2026-02-04 11:06

Feb 4 (Reuters) - Bunge (BG.N) , opens new tab on Wednesday forecast current-year adjusted profit below analysts' expectations, as volatile commodity markets and tighter margins hurt the global grain trader. A slump in grain prices, weak crop-processing margins and geopolitical tensions have eroded profitability in the sector, affecting Bunge and peers such as ADM (ADM.N) , opens new tab and Cargill. Sign up here. Bunge executives had flagged in November last year that uncertainty over trade and biofuels policy will be a drag on fourth-quarter earnings as farmers selling crops to the company and customers buying its products have been reluctant to book deals beyond the near-term. Last month, Reuters reported that the Trump administration plans to finalize 2026 biofuel blending quotas by early March. The quotas were originally expected in late October 2025. The delay has pushed one of the administration's most consequential energy policy choices into 2026. Without clarity on quotas, companies said they were forced to hold back on deals and spending decisions that shape output and margins. Rival grain trader Archer-Daniels-Midland, whose operations are more concentrated in the U.S., forecast 2026 adjusted profit below analysts' expectations on Tuesday due to the deferral of U.S. biofuel policy. Bunge reported adjusted earnings of $1.99 per share for the quarter ended December 31, down from $2.13 a share a year earlier, but above the consensus analyst estimate of $1.81 per share, according to data compiled by LSEG. The Missouri-based company expects 2026 adjusted earnings per share between $7.50 and $8.00, compared with Wall Street expectations of $8.71. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/bunge-beats-fourth-quarter-profit-estimates-2026-02-04/

2026-02-04 10:58

Gecamines and Mercuria to market Kipushi's zinc to US Project Vault aims to secure strategic metals for US Kipushi mine to produce 240,000–290,000 metric tons of concentrate in 2026 KINSHASA, Feb 4 (Reuters) - Ivanhoe Mines (IVN.TO) , opens new tab is in advanced talks with Congo’s state miner Gecamines and Swiss commodities trader Mercuria to channel zinc‑rich concentrate from its giant Kipushi mine to the United States under Washington’s new strategic stockpiling scheme Project Vault, the company said. The arrangement forms part of a wider deal , opens new tab between the U.S. and the Democratic Republic of Congo on minerals, as Washington ramps up its fight with China for control of Africa’s vast deposits. Sign up here. Project Vault — a $12 billion supply‑chain security programme launched on Monday by the U.S. and backed by $1.67 billion in private capital and a $10 billion U.S. Export‑Import Bank loan — aims to secure long‑term supplies of strategic metals globally. It is a key pillar of President Donald Trump's drive to reduce reliance on China by locking in Western access to vital inputs for defence, clean energy and advanced manufacturing. CRITICAL MINERALS FOR TECH APPLICATIONS Ivanhoe’s Kipushi zinc mine is forecast to produce 240,000–290,000 metric tons of concentrate this year, including significant quantities of germanium and gallium — minerals the U.S. deems critical for semiconductors, defence and clean‑tech applications. A deal with Ivanhoe would see Mercuria assign its existing offtake for Kipushi concentrate to Gecamines’ trading arm, while also marketing additional volumes expected from the mine’s ramp‑up in late 2025, Ivanhoe said on Monday. Gecamines could ultimately handle up to half of Kipushi’s output, including shipments to the United States, Ivanhoe said. Gécamines confirmed the partnership in a separate statement on Tuesday, saying it was backed by a December 2025 deal with Mercuria that provides financing and logistics to activate its offtake rights. It said the arrangement is the first step in a plan to expand into processing zinc, copper, germanium and gallium, with the goal of becoming Kipushi’s sole buyer. U.S. ACCELERATES MINERALS DEALS IN CONGO Glencore (GLEN.L) , opens new tab and U.S.-backed Orion Critical Mineral Consortium (Orion CMC) have announced a similar arrangement to channel cobalt and copper from Congo into the U.S. supply chain under the same government‑backed programme — a sign of accelerating competition among Western buyers for Congolese minerals. Kipushi, which hosts ultra high‑grade zinc as well as silver, copper, germanium and gallium, is one of Congo’s largest polymetallic deposits. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/ivanhoe-eyes-us-market-congo-zinc-under-project-vault-2026-02-04/

2026-02-04 10:57

Feb 4 (Reuters) - Futures tracking Canada's main stock index rose on Wednesday as precious metals extended their gains, while oil prices climbed amid simmering tensions in the Middle East after the U.S. shot down an Iranian drone. March futures on the S&P/TSX composite index were up 0.5% as of 5:35 a.m. ET. Sign up here. Toronto's resources-heavy benchmark index (.GSPTSE) , opens new tab closed higher on Tuesday, extending its rebound, as strength in mining shares overshadowed a tech selloff - led by U.S. and European software companies, linked to Anthropic's updated AI chatbot. Spot gold on Wednesday gained 2.3% and silver climbed 5.5%, maintaining its recovery, while copper rose on China's plan to expand its strategic reserve. Oil prices also firmed after the U.S. military said on Tuesday it had shot down an Iranian drone that "aggressively" approached the Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea, raising fears of potential escalation between the nations. Brent crude futures and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude were up 0.65% and 0.8%, respectively. Canada's aviation regulator said it was working with the Federal Aviation Administration over delays in approving Gulfstream jets, after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to decertify and slap tariffs on Canadian-made aircraft. In corporate news, Suncor Energy (SU.TO) , opens new tab beat fourth-quarter profit estimates on Tuesday as higher production helped offset the impact of weak commodity prices. FOR CANADIAN MARKETS NEWS, CLICK ON CODES: TSX market report Canadian dollar and bonds report CA/ Reuters global stocks poll for Canada , Canadian markets directory ($1 = 1.3653 Canadian dollars) https://www.reuters.com/business/tsx-futures-rise-gold-extends-gain-oil-advances-us-iran-tension-2026-02-04/

2026-02-04 10:38

Feb 4 (Reuters) - Sterling rose to a fresh five‑month high against the euro on Wednesday, though investors remained on hold ahead of the Bank of England’s policy meeting later this week. British interest rates are likely to fall further this year, but the BoE will probably sound vague this week about when or by how much it will cut borrowing costs as it awaits a clearer picture on inflation. Sign up here. The single currency hit its lowest since August 27 against the pound at 86.15 pence and was last down 0.09% at 86.21 pence. The U.S. dollar edged lower against the euro as a delay in releasing key jobs data due to a partial government shutdown added to uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s policy path. The British currency was roughly unchanged at $1.3702. Strategists at Barclays argued in a research note that the euro/sterling now is “fairly close to rate differential-consistent levels,” after the process of fiscal risk premium unwind for is over. Post-budget economic data have registered a notable bounce, consistent with the improved fiscal outturn for December. "The stronger pound reflects both a reduction in UK fiscal and political risks after the Budget was released, and building evidence of a pick-up in growth momentum in the UK as uncertainty has faded," said Lee Hardman, senior currency economist at MUFG. Activity in Britain's services sector grew strongly in January and confidence rose, a survey showed on Wednesday, but firms also reported a jump in their prices. “For the BoE, a pause by the Monetary Policy Committee at 3.75% is widely expected and the messaging is unlikely to matter much for the pound other than additional easing is to come,” said Paul Mackel, global head of forex research at HSBC. “ECB President Lagarde will likely emphasise there is not a forex target but may hint at how the U.S. administration’s policies could create a stronger euro,” he added, after recalling that the euro's strength is expected to take centre stage at this week's policy meeting. Traders priced in 35 bps of BoE rate cuts by year-end, implying one 25 bps move and a 40% chance of an additional cut. They also indicated European Central Bank policy rates stable through early 2027. Political risks also linger in the UK in relation to Prime Minister Keir Starmer's position, starting with the Gorton and Denton by-election on 26 February and culminating with the May local elections. Opinion polls put Reform UK ahead of both Prime Minister Keir Starmer's Labour Party and Kemi Badenoch's Conservatives, the two parties that have dominated British politics for over a century, though a national election is not due until 2029. https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/sterling-hits-fresh-5-month-high-versus-euro-boe-focus-2026-02-04/

2026-02-04 10:25

MOSCOW, Feb 4 (Reuters) - The Kremlin said on Wednesday that it saw nothing new in India's announcement that it would diversify its oil supplies as New Delhi has always bought oil from different countries, including Russia. Trade Minister Piyush Goyal said earlier on Wednesday that India would diversify its energy sources as a strategy amid changing global circumstances to ensure energy security for its citizens. Sign up here. Goyal's statement followed the announcement by U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday of a U.S.-India trade deal. Trump spoke about New Delhi halting its Russian oil purchases, something that India has not publicly confirmed since. Asked about India's oil purchase plans, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said everyone knew that Russia was not the only supplier of oil to India. "We, and not only us, but all specialists in the field of international energy affairs, are well aware that Russia is not the only supplier of oil and petroleum products to India," Peskov told reporters. "India has always purchased these products from other countries. That is why we do not see any new developments here." https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/kremlin-says-it-sees-nothing-new-indias-plan-diversify-its-oil-supplies-2026-02-04/

2026-02-04 10:13

BENGALURU, Feb 4 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is forecast to remain in a narrow range over the next few months, having clawed back only a fraction of the losses it has racked up against the dollar since early 2025, a Reuters poll of FX strategists found. The latest monthly poll, taken after U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday announced a trade pact with India to slash U.S. tariffs on Indian goods to 18% from 50%, suggests strategists expect foreign capital inflows are likely to remain sluggish. Sign up here. The rupee, which is partly managed by the central bank, rose 1.36% against the dollar on Tuesday, its biggest one-day gain since December 2018. But it was forecast to trade roughly around current levels, at 90.19 per dollar by end-April 2026, and then be at 90.63 by end-July, according to the median view of 27 strategists polled between February 3-4. The currency, down about 0.46% for the year, was expected to trade a bit weaker at 91 in a year, according to the median forecast from the poll. "It would be unreasonable to expect the rupee to unwind all of its depreciation that has happened over the past one year or so," said Dhiraj Nim, FX strategist at ANZ. "There have been multiple reasons for equity outflows, not just U.S.-India trade tensions, which include concerns over equity market overvaluation, a lack of India's participation in the global AI trade rally, and the earnings stress domestically...only some of these factors have eased, not all." Concerns about still-lofty valuations after years of stock market outperformance as well as weak earnings are likely to keep foreign investors cautious. These pressures have contributed to the rupee striking successive record lows over the past year even while the dollar has mostly weakened. India's benchmark equity indices were largely flat on Wednesday following their strongest gains in nine months on Tuesday after the trade deal announcement. "While foreign equity portfolio inflows will get a near-term pop, we don't think it will be a sustained improvement over 2026...foreigners will likely continue to exit and take profits on their investments in India, and correspondingly put pressure on INR to weaken," noted Michael Wan, senior currency analyst at MUFG. "We think the RBI has an incentive to buy dollars given the sizeable net short forward position, and as such, there will be some natural floor to USD/INR if inflows improve over time," Wan added. Sharper one-sided moves in the currency have so far been capped by the RBI's interventions in the foreign exchange market. Most economists in a separate Reuters poll expect the RBI to keep its key interest rates on hold at least until the end of 2026. (Other stories from the Reuters February foreign exchange poll) https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indian-rupee-forecast-remain-weak-rangebound-despite-us-india-trade-deal-2026-02-04/