2025-09-24 05:55

Headline CPI hit one-year high on base effects Monthly CPI volatile, little chance of RBA move next week A cut in November is now seen as a coin flip SYDNEY, Sept 24 (Reuters) - Australian consumer prices rose at the fastest annual pace in a year in August after a hot July, suggesting some upside to inflation that prompted markets to pare back the chances of imminent policy easing. The Australian dollar rose 0.3% to $0.6619, while three-year government bond futures fell 7 ticks to 96.45, the lowest in three weeks. Sign up here. Investors doubled down on bets that the Reserve Bank of Australia will skip a move in interest rates next week given the recent flow of data has been on the strong side. Prospects for a move at its November meeting also faded to 50% from almost 70% before the data. Data on Wednesday from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed the monthly consumer price index (CPI) rose 3.0% in August from a year earlier and up from 2.8% in July, mostly due to base effects. It came in just above median forecasts of 2.9%. The key trimmed mean measure of core inflation ran at an annual 2.6% in August, down from 2.7% in July. However, a measure excluding volatile items and holiday travel climbed to 3.4% from 3.2%. Details of the report, mostly in the services sector, suggested some upside risk for third-quarter inflation, which led Barrenjoey, Deutsche Bank, the National Australia Bank, Macquarie and Citi Australia to give up their calls for a rate cut in November. "On any measure this is a material upside surprise and the detail worrying," said analysts at Barrenjoey in a note to clients, noting they still see room for a rate cut in the first half of 2026. "It’s a windy and uncertain path from here and all the turns need to lean in the same direction for the RBA to be able to deliver this additional rate cut." NAB now sees interest rates on hold at 3.6% until May next year, compared with two more cuts expected in November and February, while the Commonwealth Bank of Australia said a November cut is not a done deal. The RBA has downplayed the importance of the monthly CPI data, saying the series remained too volatile, with interest rates only cut this year in February, May and August after assessing the quarterly inflation figures. On Monday, Governor Michele Bullock said Australia's economy was in a good place, with inflation expected to return to the mid-point of the target band of 2% to 3%, and the labour market nearing full employment. The central bank had forecast headline inflation, which ran at 2.1% last quarter, to pick up to 3.1% by the middle of next year, as electricity rebates fade, but core inflation is expected to stay anchored around 2.6% over the coming years. All up, that suggested little urgency to cut rates for the central bank at the next policy meeting September 29-30, since the labour market has stayed resilient, with unemployment at a historically low rate of 4.2%. Wednesday's report provided some updates on the services sector for the quarter. Price growth in restaurant meals, takeaway food and audio visual services has accelerated. New dwelling prices rose 0.7% in the 12 months to August, up from 0.4% as the disinflationary impulse in the housing sector seems to have stalled. "The only path likely rests on the state of the labour market by November," said Phil Odonaghoe, chief economist at Deutsche Bank. "Another weak print might be enough to convince the Board that it can move ahead with a rate cut, but the inherent volatility of the monthly labour market makes it a high hurdle, and so we think the probability of a Nov cut is now below 50%." https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/australia-monthly-cpi-rises-30-yy-aug-core-cools-2025-09-24/

2025-09-24 05:48

Breman praised RBNZ's global reputation and staff dedication Breman is first female RBNZ governor New governor faces challenges with government criticism and economic downturn WELLINGTON, Sept 24 (Reuters) - New Zealand on Wednesday named Swedish national Anna Breman as its new central bank governor, the first woman in the role who joins following a major shakeup at the bank amid criticism over its management of the economy. Finance Minister Nicola Willis said Breman, currently the First Deputy Governor of Sweden's central bank, the Riksbank, will take up her role at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) on December 1. Sign up here. "Dr Breman comes to New Zealand with an impressive blend of technical skills and organisational leadership experience," Willis told a press conference in Wellington. Breman, 49, used her first remarks to praise the New Zealand bank's reputation, following the surprise departure of its previous governor who repeatedly clashed with the government. "The Reserve Bank is an excellent institution: it's known globally for being the first to develop inflation targeting," she told reporters. "Staff are dedicated, they are loyal. They know how important the institution is to New Zealand." Breman was nominated for the role by the RBNZ board following a worldwide search in which 300 potential candidates were identified, Willis said. RBNZ board deputy chair Rodger Finlay welcomed Breman's appointment. "Anna's experience spans central banking, academia and financial markets," he said. "She has strong technical knowledge within monetary policy, financial stability and payments systems after several years at the Executive Board at the Riksbank and an extensive international experience." FIRST FEMALE GOVERNOR Breman, who is married with two teenage daughters, is the first foreign national appointed to the role in its modern history. While central banks globally typically choose local talent for their top roles, the appointment of a foreigner to a governor role is not unheard of with the Bank of England appointing Canadian Mark Carney as governor in 2012. New Zealand, which was the first self-governing country to give women the vote 135 years ago and has had three female prime ministers, has never had a female central bank governor. Karen Silk is currently Assistant Governor at the RBNZ. "It certainly makes a difference when young women and girls can see that there is no office that cannot be occupied by a woman," Willis said. Breman will replace current RBNZ Governor Christian Hawkesby, who was appointed to the role for six months in April following the surprise resignation of former governor Adrian Orr. Hawkesby will also leave the bank and step down from the RBNZ's monetary policy board. Orr, who had a reputation as a maverick policymaker and sometimes wrong-footed financial markets with policy decisions, had faced criticism in recent years for being too slow to cut rates to bring the economy out of a deep recession. "The Reserve Bank has found itself behind the curve over the last couple of years," Jarrod Kerr, chief economist at New Zealand's Kiwibank. "We hope we get some leadership that brings the Reserve Bank ahead of the curve, rather than being reactive. We would like a central bank to be a bit more proactive." Orr quit over a dispute with the government about punishing cuts to the central bank's budget, and had clashed repeatedly with Willis. The centre-right government has become more vocal in other areas, with Prime Minister Christopher Luxon publicly saying he had told the RBNZ what he believes they should do with interest rates. RBNZ's chairman also resigned in August following criticism of the bank’s handling of Orr’s departure. "We are opening a new chapter today, a new chapter in New Zealand's history and a new chapter for Reserve Bank," Willis said. New Zealand's main opposition Labour Party also welcomed Breman's appointment, with economics spokesperson Barbara Edmonds praising her "impressive background". NEW CHALLENGES The tense backdrop had heightened market focus on how the new governor would go about defending the central bank's independence from a critical government and restoring the reputational damage done by a deep economic downturn. Breman's confirmation comes just months after funding for the bank was significantly cut by the government, forcing a restructure with around 20% of its staff expected to be laid off. Her first policy meeting will not be until February. Before that, the RBNZ conducts meetings in both October and November, for which markets are currently pricing a total of 58 basis points of rate cuts. The RBNZ is reviewing bank capital requirements, following public criticism of changes announced in 2019 championed by Orr. Critics contend the regulations reduced availability of funds in the economy and led to extra costs for borrowers. The central bank has cut the benchmark cash rate by 250 basis points since August last year in an effort to shore up a frail economy and recently flagged further cuts. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/new-zealand-appoints-anna-breman-central-bank-governor-2025-09-24/

2025-09-24 04:33

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Gregor Stuart Hunter: Having passed through the autumn equinox to pumpkin-spiced latte season, it's a little mysterious that markets have yet to encounter any of the weakness historically found this time of year. Until today, that is. Sign up here. Stocks are falling across Asia after a sell-off on Wall Street overnight fanned by softer-than-expected economic data and comments from Jerome Powell that gave few clues about the future path of interest rates. The MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan index is off 0.2% around lunchtime for most of the region. Still, soggy data aside, the index is still up 5.6% so far this month and hovering near a four-year high. But the usual dip-buyers were nowhere to be found, with U.S. stock futures trading flat. In early European trades, pan-region futures were down 0.4% at 5,470, German DAX futures were off 0.3% and FTSE futures sank 0.3%. Australian shares sank almost 1% after a bigger-than-expected rise in consumer prices in August. Japan's Nikkei stock index slid 0.5% after manufacturing sector activity fell at the fastest pace in six months in September, driven by further declines in new orders. Even so, there were bright spots to be found, especially in Chinese markets. Alibaba's Hong Kong-listed shares jumped 5% after the e-commerce giant announced on Wednesday its largest artificial intelligence language model to date, the Qwen3-Max, which contains more than 1 trillion parameters. That's almost six times as many as the original version of ChatGPT when it was released three years ago. Elsewhere, New Zealand on Wednesday named Anna Breman as its new central bank governor, the first woman in the role, who joins following a major shakeup at the bank amid criticism over its management of the economy. Breman is currently the First Deputy Governor of Sweden's central bank, the Riksbank. And Jimmy Kimmel is back on the airwaves after a six-day suspension over on-air remarks about the man accused of assassinating conservative activist Charlie Kirk. "I can’t believe ABC Fake News gave Jimmy Kimmel his job back," U.S. President Trump wrote on Truth Social, threatening further action against the network. "Why would they want someone back who does so poorly, who's not funny, and who puts the Network in jeopardy by playing 99% positive Democrat GARBAGE," he posted. Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday: Economic data: Germany: Ifo Business Climate, Current Conditions and Expectations for September US: New home sales for August, EIA weekly crude oil stocks Debt auctions: Germany: 7-year government debt U.K.: 4-year government debt https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-view-europe-2025-09-24/

2025-09-24 03:07

MUMBAI, Sept 24 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is poised to hit another all-time low at open on Wednesday as the fallout from the U.S. H-1B visa fee hike, coupled with weakness in other Asian currencies, compounds pressure on the currency. The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee will open in 88.85-88.90 range versus the U.S. dollar, dipping past the record low of 88.7975 hit on Tuesday. Sign up here. The rupee on Tuesday suffered its steepest one-day drop in a month. The currency has been under sustained pressure from hefty U.S. tariffs on Indian goods, and sentiment worsened further after Washington raised H-1B visa fees, which could disrupt the deployment of Indian IT talent to the U.S., potentially slowing IT services export growth. Analysts at Emkay Global warn that this could drag IT services export growth below 4% in fiscal year 2026, down from an earlier projection of 5%. Further, the higher fees could lead fewer Indian professionals to take up U.S. assignments, potentially reducing remittance inflows. "I reckon that the visa fee hike by itself is not responsible" for the rupee's decline, said a Mumbai-based currency trader at a bank. It is an incremental headwind, "layering onto an already vulnerable" rupee and amplifying existing downside pressures rather than the main catalyst, he said. WEAK ASIAN CUES The rupee is set to face added headwinds on Wednesday amid a mildly souring risk sentiment. Slippage in other Asian currencies is intensifying the pressure, making it harder for the rupee to mount a recovery. U.S. equities fell on Tuesday, with most Asian shares following suit, while regional currencies slipped. Market attention remains squarely on the Federal Reserve and how many more rate cuts it may deliver later this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday that the central bank must continue weighing the competing risks of persistent inflation against a softening labour market in its upcoming interest rate decisions. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/rupee-heads-all-time-low-fallout-us-visa-fee-hike-persists-2025-09-24/

2025-09-24 00:41

Kurdistan, Chevron export issues supporting oil prices API data shows U.S. crude and gasoline stocks fell last week Iran says crude sales to China should continue irrespective of UN sanctions snap-back LONDON, Sept 24 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose over 1% on Wednesday as an industry report showed U.S. crude inventories declined last week, adding to a sense in the market of tightening supplies amid export issues in Kurdistan and Venezuela and disruptions to Russian supplies. Brent futures were up 77 cents, or 1.1%, to $68.40 a barrel at 1215 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 75 cents, or nearly 1.2%, to $64.16. Sign up here. "The market is expecting supply excess and stock builds globally in the last quarter of the year, but the focus recently has shifted back to Eastern Europe and the possible introduction of fresh sanctions on Russia," said PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga. The stalled resumption of Kurdish oil exports along with Chevron's curbed oil exports from Venezuela due to U.S. permit issues added to short-term bullishness in the market, he added. Both benchmarks climbed by more than $1 a barrel on Tuesday as a deal to resume exports from Iraq's Kurdistan stalled, halting pipeline shipments of what would have been 230,000 barrels per day of oil from the region to Turkey, as two key producers asked for debt repayment guarantees. Pipeline flows have been stopped since March 2023. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday said he believed Ukraine could retake all the territory captured by Russia, marking a sudden rhetorical shift in Ukraine's favour. The Trump administration earlier this month urged European Union countries to phase out Russian oil and gas more quickly. Russia is seeing shortages of certain fuel grades as Ukrainian drone attacks reduce refinery runs, according to traders and retailers, after Ukraine stepped up drone attacks on energy infrastructure to reduce Moscow's export revenues. Iran's oil minister Mohsen Paknejad said "new burdensome restrictions" on Iran's oil sales wouldn't be added and sales to China would continue, as Tehran and European powers struggle to reach a deal to prevent the return of U.N. sanctions this week. American Petroleum Institute figures showed U.S. crude and gasoline stocks fell, while distillate stocks rose last week, according to market sources, citing API data. Official U.S. government energy data is due on Wednesday. A Reuters poll of eight analysts ahead of the inventory data, however, estimates that crude oil and gasoline stockpiles rose in the week to September 19 while distillate inventories likely fell. Overall, the global oil market is bracing for elevated supply and slowing demand. In its latest monthly report, the International Energy Agency said world oil supply would rise more rapidly this year and a surplus could expand in 2026. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-rises-us-crude-stockpile-drop-adds-sense-tighter-supply-2025-09-24/

2025-09-23 23:59

Sept 24 - Anson Resources (ASN.AX) , opens new tab signed on Wednesday an offtake deal with South Korea's LG Energy Solution (373220.KS) , opens new tab for battery-grade lithium carbonate supply from the Australian miner's project within the Paradox Basin in southern Utah. Under the agreement, the South Korean battery manufacturer will acquire up to 4,000 dry metric tons annually of lithium carbonate, with supply anticipated to commence in 2028, featuring an initial five-year term with a potential five-year extension. Sign up here. The deal represents nearly 40% of the project's start-up production capacity, estimated at around 10,000 tons annually, with the partnership anticipated to support Anson's debt funding efforts at the final investment decision stage. "This definitive offtake agreement establishes the foundation for a long-term partnership and we are proud that we will be supplying low-cost U.S.-made lithium from the Paradox Basin to LG Energy Solution," said Anson's CEO, Bruce Richardson. Lithium carbonate serves lithium iron phosphate battery production, with electric vehicle sales utilizing these batteries experiencing acceleration across China. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/anson-resources-lg-energy-solution-sign-five-year-lithium-offtake-deal-2025-09-23/