2025-10-24 12:25
BRASILIA, Oct 24 (Reuters) - Brazil's current account deficit reached $9.77 billion in September, wider than the $7.75 billion shortfall forecast by economists in a Reuters poll, central bank figures released on Friday showed. Foreign direct investment (FDI) for the month came in at $10.67 billion, beating the $6.5 billion expected in the poll and marking the highest level for the month in the historical series. Sign up here. Over the past 12 months, FDI amounted to 3.47% of gross domestic product (GDP), not enough to cover the current account deficit, which stood at 3.61% of GDP. Brazil's widening external gap has been driven mainly by a shrinking trade surplus: imports have been growing faster than exports as Latin America's largest economy continues to show resilience despite high borrowing costs. In September, the trade surplus narrowed by $2.2 billion from the same month a year earlier, said the central bank. Also contributing to the larger current account deficit, the deficit in factor payments rose by $946 million, only partially offset by a $640 million decline in the services deficit. According to the central bank, portfolio investments in the domestic market posted net inflows of $4.43 billion in September, a 49.6% increase from a year earlier, driven by $5 billion in net debt inflows and $572 million in net equity outflows. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazil-posts-wider-than-expected-current-account-deficit-september-2025-10-24/
2025-10-24 12:15
SOFIA, Oct 24 (Reuters) - Bulgaria is preparing measures to secure uninterrupted supplies of oil and oil derivatives after the U.S. imposed sanctions on Russia's Lukoil (LKOH.MM) , opens new tab, which runs the country's biggest oil refinery, Energy Minister Zhecho Stankov said on Friday. U.S. President Donald Trump imposed sanctions on Russia's two biggest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft (ROSN.MM) , opens new tab, over Moscow's war in Ukraine, sending shockwaves across Europe, where Lukoil has a network of filling stations, and transports, stores and refines crude. Sign up here. Lukoil is Bulgaria's biggest crude importer. It runs the 190,000 barrel-per-day Burgas oil refinery, operates more than 200 petrol stations and has a fuel transport and depot network. "This is an extremely important situation in which we, with the interested parties, including our European partners ... will have the opportunity ... to build a common European action plan for the situation that has arisen," Stankov said after a ministerial meeting including other state agencies. He said that Bulgaria's plan will involve monitoring fuel stocks in the country. "Bulgarian citizens should be calm, fuel is provided. Until the end of the year, the quantities are guaranteed," Stankov said at a news conference. Justice Minister Georgi Georgiev said the Burgas oil refinery and several other subsidiaries representing the Lukoil group meet the criteria of the U.S. sanctions and that the government was in contact with U.S. institutions to ensure the refinery can continue operating. The Bulgarian parliament on Friday adopted an amendment requiring the cabinet and the country's intelligence service to provide their approval prior to any sale of Lukoil's assets in Bulgaria. Lukoil was already under pressure to due to existing sanctions against Russia over the Ukraine conflict. Georgiev said the security services and the interior ministry have taken additional measures to ensure capacity, manpower and any other security measures at the refinery. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/bulgaria-prepares-measures-its-lukoil-owned-refinery-after-us-sanctions-2025-10-24/
2025-10-24 12:15
BEIJING, Oct 24 (Reuters) - China on Friday unveiled a proposal for a more stringent steel capacity swap plan, 14 months after it paused the old programme that failed to rein in rampant expansion, leaving the industry with overcapacity that hit profitability and sparked protectionist backlash. China halted its existing steel capacity replacement programme from August 23, 2024. Sign up here. The addition of new steel capacity in the key areas, the transfer of steel capacity from non-key areas to key areas and the capacity transfer among key areas are strictly forbidden, China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said in a statement. Key areas refer to the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding areas, the Yangtze River Delta region, and the Fenwei Plain, according to the statement. Provinces and cities that the country has clear targets for total steel capacity are not allowed to accept the transfer of capacity from other regions, it said. At least 1.5 metric tons of old steel capacity is needed to exit for building every-tonnage new capacity. More efficient utilization of scrap steel to develop the cleaner electric-arc-furnace-based steelmaking in an organized way and the development of hydrogen metallurgy in appropriate regions are encouraged, it added. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-proposes-more-stringent-steel-capacity-swap-plan-curb-overcapacity-2025-10-24/
2025-10-24 12:06
LONDON, Oct 24 (Reuters) - British finance minister Rachel Reeves is expected to raise tens of billions of pounds in taxes in her budget on November 26 to stay on track to meet her fiscal targets and avoid a loss of confidence in the bond market. Reeves has said she is looking at spending reductions too but any cuts are expected to be small. Sign up here. Following is a summary of measures that Reeves is reportedly considering or has been urged to introduce as she seeks as much as 30 billion pounds a year ($40.3 billion) in extra revenue. INCOME TAX Reeves and Prime Minister Keir Starmer promised voters last year they would not raise the rates of income tax, value-added tax or social security contributions paid by "working people." The Guardian said on October 23 that Reeves might increase the main income tax rate by one percentage point to raise an extra 8 billion pounds. Such an increase in just the higher and top rates of income tax would raise around 2 billion pounds and 230 million pounds a year respectively. A minister said on October 24 the pre-election tax commitment stood. Reeves could raise about 8 billion pounds of extra income tax by extending a freeze on the thresholds at which people pay basic and higher income tax rates by two years until 2030. VAT Value-added tax could be simplified by ending lower or zero rates for products such as food and children's clothes. But that could add to British inflation which is the highest among the Group of Seven economies. Tax experts also say a lower starting threshold for businesses paying VAT would bring in more revenue and remove a disincentive for growth among small firms. A NEW TAX Reeves might introduce a new tax, on incomes for example, dedicated to a specific area of spending such as public health. Such a move would probably be seen as breaking the spirit of the 2024 commitment. THE WEALTHY Reeves has ruled out a new wealth tax but said on October 15 that higher taxes on the wealthy "will be part of the story," leading to speculation that she might increase taxes on capital gains and other income sources. Reeves often says "those with the broadest shoulders should pay their fair share of tax". PROPERTY Many economists say a stamp duty tax paid by homebuyers discourages mobility and holds back economic growth. A separate local tax paid by homeowners is based on out-of-date valuations. Reeves might seek to increase taxes paid by owners of expensive homes and reduce stamp duty. PENSIONS Options include charging social security levies on pension contributions made by employers to staff or lowering the 25% tax-free lump sum that individuals can take from a pension. Legal & General CEO Antonio Simoes told Reuters the budget must not deter pension savers. SAVINGS ACCOUNTS The Financial Times said on October 14 that Reeves was looking at lowering the tax-free limit for cash Individual Savings Accounts in the hope of driving more money into the UK stock market. LAWYERS AND ACCOUNTANTS The Times reported on October 21 that Reeves was considering an increase in tax on people in limited liability partnerships, which are typically used by partners at large accountancy and law firms, triggering protests from professional bodies. BANKS Some think tanks have called for higher taxes on banks to claim back some of the billions of pounds of interest that lenders have received on reserves held at the Bank of England, a feature of the BoE's quantitative easing programme. Such a move could hurt lending and slow growth, bankers say. Reeves said on October 16 she wanted to ensure there is a "competitive environment" for financial services firms. 'SIN TAXES' Taxes on alcohol, tobacco, gambling and vaping could go up. Other options are air travel, plastics and sugary drinks. But higher "sin" taxes could prompt consumers to change their spending behaviour and limit the extra government revenues. They could also be inflationary. FUEL DUTY Successive governments have kept fuel duty frozen since 2011, fearful of protests by drivers over petrol and diesel costs. The duty is a big revenue-raiser bringing in around 25 billion pounds a year, so ending the freeze could boost tax revenues significantly. ($1 = 0.7451 pounds) https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/uk-tax-options-finance-minister-reeves-november-budget-2025-10-24/
2025-10-24 11:57
KYIV, Oct 24 (Reuters) - A man detonated an explosive device as border guards checked documents at a railway station in northern Ukraine on Friday, killing himself and three women, the State Border Guard Service said. It said in a statement that 12 other people were hurt in the blast at the station in Ovruch, close to the border with Belarus, and that a border guard was among the dead, who were aged 29, 58 and 82. Sign up here. The man who detonated the explosive device was a 23-year-old resident of Kharkiv in northeastern Ukraine who had recently been detained for trying to cross the border, it said. It made no mention of any link with Russia's war in Ukraine. https://www.reuters.com/world/man-kills-himself-three-women-ukrainian-railway-station-2025-10-24/
2025-10-24 11:51
LONDON, Oct 27 (Reuters) - Copper has a long history of mine supply disruption, but this year is proving to be a particularly troubled one for a sector that has been racing to keep up with smelter demand. Several of the world's largest copper mines have experienced unexpected production hits and the cumulative impact will be felt in full force next year, according to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). Sign up here. Tightness in the mined concentrates segment of the market will act as a hard brake on refined copper production growth in 2026, the Group said in its latest biannual statistical update , opens new tab. Even with demand growth expected to slow next year, metal production is projected to fall short by 150,000 metric tons. It's a significant revision from the Group's last meeting in April, when it was expecting a 209,000-ton supply surplus. MINE SUPPLY GROWTH STALLS With many copper mines operating in remote, challenging conditions, a degree of unforeseen disruption is hard-wired into the market's supply profile. This year, however, is proving to be an outlier of the worst kind with a string of accidents at several of the world's mega mines. Ivanhoe Mines' (IVN.TO) , opens new tab Kakula mine was hit by seismic activity and subsequent flooding in May. Chilean state producer Codelco's El Teniente mine suffered a fatal collapse in July and Freeport-McMoRan's (FCX.N) , opens new tab Grasberg mine experienced a devastating inflow of mud in September. The ICSG has unsurprisingly cut its 2025 mine supply forecasts, with growth now expected to be just 1.4%, down from a previous forecast of 2.3% and actual growth of 2.8% in 2024. This is still a pretty conservative call. Analysts at Citi and UBS, for example, are forecasting "no growth" and "negligible growth" respectively this year. HITTING THE BRAKES The loss of units will take some time to feed through to the refined segment of the copper market. The ICSG has actually lifted its assessment of metal production growth this year to 3.4% from April's 2.9% to reflect the surge in new Chinese smelter capacity. But growth next year will slow to a 0.9% crawl, with production constrained by a shortage of mined concentrates. Even that lowball figure flatters to deceive. Production from secondary recyclable sources is expected to rise by a robust 6.0% next year, while straight-to-metal mine output using leaching technology will increase by 2.2%. Primary production at smelters using concentrates as feed will by implication struggle to register any growth at all. The imbalance between raw material availability and smelter demand is likely to accentuate already fierce competition for copper concentrates. SURPLUS TODAY, GONE TOMORROW The ICSG concludes that despite tepid demand growth of 2.1% next year, the copper market is on course to register a supply deficit after two consecutive years of surplus. But not quite yet. This year is still expected to be a year of plenty, although the Group has trimmed the forecast production surplus to 178,000 from 289,000 tons at its April meet. Most of the surplus metal is in the U.S. due to the incentive created by the threat of import tariffs on refined copper, deferred until next year. Stocks of copper registered with U.S. exchange CME now exceed those held by the London Metal Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange combined. However, even as global inventory has moved location, total exchange stocks have risen by 120,000 tons since the start of the year, with the strong likelihood there is more copper sitting in off-market storage in the United States. The current inventory cushion is acting as a counterweight to the market's bullish exuberance. But futures markets price in future expectations. The LME three-month metal price , currently bubbling just below the $11,000-per ton level, comes with a delivery date of January 2026. And next year is when the copper market looks set to feel the full impact of this year's string of mine supply shocks. Andy Home is a Reuters columnist. The opinions expressed are his own https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/copper-study-group-highlights-impact-mine-supply-hits-2025-10-24/
