2025-10-29 23:27

BOJ keeps policy rate steady at 0.5% as expected Two board members repeat proposal for hike to 0.75% Ueda says 'initial wage momentum' key to rate hike timing BOJ wants to await 'a bit more data', Ueda says TOKYO, Oct 30 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan kept interest rates steady on Thursday, with its governor sending the strongest signal yet that a rate hike was possible as soon as December depending on the outlook for wages next year. The yen, however, slumped on selling by investors who had expected an even more hawkish tone from Governor Kazuo Ueda, after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's recent remarks urging the central bank to move more quickly on rate hikes. Sign up here. As widely expected, the central bank kept its short-term policy rate steady at 0.5%. The decision was split, with board members Naoki Tamura and Hajime Takata dissenting and reiterating their proposals made in September to raise rates to 0.75%. In a sign of growing conviction that conditions for a rate hike were falling into place, Ueda said the likelihood of the BOJ's baseline projection materialising has "heightened somewhat." The BOJ wanted to await "a bit more data" to confirm whether companies will keep raising wages despite pressure from higher U.S. tariffs, he added. "I'm not saying that we need to wait until the final outcome of next year's wage talks becomes available. We want to gather a bit more data on the initial momentum of the talks," Ueda said, when asked whether enough data will become available to raise rates at the next policy meeting in December. Despite Ueda's hawkish comments, the yen slid to its lowest since mid-February at 153.56 per dollar. It also fell to an all-time low against the euro at 178.39. Market participants may have focused on Ueda's remarks dismissing concerns that the central bank was behind the curve in tackling inflation risks, analysts said. Still, analysts anticipate a rate hike in the coming months. "The BOJ is tip-toeing towards a hike. With inflation remaining elevated, economic performance on a decent track, and fiscal tailwinds gathering speed, it remains a question of when, not if, the BOJ will hike," said Fred Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC in Hong Kong. "While markets have pushed back expectations for monetary tightening by Japan's central bank, officials may hike policy rates sooner rather than later." ON TRACK, FOR NOW Japan's economy has so far weathered the hit from higher U.S. tariffs with corporate profits, business sentiment and capital expenditure plans holding up. Stubbornly high food prices have kept inflation above the BOJ's 2% target for well over three years, drawing policymakers' attention to broadening inflationary pressure. The board has thus been split between hawks who see conditions ripe to raise rates and doves like Ueda who prefer awaiting more data on the extent of damage from slowing U.S. growth and President Donald Trump's tariffs. Uncertainty over the impact of tariffs also overshadowed discussions at the U.S. Federal Reserve, which delivered another interest rate cut on Wednesday but by a split vote. In a quarterly outlook report released on Thursday, the BOJ slightly revised up its economic growth forecast for the current fiscal year ending in March 2026. It left unchanged its view that risks to the price outlook were roughly balanced. The BOJ also said it expects underlying inflation to hit 2% in the latter half of the three-year projection period through fiscal 2027, retaining language in the previous report in July. NEW POLITICAL CHALLENGES FOR BOJ Aside from looming overseas risks, politics have complicated the BOJ's decision. Markets had reduced bets on an October rate hike after last week's inauguration of new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, who is known as an advocate of loose monetary policy. Still, a majority of economists polled by Reuters expect the BOJ to raise rates either in October or December. Nearly all project a hike to 0.75% happening by end-March. Ueda said political considerations will not get in the way of necessary rate hikes, stressing that the BOJ will raise borrowing costs once the board is convinced that companies will sustain the trend of setting higher wages. He also dismissed suggestions that the BOJ might avoid a rate hike in December - around the time the government drafts next year's state budget. "Our main focus is on scrutinising the initial momentum of next year's wage talks," Ueda said. The BOJ last year exited a decade-long, massive stimulus programme and raised rates to 0.5% in January on the view Japan was close to durably hitting its 2% inflation target. It has kept interest rates steady since then. Critics say the slow pace of the BOJ's rate hikes has contributed to yen weakness, raising import costs and fuelling broader inflation. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/boj-seen-keeping-rates-hold-yen-pressure-looms-2025-10-29/

2025-10-29 23:18

Oct 29 (Reuters) - Microsoft's (MSFT.O) , opens new tab Azure said it was seeing strong improvement in regions that were affected by an outage, impacting the tech giant's suite of productivity software and a range of industries worldwide. Alaska Airlines (ALK.N) , opens new tab earlier on Wednesday said it experienced a disruption to key systems, including its website, due to the Azure outage and was bringing systems back online once Microsoft resolved the issue. Sign up here. Britain's Heathrow Airport's website was back online after issues had affected it earlier in the day. Vodafone (VOD.L) , opens new tab had also been impacted due to the outage. Azure is seeing "strong signs of improvement across affected regions and are tracking toward full mitigation" by 7:20 p.m. ET, it said on its status page. Affected services include Azure Communication Services and Media Services, among others. The Microsoft outage follows last week's disruption at Amazon (AMZN.O) , opens new tab AWS, which caused global turmoil among thousands of sites and some of the web's most popular apps, such as Snapchat (SNAP.N) , opens new tab and Reddit (RDDT.N) , opens new tab. Microsoft 365 had said that its services were experiencing downstream impact related to the Azure outage. A recent configuration change to a portion of Azure infrastructure is causing the outage, it said on its status page. Beginning at about 12  p.m. ET, Azure said its customers and Microsoft services that leverage Azure Front Door, a global cloud-based content and application delivery network, had experienced issues resulting in timeouts and errors. The number of users reporting issues with Azure had dropped to 230 as of 6:49 p.m. ET, from a peak of over 18,000 earlier in the day, according to Downdetector, which tracks outages by collating status reports from a number of sources. The outage at Microsoft 365 had eased to 377 users reporting issues as of 6:49 p.m., down from nearly 11,700, Downdetector's website showed. Its numbers are based on user-submitted reports and the actual number of affected users may vary. The AWS outage was the largest internet disruption since last year's CrowdStrike malfunction hobbled technology systems in hospitals, banks and airports, highlighting the vulnerability of the world's interconnected technologies. https://www.reuters.com/technology/microsoft-azure-down-thousands-users-downdetector-shows-2025-10-29/

2025-10-29 23:07

Russia is second-biggest diesel exporter US sanctions on Rosneft, Lukoil will lead to changes in diesel flows New EU measures force Indian refiners to replace Russian crude LONDON, Oct 30 (Reuters) - A new wave of Western sanctions on Russia’s oil industry has roiled the diesel market, sending refining margins soaring, but global supplies are unlikely to be severely disrupted for long. U.S. President Donald Trump last week sanctioned Russia's two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, following a similar move by Britain. These are Trump’s first punitive measures against Moscow over its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Sign up here. Russia is the world's third-largest exporter of crude oil and the second-biggest diesel exporter, shipping over 800,000 barrels per day of the transport fuel so far this year, around 3% of global demand. The U.S. measures are exacerbating existing turmoil in the diesel market sparked by the European Union’s adoption earlier this month of a new sanctions package that includes a ban on imports of fuels produced from Russian crude. This ban, which takes effect in January 2026, closes a loophole that primarily benefited refiners in India and Turkey. In combination, the EU and U.S. sanctions are forcing traders to scramble to find alternative sources of supply, particularly for Europe, the world’s largest diesel-importing region. As a result, profit margins for processing crude oil into diesel have surged by nearly 20% over the past week to around $29 a barrel, the highest since February 2024, according to LSEG data. But if recent history is any guide, this price spike is unlikely to last. REROUTING AND REBRANDING Rosneft and Lukoil have exported an average of 182,000 bpd and 138,000 bpd of diesel, respectively, so far this year, collectively accounting for 39% of total Russian exports, according to shipping analytics firm Kpler. Turkey is the largest buyer of Russian diesel, responsible for 36% of its seaborne exports, followed by Brazil at 18%. While large companies in Turkey, Brazil and other countries may reduce imports of Russian diesel to avoid violating sanctions, many local importers with no exposure to U.S. financial institutions will continue purchasing Russian diesel. China, which has a well-developed network of traders and tankers to circumvent Western sanctions, will likely absorb some of the excess diesel from Rosneft and Lukoil, which will probably be sold at a significant discount to international prices. Any remaining Russian diesel will likely make its way into the shadow market where it will be blended with diesel from different sources, or it will simply be rebranded. In the meantime, refiners around the world are apt to quickly respond to the surge in diesel prices by adjusting operations to maximize diesel output, for example by using different crude feedstocks, further mitigating any supply concerns. INDIAN REFINING GOES OFF RUSSIAN DIET The U.S. and EU restrictions will nevertheless have a heavy impact on India, which is the top buyer of Russian seaborne crude as well as a major exporter of diesel to Europe since the bloc stopped importing Russian diesel in 2023. India has exported 583,000 bpd of diesel so far this year, around 8% of global seaborne volumes, of which 106,000 bpd went to Europe, making India the region’s fourth-largest overseas source of diesel, according to Kpler data. In the face of Western sanctions pressure, Indian refineries have started to rapidly replace Russian Urals crude, which produces high diesel yields. This should generate stronger demand among refiners for alternative crudes that have similar diesel yields. Such medium-sour grades are produced mostly by Middle Eastern OPEC members Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq. They have all sharply increased production this year, offering ample alternatives to Russian crude. To be sure, the greater competition for medium-sour grades will likely lead to higher diesel prices, but the availability means most refineries will be able to sustain their output levels. For example, Reliance Industries, which operates the world's biggest refining complex in India’s western Gujarat state, has said it will comply with all western sanctions, yet has no plans to reduce output. Reliance accounts for three-quarters of India’s diesel exports, meaning that the bulk of Indian sales to Europe should remain steady next year – though they may come with a higher price tag. However, not all Indian companies can pivot so easily. Another major Indian refiner, Nayara Energy – which accounts for nearly 10% of India’s diesel exports – is 49% owned by Rosneft and relies solely on Russian crude. It is being forced to sharply reduce its output in the wake of the sanctions, sources told Reuters. Collectively, though, Indian refiners appear to have ramped up exports last month to 748,000 bpd in September, their highest since March 2022, in the immediate aftermath of Russia's invasion, according to Kpler. European traders appear to be stocking up on Indian diesel before the EU sanctions kick in next January, more than doubling purchases in September from the previous two months to 317,000 bpd. They may not need to worry though. Any price spikes in the diesel market are apt to be short-lived, which may be bad news for global refiners but good news for European consumers. Want to receive my column in your inbox every Monday and Thursday, along with additional energy insights and links to trending stories? Sign up for my Power Up newsletter here. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), , opens new tab your essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI , opens new tab can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X. , opens new tab https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/diesel-rally-sparked-by-western-sanctions-russia-will-be-short-lived-2025-10-29/

2025-10-29 22:06

Oct 29 (Reuters) - Agrichemicals company FMC Corp (FMC.N) , opens new tab on Wednesday forecast lower-than-expected adjusted profit for the year after reporting a third-quarter loss, sending its shares down more than 20% in extended trading. Earlier this year, the company said it would divest its commercial business in India, in response to challenges in the country. Sign up here. FMC's India business divestiture and pricing adjustments led to nearly a 50% decline in net sales, which came in at $542.2 million for the quarter. Excluding the impact of the India business sale, net sales came in 10% lower than last year at $961 million, and below analysts' expectations of $1.06 billion, according to data compiled by LSEG. FMC, a key player in the insecticide and fungicide market, has also been facing intensified competition in key markets, prompting it to reduce prices. The company is one of the largest crop-protection product makers in the United States and competes with industry giants such as Syngenta, as well as German firms BASF (BASFn.DE) , opens new tab and Bayer (BAYGn.DE) , opens new tab in the agrichemicals sector. For the third quarter, the company reported a net loss attributable to shareholders of $569.3 million, compared with a year-ago profit of $65 million. FMC forecast current-year adjusted profit to be in the range of $2.92 to $3.14 per share, which also missed analysts' estimates of $3.50 per share. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/fmc-forecasts-downbeat-2025-profit-posts-quarterly-loss-india-divestiture-shares-2025-10-29/

2025-10-29 21:59

Oct 30 (Reuters) - Australia's Ampol (ALD.AX) , opens new tab reported a 22.2% quarter-on-quarter increase in third-quarter refining margins at its Lytton refinery on Thursday, helped by improved operational performance and higher profit margins for producing fuels in Asia. The country's largest fuel retailer said its Lytton refinery margin increased to $10.64 per barrel in third quarter, up from $8.71 in previous quarter. Sign up here. The company attributed the rise in refining margins to strengthening of Singapore refined cracks as compared to the first half of the fiscal year. It reported total production of 1,252 million litres for the third quarter from the refinery, lower than the 1,406 million litres in the last quarter. Ampol said replacement cost earnings before interest and tax for the three months had exceeded the first half's quarterly average due to stronger margins at the fuel and infrastructure business excluding Lytton. This was further aided by better results at the refinery. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/australias-ampol-reports-over-22-sequential-rise-third-quarter-lytton-margins-2025-10-29/

2025-10-29 21:46

South Korea also seeks US permission for nuclear fuel reprocessing US only shared nuclear sub tech with UK in 1950s Experts question necessity of South Korea's nuclear sub acquisition SEOUL/WASHINGTON, Oct 30 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday he has given South Korea approval to build a nuclear-powered submarine, a dramatic move that would admit Seoul to a small club of nations possessing such vessels. The submarine will be built in a Philadelphia shipyard, where South Korean firms have increased investment, Trump wrote on social media. The U.S. president, who has been meeting with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung and other regional leaders during his visit, also said Seoul had agreed to buy vast quantities of U.S. oil and gas. Trump and Lee finalized details of a fraught trade deal at a summit in South Korea on Wednesday. Lee had also been seeking U.S. permission for South Korea to reprocess nuclear fuel. NUCLEAR RESTRICTIONS EASING? Seoul is barred from reprocessing without U.S. consent, under a pact between the countries. "I have given them approval to build a Nuclear Powered Submarine, rather than the old fashioned, and far less nimble, diesel powered Submarines that they have now," Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform on Thursday. South Korea's Industry Ministry said its officials had not been involved in any detailed discussions about building the submarines in Philadelphia. While South Korea has a sophisticated shipbuilding industry, Trump did not spell out where the propulsion technology would come from for a nuclear-powered submarine, which only a handful of countries currently possess. The U.S. has been working with Australia and Britain on a project for Australia to acquire nuclear-powered submarines involving technology transfers from the United States. The U.S. has so far only shared that technology with Britain, back in the 1950s. Lee said when he met Trump on Wednesday that allowing South Korea to build several nuclear-powered submarines equipped with conventional weapons would significantly reduce the burden on the U.S. military. He also asked for Trump's support to make substantial progress on South Korea being allowed to reprocess spent nuclear fuel, or on uranium enrichment, something currently not allowed under the nuclear agreement between the two countries, even though South Korea possesses nuclear reactors to generate power. APPROVAL RAISES QUESTIONS Lee's predecessors had wanted to build nuclear-powered submarines, but the U.S. had opposed this idea for decades. Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Washington-based Arms Control Association, said the issue of South Korea acquiring such submarines "raises all sorts of questions.” "As with the AUKUS deal, (South Korea) is probably looking for nuclear propulsion services suitable for subs, including the fuel, from the U.S," he said. Kimball said such submarines usually involved the use of highly-enriched uranium and would "require a very complex new regime of safeguards" by the International Atomic Energy Agency, which has a key role in implementing the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). "It remains technically and militarily unnecessary for South Korea to acquire the technology to extract weapons-usable plutonium from spent fuel or to acquire uranium enrichment capabilities, which can also be used to produce nuclear weapons," he said. "If the United States seeks to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons worldwide, the Trump administration should resist such overtures from allies as strongly as it works to deny adversary access to these dual-use technologies." Jenny Town, who heads 38 North, a Korea-focused research group in Washington, said it was inevitable that South Korean demands for U.S. cooperation on nuclear issues would grow, given recent allegations about Russian technical cooperation to help nuclear-armed North Korea make progress towards acquiring nuclear-powered submarines. Kim Dong-yup, a North Korea studies professor at Kyungnam University, said the Lee-Trump summit had formalized a "transaction scheme of security guarantees and economic contributions" for maintaining the extended deterrence and alliance in exchange for South Korea's increased defense spending and nuclear-powered subs and U.S. investments. "In the end, this South Korea-U.S. summit can be summarized in one word: the commercialization of the alliance and the commodification of peace," he said. "The problem is that the balance of that deal was to maximize American interests rather than the autonomy of the Korean Peninsula." Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/trump-says-south-korea-has-approval-build-nuclear-powered-submarine-2025-10-29/