2025-09-25 05:27

US GDP data stronger than expected Dollar index rises to two-week high Euro drops to two-week low against dollar Swiss franc falls after SNB leaves rates unchanged NEW YORK, Sept 25 (Reuters) - The dollar strengthened against major peers including the euro and yen on Thursday following U.S. economic data, which would likely restrain the future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The Commerce Department reported that U.S. gross domestic product rose by an upwardly revised rate of 3.8% from April through June, higher than 3.3% initially reported. Economists polled by Reuters did not expect the rate to be revised. Sign up here. The dollar strengthened 0.58% to 149.77 against the Japanese yen , rising to its highest level since August 1. The euro hit a more than two-week low against the dollar, last trading down 0.66% at $1.1659. "I think everyone seems to have a bit of dollar shorts, and at least anecdotally, it added up to more than what the market thought," said Steve Englander, head of Global G10 FX Research and North America Macro Strategy at Standard Chartered Bank NY Branch. "A year from now, our forecast for where interest rates are going to be is above the market because we think and recent data is showing that there's this real slip between the labor market softness and GDP and output numbers, which are in general bigger." The dollar index , measuring the U.S. currency against six peers, rose 0.68% to 98.50, hitting a two-week high. The dollar has been slightly higher since the Fed lowered interest rates last week, as expected. Traders are anticipating at least two rate cuts in this year's remaining two Fed meetings, although comments from policymakers including Chair Jerome Powell indicate a lot will depend on upcoming economic data. On Wall Street, the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab, Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab and Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC) , opens new tab fell. U.S Treasury yields rose across the board. For benchmark U.S. 10-year notes , the yield rose 2.5 basis points to 4.172%. The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Fed, rose 6.3 basis points to 3.661% "Genuinely, there's an issue for the Fed about how fast you want to cut. Normally, when the labor market is this weak you would say it's all demand," Englander said. "And if demand is faltering, it calls for a rate cut. In this case, they have to keep in mind the possibility that there's a positive supply shock, which would mean that they should be careful about cutting." More Fed officials continued commenting on Thursday about last week's decision to cut rates. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid said the cut was needed to help ensure that the job market remains in a good place. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee said he was not eager to do a lot more policy easing while inflation is above target and moving the wrong way. Stephen Miran, the Fed's newest policymaker, continued on to press for sharper U.S. interest-rate cuts to prevent labor market collapse. The dollar extended gains against the Swiss franc after the U.S. GDP news and as the Swiss National Bank kept key interest rates at zero, as expected. The SNB also warned that U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs had dimmed the Swiss economic outlook going into 2026. The greenback hit a two-week high against the Swiss franc , strengthening 0.60% to 0.8. "Extraordinarily bearish events have taken place for the dollar over the past few months, yet the greenback has exhibited remarkable resilience. And this is increasingly a hotly debated topic among investors," Barclays analysts wrote in an investor note. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/dollar-stays-strong-fed-rate-cut-wagers-wobble-data-focus-2025-09-25/

2025-09-25 05:24

India plans fund for compensation over $170 mln, sources say Looks to draw private, foreign investment into nuclear sector Bill set to be unveiled in parliament in December, sources say NEW DELHI, Sept 25 (Reuters) - India plans to set up a nuclear liability fund to cover accident compensation in excess of 15 billion rupees ($169 million) owed by plant operators, in a bid to ease risk-sharing concerns among global suppliers and private firms, two government sources said. The move holds out potential to unlock long-stalled private and foreign investment in the nuclear industry, by aligning India’s compensation framework with global norms, added the sources, who have direct knowledge of the matter. Sign up here. The statutory fund, proposed by a new atomic energy bill, would supplement an operator’s capped liability, in a shift from the current ad hoc payout system, said the sources, who sought anonymity because the plan has yet to be made public. "The fund seeks to bolster the government’s ability to compensate victims in the event of an accident," said one of the sources. India's atomic energy department, the prime minister's office and the finance ministry did not respond to requests for comment. India, which plans to expand nuclear power capacity 12-fold by 2047, is relaxing rules to end a decades-old state monopoly and a stringent liability provision so as to free up private participation and attract foreign suppliers of technology. Some of the South Asian nation's big conglomerates, such as Tata Power (TTPW.NS) , opens new tab, Adani Power (ADAN.NS) , opens new tab and Reliance Industries (RELI.NS) , opens new tab, have begun preparing investment plans. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government is in the final stages of drafting legislation expected to be introduced in parliament's winter session in December, the sources said. It aims to lure private companies into the areas of atomic energy generation and uranium mining, with foreign players taking minority stakes in nuclear power plants. It also wants to ease nuclear liability laws by removing the provision exposing suppliers to unlimited liability for accidents. The planned fund would provide a clear legal mechanism to finance compensation beyond the operator’s cap. For insurance coverage against nuclear accidents, India now relies on a nuclear insurance pool, a policy tool launched in 2015 but not embedded in law. Though designed to support operator and supplier liability under legislation dating from 2010, it failed to overcome the caution of foreign firms from nations such as France and the United States. Once passed, the new bill will replace the Atomic Energy Act of 1962 and the Civil Liability for Nuclear Damage Act of 2010. ($1=88.7280 rupees) https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/india-considers-nuclear-liability-fund-major-accidents-sources-say-2025-09-25/

2025-09-25 05:16

MUMBAI, Sept 25 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee drifted in a narrow band on Thursday, with traders pointing to activity from importers and exporters as the quarter draws to a close, while dollar-rupee forward premiums were steady near multi-month peaks. The rupee was at 88.6250 against the U.S. dollar as of 10:30 a.m. IST, up slightly from its close at 88.69 on Wednesday. Sign up here. The currency hit a record low of 88.7975 this week and has declined over 3% this quarter, on course for its biggest fall since the quarter starting April 2022. Headwinds, including steep U.S. tariffs on Indian goods and a recent hike in the H-1B visa fee, have pressured the rupee and analysts reckon that near-term depreciation may persist. "The underperformance of INR is understandable given the negative implications from the new US H1B visa proposals for Indian corporates and continued foreign equity outflows," Goldman Sachs said in a note. India's benchmark equity indexes, BSE Sensex (.BSESN) , opens new tab and Nifty 50 (.NSEI) , opens new tab, were steady on Thursday but set for a 2% quarterly decline, diverging from a 9% gain in MSCI's gauge for Asia shares outside of Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) , opens new tab. Foreign investors have net sold $7.4 billion of Indian shares over the same period, hurting the rupee. On Thursday, though, the rupee was drifting after hitting a record low earlier this week. Quarter-end dollar sales from exporters helped support the currency even as importers' hedging demand capped gains, traders said. RATE CUT CALLS Citi on Thursday joined major firms including SBI, Barclays, Capital Economics, Nomura and MUFG in calling for a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India on October 1. While some economists expect a reduction, market pricing is yet to convincingly turn in that direction. The RBI's decision is due following a rate cut by the Federal Reserve last week. Dollar-rupee forward premiums were steady on the day, with the 1-year implied yield at 2.36%. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/rupee-drifts-two-sided-corporate-flows-forward-premiums-steady-2025-09-25/

2025-09-25 04:34

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Stella Qiu After relentlessly pushing higher and higher, global share markets seem to have run out of reasons to rally further as investors come to grips with how stretched valuations are. Sign up here. Wall Street closed lower for a second day and that provided little direction for Asia, with stocks here mostly sticking to tight ranges. Chinese bluechips (.CSOI300) , opens new tab, however, were an exception, up 0.9%, catching up on the global AI surge. Europe is also set for a flat open, with EUROSTOXX 50 futures little changed. Wall Street futures were up 0.2%. Maybe it was month-end or quarter-end rebalancing flows - after all Asian shares have rallied 9% for the quarter and Japan's Nikkei up 13%. Or it could be more Fed speakers sounding a little cautious on the prospects of rate cuts. Futures still imply a 92% chance for a rate cut from the Fed in October, but the total expected easing has faded to 100 bps, from 125 bps a few weeks ago. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly echoed other central bankers by suggesting while further rate cuts are needed, their timing remains unclear. More Fed officials will be speaking during the day, including New York President John Williams, and we will get to see how many doves there are under President Donald Trump's unprecedented scrutiny of the board. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will start interviewing candidates next week to replace Jerome Powell as the Fed Chair. The dollar held onto its mysterious bounce overnight, up 0.6% against major peers, but its short-term technical outlook is still dim. Still, the bounce has left yen bulls reeling after some traders piled into long yen positions following the Bank of Japan's hawkish policy meeting last week. That spilled into yen crosses, with the Swiss franc hitting an all-time high on the yen and the euro hovering at over a one-year peak at 174.66 , just below a record top of 175.90. Next up, we have weekly U.S. jobless claims and the final estimate for the second quarter U.S. GDP, before the all-important Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) on Friday. A sharp rise in jobless claims - which has gained some added significance given the focus on the labour market - would reinforce the case of two more cuts this year, while a strong result would likely bolster the dollar and send short-term yields higher. Key developments that could influence markets on Thursday: -- U.S. data, including trade, weekly jobless claims, durable goods --Six Federal Reserve officials scheduled to speak: Austan Goolsbee, John Williams, Jeffrey Schmid, Michelle Bowman, Michael Barr and Mary Daly -- U.S. Treasury auctions $44 billion of 7-year notes https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-view-europe-2025-09-25/

2025-09-25 02:46

MUMBAI, Sept 25 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is likely to maintain its depreciation bias on Thursday even as traders anticipate the central bank's interventions to avert sharp declines, while foreign portfolio outflows and concerns over U.S. policy shifts continue to weigh. The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee will open in the 88.74-88.77 range versus the U.S. dollar, compared with 88.69 in the previous session. Sign up here. The local currency faced consistent pressure this month on concerns over steep U.S. tariffs on Indian exports and a U.S. visa fee hike that could threaten long-standing business models of Indian IT firms. Given the headwinds, analysts at Bank of America have revised their year-end forecast for the rupee to 86 from 85. A potential breakthrough in talks with the U.S. to lower tariffs "remains the key driver for INR for now as it holds the potential to derail the economic momentum by weighing on exports which could lead to portfolio outflows from equity markets," the analysts said in a note. Foreign investors have net sold $1.3 billion worth of local stocks over September so far. While the rupee had fallen to a record low of 88.7975 on Tuesday, market interventions by the Reserve Bank of India helped it find its footing in the next session. Traders reckon that RBI interventions should help contain a speculative buildup against the currency. Elsewhere, the U.S. dollar was steady against a basket of major currencies as traders weighed the prospect of a measured Federal Reserve easing cycle in the wake of cautious remarks from policymakers. Money markets are currently pricing in a near 92% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed next month. KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 88.90; onshore one-month forward premium at 15.50 paisa ** Dollar index at 97.78 ** Brent crude futures down 0.4% at $69.1 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.14% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $314.8mln worth of Indian shares on Sep. 23 ** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $17.4mln worth of Indian bonds on Sep. 23 https://www.reuters.com/world/india/rupee-vulnerable-portfolio-outflows-us-policy-worries-persist-2025-09-25/

2025-09-25 02:01

BOJ must avoid missing rate-hike chance, one member says Some saw inflation expectations nearing, or hitting, 2% Board engages in lengthy debate on price pressure July minutes prelude 2 hawkish dissent at September meeting TOKYO, Sept 25 (Reuters) - Some Bank of Japan board members, at a policy meeting in July, called for resuming interest rate hikes in the future, even as the board decided unanimously to keep borrowing costs steady, minutes of the July gathering showed on Thursday. While some members saw underlying inflation still short of the BOJ's 2% target, others saw inflation expectations approaching steadily or already having hit 2%, the minutes showed in a sign of growing awareness within the board of mounting inflationary pressure. Sign up here. At a subsequent meeting in September, two board members dissented from the BOJ's decision to keep interest rates steady at 0.5%, instead calling unsuccessfully for a hike to 0.75%. The July discussion reinforces the dominant market view that the BOJ will raise interest rates again this year as a U.S.-Japan trade agreement has reduced uncertainty over the economic outlook. "The BOJ's policy rate is lower than the level deemed neutral, with prices remaining relatively high and the output gap being around zero recently," one member was quoted as saying in the minutes of the July meeting. "In such a situation, it's appropriate for the BOJ to return the policy rate to its neutral level where possible," the member added. Another member said the BOJ should "avoid being overly cautious and miss the opportunity" to raise rates with stock prices reacting positively to the U.S.-Japan trade deal, the minutes showed. Several other opinions also called for timely rate hikes with one saying the BOJ could see scope to hike again by the end of this year if the hit from U.S. tariffs proves limited. The BOJ ended a decade-long, massive stimulus last year and raised interest rates to 0.5% in January on the view Japan was on the cusp of durably achieving its 2% inflation target. While Governor Kazuo Ueda has signaled the bank's readiness to keep raising rates, he stressed the need to tread cautiously due to the expected hit to Japan's exports from U.S. tariffs and uncertainty over the U.S. economy. At the July meeting, one member said the BOJ should wait for "a bit more data" as U.S. inflation and job market developments could cause big swings in U.S. monetary policy and exchange-rate moves, the minutes showed. Others, however, said the United States was likely to avoid recession, while the impact of higher U.S. levies on Japan's economy could prove limited, the minutes showed. The board also debated at length on Japan's inflation outlook. While one member said the recent overshoot in inflation was due largely to a temporary spike in food costs, others warned that persistent food inflation could push up, or keep elevated, public perceptions of future price moves, the minutes showed. "The fact there was so much debate about inflation shows many board members are worried about upward price risks," said Mari Iwashita, executive rates strategist at Nomura Securities, who sees the chance of a rate hike in October. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/some-boj-policymakers-called-future-rate-hikes-july-minutes-show-2025-09-25/