2025-10-01 05:00

BENGALURU, Oct 1 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee will claw back some of its recent losses against the dollar on hopes the U.S. and India agree a trade deal, according to a Reuters poll of FX analysts who however said the currency could end the year weaker than they currently forecast. Most Asian currencies have gained in 2025 against a softer dollar except for the rupee , which has slid more than 3.5% as global investors pulled money from Indian markets. This is despite the economy registering robust 7.8% growth in the April-June quarter. Sign up here. Unsettled by Washington's punitive 50% tariffs on Indian goods, foreign investors have sold over $17 billion of Indian equities this year, sinking the rupee to record lows. However the Reserve Bank of India's regular interventions to smooth volatility have shielded the rupee from steeper losses. The partially convertible rupee was forecast to rise nearly 0.9% from current levels to 88.00 per dollar by end-December, and then be marginally stronger at 87.94 by end-March 2026 and trade around that level in a year, according to the median view of 38 FX analysts polled between September 26-30. "I'm still expecting some easing of the U.S.-India trade tensions, that could be a bit of a transient boost for the rupee...(but) a lot of the developments in the U.S. foreign and trade policy have meant the risks central to India are more pronounced," said Dhiraj Nim, FX strategist at ANZ Bank. "The fact domestically your growth cycle seems to be shifting in a lower gear...explains why equity flows remain weak and they could remain weak." Predictions of rupee appreciation have repeatedly backfired over the past decade with the rupee strengthening against the dollar only once in that period- in 2017. Twelve of 15 economists who responded to an extra question said the rupee is more likely to end the year weaker than their baseline forecasts, rather than stronger, highlighting risks to their outlook. "Every day if you have a flip-flop on trade policy...you don't know how the board is being laid every day. So that uncertainty is there, and your forecasts are bound to be wrong," said Aditya Vyas, chief economist at STCI Primary Dealer Limited, when asked why analysts are getting the rupee outlook wrong. Vyas predicts the rupee to hit 91.20 in a year. A separate Reuters poll conducted in September showed the Reserve Bank of India is likely to hold its key interest rate at 5.50% on October 1, though some economists said a cut to 5.25% cannot be ruled out. Analysts said if the RBI surprises markets with a rate cut, the rupee could come under further pressure. ( from the October foreign exchange poll) https://www.reuters.com/world/india/reuters-poll-indian-rupee-strengthen-to-8800-by-end-december-8794-end-march-2026-2025-10-01/

2025-10-01 04:32

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Stella Qiu And just like that the U.S. government has entered its 15th shutdown since 1981 and the second under President Donald Trump, who used the opportunity to threaten the dismissal of yet more federal workers. Sign up here. Tens of thousands have already been fired this year and over 150,000 workers are due to leave federal payrolls this week after taking a buyout, the biggest exodus in 80 years. If you're catching a U.S. flight soon, the FAA plans to furlough a quarter of its staff for the shutdown. Wednesday is also when Trump's new tariffs on big trucks, patented drugs and other items are due to take effect. Even when the government shuts down, the administration has said the tariff collections will continue. All of these are set to exacerbate concerns at the Federal Reserve about an already slowing labour market. Investors are betting that will overshadow the lack of economic data and convince the Fed to cut this month, with pricing at 96% up from 90% just a day ago. So far today, both S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures have fallen 0.5% - small moves given how much share markets have rallied this year. During the previous 21 shutdowns, the S&P has averaged 12 gains and 9 losses, with a median rise of 0.1%. All this uncertainty has been a useful excuse for gold bulls to push the theme of buying assets outside of government control, lifting the metal to another record of $3,875 an ounce. Silver and platinum are also on a tear. It's been a mixed session in Asia, with Chinese markets out for the week-long National Day holidays. Japan's Nikkei (.N225) , opens new tab dropped 1%, but Taiwan (.TWII) , opens new tab gained 1% and South Korea (.KS11) , opens new tab 0.8%. Still, judging by the muted moves in currencies and Treasuries, there appears to be little trepidation for investors apart from fretting over the data vacuum resulting from the government shutdown. No payrolls report to bet on! That puts the focus on the ADP National Employment Report later today. Forecasts are centred on a modest gain of 50,000 private-sector jobs as the labour market continues to cool. The JOLTS report on Tuesday highlighted the weakness was in hiring, with the jury out on whether that's due to AI, or tariffs or something more lasting. Before all that, there is euro zone inflation data for September which is likely to show inflation ticked up to 2.2% from 2% previously. Risks could be to the upside after German inflation came in higher than expected. A hot number would argue the European Central Bank is likely done easing this cycle and offer a reason to go long euros. Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday: -- Euro zone HICP flash inflation readings for Sept -- ISM US Manufacturing survey -- ADP private payrolls https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-view-europe-2025-10-01/

2025-10-01 04:31

TOKYO, Oct 1 (Reuters) - Japan will run a $550 billion U.S.-bound investment package agreed in Tokyo's tariff deal with Washington without any impact on the foreign exchange market, its top trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa said on Wednesday. "Based on our calculation, $550 billion is within the range where there will be no foreign exchange impact," Akazawa said, speaking to reporters at the Foreign Correspondents' Club of Japan. Sign up here. Japan and the United States signed a memorandum of understanding on the details of the package last month, which covers Japanese investments in sectors such as chips, metals, pharmaceuticals, energy and shipbuilding to be made by January 2029. Concerns over foreign exchange implications have become a major issue in South Korea's negotiations to formalise a U.S. tariff deal, which would reduce U.S. levies on Korean imports to 15% from 25% in return for South Korea's investment of $350 billion in the U.S. Akazawa said the government may use foreign exchange reserves for loans, for example by tapping a special account of the foreign exchange fund managed by the finance ministry. Japan's investment package would include equity, loans and loan guarantees from the state-owned agencies Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) and Nippon Export and Investment Insurance (NEXI). When asked about a comment he made in July that the equity component would account for just about 1-2% of the $550 billion, Akazawa clarified that the percentage was based on the past investment track records for JBIC and NEXI. He said it's up to Japan to decide the actual ratio when it starts investing. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/japans-550-billion-us-investment-package-have-no-fx-impact-top-trade-negotiator-2025-10-01/

2025-10-01 04:28

Move reflects doubts about whether equities bull run will continue Nomura has appointed new head of US rates, co-head of FX and emerging markets business Expects advisory business to have a better second half TOKYO, Oct 1 (Reuters) - Japan's Nomura Holdings (8604.T) , opens new tab plans to beef up its interest rate and currency trading operations globally, believing increased market volatility will lift demand, a senior executive said. The push reflects growing doubts around the longevity of the current equities bull run. When markets become more volatile, interest rate and foreign exchange products typically perform better, as clients hedge risk and rebalance their positions, generating higher trading flows. Sign up here. "Global equity markets are at all-time highs. U.S. markets - and within U.S. markets, a narrow set of stocks - have dominated as drivers of value," Christopher Willcox, the head of the firm's wholesale division, told Reuters in an interview. "You would be wise to assume that can't go on forever and that at some point, there's an adjustment," he said. Nomura declined to provide details on how much hiring would take place or current staff numbers for those operations. NEW HIRES But he noted that the group appointed a new head of U.S. rates in August - Moritz Westhoff, formerly of Bank of America - and a new co-head of its FX and emerging markets business, David Leigh, who joined from Deutsche Bank last November. More personnel and capital will be directed to those teams, said Willcox, a former JP Morgan Asset Management CEO who joined Nomura in 2021 and became head of wholesale a year later. Nomura's interest rate and exchange rate operations form the bulk of its macro products business, which has made up around 30% of the wholesale division's revenue in recent years. In the past business year, the division's revenue topped 1 trillion yen ($6.8 billion). The push also reflects Nomura's efforts to build more diverse sources of income, given that its wholesale unit's performance has seen wild swings along with market conditions in the past. "We view the macro business as counter-cyclical. In the global financial crisis, it was everyone's rates business that made all the money at the time when their securitised products businesses were shut down," Willcox said. The securitisation of mortgage debt into financial instruments was among the core causes of the 2007-2009 global financial crisis. Willcox also said Nomura's advisory business is likely to perform better in the second half of the year compared to the first half, as the public listing market in the U.S. has picked up and there is pent-up M&A demand in Japan. Deals and capital raisings had been held back by uncertainty caused by U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs, though this has eased somewhat with the signing of some trade agreements between the U.S. and other countries. The wholesale division does not have planned any major acquisitions along the lines of Nomura's $1.8 billion purchase of Macquarie's U.S. and European public asset management businesses. But it is looking to diversify its business lines in areas where Nomura has existing expertise to make money regardless of market ups and downs. Earlier in September, it launched a U.S. commercial real estate platform with a team hired from Barclays, which Willcox expects will contribute hundreds of millions of dollars to the top line over the next few years. "We're asking where logically we can extend pre-existing expertise into new zones," Willcox said. "And there's lots of them, it's not like we're running out of things to do." ($1 = 147.9700 yen) https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/nomura-boost-rates-fx-trading-units-sees-more-market-volatility-2025-10-01/

2025-10-01 04:13

MUMBAI, October 1 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee was flat on Wednesday with traders pointing out that a near-term floor for the currency appears to be forming near the 88.80 per U.S. dollar mark, a level marked by frequent interventions by the Reserve Bank of India. The RBI was likely active in early trading on the day as investors awaited the central bank's monetary policy decision due at 10:00 a.m. IST. Sign up here. A majority of economists polled by Reuters expect the central bank to keep rates unchanged but traders are split over whether the central bank would opt for a rate cut to support growth or choose to keep powder dry. The rupee was at 88.77 against the U.S. dollar as of 9:15 a.m. IST, little changed from its close at 88.7875 in the previous session. The currency had dipped to its all-time low of 88.80 on Tuesday but its intra-day decline was marginal with traders pointing to consistent dollar-sales from state-run banks. The rupee has been under pressure over the last month after steep U.S. tariffs on Indian exports went into effect while tightening of immigration policies sparked worries over a hit to trade, remittance and portfolio flows. Foreign investors net sold $2.7 billion of local stocks in September, extending their selling streak for a third straight month and putting 2025 on course for record foreign withdrawals, according to stock depository data. "With the dollar on the weaker side, even a small positive—such as relief on tariffs—could flip the mood and spark a sharper rupee appreciation," said Amit Pabari, managing director at FX adviosry firm CR Forex. India's benchmark equity indexes, the BSE Sensex (.BSESN) , opens new tab and Nifty 50 (.NSEI) , opens new tab were little changed on the day and the yield on the country's 10-year benchmark bond edged lower to 6.5664%. Elsewhere, the dollar index was flat at 97.82 while Asian currencies were flat to slightly lower. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/soft-line-sand-emerges-rupee-near-8880usd-rbi-interventions-2025-10-01/

2025-10-01 01:51

Antoni's nomination faced GOP concerns, no Senate hearing scheduled Antoni has been a critic of the BLS Trump fired McEntarfer, raising concerns about data reliability WASHINGTON, Sept 30 (Reuters) - The Trump administration has withdrawn its nomination of conservative economist E.J. Antoni as head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the White House said on Tuesday. President Donald Trump nominated Antoni last month to lead the bureau, which is part of the Department of Labor and produces statistics closely watched by the markets, after firing the agency's head, Erika McEntarfer, and accusing her without evidence of manipulating the bureau's figures. Sign up here. “Dr. EJ Antoni is a brilliant economist and an American patriot that will continue to do good work on behalf of our great country," a White House official said in a statement, promising the president will announce a new nominee "very soon." The Senate committee overseeing the Labor Department never scheduled a confirmation hearing, and on Tuesday, Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska said she remained concerned about Antoni's nomination. A person familiar with the nomination said several other Republicans expressed similar hesitation. CNN first reported that the administration had pulled Antoni's nomination. Antoni currently serves as chief economist at the conservative think tank the Heritage Foundation and has been a critic of the BLS, whose monthly job market and inflation report is used by a global audience of economists, investors, business leaders, public policymakers and consumers. The U.S. lurched toward a government shutdown on Tuesday as a vote to extend funding past a midnight deadline failed in the U.S. Senate. A shutdown would delay the release of the September jobs numbers, which are due out on Friday. Antoni's nomination raised concerns among economists about the quality of BLS data. "The nominee will result in a surge in demand for private label data," Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US, said in August. Alex Jacquez, the head of policy and advocacy for Groundwork Collaborative, which describes itself as fighting "to change economic policy and narratives in order to build public power," said at the time that Antoni's selection was "a clear assault on independent analysis that will have far-reaching implications for the reliability of U.S. economic data." The BLS has come under scrutiny from Republicans after Trump took issue with its data. Senator Bill Cassidy, the Republican chairman of the committee that oversees the confirmation process, said in a statement that the "status quo" is not working with the jobs data. Trump added to growing concerns about the reliability of BLS and other federal government economic data when he fired McEntarfer on August 1. Her dismissal came hours after the agency reported much weaker-than-expected job growth for July and issued an historically large revision to its employment figures for May and June. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/white-house-withdraws-antonis-nomination-next-head-bureau-labor-statistics-cnn-2025-09-30/