2025-09-16 05:17

LITTLETON, Colorado, Sept 16 (Reuters) - The outlook for wind speeds around the United Kingdom this autumn and winter will likely be decisive for the UK's gas market over the coming months, with potentially far-reaching consequences for Europe's gas and power arenas. Any extension of the below-normal wind farm output seen so far this year could trigger a steep rise in gas use by UK power firms heading into winter, with tighter gas supplies and higher gas prices a likely outcome. Sign up here. A strong late-year rebound in UK wind power output, however, could lead to reduced domestic gas use by UK power firms, and potentially higher gas and power exports by the UK during Europe's key gas consumption period over the winter. SUB-PAR 2025 FOR WIND... SO FAR Monthly UK wind electricity generation fell below the year-before output total during six of the first eight months of 2025, data from Ember shows. Total wind electricity output so far this year was just over 48 terawatt hours (TWh), which was 8.3% or 4.3 TWh less than during the same months in 2024. The wind output total for the January through August stretch was the lowest for that period since 2022, and resulted in wind farms accounting for the lowest share of the UK's electricity generation mix since 2022. Wind farms generated 31.9% of the UK's utility-scale electricity supplies during January to August, compared to close to 35% for the same months in 2024. GAS OFFSET To offset the dip in output from UK wind farms, UK power firms dialled up gas-fired power generation by 17.5% from the same months last year, and to the highest in two years. The closure of the UK's last remaining coal-fired power plant last September also helped boost gas-fired generation this year, and also led to the highest power generation total on record from the UK's diesel-fired power stations. Gas-fired power accounted for 33% of UK utility electricity generation, which is up from a 29% share during the same period in 2024. Going forward, gas will remain the UK power sector's main source of dispatchable power, especially during periods when intermittent output from wind farms falls short of expectations. Gas will also be the power sector's main heating source during upcoming cold spells in the UK, where temperatures are forecast to trend lower going forward but should hold above the long-term average for the coming month, data from LSEG shows. SEASONAL UPSWINGS Both wind and gas generation tend to see upswings heading into the latter months of the year. Wind electricity production in particular has historically seen a sharp upturn during the final quarter of the year compared to the July to September quarter, as wind speeds at turbine level pick up with the change of season. Between 2019 and 2024, wind electricity generation in the UK during the final three months of the year jumped by an average of 65% compared to the average generation during the July to September quarter, Ember data shows. Wind power's share of the UK generation mix also historically increases notably as the year progresses, from an average of around 30% a month during the middle of the year to closer to 40% during the peak winter months. UK power generation from fossil fuel power plants also historically rises from mid-year into winter. Between 2019 and 2024, total fossil fuel electricity generation during the last three months of the year averaged around 18% more than the output levels during July to September, due to higher demand for heating in winter. Historically, both coal-fired and gas-fired power plants were cranked up to generate that higher power supply, but with the UK's coal plants now closed gas plants will do most of the wintertime heavy lifting going forward. TIGHT STOCKS A key constraint on UK gas generation potential during the coming winter will be the volume of gas supplies on hand during any sudden cold snaps which trigger a demand surge. Historically, the UK has relied mainly on its pipeline network from its own production fields and from exporter nations for its gas supplies, and so does not tend to maintain a large volume of inventories in domestic storage tanks. However, given the lack of back-up coal plants since late 2024, the UK power system is expected to increase the overall volume of gas it consumes during peak demand periods. That in turn is expected to put its existing supply networks under strain during any unexpected bouts of higher gas use, and lead to more regular drawdowns on existing stockpiles. Stock drawdowns have already been evident so far this year, with average inventories from January 1 through September 15 41% less than during the same period in 2024, and the lowest since 2021. Gas traders have historically used the months of September and October to rebuild stockpiles ahead of the winter rush, and so still have time to stock up this year. And power firms can traditionally rely on greater power supplies from wind farms to meet much of any additional load requirements during cold and breezy days. But with UK wind output still consistently holding below year-earlier levels, some power suppliers may start to worry that wind output may remain stunted for the rest of 2025, and that higher gas generation will be needed to balance system needs. For gas traders, that in turn could trigger consistently above-normal gas demand through the end of the year, as well as periods of sharply higher gas demand whenever power demand spikes during cold snaps. Just how big the swings in gas use will be closely linked to wind farm output, which gas traders will need to watch more closely than ever during the coming autumn and winter. The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), your essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis of everything from swap rates to soybeans. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X , opens new tab. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uk-gas-traders-need-watch-how-wind-blows-this-winter-2025-09-16/

2025-09-16 05:14

Trump administration in biggest maritime push in decades China's global ports seen as strategic risk in time of war Beijing says follows framework of international law LONDON, Sept 16 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is on a mission to weaken China's global network of ports and bring more strategic terminals under Western control, according to three sources familiar with the plan. The drive is part of the most ambitious effort to expand U.S. maritime influence since the 1970s and is designed to address growing fears in Washington that it would be at a disadvantage to China in the event of a conflict. Sign up here. Trump administration officials believe the U.S. commercial shipping fleet is ill-equipped to provide logistical support for the military in time of war and Washington's dependence on foreign ships and ports is excessive, the people said. Options the White House is considering include supporting private U.S. or Western firms to buy Chinese stakes in ports, the three people said. They did not mention any specific firms other than to cite BlackRock's (BLK.N) , opens new tab proposed deal to buy the port assets of Hong Kong's CK Hutchison (0001.HK) , opens new tab in 23 countries, including by the Panama Canal, as a good example. The sources asked not to be named because they are not authorised to discuss the matter publicly. The White House and U.S. Treasury did not respond to requests for comment. Besides Panama, U.S. officials and lawmakers are concerned about Chinese maritime infrastructure holdings in places including Greece and Spain, the Caribbean, and U.S. West Coast ports, according to the sources. China conducts normal co-operation with other countries within the framework of international law, a spokesperson with China's diplomatic mission in Washington said. "China has always been firmly opposed to illegal and unjustifiable unilateral sanctions and so-called long-arm jurisdiction and moves that infringe on and undermine other countries' legitimate rights and interests through economic coercion, hegemonism and bullying," the spokesperson said. Officials in Beijing did not respond to a request for comment. "The U.S. government sees Chinese investments in global ports as a huge threat to its national security," said Stuart Poole-Robb, founder of risk and intelligence advisers KCS Group. "The concern is that China could leverage its control over these assets for espionage, military advantage or to disrupt supply chains during geopolitical crises," he said, citing conversations with U.S. security counterparts. GREEK PORT IN FOCUS The U.S. intends to look at Chinese interests in the Greek port of Piraeus, the three sources said. Situated in Athens, in the eastern Mediterranean, Piraeus is a pivotal hub on the trade route linking Europe, Africa and Asia. COSCO, one of China's biggest port and shipping groups, holds a 67% stake in the Piraeus Port Authority company. Some Chinese investors are concerned Washington may want to target COSCO's operations in Greece, a source close to Chinese investors involved in Greek shipping said. COSCO and the Greek government did not respond to requests for comment. Greek officials have told Reuters previously that they have not been informed about any plans to change control of Piraeus. Washington already has COSCO in its sights. The Department of Defense added state-owned COSCO to its blacklist , opens new tab of companies with links to the Chinese military in January. While the designation does not involve immediate bans on U.S. companies doing business with those listed, it can act as a signal that further action is being considered. "The United States intends to attack China's international influence by exaggerating the 'China threat theory' and use this as an excuse to force allies to take sides in supply chain arrangements," the Development Research Center of the State Council, an official think-tank of China's governing cabinet, said in a paper published last month. The U.S. administration has unveiled measures , opens new tab to increase America's thin commercial maritime presence around the world, including by encouraging domestic shipbuilding, is looking to expand access to U.S.-controlled shipping registries, and is also reviewing global maritime , opens new tabchokepoints for shipping risks. China owns or leases an extensive network of ports through companies including COSCO and other state-controlled enterprises such as China Merchants and SIPG in Shanghai. According to a report , opens new tab published last year by the Council of Foreign Relations, a U.S. think-tank, China had investments in 129 port projects worldwide through various companies, as of August 2024. China's shipbuilding industry is also estimated to be 230 times larger than U.S. shipyard capacity, meaning it could take decades to catch up, according to U.S. Navy estimates , opens new tab. The U.S. maritime push has contributed to tensions with Beijing, which sees port and shipping assets as integral to its Belt and Road initiative, at a time when the two superpowers are already at loggerheads over trade and tariffs. MEDITERRANEAN GATEWAY UNDER REVIEW In March, the U.S. Federal Maritime Commission launched a review of seven maritime chokepoints. It said it wanted to identify regulations, policies or practices "that create unfavourable shipping conditions". The Strait of Gibraltar, which separates Spain from Africa at the entrance to the Mediterranean Sea, was one such waterway the review is examining. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has sought to deepen trade ties with China and this has raised concerns in Washington over Beijing's access to its ports, two of the sources said. "We are not aware of any alleged concerns or approaches by third parties on this matter and therefore it is not appropriate for us to comment," a Spanish foreign ministry spokesperson said when asked for comment about Chinese port investments. COSCO has concessions to operate container terminals in Valencia and Bilbao, a Spanish Port Authority spokesperson said. Trump has taken numerous steps since returning to the White House to boost U.S. influence over the seas. He signed an executive order in April to revive shipbuilding capacity to expand the fleet of U.S.-controlled vessels. His administration is examining a proposal to establish a shipping registry in the U.S. Virgin Islands that could attract vessels to a U.S.-controlled flag without having to meet the stricter standards of the domestic U.S. registry. The U.S. is poised to start hitting Chinese-built or Chinese-flagged vessels with fees for calling at U.S. ports. And Trump has also flagged seizing the semi-autonomous Danish territory of Greenland as an objective, due to its proximity to the Arctic and key shipping lanes. Together, this all adds up to the most ambitious effort by the U.S. to improve its position in global shipping since President Richard Nixon, who tried to bolster domestic shipbuilding, the commercial ship registry, and U.S. sea power, the sources familiar with the plans said. "The U.S. in the short to medium term is likely to continue its efforts to counter Chinese influence in the key port areas by building alliances and partnerships to counter Chinese power and economic growth," said Poole-Robb at KCS. CARIBBEAN SHIPPING CONCERNS The United States has expressed concern too about Chinese investment in Jamaica's Kingston terminal, a key maritime transhipment hub in the Caribbean due to its location and deep-water port facilities, according to the three sources. China Merchants has a stake in the company operating Kingston's container terminal together with France's CMA CGM. Chinese metals group JISCO bought the Alpart alumina refinery in St Elizabeth west of the capital in 2016 and owns nearby Port Kaiser. A June analysis , opens new tab by the Center for Strategic & International Studies think-tank said China's presence in Kingston posed the greatest security risk to the United States out of all Beijing's port projects in Latin America and the Caribbean. On a visit to Kingston in March , opens new tab, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, described China's strategy as being characterised by "predatory practices", using government-subsidised companies to "underbid everybody" and acquire assets. The presence of equipment from untrusted suppliers in critical infrastructure throughout the world, including ports, increases the risk to U.S. national security, a State Department spokesperson said when asked about Rubio's comments. A spokesperson for Jamaica's ministry for foreign affairs and foreign trade said it had no knowledge of any U.S. communication or request about reducing China's maritime influence in the Caribbean nation. There was already some pushback against Chinese investment in the region during the first Trump administration. "I suspect that there's going to be increasing pressure from the U.S. for us to back off from any increasing engagement with China," said former Jamaican Prime Minister Bruce Golding, who helped bring Chinese investments into the Caribbean country. In the United States, meanwhile, COSCO has investments with local partners in container terminals at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. The White House did not respond to a request for comment about COSCO's U.S. investments. In Australia, U.S. private equity firm Cerberus, which was founded by U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense Stephen Feinberg, has shown interest in buying the lease for Darwin Port, a senior executive of the port's Chinese operator Landbridge said in May. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has pledged to return the strategic northern port to local ownership and reiterated during a visit to China in July that the government's position was very clear about wanting Australian ownership. Albanese's office referred Reuters to his previous comments. Feinberg has not been involved in any discussions or decisions regarding any acquisitions his former company may be interested in, a U.S. defense official said when asked for comment. Democratic and Republican lawmakers have been scrutinizing China's port ownership since the end of President Joe Biden's term, a U.S. port official familiar with the matter said. Speaking in February, Carlos Gimenez, chairman of the House Homeland Security Subcommittee on Transportation and Maritime Security, said: "America cannot, and will not, stand idly by while Communist China continues to undermine our interests at maritime ports." https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-targets-chinas-grip-global-ports-sweeping-maritime-mission-2025-09-16/

2025-09-16 05:08

European shares dragged down by banks and insurance stocks Investors bet on further Fed cuts, no more from ECB Gold at new record high, dollar weaker SINGAPORE/LONDON, Sept 16 (Reuters) - Global shares held near record highs on Tuesday as investors bought U.S. assets on the premise that the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates, while selling equities in Europe, where borrowing costs look unlikely to fall much further. MSCI's all-country index (.MIWD00000PUS) , opens new tab edged up 0.46% to new record highs. The pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) , opens new tab dropped 0.19%, led by declines in rate-sensitive banks (.SX7E) , opens new tab and insurers (.SXIP) , opens new tab, which stand to lose out if the European Central Bank does not cut euro zone rates much more. Sign up here. "Markets are probably realising that there will be no further cuts by the ECB and this is offsetting expectations of Fed resuming its easing path," said James Rossiter, head of global macro strategy at TD Securities in London. Money markets are pricing in just a 40% chance of the ECB cutting by 25 bps by June 2026 from around 50% last week. STOCKS SCALE NEW HEIGHTS The markets' mood has been buoyant over the past few sessions and stocks scaled new highs on Wall Street on expectations of imminent Fed rate cuts. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were up 0.2%, pointing to another rally at the opening bell, after both indexes scaled all-time highs in Monday's trading session. Futures already have over 127 bps worth of Fed cuts priced in by July 2026, meaning the bar could be high for policymakers to keep investors optimistic. "There do seem to be quite a few rate cuts priced in now. On balance, maybe that suggests that the bar for a hawkish surprise is a little lower than that for a dovish one," said Thomas Mathews, head of markets for Asia Pacific at Capital Economics. "It's likely though that the Fed will stick with its cautious communication approach and not give much away." With so much focus on the Fed decision, markets hardly reacted to news that the U.S. Senate narrowly confirmed Stephen Miran to the central bank's Board of Governors, and a U.S. appeals court separately declined to let President Donald Trump fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook. Neither move was seen as likely to shift the needle for the Fed's decision on Wednesday, where a 25-basis-point cut is fully priced in. The Bank of Canada is also expected to cut rates by a quarter point this week, and the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England are both expected to hold rates steady. Elsewhere, U.S. and Chinese officials said on Monday they had reached a framework agreement to switch short-video app TikTok to U.S.-controlled ownership which will be confirmed in a Friday call between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. PRESSURE ON THE DOLLAR The Fed cut bets have in turn kept pressure on the dollar, which on Tuesday fell to its lowest since July 4 against a basket of currencies . Euro traded near its highest since early July, which in turn was the highest since September 2021. It was up 0.4% at $1.1811. Sterling climbed to its highest in over two months at $1.3641. U.S. Treasury yields were little changed after falling in the previous session, with the two-year yield last at 3.5345%. The benchmark 10-year yield was almost flat at 4.0432%. Oil prices extended their rise from the previous session, as investors assessed the impact of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries. Brent crude futures were up 0.5% at $67.79 per barrel. U.S. crude futures rose 0.8% to $63.74 a barrel. Spot gold reached a new record high just below $3,700 an ounce, supported by a weaker dollar and expectations for a Fed rate cut. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-3-2025-09-16/

2025-09-16 04:31

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Rae Wee The U.S. Federal Reserve kicks off its two-day policy meeting later on Tuesday where an interest rate cut is all but priced in, at a time when the central bank faces unprecedented pressure from the White House over the direction of monetary policy. Sign up here. The U.S. Senate on Monday narrowly confirmed Stephen Miran to the Fed's Board of Governors, handing President Donald Trump's top economic adviser one of 12 interest rate-setting votes on the eve of the policy meeting. Miran will join the meeting pending completion of paperwork and his swearing-in. Also able to attend the meeting - absent a last-minute Supreme Court intervention - is Fed Governor Lisa Cook after a U.S. appeals court on Monday said Trump could not fire her. Markets hardly reacted to the news yet the developments were a reminder of how Trump is putting his stamp on the bank and reshaping its standing in the eyes of the public and peer institutions, and influencing policy and other decisions. Ahead of Wednesday's Fed outcome, markets were largely in wait-and-see mode, with stocks scaling fresh highs in Asia while the U.S. dollar struggled to make headway. Markets have fully priced in a 25 basis-point cut with some pricing in a slim chance of a 50 bp move, against a backdrop of Trump calling for the Fed to deliver a "bigger" cut. The Fed aside, investors will also have UK labour market data and U.S. retail sales figures to chew on later on Tuesday. Still-elevated wage growth in Britain continues to be a source of concern for the Bank of England, even as the broader labour market shows signs of cooling. Overall average weekly earnings, excluding bonuses, likely grew 4.8% over May-July, versus 5.0% for April-June, while the unemployment rate is forecast to have stayed steady at 4.7%. The BoE is widely expected to keep its benchmark interest rate on hold later this week as the rate of inflation creeps up, but is likely to cut once next quarter and again early next year, showed a Reuters poll of economists. Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-view-europe-2025-09-16/

2025-09-16 03:04

MUMBAI, Sept 16 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is expected to open higher on Tuesday, buoyed by the dollar's struggles in the run-up to the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy decision, with traders watching out for potential hints on further rate cuts. The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee will open in the 88.12-88.14 range versus the U.S. dollar, compared with Monday's level of 88.21. Sign up here. The rupee has managed to recover after sliding to a record low of 88.4550 on Friday. However, bankers did not cite any specific trigger for the recovery, noting instead that broader Asian currencies have been performing well and that risk appetite remains firm. They further suggested positioning adjustments may have played a role. Flows have turned "more two-way" after the lifetime low, and positioning possibly is lighter, a currency trader at a private sector bank said. "It's just a modest pullback (in dollar/rupee). However, the tide does look a bit better for the rupee, though it hasn't really turned in its favour yet," he said. If the Fed turns more dovish than the market is braced for, it could squeeze dollar longs and hand the rupee the needed tailwind, he added. Market participants downplayed the near-term impact of a Bloomberg report that JPMorgan will cut the weight of top bond issuers in its flagship EM index, noting that any reallocation of flows away from India and China toward smaller countries would be a slow process. POSITIVE ASIAN CUES Asian currencies and equities advanced on Tuesday and the dollar index slipped, with focus squarely on the Fed meeting. The central bank is widely expected to deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut on Wednesday, with investors watching closely for signals on the depth of future reductions. Investors are currently pricing in two additional rate cuts by the Fed following Wednesday’s decision, expected at the October and December meetings. KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 88.28; onshore one-month forward premium at 12 paise ** Dollar index down at 97.26 ** Brent crude futures rise 0.2% to $67.6 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.04% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors bought a net $115.8 mln worth of Indian shares on September 12 ** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $198.9 mln worth of Indian bonds on September 12 https://www.reuters.com/world/india/rupee-push-higher-dollar-weakness-lead-up-fed-meeting-2025-09-16/

2025-09-16 02:56

TOKYO, Sept 16 (Reuters) - Japan's Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said on Tuesday the government will carefully consider what measures would be most effective in pressuring Russia, while noting challenges in imposing higher tariffs on countries buying Russian oil. His comments come after the U.S. urged the Group of Seven nations on Friday to impose tariffs on buyers of Russian oil during a call with G7 finance ministers as they discussed further sanctions on Russia. Sign up here. "It's important that Japan thoroughly consider what measures would be most effective and coordinate with other G7 countries," Kato said in a regular press conference. However, Kato said it would be difficult to impose higher tariffs on specific countries just for their purchases of Russian oil, as long as they comply with the World Trade Organization rules. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/japan-will-carefully-consider-measures-pressure-russia-finance-minister-says-2025-09-16/