2025-09-30 07:01

EIB targets six months or less on defence approvals as part of security push Lender wants to boost competitiveness in second climate 'roadmap' Bank's president expected to double spend on adapting to climate change by 2030 LONDON, Sept 30 (Reuters) - The European Investment Bank has cut the decision making time for security and defence projects to six months and expects to see the sector's share of total spending meet or exceed a 3.5% target in 2025 before growing further, its president told Reuters. The European Union has been looking to mobilise up to 800 billion euros ($938 billion) in defence spending across the region by 2029, under U.S. pressure to fund more of its own security in the face of threats from Russia. Sign up here. After committing earlier this year to spend 3.5% of its 100 billion-euro lending volume on defence and security, and broaden the range of eligible investments, Nadia Calvino said reducing the time it takes to make an investment decision was crucial. "We are really reducing the average time to market in the area of security and defence to around six months, and that is remarkable," said Calvino, president of the EU's lending arm which is owned by EU governments. Calvino said no decision had yet been taken on the bank's overall lending number for 2026 - pegged at 85 billion euros according to its three-year draft plan - but that the pipeline on security and defence projects was "very robust." "We are confident that we will ... meet that 2025 objective, or maybe even exceed that, and I would expect that the volumes will continue to grow in coming years," she said. Asked about the lender's possible role in the development of a "drone wall" that would provide advanced detection, tracking and interception capabilities along the bloc's eastern flank, Calvino said she was waiting for concrete estimates and proposals. "We are already financing projects in the area of drone manufacturing, and in particular drones that destroy drones." One example of a quick turnaround in defence was the bank's 450 million-euro ($528 million) loan for a military campus in Lithuania to strengthen NATO defence capabilities, which was presented in February and signed in June, Calvino said. CLIMATE THE MAIN FOCUS As well as defence, the bank also aimed to target a six-month turnaround when assessing venture capital and venture debt for technology startups, she added. "These are processes, these are decisions where time is of the essence - it marks the difference between successfully supporting a startup or maybe not being able to continue their project further." That was also true in the bank's core focus area of climate change, which accounts for the majority of its spending, she said. As part of its latest climate roadmap, which received unanimous support from shareholders, the EIB would double the amount of money it invests in adapting to climate change to 30 billion euros by 2030, she said. The plan for increased spending follows a summer of record extreme heat in Europe. In November, Brazil will host the COP30 global climate conference. Multilateral efforts to combat climate change have been pressured by U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to exit a deal to rein in global warming. "The top priority for the European Investment Bank Group is consolidating its role as the climate bank," said Calvino. "While others are pushing back, Europe is moving forward." ($1 = 0.85 euro) https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/cop/eib-president-says-she-expects-share-security-defence-spending-rise-further-2026-2025-09-30/

2025-09-30 06:52

Gold up over 10% so far this month Trump imposes additional tariffs Silver on track for best month since July 2020 Sept 30 (Reuters) - Gold fell on Tuesday as investors booked profits after prices hit a record high earlier in the session, while concerns about a looming U.S. government shutdown and increased bets of a Federal Reserve rate cut limited losses. Spot gold fell 0.7% to $3,805.99 per ounce, as of 0723 GMT after rising 1% to hit a record high of $3,871.45 during Asia hours. Bullion has risen 10.5% so far in September, and is on track for its biggest monthly percentage gain since July 2020. Sign up here. U.S.goldfuturesforDecemberdeliveryfell0.6%to$3,833.40. Swissquote external analyst Carlo Alberto De Casa said gold has pared gains on profit-taking after rising as much as 1% during Asia hours and "so far this is just a technical correction and we are not talking about an inversion." U.S. President Donald Trump and his Democratic opponents appeared to make little progress at a White House meeting aimed at heading off a government shutdown that could disrupt a wide range of services as soon as Wednesday. "The risk of shutdown for gold is positive because it means uncertainty and that the Federal Reserve doesn't have clear data because that could arrive late," De Casa added. Markets expect an over 91% chance of a 25-basis-point reduction at the Fed's October meeting, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. Investors now await a slew of U.S. data including Friday's non-farm payrolls for further clues on the economy's health. The U.S. Labor Department confirmed on Monday that its statistics agency would suspend data releases, including the closely-watched monthly employment report in the event of a partial government shutdown. UBS expects gold could rise as high as $4,200/oz by mid-2026 in its bull case scenario, the bank said in a note on Tuesday. Gold, viewed as a safe-haven asset in times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty, tends to do well in a low-interest rate environment. Shares of China's Zijin Gold International (2259.HK) , opens new tab rose 66% in their Hong Kong trading debut, after the company raised $3.2 billion in an initial public offering (IPO), the largest deal of its kind globally in 2025. Elsewhere, spot silver lost 1.7% to $46.14 per ounce but has climbed 16.3% so far this month. Platinum fell 3.1% to $1,551.80 and palladium lost 3% to $1,230.19. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-hits-record-high-heads-best-month-14-years-safe-haven-rush-2025-09-30/

2025-09-30 06:47

RBA keeps cash rate at 3.60% amid inflation concerns Swaps imply 36% chance of November cut, 50% for December Australian dollar rises, bond futures fall after RBA decision SYDNEY, Sept 30 (Reuters) - Australia's central bank on Tuesday left its cash rate steady as expected at 3.60%, saying recent data suggested inflation might be higher than forecast in the third quarter and that the economic outlook remained uncertain. Wrapping up a two-day policy meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia said the board judged it was appropriate to remain cautious on policy, but was well-placed to respond to international developments. Sign up here. The more cautious commentary from the central bank prompted markets to further trim bets on rate cuts this year and for some analysts to even call a possible end to the current policy easing cycle if conditions remain upbeat. Markets had seen scant chance of a further easing this week after a strong second quarter GDP report and a high monthly inflation reading that argued for a measured pace of policy easing. Speaking to reporters after the decision, Governor Michele Bullock said the central bank would remain data dependent and by November have quarterly inflation data, a labour market report and updated economic forecasts, as well as more forward looking indicators to decide on policy. "What we are focusing on is an interest rate path that will deliver us inflation sustainably in the band. That could mean a couple more reductions. It might not. I don't know at this point and we will look at all this again in November." The central bank said recent data, while partial and volatile, suggests that inflation in the third quarter may be higher than expected due to sticky prices in market services, adding that it was appropriate to remain cautious. The Australian dollar rose 0.4% at $0.66 after the meeting, while three-year bond futures fell 4 ticks to 96.40. Swaps now imply around a 36% probability of a rate cut at the next policy meeting in November from 55% previously, while a move in December is about 50% priced in from 70%. CAUTIOUS TURN The RBA has so far adopted a gradual and cautious approach to policy easing, having cut rates in February, May and August after assessing inflation data for each quarter. It has said the pace of further policy easing depends on the flow of data. The often volatile monthly readings on inflation suggest the quarterly outcome could surprise on the upside. Meanwhile, the economy grew at the fastest annual pace in almost two years in the second quarter as consumption picked up after a long fallow period. Employment growth has slowed but the jobless rate hovered at a historical low of 4.2%. The central bank judged the labour market was close to full employment but there is still tightness in some industries. "The post-meeting statement is a little more hawkish than we’d expected and heightens the risk evident after the August monthly CPI indicator that the November meeting passes without a rate cut," said Adam Boyton, head of Australian economics at ANZ. "Absent a 'shock', the tone of today's post-meeting statement also suggests that we are quite close to the end of the easing cycle." The central bank had forecast headline inflation, which ran at 2.1% last quarter, to pick up to 3.1% by the middle of next year, as electricity rebates fade, but core inflation is expected to stay anchored around 2.6% over the coming years. Bullock said she judged the current cash rate as "a little bit" restrictive. Financial conditions have eased since the beginning of the year, although the full effects are still taking time to flow through, she added. "A downside Q3 inflation surprise is needed for the RBA to cut in November," said analysts at Citi Australia, noting unexpected jobs weakness could also provide a catalyst. "Overall, we expect one more 25bp cut in February 2026. However, we note risks that the RBA could be done in this cycle." https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/australias-central-bank-holds-rates-steady-cautious-inflation-2025-09-30/

2025-09-30 06:43

LAGOS, Sept 30 (Reuters) - The offices of Nigeria's oil regulator and state oil company were shuttered by a nationwide strike launched by the national oil workers' union after Dangote refinery dismissed more than 800 of its members, union officials said. The strike, begun on Monday, has escalated tension in Africa’s top oil producer, with a legal and industrial standoff that could disrupt regional fuel supply and trade, particularly to countries relying on refined products from Nigeria. Sign up here. The workers at the privately-owed Dangote Oil Refinery, Africa's largest, were fired last Thursday for unionising, the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) said in a statement on Friday. Dangote oil refinery officials said at the time the dismissals were part of a staff reorganisation and accused those affected of acts of sabotage. Talks mediated by government officials on Monday failed to resolve the dispute, and the refinery secured a court injunction barring the union from obstructing crude and gas supply to it. PENGASSAN said the notice had not been formally served on the union. "Court orders are served via bailiffs, not through social media," union executive Lumumba Okugbawa said. The strike has led to closure of the offices of the NNPC Limited, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA). In a statement on Sunday, the regulator called for an amicable end to the dispute. NNPC Limited told Reuters it was committed to maintaining a safe, stable and inclusive operating environment. "We are closely monitoring the situation and remain engaged with relevant stakeholders to encourage a constructive resolution," spokesperson Andy Odeh said in a statement. Analysts fear that if the situation worsens and other unions were to join, the action could paralyse activities at oil fields, disrupt the free flow of products and cause chaos at petrol stations when trucks are grounded. The refinery owned by Africa's richest man Aliko Dangote began operations this year and has been touted as a game-changer for Nigeria’s fuel imports. The dispute threatens to undermine investor confidence and raises questions about labour protections in Nigeria’s private sector, however. https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/nigerian-oil-union-launches-nationwide-strike-after-dangote-refinery-fires-2025-09-30/

2025-09-30 06:29

HANOI, Sept 30 (Reuters) - Vietnam's most devastating storm this year brought heavy rains that triggered floods across its north, disrupting flights and train services with the capital, Hanoi, where schools were closed and many homes inundated, authorities said on Tuesday. The death toll rose to 26, with 22 missing, state media said a day after Typhoon Bualoi made landfall in northern central Vietnam, bringing huge sea swells, strong winds and downpours. Sign up here. "Water is flowing into my living room," said 49-year-old Hanoi resident Hoang Quoc Uy. "I've never seen anything like this before." Flag carrier Vietnam Airlines cancelled or rescheduled several flights with the capital's Noi Bai international airport "for the safety of passengers," it said. "The weather condition in Hanoi is evolving in a complicated manner, with stormy rains that affect visibility and operations," it added. State-run Vietnam Railways Corp has also suspended most of its services between Hanoi and the business hub of Ho Chi Minh City, a company official said. Rainfall exceeded 300 mm (12 inches) in several parts of Vietnam over the past 24 hours, the national weather agency said, as it warned of a risk of landslides and flash flooding. Thunder and lightning accompanied persistent downpours that flooded streets in downtown Hanoi and paralysed traffic in many areas. Photographs on state media showed cars and motorbikes marooned in the water, many with dead engines. Several schools closed by mid-day. Villages in northern central Vietnam were flooded with no road access or power, state media said, while waters rose close to the roofs of houses in villages in Nghe An province, images on state broadcaster VTV showed. "All of my belongings have been damaged, all gone," Ngo Thi Loan, a 56-year-old in the province, told Reuters, adding that the typhoon blew off the roof of her home, leaving it half-a- metre deep in flood water. The government said 105 people were injured and more than 135,000 homes damaged, most of them in the provinces of Nghe An and Ha Tinh, while more than 25,500 hectares (63,000 acres) of rice and crops had been inundated. With a long coastline facing the South China Sea, Vietnam is prone to typhoons that often also bring heavy rains that cause severe flooding. Last week, Bualoi killed at least 10 in the Philippines. https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/typhoon-bualoi-death-toll-rises-19-vietnam-2025-09-30/

2025-09-30 06:24

Oil majors cut buybacks and costs in face of expected downturn But boards invest in big-ticket mega oil and gas projects Oil supply growth expected to go into reverse by 2030 LONDON, Sept 30 (Reuters) - While energy companies are retrenching in the face of a bleak near-term outlook for oil and gas, their investment plans suggest they believe the environment will shift dramatically by the end of the decade. Energy companies' spending plans are typically a good gauge of their confidence in the sector’s long-term outlook, given that it takes years to develop an oil or gas field and many more years before profits from these investments show up. Sign up here. Accurately forecasting the oil and gas sector’s fortunes many years out has become particularly tricky in recent years. On the one hand, the energy transition has raised questions about future demand for fossil fuels. On the other, governments' renewed focus on energy security in the wake of the 2022 war in Ukraine has revived investment appetite, leading companies such as BP (BP.L) , opens new tab and Shell (SHEL.L) , opens new tab to reverse their strategies away from renewable energy and back toward their core oil and gas businesses. The top western energy companies’ current investment and spending plans suggest bullish arguments about the future of fossil fuels are gaining ground, even as prices are expected to fall in the near term. SHORT-TERM CAUTION Price forecasts for crude in the next two years are pretty gloomy, as many agencies and investors anticipate a significant oil glut due to increased production from OPEC and non-OPEC nations. The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects Brent prices to fall from an average of $68 per barrel this year to $51 in 2026. On top of that, an expected surge in liquefied natural gas capacity in the coming years, emanating primarily from the U.S. and Qatar, is set to put pressure on another key growth market for the sector. Oil and gas companies have responded to the darkening outlook by slashing jobs, costs and – perhaps most notably – buybacks. The majors had increasingly been using share repurchases to attract investment in recent years. The scale of buybacks in the sector rose sharply after the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly in the wake of the energy price rally that followed Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The top five western energy majors - BP, Chevron (CVX.N) , opens new tab, Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) , opens new tab, Shell and TotalEnergies (TTEF.PA) , opens new tab – repurchased a total of $61.5 billion of shares in 2024, more than the $51 billion paid out as dividends, according to Reuters calculations. However, that trend has now stalled. TotalEnergies last week announced , opens new tab it will slow the pace of its share buyback programme from around $2 billion per quarter this year to a range of $750 million to $1.5 billion per quarter next year. The company cited "economic and geopolitical uncertainties” and needing “to retain room to maneuver" as justifications for the move. Chevron and BP slowed their buyback pace earlier this year. The reduced share repurchases are accompanied by deep cost cuts. Chevron is in the midst of a $3 billion cost-cutting drive by 2026 that will see it lay off up to 20% of its workforce, around 9,000 people. U.S. rival ConocoPhillips (COP.N) , opens new tab plans to cut as much as 25% of its workforce. BP announced earlier this year plans to cut over 7,000 jobs, which was followed last month by a further cost review that came on top of a $4–5 billion cost-cutting target for 2023–2027. Exxon and Shell are also trimming expenses aggressively. These cuts are the deepest the sector has seen in recent history, including during the pandemic, pointing to a heightened focus on competitiveness and a rising bearishness about the near-term outlook for energy prices. LONG-TERM FORTUNE But look beyond the next few years, and Big Oil appears much more sanguine, evidenced by these companies’ willingness to invest in new mega projects and make huge acquisitions. BP on Monday announced it will go ahead with developing a $5 billion offshore drilling project in the Gulf of Mexico. The Tiber-Guadalupe project, expected to begin oil and gas production in 2030, will include a floating platform with the capacity to produce 80,000 barrels of crude per day. TotalEnergies on Monday announced it had acquired onshore U.S. gas producing assets. Exxon, the largest of the western majors, has kept its capital spending plans for 2025 steady at $27-29 billion as it continues to increase output in U.S. shale basins and in Guyana. It also said in August that it was ready to take advantage of lower oil prices and make acquisitions. Underpinning this confidence are forecasts that the upcoming strong growth in oil production will go into reverse by the end of the decade. Indeed, the International Energy Agency expects world oil supply to grow by 4.5 million bpd between 2024 and 2028 to 107.6 million bpd before stagnating in 2029 and declining by 400,000 bpd in 2030. On top of the slower growth, the natural decline of oilfields means companies need to invest meaningfully simply to keep their production steady. Of course, oil demand growth is also expected to decelerate in the coming years, partly because of the adoption of electric vehicles. A faster than anticipated slowdown in consumption could weigh on oil prices, even if supply growth slows. But for now, companies’ willingness to look past a looming downturn suggests boards believe crude prices will rise by the end of the decade and remain sufficiently elevated into the next decade to pay back their big-ticket investments in new fields. Want to receive my column in your inbox every Monday and Thursday, along with additional energy insights and links to trending stories? Sign up for my Power Up newsletter here. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), , opens new tabyour essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI , opens new tab can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X. , opens new tab https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/big-oil-is-long-term-bullish-despite-short-term-gloom-bousso-2025-09-30/