2025-09-30 17:08

World stocks added another $5 trillion as AI surged Dollar stabilises after torrid start to year Gold, silver and weapons stocks biggest gainers Q4 starts with U.S. government in shutdown LONDON, Sept 30 (Reuters) - After the storms earlier in the year, investors have basked in a steamy summer market melt-up that has added another $5 trillion to record-high share markets and lifted almost everything else, too. Those looking after public finances in Paris or London may disagree, but it is as if all the fiscal and trade worries have eased and investors are back to doing what they do best - buying expensive tech stocks. Sign up here. Google's (GOOGL.O) , opens new tab have leapt almost 40% during a quarter when AI darling Nvidia (NVDA.O) , opens new tab also became the world's first $4 trillion company, and China's nearest equivalent, Cambricon (688256.SS) , opens new tab, surged 120%. The headscratcher, though, is that the usual go-to asset when traders suspect trouble, gold (.XAU) , opens new tab, has jumped another 17% to fresh record highs too and silver almost 30%. Japan's yen , another safety play, has dropped but the ominous rumblings in the bond markets certainly haven't gone away either, with the collapse of another French government briefly pushing its borrowing costs above Italy's for the first time and 30-year yields hitting a record high in Japan. At the same time, implied U.S. bond volatility (.MOVE) , opens new tab has dropped to its lowest in over three years. That's a sign that markets may be learning to live with the trade war, while Moritz Kraemer, chief economist at LBBW and the former head of sovereign ratings at S&P Global, also points the stocks market's surge. Not only is the price-to-earnings ratio on U.S. stocks now in the top 2-3% in history, just 10 firms now account for 40% of the S&P 500's entire value and all at a time when government debt loads are looking increasing unsustainable. "When you also then throw in all the uncertainty around Trumponomics, that's hard to square," Kraemer said. SILVER SHINING A steadier dollar has also lowered stress levels (.DXY) , opens new tab. While still down nearly 10% for the year - the most at this stage of a year since 1989 - it is up 1% in the third quarter, largely thanks to a weaker yen. Oil prices are pretty much where they started Q3, whereas gold's record run leaves it up 46% and heading for its biggest annual jump since 1979. Silver is over 60% higher. "Gold and silver have been the big trade," said Saxo Bank's head of FX strategy John Hardy, explaining the gains have been driven by worries huge government debt loads will lead to "some form of financial repression". There has also been the ongoing rise in European weapons makers (.SXPARO) , opens new tab, up over 85% this year and leaving everything bar Chinese tech stocks (.HSTECH) , opens new tab and, wait for it, European banks, for dust. That has been driven by U.S. President Donald Trump, too, following signals he will scale back Europe's military protection forcing the region - and other NATO members - to rearm. Another small U.S. interest rate cut and Trump's attacks on the Fed meanwhile have shifted bond markets. The 30-year Treasury yield surged past 5.1% to its highest since 2007 in May, but is now back at 4.7%, while Switzerland has taken its rates back down to 0%. ARGENTINA GOT MESSY AGAIN The dollar's stabilisation leaves the euro up 13% for the year, the yen over 6% higher and the Swiss franc up 13.5%, while some of the fastest-charging emerging market currencies had been checked. Trump's grumbles at Russian President Vladimir Putin have trimmed the rouble's surge, albeit to a still world leading 32%, while gold producer Ghana's cedi has pulled back 16% this quarter having been up over 40% at the end of H2. The Hungarian forint and Czech crown have crept up again in Eastern Europe, and Brazil's real, the Mexican and Colombia's pesos and emerging market local currency debt are all enjoying double-digit gains too. Argentina has been the quarter's standout story though after a corruption scandal and thumping regional election defeat for Javier Milei's party crashed the peso and the rest of its markets. The central bank tried to prop it up but to no avail. Washington then left markets open-mouthed as it rowed in with a Mario Draghi-style whatever-it-takes promise of support. "This is a country that is undergoing a major restructuring of the entire economy," Vanguard's co-head of emerging market debt Daniel Shaykevich said. "There is a lot of risk if that programme doesn't continue as expected". There won't be much downtime in Q4. The U.S. government has just shut down for the first time in almost seven years, Trump is dishing more tariffs out, China's new 5-year economic plan is due October 20-23, Argentine midterms are three days later, and there's all the Fed, growth and AI unknowns, too. "It is a tricky market to read at the moment," Charles Schwab managing director, Richard Flynn, said. "Investors have had a really good time of it in the last five years, but as we know from history it doesn't last forever". https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-quarter-graphics-pix-2025-09-30/

2025-09-30 17:05

BOGOTA, Sept 30 (Reuters) - Inflation in Colombia likely stabilized in September compared with the same month last year, but expectations for the remainder of this year and for 2026 have risen again, moving further from the central bank's target, a Reuters poll revealed on Tuesday. According to the median forecast of 21 analysts, consumer prices in September are expected to rise by 0.23%. This is in line with the 0.24% increase in September of last year and up from 0.19% in August of this year. Sign up here. Forecasts for the month ranged from 0.14% to 0.34%. September's inflation was likely driven by a rise in the prices of housing rentals, public utilities, food, education and hotel and restaurant services, analysts said. "A rebound is expected in the price of public utilities, especially gas, while electricity prices could end their recent streak of declines," said Jackeline Pirajan, chief analyst for Scotiabank in Colombia. "A contribution from education-related items is also expected." If the poll's median forecast is met, 12-month inflation through September would stand at 5.10%. This rate is stable compared with the period ending in August, but remains far from the central bank's 3% target. National statistics agency DANE will publish its official September inflation report on October 7. According to the survey, year-end inflation expectations for 2025 have increased to 5.03% from 4.95% in the previous poll, which would mark the fifth consecutive year the target has been missed. For the end of 2026, inflation expectations increased to 4.05% from 3.99% in the last survey, while the forecast for the end of 2027 remained stable at 3.60%. Persistent consumer price pressures have led the central bank to hold its benchmark interest rate at 9.25% since April, the only month this year it was lowered. A Reuters poll earlier this week indicated the monetary authority will likely hold the rate steady again later on Tuesday. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/colombia-inflation-seen-023-september-2025-2026-forecasts-rise-again-2025-09-30/

2025-09-30 16:25

LONDON, Sept 30 (Reuters) - Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden said on Tuesday that a recent climb in headline inflation was unlikely to last and there were risks to the economy if interest rates are kept high for too long. Speaking shortly after a colleague on the Monetary Policy Committee, Catherine Mann, warned that inflation might be stuck at a high level, Breeden took a contrasting tone in her speech. Sign up here. "Holding policy too tight for too long comes with costs to output and employment, which could then pull inflation below target," Breeden said in a speech at Cardiff Business School. She was among the majority of MPC members who at the BoE's September meeting voted to keep borrowing costs on hold at 4% after voting to reduce them by 25 basis points in August in a narrow 5-4 vote by the MPC. Breeden said the recent "hump" in inflation was unlikely to lead to additional inflationary pressure. The BoE expects inflation to hit 4% in September before falling only slowly to its 2% target in 2027. But it is also worried about a slowdown in economic growth. "I do not see evidence that the disinflation process is veering off-track. Instead it remains my central case that the 'hump' will prove just a bump in the road," Breeden said. However, she said she would focus on how businesses are pricing goods and services, saying that there were still some signs that suggested that the pricing power of firms was consistent with a "high inflation regime". Also on Tuesday, BoE Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli said central banks should be careful about assuming that inflation shocks are temporary. Last week, BoE policymaker Megan Greene warned that price growth in Britain required a cautious approach to further reductions to borrowing costs. But Governor Andrew Bailey reiterated his view that rates would fall. https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/keeping-interest-rates-high-too-long-is-risky-boes-breeden-says-2025-09-30/

2025-09-30 12:48

NEW DELHI, Sept 30 (Reuters) - India's trade pact with four European nations, including Switzerland and Norway, will take effect from Wednesday, boosting exports of textiles, leather and food products while attracting investments, a government statement said. Under the Trade and Economic Partnership Agreement , opens new tab, signed last March after nearly 16 years of negotiations, the European Free Trade Association - comprising Switzerland, Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein - will cut tariffs on 92.2% of tariff lines for India, while New Delhi will offer concessions on 82.7% of tariff lines covering 95.3% of EFTA exports. Sign up here. With a population of 13 million and combined GDP of more than $1 trillion, the EFTA nations are the world's ninth largest merchandise trader and its fifth largest in commercial services. The deal comes as Prime Minister Narendra Modi pursues a trade pact with the European Union and seeks an agreement with the U.S., after President Donald Trump doubled tariffs on Indian goods up to 50% from August 27 over Russian oil purchases. The agreement with EFTA goes beyond goods and services, aiming to attract foreign direct investments in India of $100 billion over 15 years and to create one million jobs, the commerce ministry said. India has protected its sensitive sectors such as dairy, soya, coal and sensitive agricultural products. India is the EFTA's fifth-largest trading partner , opens new tab after the European Union, the United States, Britain and China, with total two-way trade touching $25 billion in 2023, according to government estimates. The pact is also expected to spur Swiss investment as it slashes tariffs on exports from chocolates to watches and machinery. India's nearly $4 trillion economy, 1.4 billion-strong market, and annual growth of about 7% have attracted European firms seeking alternatives to China, amid U.S. tariff pressure. India expects its firms to benefit from the pact, with no change in effective duty on gold imports and protections retained for sensitive sectors such as pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and key farm products, the statement added. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indias-trade-pact-with-efta-bloc-take-effect-wednesday-2025-09-30/

2025-09-30 12:44

BRUSSELS, Sept 30 (Reuters) - France, Portugal and Spain will hold talks in the coming weeks on how to speed up power interconnector projects, Portugal's energy minister told Reuters, as the country pushes to improve electricity links following a huge blackout in April. Spain and Portugal's poor electricity connections to the rest of Europe were highlighted by the countries' unprecedented power outage in April, which experts said could have been less severe if the Iberian Peninsula had more interconnectors to exchange power with other countries. Sign up here. "After the blackout, we have put extra pressure on the European Commission and on France, together with Spain, and as a result of that contact the French government has asked for a meeting," Maria da Graca Carvalho said in an interview. She said the talks would take place in early October. Carvalho said she was hopeful France was willing to speed up projects, particularly after the European Investment Bank said it will support the planned Bay of Biscay power interconnector project between Spain and France with 1.6 billion euros ($1.88 billion). "They are good signs," she said, adding that an environmental assessment of the Bay of Biscay link must be completed before the project could move ahead. France's energy ministry did not respond to a request for comment. Spain's energy ministry declined to comment on the meeting. Grid and power plant operators have traded barbs over who was to blame for Iberia's massive blackout in April, while the EU investigation into its cause is still ongoing. The European network of transmission system operators ENTSO-E is due to publish part of its investigation on Friday, confirming the conditions in the network when the outage began. Works to strengthen an existing interconnector between France and Spain are expected to wrap this year, while the Bay of Biscay link is set to be completed by 2028. Spain and Portugal have previously said France has held up new interconnectors. French grid operator RTE has assessed two additional links with Spain over the Pyrenees, but noted that the projects' beneficiaries would be located outside of France. Iberia has just 3% of its electricity capacity connected to European neighbours, far below the EU's target for countries to reach 15% by 2030. ($1 = 0.8517 euros) https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/france-portugal-spain-hold-talks-speeding-up-power-links-2025-09-30/

2025-09-30 12:37

LONDON, Sept 30 (Reuters) - Glencore has promoted its top gas and power trader Maxim Kolupaev to lead the firm's entire oil and gas trading division when current head Alex Sanna steps down at the end of 2025, according to a Glencore memo to staff seen by Reuters. Gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) trading often generate as much profit for trading houses as their traditional oil and fuel businesses as global LNG production grows and Europe replaces Russian gas with U.S. LNG. Sign up here. Kolupaev will lead the division in its next phase of growth, Glencore Chief Executive Gary Nagle said in the memo. Glencore is one of the biggest oil and gas trading houses in the world alongside Vitol, Trafigura, Mercuria and Gunvor. It increased its traded volumes to 3.7 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude, fuel and gas in 2024 from 3.3 million bpd in 2023. Volumes were still below the 4.8 million bpd Glencore marketed in 2019 and it trails rival Trafigura with 6.8 million bpd and Vitol, the world's largest trading house, with 7.2 million bpd. Kolupaev has been with Glencore for 22 years, starting in the United Kingdom before becoming the global head of oil and more recently the head of LNG, gas and power. Sanna steps down after 19 years with Glencore. He has been the head of trading for the past 6 years. (This story has been corrected to clarify that Kolupaev began at Glencore in UK, not Russia, in paragraph 7) https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/glencore-promotes-head-lng-lead-oil-gas-trading-memo-shows-2025-09-30/