2025-09-29 00:43
JIMBARAN, Indonesia, Sept 29 (Reuters) - Definitions vary as to which minerals and metals are genuinely critical, but one thing is certain. The prices of many of them are currently weak and not reflecting their supposed importance to the global energy transition. The contrast between the current soft pricing for metals such as lithium, nickel, cobalt and copper and the still widespread expectations of a demand surge in the next decade was a key feature of an industry gathering last week on the Indonesian island of Bali. Sign up here. The International Critical Minerals and Metals Summit heard that demand for key energy transition metals is expected to increase fourfold in the decade from now to 2035. Demand for the battery metals lithium, graphite, nickel, manganese and cobalt is expected to rise from around a combined three million metric tons this year to 12 million by 2035, Fastmarkets analyst Olivier Masson told the conference. Copper is also viewed as essential to the energy transition and Masson said the market would need 909,000 tons of additional capacity by 2035 to meet demand for electric vehicles and renewable technologies such as wind and solar. This all sounds very bullish for energy transition metals, but Masson's data also held some sobering realities. Looking specifically at copper, Fastmarkets expects the global market to record a small surplus this year, a slightly larger surplus of just under 200,000 tons in 2026, and a tiny deficit in 2027. It is only in 2033 and 2034 that significant shortfalls of copper are expected by Fastmarkets. The caveat to long-term forecasts is that they are inherently risky as market dynamics can shift, new technologies can alter demand profiles and geopolitics and resource nationalism can increasingly interfere with trade and investment decisions. But working on the assumption that ultimately the energy transition will result in higher demand, the question becomes how should the market respond now? Is it a good idea to seek new copper deposits and commit vast sums of capital to building a new mine in the hope that demand will be strong enough in 2040 to 2050 when it is likely production will actually commence? Despite widespread and sustained forecasts for a shortfall of copper, the price of the industrial metal has barely shifted in recent years. Benchmark London contracts ended at $10,181.50 a ton on September 26, much the same price as they were for much of 2021. Effectively the copper market is roughly in balance currently and is range-trading driven by short-term news events rather than any longer-term views on fundamentals. WAITING FOR DEMAND Other markets are in even worse shape, largely because of over-investment in new supply, either in expectations that demand growth would arrive faster than it has, or as part of government industrial policy. Examples of policy-driven excess capacity are rife in China, which has overbuilt refining for metals such as lithium and cobalt. Indonesia's policy to encourage investment in midstream and downstream processing has helped to achieve dominance in global nickel markets, but at the cost of significant oversupply and weak prices. London nickel futures dropped to the lowest in nearly five years in May this year and at the close of $15,175 a ton on September 26 they are a third of the 15-year peak reached in March 2022. The pattern of weak prices amid oversupply extends to other critical minerals, and leaves producers in the unenvious position of having to navigate to try to contain costs and hang on long enough for the anticipated demand to arrive. If there is some comfort for these miners it is that their situation largely mirrors what happened in iron ore in the last decade, when the major miners in Australia and Brazil expanded output of the key steel raw material faster than Chinese demand was rising. After prices crashed to multi-year lows they did recover to reach record highs as China ramped up steel output to 1 billion tons a year by 2020, a level it has largely maintained since and one that gives it about a 50% share of global production. Producers of energy transition metals probably hope for a similar pattern to iron ore, but they also face other complicating factors, such as efforts by Western nations to develop supply chains outside of Chinese control. If these prove successful it may add more supply to certain markets, which could depress prices further, or lead to policy measures to enforce using higher-cost metal from non-Chinese suppliers. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), your essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis of everything from swap rates to soybeans. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X , opens new tab. The views expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/critical-minerals-are-stuck-between-demand-hopes-oversupply-reality-2025-09-29/
2025-09-29 00:18
TOKYO, Sept 29 (Reuters) - Shares in Sony Financial (8729.T) , opens new tab gained 16% on their first day of trading in Tokyo on Monday, after the business was spun off from entertainment and technology conglomerate Sony (6758.T) , opens new tab. Sony distributed shares in its finance arm, which includes banking and insurance, to shareholders through dividends in kind as it focuses on entertainment. Sign up here. Sony Financial has said it will buy back up to 100 billion yen ($671.1 million) of its shares. It is the first partial spin-off in Japan taking advantage of a 2023 tax change and the first direct listing in more than two decades. The shares rose as high as 210 yen after changing hands for the first time at 10:13 a.m. in Tokyo (0113 GMT), an hour and 13 minutes into the session, but lost momentum over the course of the day to end at 173.80 yen ($1.17), about a 16% gain over the reference price of 150 yen. In a direct listing, a company lists on the stock market without a traditional initial public offering (IPO). The spin-off separates the balance sheets of the financial and non-financial businesses, helping investors understand their aims, Sony has said. Compared with an IPO, the spin-off allows a large-scale separation in a relatively short time with low risk, according to the conglomerate. Sony aims to expand its presence in entertainment from games to movies and music, and maintain its position as the leading manufacturer of image sensors. ($1 = 148.8000 yen) https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/sony-financial-shares-untraded-with-glut-buy-orders-2025-09-29/
2025-09-29 00:11
SINGAPORE/NEW DELHI, Sept 26 (Reuters) - Russia-backed Indian refiner Nayara Energy is exporting oil products through sanctioned tankers and tapping new markets this month as it revives overseas sales in the aftermath of crippling sanctions, LSEG and Kpler shipping data shows. The privately-owned company halted exports for about two weeks after it was sanctioned by the European Union on July 18 for dealing in Russian oil. Sign up here. Nayara's exports of clean products - gasoline, gasoil and jet fuel - fell to around 80,000 barrels per day in August and September - down from about 138,000 bpd in January-July, Kpler data showed. Nayara has been forced to reduce crude runs at its 400,000-barrel-per-day refinery in Vadinar in western India to 70%-80% of its capacity, sources familiar with the matter said, due to difficulties in chartering ships and selling fuel from the port following sanctions. Before the sanctions, Nayara sold its refined products mostly to Western, Middle Eastern and Asian trading firms for export to Asia and northwest Europe, according to traders and shipping data. After the embargo, most Nayara cargoes are bound for the Middle East, Turkey, Taiwan and Brazil, the data showed. Since resuming exports in early August, at least 16 cargoes of diesel, gasoline and jet fuel have shipped out on EU-sanctioned tankers from Vadinar port, where Nayara's refinery is located, the data showed. Five of the tankers loaded with Nayara's products in August and September are floating off Oman and the United Arab Emirates, the data showed. Some of the tankers conducted ship-to-ship transfers off Oman and Egypt. Another two tankers discharged their cargoes at Turkis Enerji Storage Tank Farm in Turkey. Tankers Blue Ember and Anaya that loaded at Vadinar in August and September respectively, are heading to the Brazilian ports of Santos and Paranagua, the data showed. Nayara Energy, authorities in Oman, the UAE and Brazil, Egypt's energy ministry and Turkis Enerji did not respond to requests for comment. Another tanker Opal discharged high-sulphur gasoil loaded from Vadinar on August 22 at Taiwan's Taichung port on September 16, the data showed. Taiwan's Ministry of Economic Affairs declined to comment. Taiwan has wide-ranging sanctions on Russia, but does not explicitly ban Russian energy imports. Traders said a major buyer for Nayara's gasoline cargoes to the Middle East is Redwood Global Supply. Reuters could not find contact information for Redwood. Source: Kpler, LSEG, trade sources https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/after-sanctions-indian-oil-refiner-nayaras-exports-find-new-markets-2025-09-26/
2025-09-28 19:20
BELGRADE, Sept 28 (Reuters) - U.S. sanctions , opens new tab on Serbia's Russian-owned NIS oil company that were supposed to take effect on October 1 will be postponed for eight days, Tanjug news agency reported, quoting President Aleksandar Vucic. The U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control initially placed sanctions on Russia's oil sector on January 10, and gave Gazprom Neft 45 days to exit ownership of NIS. Sign up here. Following a series of waivers since then, on Friday the United States said sanctions would be imposed as of October 1. "They (the U.S.) wanted to show respect and to tell us they understand Serbia's position," Vucic was quoted as saying in Obrenovac. "But in seven days I will still have no answer. He said that Serbia could have "something to offer." "Whether that will be enough, and whether it would be what Americans want, we will see," he said. NIS - in which Gazprom Neft (SIBN.MM) , opens new tab owns a 44.9% stake, Gazprom (GAZP.MM) , opens new tab 11.3% and the Serbian government 29.9% - operates Serbia's sole refinery, in the town of Pancevo, just outside of Belgrade. Gazprom Neft transferred a stake of around 5.15% in NIS to Gazprom on February 26 in an attempt to ward off sanctions. The Pancevo facility has an annual capacity of 4.8 million tons and covers most of the Balkan country's needs, and sanctions could jeopardise its supply of crude via Croatia's Janaf (JANF.ZA) , opens new tab. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-sanctions-serbias-russian-owned-oil-company-nis-postponed-tanjug-news-agency-2025-09-28/
2025-09-28 19:10
Sept 28 (Reuters) - Tropical depression nine has strengthened into a tropical storm Imelda, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said on Sunday. Tropical storm Imelda is about 370 miles (595.46 km) southeast of Cape Canaveral, Florida with maximum sustained winds at 40 mph (65 km/h). Sign up here. The NHC forecast Imelda to strengthen into a hurricane by late Monday or Tuesday next week. Tropical storm conditions are expected over central and northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, NHC said in its latest advisory. Swells generated by storm Imelda and hurricane Humberto will affect portions of the Bahamas this weekend, and spread to much of the east coast of the U.S. early this week, the Miami-based forecaster added. https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/tropical-depression-nine-becomes-storm-imelda-nhc-says-2025-09-28/
2025-09-28 16:47
SAO PAULO, Sept 28 (Reuters) - Workers for Toyota (7203.T) , opens new tab in Brazil voted overwhelmingly on Sunday to approve a plan for temporary layoffs following storm damage to one of the Japanese carmaker's factories in the state of Sao Paulo, according to a statement from the workers union. Heavy rain and winds on September 22 severely damaged Toyota's Porto Feliz factory, a facility where engines are manufactured, initially forcing the company to halt production there and at its Sorocaba facility, where vehicles including the Yaris, Corolla and Corolla Cross are assembled. Sign up here. The union said the layoff plan is designed to protect jobs and the incomes of workers at the plant. It noted that the layoff period will begin on October 21 following a 20-day emergency vacation period starting on Wednesday, and that the layoff arrangement may be extended monthly for up to 150 days. Toyota said on Sunday it continues to assess damage at the Porto Feliz facility, adding that it is expected to be months before work can be resumed at the plant. "Given this situation, the company is seeking alternative engine suppliers from Toyota units in other countries, with the goal of resuming vehicle production at the Sorocaba and Indaiatuba plants," the company said. According to the Metalworkers' Union of Sorocaba and vicinity, more than 96% of workers who cast ballots voted to approve the layoff proposal. Of the 4,492 workers eligible to vote on Sunday, 3,709 participated in the vote, the union said. One of the key points negotiated by the workers and the company was a guarantee that all employees earning a gross salary of up to 10,000 reais ($1,869.30) per month would be paid in full during the layoff period, the union said. ($1 = 5.3496 reais) https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/toyota-workers-brazil-approve-temporary-layoff-plan-union-says-2025-09-28/
