2026-02-04 22:20

Feb 4 (Reuters) - Argentina and the United States signed an agreement on critical minerals on Wednesday to strengthen and secure supply chains, the Argentine foreign ministry said. The ministry said in a statement that the initiative is expected to drive significant economic growth for Argentina. The country's mining exports reached $6.04 billion in 2025, the ministry said. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentina-signs-critical-minerals-deal-with-us-foreign-ministry-says-2026-02-04/

2026-02-04 22:05

ORLANDO, Florida, Feb 4 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks mostly fell on Wednesday, slammed by worries that the artificial intelligence revolution could pose an existential threat to businesses across many sectors, while oil rose sharply on reports that planned U.S.-Iran talks may collapse. More on that below. In my column today I look at the recent wild ride in gold, which has seen the biggest one-day price drop since 1983, biggest rise since 2008, and highest volatility on record. This isn't what buyers of the world's safest asset signed up for, is it? Sign up here. If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today. Today's Key Market Moves Today's Talking Points * AI clouds darken AI optimism is turning to disruption fear. U.S. and world markets are sliding on growing concern that artificial intelligence will have a significantly detrimental impact on a range of software-intensive businesses, from finance to law and coding. The idea that AI's rising tide will lift all boats is evaporating. Investors will have to pick winners and eschew losers, and determine where AI will enhance and where it will disrupt. As this is a brave new world, it's really a guessing game. The only certainty? More volatility. * Global growth tracking 3% It's not just the U.S. - the latest PMI figures from around the world show business activity has got off to a solid start this year. Manufacturing, in particular, is accelerating, and strong new orders suggest this momentum can be sustained. There are pockets of concern, namely sluggish employment and high prices, and Europe is underperforming. But overall, output is holding up well and is consistent with global GDP growth of 3.0%, according to JPMorgan economists. That's decent. * Fed dove clips own wings Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated last week that no one on the rate-setting FOMC has a rate hike as their next move "base case". But the hard growth and activity data, financial conditions, and above-target inflation all suggest further easing shouldn't really be anyone's base case either. To be sure, markets aren't contemplating a hike at all, and rates futures pricing still implies two 25 bps cuts this year. But if arch-dove Governor Stephen Miran is softening his stance a bit, calling for 100 bps of cuts this year rather than 150 bps a month ago, how close might the FOMC consensus be to flipping? What could move markets tomorrow? Want to receive Trading Day in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for my newsletter here. Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles , opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/global-markets-trading-day-graphic-2026-02-04/

2026-02-04 21:04

Korean retail investors favour U.S. stocks despite local market gains Structural outflows to keep undermining won unless major policy changes occur Retail investors hold record $171 billion in overseas stocks SEOUL, Feb 5 (Reuters) - South Korea's efforts to stabilise its currency face a major obstacle at home - the record appetite of its retail investors for U.S. stocks that is fuelling dollar demand as the won languishes at 17-year lows. The greenback's persistent strength against the won over the past year has complicated Seoul's plans to invest $350 billion in U.S. industries under a trade deal with Washington, amid concerns additional outflows could weaken the won , opens new tab further. Sign up here. Those pressures have only been worsened by an army of Korean retail investors, nicknamed "ants", who are snubbing Seoul's efforts to keep money at home and doubling down on their U.S. stock investments. Kang Hye‑young, one such investor, did just that late last year. When she learnt South Korea would offer tax breaks to investors who sold U.S. stocks last year, she did the exact opposite and bought more dollars to invest in American shares. "It was an opportunity, are you kidding me?" Kang said, describing how she purchased 8 million won ($5,555) worth of dollars in the last week of 2025 so she could target American tech shares like Alphabet or Apple. Underpinning Korea's American stock fixation is a belief that Wall Street still has the best-performing companies and a lack of faith in domestic firms, with many investors frustrated by years of poor share performance at home. The bet on foreign equities has forced authorities to rethink how to stabilise the won as it trades near levels unseen since the global financial crisis, exposing the limits of existing policy tools. PLEA TO BRING MONEY HOME In a plea to bring money home, South Korea late last year announced plans to exempt capital gains tax on overseas stocks if investors sold them and reinvested proceeds in domestic stocks within a one-year window. Authorities also encouraged exporters to convert more foreign earnings into won and pushed the National Pension Fund to sell dollars. Despite all that, the won has weakened 0.9% so far this year to 1,451.8. Korean retail investors held a record of nearly $171 billion in overseas stocks as of January 29, according to the Korea Securities Depository data, back above $170 billion for the first time in three months and adding to pressure on the won. Last month, net purchases of U.S. stocks by domestic investors hit $5.0 billion, more than double December's $1.9 billion. The splurge on U.S. stocks comes even as the local Kospi benchmark almost doubled in the past year, becoming the world's best-performing equity index. Seong Ki-yong, a strategist at Societe Generale in Hong Kong, noted, however, that Korean investors' long-standing preference for U.S. stocks remains intact, despite Kospi gains. "That's why a Kospi rally keeps accelerating a switch by investors to U.S. equities." Bank of Korea Governor Rhee Chang-yong said last month that authorities were reviewing the impact of the package of measures introduced to support the won in the last week of 2025. "We can't say for certain that the FX stabilisation measures implemented at the end of last year were completely ineffective. However, the process did reveal some weaknesses," Rhee said. A finance ministry official also said at the time they had verified patterns showing the main driver of the won's weakness was domestic demand for dollars, not foreign speculators. Dollar deposits held by local residents hit a record $119.43 billion in December, marking their sharpest ever monthly increase, BOK data showed. Investors also appeared unfazed when U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent offered rare verbal support for the won, last month saying it "was not in line with Korea's strong economic fundamentals." CAPITAL CONTROLS? Analysts argue that investor behaviour is weakening the influence South Korean officials once held over the foreign exchange market, when the won traded mostly through dozens of authorised local institutions. Some officials have floated the idea of reintroducing capital controls to support the won, but this runs counter to Seoul's simultaneous effort to relax rules for offshore won transactions and internationalise the currency to secure a developed-market status from MSCI Inc. Citigroup economist Kim Jin-wook says outflows could maintain downward pressure on the won unless Seoul makes major changes to the National Pension Service's foreign exchange strategies given its growing portfolio of overseas shares. "The government-led discussion for NPS' new framework could provide a roadmap for flexible FX hedges as well as dollar-denominated bond issuance in the first half," Kim said, noting policymakers could slow the fund's overseas investment or sell more dollar forwards to underpin the won. Underscoring those policy limitations, Yoon Hyun-jung, a 44-year-old retail investor, sold some shares in U.S.-listed Nuscale Power Corp. (SMR.N) , opens new tab late last year to avoid the 22% capital gains tax, only to buy more U.S. shares this year. "I sleep better having them," said Yoon. "Domestic stocks kind of feel more like some sort of bubble." https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/koreas-fight-fx-stability-undermined-by-its-wall-street-mania-2026-02-04/

2026-02-04 20:06

States claim USDOT funding halt is political retaliation Hearing set for Friday by Judge Jeanette Vargas Existing tunnel failure could impact 200,000 daily commuters WASHINGTON, Feb 4 (Reuters) - A U.S. judge will hold a hearing on Friday on the emergency request by New York and New Jersey to force the restoration of funding for the $16 billion Hudson River tunnel before construction is set to halt on Friday. The states, which filed suit late on Tuesday, have asked for a temporary restraining order that would bar the U.S. Transportation Department from withholding funding for the project approved during the administration of President Joe Biden that is the linchpin of rail travel between New York and New Jersey. Sign up here. The lawsuit filed by New York Attorney General Letitia James and Acting New Jersey Attorney General Jennifer Davenport said there is overwhelming evidence that USDOT's reason for suspending funding was to punish New York's Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries "in retaliation for their refusal" to accept President Donald Trump's budget. U.S. District Judge Jeanette Vargas ordered a hearing for Friday at 1 p.m. ET and said the Justice Department must file any opposition to the states' request by 11 a.m. on Friday. On Monday, the Gateway Development Commission, which is managing the project, filed suit after saying it will be forced to halt construction on Friday without funding being restored, putting about 1,000 workers out of work and after $2 billion has been spent. The White House and USDOT did not comment, but the White House last week said Democrats "are standing in the way of a deal for the Gateway Tunnel Project by refusing to negotiate with the Trump administration" on immigration issues. Trump's Republican administration has repeatedly targeted major transit and infrastructure projects in Democratic-led states. Any failure of the existing Hudson tunnel, which was built in 1910 and heavily damaged by Hurricane Sandy in 2012, would hobble commuting in the metropolitan area that produces 10% of the country's economic output and is used by over 200,000 travelers and 425 trains daily. The initiative, which received about $15 billion in federal support, involves repairs to an existing tunnel and the construction of a new one for passenger railroad Amtrak and state commuter lines between New Jersey and Manhattan. Trump, a former New York City real estate developer, refused to approve funding for the tunnel project in his first term. The Trump administration is also trying to kill Manhattan's congestion pricing program aimed at reducing traffic and raising billions for mass transit. https://www.reuters.com/world/us-judge-sets-friday-hearing-suit-restore-new-york-tunnel-funding-2026-02-04/

2026-02-04 19:49

Feb 4 (Reuters) - Danish jewellery maker Pandora (PNDORA.CO) , opens new tab will start selling platinum-plated versions of its best-selling bracelets, the company said on Wednesday, as it tries to limit the impact of a historic surge in silver prices that has driven up costs. "With this innovation, we can navigate the new realities of raw material costs while offering consumers precious metal jewellery that is exceptionally well-suited for everyday wear," said Pandora CEO Berta de Pablos-Barbier, who started in the job in January. Sign up here. Pandora, which sells silver charm bracelets starting at $70, as well as lab-grown diamond jewellery made at its own factories in Thailand, is also facing pressure from U.S. tariffs and lower-income consumers cutting back on spending. The company said it expects organic revenue to increase by a maximum of 2% this year, and at worst to decline by 1%. "The macroeconomic outlook for 2026 and the general consumer environment is associated with elevated uncertainty," the group said in a statement. It expects an operating margin (EBIT margin) of between 21% and 22% for 2026, down from 23.9% in 2025. The company said the price of silver, its primary raw material, had more than doubled in 2025. Pandora said the decline in the operating profit margin would be most visible in the first quarter, with a gradual recovery over the rest of the year. Pandora reported fourth-quarter organic sales growth of 4%, down from 11% a year earlier, but in line with analyst estimates in a company-provided poll. Pandora said it would initially use a third party for its platinum-plated products before increasingly using its factories in Thailand and Vietnam. The platinum plating would coat a metal-alloy "Evershine" base that Pandora already uses for its gold-plated products. A spokesperson declined to say what metals Evershine, a trademarked material, contains. https://www.reuters.com/business/pandora-sees-2026-organic-revenue-growth-1-2-2026-02-04/

2026-02-04 19:27

WASHINGTON, Feb 4 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump said on Wednesday there was "not much" doubt in his mind that benchmark U.S. interest rates will be lowered by the Federal Reserve. Trump said in an interview with NBC News he believes his choice to lead the Fed, Kevin Warsh, understands the U.S. president's preference for lower rates. Sign up here. Asked if Warsh understood that Trump wanted him to lower interest rates, Trump said: "I think he does, but I think he wants to anyway." He added: "I mean, if he came in and said, 'I want to raise them' ... he would not have gotten the job. No." https://www.reuters.com/business/trump-says-not-much-doubt-that-interest-rates-will-be-lowered-nbc-interview-2026-02-04/