2025-11-03 04:50

MUMBAI, Nov 3(Reuters) - The Indian rupee spent much of Monday's trading session within striking distance of its all-time low, but managed to hold above the level on the back of likely dollar-selling market intervention by the central bank. The rupee closed at 88.7775 against the U.S. dollar, nearly unchanged on the day and a whisker away from its record low of 88.80 hit in late-September. Sign up here. The Reserve Bank of India was likely active through much of the session, according to traders, while persistent dollar bids from importers and foreign banks kept the local currency in a sub-5 paisa trading range. Over the past year since President Donald Trump's return to the White House, the rupee has declined over 5% as investors grapple with stark shifts in U.S. trade and immigration policies. More recently, a hawkish turn in the Federal Reserve's policy outlook and dollar demand, spurred by the maturity of positions in the non-deliverable forwards market, have become a sore spot for the local currency. "The USD appears to be bottoming out in the near term, with bearish positioning starting to normalise and scope emerging for a short squeeze," analysts at Standard Chartered said in a note. Their counterparts at Goldman Sachs hold a moderately positive bias on Asian currencies and are recommending a bullish position on the Indian rupee, using an exotic option structure, despite its latest slide towards its all-time low. Traders expect the RBI to continue intervening to support the rupee in the near-term. While a fall to 89-89.10 cannot be ruled out, recent price action indicates that the central bank certainly won't allow a quick decline of the rupee, a trader at a private bank said. Elsewhere, the dollar index was perched near a three-month high on Monday, while Asian currencies were flat-to-modestly weaker. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/dollar-strength-keeps-rupee-back-foot-rbi-counted-support-2025-11-03/

2025-11-03 04:45

BEIJING, Nov 3 (Reuters) - China's Ministry of State Security on Monday warned that foreign intelligence agencies are stepping up efforts to "illegally obtain" genetic data and seed resources from the country's grain sector, calling the activity a threat to national food security. "In recent years, foreign intelligence agencies have intensified their infiltration into China's grain sector, illegally obtaining genetic data from crops such as soybeans, corn, and rice, posing a serious threat to the country's food security," the ministry said in a statement published on its official WeChat account. Sign up here. "Beijing has long considered its food security to be a national security issue – similar to the way in which energy security has long been framed through a national security lens in Washington," said Even Rogers Pay, a director at Beijing-based Trivium China. "Posts like these from MSS are aimed to create suspicion in the public and encourage them to view foreign interest in ag and food with a skeptical eye." The ministry cited a case in which a Chinese businessperson, surnamed Zhu, sold restricted "parental seeds" - first-generation seeds used in hybridization experiments that are not allowed to be exported - to a foreign entity under a "joint seed cooperation" scheme. The ministry said Zhu hid the seeds in containers that were declared for other exports. Zhu was sentenced to a year and a half in prison, while 17 others involved received administrative penalties. In another incident, foreign consular staff and experts from "a certain country" reportedly conducted unauthorized field surveys in a major agricultural province, collecting data on crop yields and reserves. They allegedly used counter-surveillance tactics, such as switching vehicles frequently and travelling on rural backroads to avoid detection. The ministry said it took action in both cases and urged the public to report any suspicious activity through official hotlines or online channels. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-warns-growing-foreign-espionage-seed-grain-sector-2025-11-03/

2025-11-03 03:42

MUMBAI, Nov 3 (Reuters) - The Reserve Bank of India likely intervened to help the rupee hold above its all-time low on Monday, four traders told Reuters, as the currency encountered pressure due to a broadly firmer dollar and persistent importer hedging. The rupee was last at 88.76 per U.S. dollar, nearly flat versus its closing level in the previous session and within touching distance of its all-time low of 88.80 hit in late-September. Sign up here. State-run banks were spotted offering dollars, most likely on behalf of the RBI, traders said. The dollar index was at 99.76, hovering near its highest level in three months, while Asian currencies were flat to modestly weaker on the day. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indian-central-bank-steps-help-rupee-avert-fall-past-record-low-traders-say-2025-11-03/

2025-11-03 01:36

MUMBAI, Nov 3 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee faces the risk of breaching its record low this week and may count on the central bank's interventions to prevent that while government bond traders are also looking for continued backing from the central bank to contain yields. The rupee closed at 88.7650 against the U.S. dollar on Friday, down 1% week-on-week and hovering close to its all-time low of 88.80 hit in late-September. Sign up here. Interventions by the Reserve Bank of India helped cushion the rupee's fall last week but traders say sentiment on the local currency is inclined towards further weakness. Merchant flows are skewed towards dollar demand and in the absence of the central bank's dollar-sales, the rupee could see a quick decline, a trader at a private bank said. "Market will test RBI's resolve to defend the rupee. It will be interesting to see if the RBI continues to defend 88.80 resolutely or chooses to leave some powder dry in case the rupee weakens further," forex advisory firm IFA Global said in a note. The focus will also be on the extent of portfolio flows two large initial public offers are able to attract. Indian eyewear retailer Lenskart's (LENS.NS) , opens new tab float will close for bids on Tuesday while stock broker Groww's $754 million IPO will open for bids on the same day. For global markets, the focus is likely to be on remarks from U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers to gauge the future direction of interest rates after the Fed delivered a hawkish jolt in its commentary last week, alongside an expected cut. The dollar index ended up by 0.8% last week. In the local market, India's 10-year benchmark 6.33% 2035 bond yield settled at 6.5317% on Friday, up xx basis points week-on-week over about the RBI's liquidity and interest rate trajectory. Traders expect the benchmark yield to stay in the 6.50% to 6.60% band this week, with few catalysts apart from any potential central bank action to support sentiment. With uncertainty regarding Fed rate cut rising, there has been a spillover effect on bets of rate easing from the RBI next month. A majority of market participants had been anticipating an India rate cut in December and the market is still pricing in around 20 bps of easing from the RBI over the next few months. Pricing for the December meeting has reduced to around 8-9 bps from 13-14 bps a few weeks ago, even as recent volatility in overnight rate fixing adds some uncertainty about pricing at the front-end of the yield curve, analysts at Nomura said in a note. Foreign inflows into Indian government bonds are on the rise, with net purchases worth $1 billion in October, marking a third straight month of inflows of more than 75 billion rupees ($853.29 million). KEY FACTORS: India ** October HSBC manufacturing PMI - November 3, Monday (10:30 a.m.) ** October HSBC services PMI - November 6, Thursday (10:30 a.m.) U.S. ** October S&P Global manufacturing PMI final - November 3, Monday (8:15 p.m. IST) ** October ISM manufacturing PMI - November 3, Monday (8:30 p.m. IST) ** October ISM non-manufacturing PMI - November 5, Wednesday (7:30 p.m. IST) ** October S&P Global composite PMI final - November 5, Wednesday (8:15 p.m. IST) ** October S&P Global services PMI final - November 5, Wednesday (8:15 p.m. IST) ** October non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate - November 7, Friday (6:00 p.m. IST) ($1 = 87.8950 Indian rupees) https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-rupee-prone-fall-past-record-low-rate-outlook-key-bond-yields-2025-11-03/

2025-11-03 00:27

BoE to release November rate decision at 1200 GMT on Thursday Most economists see rates at 4%, minority expect cut to 3.75% Markets see 1-in-3 chance of cut after weaker-than-expected CPI Job market softening but some policymakers fear sticky inflation BoE minutes to give more room for MPC personal views, scenarios LONDON, Nov 3 (Reuters) - The Bank of England looks likely to keep interest rates on hold on Thursday, slowing its pace of cuts for the first time since it started to loosen policy last year, although some analysts do now expect a reduction after softer inflation and wage data. The BoE's most recent rate cut - by a quarter-point to 4% in August - only passed by a 5-4 margin after two rounds of voting by the Monetary Policy Committee. Sign up here. In September, Governor Andrew Bailey said the pace of rate cuts, which the BoE has delivered once every three months since August 2024, was "more uncertain". British consumer price inflation remains the highest among major advanced economies at 3.8% due largely to one-off factors including April's rise in employer social security charges. However, the fact that inflation did not rise to 4% in September as the BoE had been forecasting, alongside a further softening in wage growth and a rise in unemployment, has revived bets on a cut on Thursday. MARKETS SEE 1-IN-3 CHANCE OF THURSDAY CUT Financial markets on Friday priced in a 1-in-3 chance of a quarter-point cut on November 6, rising to two-in-three by the end of the year. Last week, U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs changed its view to predict a November rate cut. But overall, a narrow majority of economists polled by Reuters last week did not expect the BoE to move before 2026. The European Central Bank - which has inflation almost on target - held rates last week and appears to be at the end of its cutting cycle. A divided U.S. Federal Reserve, under pressure from President Donald Trump, cut rates by a quarter-point to a range of 3.75-4%. James Smith, an economist at Dutch bank ING, predicted another 5-4 split among the BoE's policymakers - but this time in favour of keeping rates on hold, and he viewed a December cut as being in the balance, depending partly on finance minister Rachel Reeves' November 26 budget. Softer data since September's meeting was unlikely to have resolved divisions on the MPC, he said. "Having turned more cautious over the summer, I don't think their thinking will have shifted as much as the market pricing has over the last month," he said. MPC DIVIDED OVER INFLATION PRESSURES Some BoE policymakers, such as Chief Economist Huw Pill and external MPC member Catherine Mann, fear inflation's rebound to close to 4%, less than three years after it was in double digits, might weaken businesses' and households' confidence that the BoE can reliably achieve its 2% inflation target. Others focus more on falling employment and a slowdown in wages as a sign that workers cannot push for higher wages. Bailey said last month the latest wage data was in line with his view that labour market pressures were easing. "It will not be a straightforward decision for the MPC," said Nomura economist George Buckley who expects a 5-4 vote to cut rates this week. Bailey and Deputy Governors Sarah Breeden and Dave Ramsden would join external MPC members Swati Dhingra and Alan Taylor who have repeatedly voted for lower rates, Buckley predicted. MORE BERNANKE RECOMMENDATIONS TO BE IMPLEMENTED The BoE will this week take another step in overhauling how it explains its decision-making, following recommendations last year by former U.S. Federal Reserve chair Ben Bernanke. For the first time, individual MPC members will state their personal policy views and more space will be given to assessing the impact of economic scenarios that differ from the central view and different paths for interest rates. The MPC will also spend less time fine-tuning its inflation forecasts, which have previously been used to help steer market expectations. In August, the BoE predicted inflation would not return to its 2% target until the second quarter of 2027, and pencilled in modest annual economic growth of 1.25% for this year and next. https://www.reuters.com/business/bank-england-likely-slow-rate-cut-cycle-this-week-2025-11-03/

2025-11-03 00:24

LONDON, Nov 3 (Reuters) - A group of investors in mining called on Monday for the creation of an independent agency for the sector modelled after the International Energy Agency. The group of investors, which together manage or advise on $18 trillion of assets, said the new International Minerals Agency would be able to monitor global mineral supply and demand as well as illegal flows, a statement said. Sign up here. The agency would also provide data about which companies are progressing toward global performance standards on sustainability, it added. The group of investors - the Global Investor Commission on Mining 2030 - includes PIMCO, ING (INGA.AS) , opens new tab, L&G, Allianz Investment Management, Church of England Pension Fund and Royal London Asset Management. It released a report in Sao Paulo, aiming to provide a 10-year blueprint for a responsible mining sector, ahead of United Nations climate negotiations, having met with President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva of Brazil. "The Commission’s vision offers a roadmap for investors to unlock value by promoting sustainability and improving public perception," said Peter Kindt, global head transition accelerator at ING. "Achieving this will require multi-stakeholder collaboration and new initiatives like an International Minerals Agency." https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/investors-call-creation-international-minerals-agency-2025-11-03/