous session. A U.S. legislature vote to reopen the country's government later in the day is in focus. If approved, that could lead to the release of key data points expected to influence the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate cut trajectory. "The jobs data will be key to whether the Fed can continue to cut and is an important element of our view that the dollar can weaken notably as we approach the end of the year," analysts at MUFG said in a note. An uptick in wagers on a rate cut next month alongside optimism over the reopening of the U.S. government helped boost stocks in Asia, with India's benchmark indexes, the BSE Sensex (.BSESN) , opens new tab and Nifty 50 (.NSEI) , opens new tab each ending xx% higher. Ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and India over a trade pact also remain a focal point for the rupee. Analysts say a breakthrough could help lift the currency substantially and spark foreign portfolio inflows into local stocks. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/rupee-looks-build-modest-momentum-trade-deal-hopes-fed-rate-cut-bets-2025-11-12/