2026-02-04 15:07

Parliament to vote on LNG plant's power connection on Thursday Opposition sought to deny the electrification plan Socialist Party reverses its position, allowing plan to proceed Critics argue grid connection could drive up power prices OSLO, Feb 4 (Reuters) - Norway's Socialist Party has withdrawn its support for a proposal to block Equinor's Hammerfest liquefied natural gas plant from receiving a planned onshore power connection, clearing the way for the grid development to proceed. Parliament is due on Thursday to vote on an opposition proposal seeking to revoke the LNG plant's planned link to the power grid, but the motion is likely to fail without backing from the Socialist Party. Sign up here. The government approved the connection in 2023 to cut greenhouse gas emissions at the plant on Melkoeya island off Hammerfest and extend its lifetime. Critics say hooking up the currently gas-driven plant to the regional grid could deprive other companies of electricity, push up local prices and harm the interests of Sami Indigenous reindeer herders. The far-left Red Party had tabled a motion to kill the plan, seeking to instruct the minority Labour government to "facilitate the release of the power allocated to the electrification project on Melkoeya" by grid operator Statnett. Several political parties, including the right-wing Progress, had signalled they would back the proposal in recent weeks, putting it on course for approval. The Socialist Party said on Wednesday it remained opposed to the project but was withdrawing its support for the motion because it was "in practice unlawful". Earlier on Wednesday, Equinor (EQNR.OL) , opens new tab CEO Anders Opedal warned that the motion would have repercussions far beyond Hammerfest. "This creates uncertainty for everyone who works on and with Melkoeya, but also for everyone who makes investments based on agreements in Norway and for Europe that needs the energy," Opedal said. The plant is owned by Equinor, Petoro, TotalEnergies (TTEF.PA) , opens new tab, Vaar Energi (VAR.OL) , opens new tab and Harbour Energy (HBR.L) , opens new tab and accounts for 5% of Norway's gas exports. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/norways-socialist-party-backs-down-threat-lng-electricity-project-2026-02-04/

2026-02-04 15:00

PRAGUE, Feb 4 (Reuters) - The forint is likely to fall from two-year highs against the euro in the coming months, although the Hungarian currency and others in central Europe should still stay close to recent peaks, a Reuters poll forecast on Wednesday. Central European currencies have mostly been on a hot streak since last year, touching fresh highs since December due to tight monetary policy or economic recovery, or both. Sign up here. But analysts in the poll saw little space for more gains. In the poll taken between January 30 and February 4, Hungary's forint was forecast to fall 1.0% from Tuesday's close to 385.00 to the euro in six months' time. The possibility of renewed interest rate cuts could start to weigh, and an upcoming parliamentary election - in which challengers have a good chance of ending long-time Prime Minister Viktor Orban's rule - will add some volatility, analysts said. A lagging economy, partly due to European funds held up by Brussels disputes, is also working against the forint, said Commerzbank, which provided a more pessimistic-than-consensus forecast for the forint to fall towards 400 per euro. "This growth shortfall not only directly dampens the forint’s prospects, it doubly dampens it by making it more likely that the central bank will face political pressure to lower interest rates," the bank said. ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE HELPING ZLOTY, CROWN In contrast, the poll saw economic performance providing support to the Czech crown and Polish zloty. The crown was forecast to rebound slightly from recent falls and trade 0.6% up in six months, at 24.20 per euro. The crown has eased recently with global uncertainty and rising chances the Czech central bank might cut rates again after a long break. In December, the crown had hit a more than two-year peak of 24.10 to the euro. Analysts at SEB said it could firm past that level by the end of the year due to a favourable trade balance. Danske Bank said Polish growth outperformance versus the euro zone, and a favourable interest rate gap - despite the central bank easing policy - would help the zloty . The median forecast in the poll saw the Polish currency holding steady in the first half of the year and trading around 4.22 per euro in six months, up a tad from current levels. In Romania, the leu was also set to retreat, with the poll putting it at 5.125 per euro, down 0.6%. The currency has long faced pressure from a state budget deficit that is the highest in the EU. A new government began work last year to cut the fiscal gap. "Better than expected budget execution achieved last year is encouraging, although Romania is not out of the wood yet with further consolidation and elevated debt refinancing ahead," said Jakub Kratky, an analyst at Generali Investments CEE. "That said, the leu could lose some ground as the central bank could soon start to think about rate cuts." (Other stories from the Reuters February foreign exchange polls) https://www.reuters.com/business/forint-seen-falling-2-year-high-cee-currencies-stay-near-peaks-2026-02-04/

2026-02-04 13:38

US Treasury to raise new cash of $34.8 billion US to sell $58 billion in 3-year, $42 billion in 10-year notes US to sell $25 billion in 30-year bonds Dealers see fiscal gap of $1.1 trillion in 2027-2028 fiscal year NEW YORK, Feb 4 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury said on Wednesday it does not expect to lift auction sizes for notes and bonds for several more quarters, matching market expectations, as it outlined a $125 billion refunding for February to April 2026. The package will raise new cash of $34.8 billion from private investors for the quarter. Sign up here. Thomas Simons, chief U.S. economist at Jefferies, said in a research note that the main takeaway from the announcement was the Treasury's guidance that auction sizes will be maintained for the next several quarters, after hinting at possible changes in November. "Treasury is cognizant of the likelihood that strong demand for bills will be persistent, so they can rely on front-end issuance to meet most deviations from their expected financing needs for a while to come," Simons added. The minutes of the meeting on Tuesday of the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC), which were released on Wednesday, also caught the market's attention. They provided estimates from primary dealers of a $1.1 trillion shortfall for the 2027-2028 fiscal year, as well as expectations of the timing of the next increases in auction sizes for notes and bonds. In a statement, the Treasury said it continues to evaluate future increases to auction sizes for nominal coupons - Treasury notes and bonds that pay interest - and floating rate issues. It will focus on "trends in structural demand" and the potential costs and risks associated with different issuance strategies, when considering raising auction sizes. The Treasury also said it will sell $58 billion in U.S. three-year notes, $42 billion in 10-year notes, and $25 billion in 30-year bonds next week. Those figures matched the auction sizes for the same securities announced at the November refunding. "The refunding broadly met expectations. No changes to nominal coupon sizes or floating rate notes and really no change to forward guidance," said Zachary Griffiths, head of investment grade and macro strategy at CreditSights in Charlotte, North Carolina. OVERFUNDED FOR 2026 FISCAL YEAR The minutes also showed that dealers estimated that at those current issuance sizes, the Treasury is slightly overfunded for the 2026 fiscal year, as they reduced their aggregate privately-held marketable borrowing estimate by $258 billion for the 2026-2028 fiscal years. Dealers broadly expect the next increase in nominal coupon auction sizes to come in late 2026 or early 2027. Banks and other market players had previously penciled in those increases for next year. "The TBAC made a comment that it could be beneficial to begin increasing nominal coupon auction sizes earlier, at a more gradual pace, and perhaps that's causing a small market reaction," CreditSights' Griffiths said. The yield curve steepened after the Treasury refunding announcement, with market participants pointing to the $1.1 trillion deficit shortfall cited in the TBAC minutes and expectations of an earlier-than-expected time frame for the increase in auction sizes for coupon issuance. The spread between U.S. two-year and 10-year yields rose to 70.8 basis points (bps) after the refunding statement, from 69.3 bps late on Tuesday. It was last at 70.7 bps. A steeper curve can signal concerns about rising fiscal deficits, prompting investors to avoid the long end of the curve. The Treasury also said it expects to maintain the offering sizes of benchmark bills at or near current levels into mid-March. By late March, however, it anticipates modestly reducing short-dated bill auction sizes due to the April 15 income tax deadline. The department noted that these reductions will likely lead to a cumulative $250 billion to $300 billion net decline in total bill supply by early May. In terms of cash balance, the Treasury said it estimates the size of the Treasury General Account (TGA) could peak around $1.025 trillion by late April, before declining in May. It noted that the forecast carries significant uncertainty, given the unpredictable size of April tax receipts and broader macroeconomic, fiscal, and monetary conditions. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-treasury-announces-125-billion-refunding-keeps-auction-sizes-unchanged-2026-02-04/

2026-02-04 12:55

Gold expected to average $4,746.50/oz in 2026 Silver expected to average $79.50/oz in 2026 Individual forecasts , Feb 4 (Reuters) - Gold is set for another record performance in 2026, a Reuters poll showed, as analysts ramp up their forecasts, with geopolitical uncertainty and robust central bank buying still the main drivers. A poll of 30 analysts and traders conducted over the past three weeks returned a median gold forecast of $4,746.50 per troy ounce for 2026, the highest annual forecast in Reuters polls dating back to 2012, and compared with $4,275 estimated in October. Sign up here. Gold's recent surge has prompted analysts to raise their forecasts multiple times. A year ago, a similar poll showed an average forecast of just $2,700 for 2026. COMMODS-GOLD "We are entering a period in which the legitimacy and resilience of the institutions and systems that have underpinned global economic and geopolitical stability for decades are being tested in ways not seen in a generation," said David Russell, CEO at precious metals dealer and broker GoldCore. GOLD'S BULLISH DRIVERS REMAIN INTACT Gold prices bounced to near $5,100 on Wednesday, a day after posting its best day in more than 17 years to recover from the yellow metal's worst two-day rout since 1983. Gold's rally took it to all-time highs just shy of $5,600 on January 29 before prices plunged to $4,403 an ounce on Monday, with the meltdown and profit-taking sparked by U.S. President Donald Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh to be the next Federal Reserve chair. Analysts believe the factors driving gold - including geopolitical risks, robust central bank buying, concerns about Fed independence, rising U.S. debt, trade uncertainty, and de-dollarisation - will continue to support the safe-haven asset in 2026. "Gold's thematic drivers remain positive and we believe investors' rationale for gold (and precious) allocations will not have changed," analysts at Deutsche Bank said. Analysts expect central banks to keep adding to their gold reserves as they diversify and reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar, although jewellery demand is likely to contract further in key Asian regions due to high prices. UPGRADED SILVER OUTLOOK, BUT VOLATILITY RISKS REMAIN Silver price forecasts were also revised up, with analysts now expecting the metal to average $79.50 per ounce in 2026, compared with a $50 forecast for 2026 in the October poll. COMMODS-SILVER Silver, both a safe-haven asset and industrial metal, surged a record 147% in 2025 and extended its winning streak to scale an all-time high of $121.64 on January 29 before slumping to $89.70. The recent rally was driven by retail and momentum-based buying, adding to a prolonged spell of tightness in physical markets, which is now easing. Analysts expect silver prices to remain highly volatile with sharper pullbacks likely due to declining demand. Industrial demand for silver is already showing signs of decline as solar module manufacturers shift away for cost reasons while jewellery demand is also weakening, said Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/analysts-ramp-up-gold-forecasts-global-uncertainties-mount-2026-02-04/

2026-02-04 12:55

IOC considers moving Winter Olympics to January for better snow conditions Paralympics may shift to February due to snow melting concerns IOC explores adding summer sports to Winter Olympics for popularity boost MILAN, Feb 4 (Reuters) - Future editions of the Winter Olympics could be moved to January from their current February slot in order to benefit from more snow and colder weather, as climate change is forcing the International Olympic Committee to review all aspects of its winter sports bonanza. The IOC is also considering the move in order to allow the Paralympics, which traditionally follow the Olympics by a few weeks, to be held in February, instead of their current slot in March. Sign up here. "Maybe we are also discussing to bring the Winter Olympics a little bit earlier to do it in January because it has an implication for the Paralympics as well," Karl Stoss, who heads the IOC's Olympic Programme Working Group, told reporters on Wednesday. "The Paralympics are now in March, and this is very late because the sun is strong enough to melt the snow. So maybe the Paralympics will be in February and the other (Winter Olympics) edition will be in January." The last time the Winter Olympics kicked off in January was 62 years ago, at the 1964 Innsbruck Winter Olympics which opened on January 29. With temperatures rising across the globe, natural snow is becoming less plentiful in some regions and water availability for snowmaking is falling as a result of climate change, putting the global snow sport industry at risk. By 2040 only 10 nations will be able to host the snow sports of the Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games, according to an IOC study. The 2022 Beijing Games became the first Winter Olympics to use virtually 100% artificial snow by deploying more than 100 snow generators and 300 snow-making guns working flat out to cover the ski slopes. SUMMER SPORTS The IOC is also considering introducing traditional summer sports into the Winter Olympics in order to boost popularity and generate revenues. Both the 2030 French Alps and the 2034 Salt Lake City Winter Olympics are scheduled for February. "We are reviewing the size of the Games, the mix of sports, options for new additions. We also look at potential crossover between summer and winter sports," Stoss told an IOC session earlier on Wednesday. Running and cycling disciplines are often mentioned as likely candidates. Some winter sports federations, however, are cautious of such a move as it would cut into their traditional market. "I truly believe that also with a climate change, to have some winter disciplines like cyclocross within the Games could be a good asset for two reasons," International Cycling Union (UCI) chief David Lappartient told reporters. He said leading cyclists could take part while cyclocross, which is a cycle race with steep hills, muddy trails and obstacles, is already attracting big audiences. "So we can potentially extend to address also climate change to maybe bring more universality, to bring also stars," Lappartient said. https://www.reuters.com/sports/ioc-may-move-winter-games-january-get-more-snow-2026-02-04/

2026-02-04 12:53

BENGALURU, Feb 4 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar's recent recovery will be short-lived, holding steady before resuming a broader decline later in the year, a Reuters survey of currency strategists showed, as markets cling to interest rate cut expectations amid concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence. The dollar has fallen nearly 11% since U.S. President Donald Trump took office a little over a year ago, with his repeated calls for much lower interest rates and his recent expression of indifference to a weaker dollar accelerating a recent decline. (.DXY) , opens new tab Sign up here. After Trump nominated former Fed governor Kevin Warsh as Fed chair on Friday, the dollar clawed back some losses as many interpreted the choice as likely to yield fewer rate cuts this year than other candidates for the job. The euro is forecast to hold broadly steady at its current $1.18 level at end-February and $1.185 in three months, though there was little change among FX strategists in a Reuters poll taken between January 30 and February 4 on expectations of a weaker greenback over the medium-term. DOLLAR LIKELY TO BE 'CHOPPY' FOR MOST OF YEAR The six-month and one-year median euro forecasts of $1.20 and $1.21 respectively were the joint-highest levels in Reuters polls since September 2021, last matched in October 2025. "For most of the year, including the next few weeks, the dollar is likely to be choppy," said Jane Foley, head of FX research at Rabobank. "We still don't think the market has fully put to bed concerns about Fed independence and credibility." Asked how the net-short dollar trade would evolve by end-February, all but two of 50 respondents said positioning would remain net-short, a view they have maintained since at least April last year. Even with inflation running above 2% for nearly five years, the longest stretch since the early 1990s, interest rate futures traders are still pricing in two rate reductions this year. DESIRE FOR LOWER RATES The European Central Bank, meanwhile, is expected to keep its deposit rate steady all year. "The administration has been very vocal about their desire for lower rates despite the fact inflation remains quite sticky and above target. Our concern is the Fed dismisses those upside inflation risks and potentially looks to cut policy even below what may be appropriate at the time," said Alex Cohen, FX strategist at Bank of America. "We see that risk pushing real interest rates lower, making the yield curve steeper and the dollar to continue to gradually depreciate over the course of the year." JAPANESE YEN PREDICTED TO RISE The Japanese yen hit a near 18-month low of around 159/$ in January, but recently has come under renewed pressure following comments by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi seeking voter support for higher spending and tax cuts, talking up the benefits of a weaker yen. Japan holds national elections on Sunday. While Takaichi later walked back her comments, worries linger that these mixed signals could hurt efforts to support a frail yen. Still, FX strategists predicted the currency will rise about 4% to 151.33/$ in six months and to 148/$ in a year. "Markets are clearly not keen on the Prime Minister's policies. She has mentioned in a very Trump-like fashion the benefits of a weak yen in terms of being able to export more. But markets are very dubious about her credibility in terms of fiscal policy," Rabobank's Foley said. Foley added that while Takaichi has offered some reassurance on the fiscal side, markets remain wary of higher spending potentially stoking inflation and prompting an already-hawkish Bank of Japan to accelerate interest-rate hikes. "The yen should then have a counterbalance," she said. (Other stories from the February foreign exchange poll) https://www.reuters.com/business/us-dollar-rebound-be-cut-short-by-rate-cut-bets-doubts-over-fed-independence-2026-02-04/