2025-09-15 05:46

Slew of central bank meetings on deck, focus on the Fed Dollar weakens ahead of expected U.S. rate cut Euro dips after France's credit rating downgrade Yuan steady despite bleak Chinese economic data SINGAPORE, Sept 15 (Reuters) - The dollar slipped on Monday ahead of a pivotal week filled with central bank decisions headlined by the Federal Reserve, while the euro hardly reacted to Fitch's downgrade of France's credit rating. Trading in Asia was thinned with markets in Japan closed for a holiday, leaving currencies mostly rangebound over the course of the session. Sign up here. The euro came under slight pressure and last traded 0.04% lower at $1.1729, though investors largely shrugged off Friday's announcement from Fitch downgrading France's sovereign credit score to the country's lowest level on record. The move strips the euro zone's second-largest economy of its AA- status as it grapples with political crisis and ballooning debt. Still, much of investors' attention this week will be on the slew of rate decisions in the U.S., Japan, United Kingdom, Canada and Norway that could set the tone for markets, with the Fed taking centre stage. Expectations of a rate cut from the Fed on Wednesday have weighed on the dollar in recent times, and it declined 0.08% against a basket of currencies to 97.58 on Monday. Sterling rose 0.11% to $1.3565, while the Aussie dollar rose 0.23% to $0.6663, flirting with a 10-month high hit on Friday. "We are calling for a 25-basis-point cut from the FOMC this week, which is more than fully priced," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. Just as important will be Fed members' "dot plot" projections for rates and guidance from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on the extent and pace of any further easing. "In order to have an impact on currencies, Powell will have to out-dove the market by giving quite explicit hints about follow-up rate cuts. And if the FOMC does deliver an outsized 50-basis-point cut, that could also push the dollar down quite significantly, unless he suggests that there is a limited chance of follow-up cuts," said Kong. Elsewhere, the yen strengthened more than 0.1% to 147.44 per dollar, ahead of the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) policy meeting later in the week. While the BOJ is expected to stand pat on rates, focus will similarly be on comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda on the future policy path. "The JPY continues to underperform in the near-term undermined by the pick-up in political uncertainty in Japan after PM Ishiba resigned," said analysts at MUFG in a note. "The BOJ would have to provide a signal that a rate hike could be delivered as soon as next month to trigger a reversal of JPY weakness." In other currencies, the New Zealand dollar was up 0.15% to $0.5964. The onshore yuan got a slight lift from a weaker greenback and last stood at 7.1213 per dollar, despite Monday's grim economic data which showed China's factory output and retail sales in August logged their weakest growth since last year. Also on investors' radars were talks between U.S. and Chinese officials. They concluded a first day of talks in Madrid on Sunday on their strained trade ties and a looming divestiture deadline for Chinese short-video app TikTok, amid Washington's demands that its allies place tariffs on imports from China over its purchases of Russian oil. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/dollar-eases-ahead-central-bank-bonanza-eyes-fed-2025-09-15/

2025-09-15 05:44

Wall St futures up 0.1%, Nikkei closed for holiday Euro shows little reaction to Fitch downgrade of France Rate cuts seen from Fed, BoC; steady for BoE, BOJ SYDNEY, Sept 15 (Reuters) - Asian shares steadied near four-year highs on Monday ahead of an action-packed week that is seemingly certain to see the U.S. Federal Reserve resume its easing cycle, and perhaps leave the door wide open to a series of cuts. The Bank of Canada is also expected to cut rates by a quarter point this week, while the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England also meet and are both expected to hold rates steady. Sign up here. European stocks are headed for a slightly firmer open, with EUROSTOXX 50 futures 0.3% higher. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were both up 0.1%. Markets are 100% priced for an easing of 25 basis points from the Fed, taking its funds rate to 4.0-4.25%, with futures implying just a 4% chance of 50 basis points. Just as important will be Fed members' "dot plot" projections for rates and guidance from Fed Chair Jerome Powell on the extent and pace of any further easing. Futures already have 125 basis points of cuts priced in by late 2026, so anything less than dovish will disappoint investors. "The key question for the September FOMC meeting is whether the Committee will signal that this is likely the first in a series of consecutive cuts," said David Mericle, chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs. "We expect the statement to acknowledge the softening in the labor market but do not expect a change to the policy guidance or a nod to an October cut." U.S. President Donald Trump continued his attacks on the central bank on Sunday, saying Powell was incompetent and hurting the housing market. A holiday in Japan made for some thin trading conditions in Asia on Monday, with the euro showing scant reaction to Fitch's downgrade of France. The single currency was holding steady at $1.1732 , a short way from its recent top of $1.1780. The dollar was off 0.15% on the yen at 147.44 , but well within the 146.22 to 149.13 range of the past month or so. The euro has been underpinned by a steady outlook for EU rates, with the European Central Bank signalling last week it was in a "good place" on policy. A host of ECB officials are due to speak this week, including President Christine Lagarde. CHINA DATA MISSES While the Nikkei (.N225) , opens new tab was shut for the holiday, futures stood at 44,520, just below the cash close of 44,768, having climbed more than 4% last week. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) , opens new tab was last flat, although it did hit a new four-year high earlier in the session. South Korea's market (.KS11) , opens new tab rose 0.4% to hit another record high after the government scrapped a plan to raise taxes on stock investment. Chinese shares outperformed, with blue chips (.CSI300) , opens new tab up 0.5% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index (.HSI) , opens new tab 0.2% higher as investors redoubled bets on Chinese tech shares amid Sino-U.S. trade talks. U.S. and Chinese officials concluded a first day of talks in Madrid on Sunday on their strained trade ties, and will resume them later on Monday. Trump said he was still negotiating on the divestiture deadline for Chinese short-video app TikTok. Data released on Monday showed the Chinese economy lost some momentum in August, with a slew of activity indicators - from industrial output to retail sales - coming below forecasts. Falls in property investment deepened, while home prices declined another 0.3% in August, extending a downward trend that has persisted since early 2023. "Given the slowdown of the past few months, we expect that there's a strong case for additional short-term stimulus efforts," said Lynn Song, ING's chief economist, Greater China. "We continue to see a high possibility for another 10bp rate cut and 50bp reserve-requirement-ratio cut in the coming weeks." In the commodities market, oil prices extended gains on Monday as investors assessed the impact of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries that could disrupt its crude and fuel exports. Brent rose 0.5% to $67.33 a barrel, while U.S. crude firmed 0.5% to $63 per barrel. Gold was flat at $3,644 an ounce , not far from last week's all-time high of $3,673.95. The cash Treasuries market was closed due to the holiday in Japan. Yields on 10-year Treasuries last stood at 4.07%, having hit a five-month low of 3.994% last week as a run of soft labour data added to the case for aggressive Fed easing. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-2025-09-15/

2025-09-15 05:18

Sept 15 (Reuters) - The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Paul Atkins vowed to give businesses notice of technical violations before "bashing down their door", marking a shift away from aggressive enforcement actions, according to a Financial Times interview published on Monday. "I think a lot of people rightly criticised the SEC," said Atkins. "Especially in more recent years it was not grounded in precedent or predictability. It would shoot first and then ask questions later," Atkins told the newspaper. Sign up here. "What I am trying to address is a market perception that there was a lack of due process, a lack of notice, a lack of rule of law." Earlier this month, the SEC unveiled its rule-making agenda for the upcoming months, which could see broad proposals to revamp cryptocurrency regulations and reduce rules Wall Street has decried as being overly burdensome. The focus on cryptocurrency by Atkins highlights President Donald Trump's pledge to be a "crypto president" and promote the adoption of digital assets. Atkins told the FT that most tokens are not securities and wants to develop rules that would allow investors to trade tokenised versions of shares and bonds - synthetic versions of securities that have the same legal rights but can trade 24/7 using blockchain technology. This marks a stark departure from the policies of former President Joe Biden, who in a bid to protect Americans from fraud and money laundering, cracked down on the crypto industry. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/sec-notify-businesses-technical-violations-before-taking-action-ft-reports-2025-09-15/

2025-09-15 04:39

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Gregor Stuart Hunter Sure enough, you wait ages for a central bank meeting, and then they come along all at once. Sign up here. Okay, yes, fine, we had the ECB last week. But this week sees the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and a host of other central banks from Toronto to Taipei deciding on interest rates. The Fed holds its latest policy meeting with a historic challenge to its leadership pending in the courts and a rushed effort underway to confirm President Donald Trump's nominee to fill an open seat on its Board of Governors, which should provide some resolution to questions over the central bank's independence that have bubbled throughout the summer. Markets are fully pricing in a 25-basis-point-cut on Wednesday, but have reined in expectations of a jumbo 50 bps reduction to just 3.8%, according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool. They started the week gently enough, with stocks in Asia (.MIAPJ0000PUS) , opens new tab floating 0.1% higher with Japanese markets closed for a holiday, and South Korea's Kospi index (.KS11) , opens new tab hitting a new record as the government scrapped plans to hike taxes on capital gains. In early European trades, the pan-region futures were up 0.11%, German DAX futures were flat, and FTSE futures slipped 0.1%. OAT futures extended declines for a second day after Fitch downgraded France's credit rating on Friday. The S&P 500 e-minis U.S. stock futures were up 0.1% ahead of Friday's Triple Witching event, which sees the expiry of single-stock options, as well as equity index futures and options. The U.S. and Britain are preparing to announce agreements on technology and civil nuclear energy during U.S. President Donald Trump's unprecedented second state visit this week, as the UK hopes to finalise steel tariffs under a much-vaunted trade deal. In other trade news, U.S. and Chinese officials concluded a first day of talks in Madrid on Sunday on their strained trade ties, and will resume them later on Monday. Trump said he was still negotiating on the divestiture deadline for Chinese short-video app TikTok, with a source telling Reuters the U.S. is expected to again extend a September 17 deadline for China's ByteDance to divest its U.S. assets. Data on Monday showed the Chinese economy lost some momentum in August, with a slew of activity indicators coming below forecasts. Its industrial output expanded at 5.2%, slowing from the 5.7% pace of the previous month, while retail sales rose only 3.4% from a year ago. Elsewhere in China, there were worrying signs that the red-hot Labubu bubble may be starting to burst. Plushie-maker Pop Mart (9992.HK) , opens new tab shares sank as much as 9% in Hong Kong after J.P. Morgan downgraded the shares to neutral, saying the stock is priced for perfection, and vulnerable to setbacks. Analysts from the Wall Street bank expressed disappointment over the lack of visibility for the next iteration of the brand, such as the release timeline for new animations or interactive toys. Give the people what they want, Pop Mart! Key developments that could influence markets on Monday: Economic data: Euro zone trade balance for July Euro zone reserve assets for August Debt auctions: France: 4-month, 5-month, 6-month and 1-year government debt auctions Germany: 1-year government debt auction https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-view-europe-2025-09-15/

2025-09-15 02:55

MUMBAI, Sept 15 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is likely to open flat on Monday, as traders balance certainty around a Federal Reserve rate cut with ongoing headwinds from U.S. trade tariffs. The one-month non-deliverable forward points to the rupee opening largely unchanged from Friday’s level of 88.2750. Sign up here. The currency tumbled to a record 88.4550 last Thursday, with traders flagging thin exporter hedging, a possible outflow and lacklustre portfolio flows. Importers were quick to hedge on any recovery in the rupee, keeping the currency under persistent pressure. Market participants believe the Reserve Bank of India has been intervening, leaning against the rupee's weakness to keep moves orderly and avoid a deeper sell-off. "With the way flows are shaping up, the rupee has little room to recover," said a dealer at a state-run bank. "The RBI's likely presence is helping to contain the pressure and prevent a bigger shakeout." Support from the RBI and muted moves in other Asian peers have limited the rupee’s losses to just 0.1% so far this month, despite the fresh record lows. However, it remains the worst-performing major Asian currency in September. ALL ABOUT FED Forex markets will be squarely focused on the Fed's policy decision on Wednesday, where a 25-basis-point rate cut is fully priced in. Analysts say the bigger driver will be the Fed’s guidance, including its dot plot and commentary on the path ahead. The main shift since the Fed’s last meeting has been signs of softness in the U.S. labor market, with the July and August jobs reports disappointing. That has investors betting on a cut this week and further easing in October and December. The key question for the September Fed meeting is whether policymakers will signal that this is likely the first in a series of consecutive cuts, Goldman Sachs said in a note. While Goldman expects the Fed statement to acknowledge the softening in the labor market, it does not expect a change to the policy guidance or a nod to an October cut. KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 88.36; onshore one-month forward premium at 12 paise ** Dollar index down at 97.62 ** Brent crude futures up 0.5% at $67.3 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.07% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $386.7mln worth of Indian shares on Sept. 11 ** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $4.2mln worth of Indian bonds on Sept. 11 https://www.reuters.com/world/india/fed-cut-certainty-tariff-worries-keep-rupee-boxed-2025-09-15/

2025-09-15 00:52

Ukraine attacks more Russian energy facilities over weekend US-China officials in Madrid for trade talks Fed September 16-17 policy meeting in focus SINGAPORE, Sept 15 (Reuters) - Oil prices were little changed on Monday as investors assessed the impact of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries that could disrupt its crude and fuel exports, while also eyeing U.S. fuel-demand growth. Brent crude futures edged up 3 cents to $67.02 a barrel by 0009 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $62.77 a barrel, up 8 cents. Sign up here. Both contracts gained more than 1% last week as Ukraine stepped up attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, including the largest oil exporting terminal Primorsk and the Kirishinefteorgsintez refinery, one of the two largest refineries in Russia. "The attack suggests a growing willingness to disrupt international oil markets, which has the potential to add upside pressure on oil prices," JPMorgan analysts led by Natasha Kaneva said in a note, referring to the attack on Primorsk. Primorsk has a capacity to load about 1 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude, making it a key export hub for Russian oil and the largest port in western Russia. The Kirishi refinery, operated by Surgutneftegaz (SNGS.MM) , opens new tab, processes about 17.7 million metric tons per year (355,000 bpd) of Russian crude, or 6.4% of the country's total. An oil company in Russia's Bashkortostan region will maintain production levels despite a drone attack on Saturday, regional governor Radiy Khabirov said. Pressure is mounting on Russia as U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated on Sunday that he is willing to impose sanctions on Russia but Europe has to act in a way that is commensurate with the United States. "Europe is buying oil from Russia. I don't want them to buy oil," Trump told reporters on Sunday. "And the sanctions ... that they're putting on are not tough enough, and I'm willing to do sanctions, but they're going to have to toughen up their sanctions commensurate with what I'm doing." Investors are also watching U.S.-China trade talks in Madrid that started on Sunday amid Washington's demands that its allies place tariffs on imports from China over its purchases of Russian oil. Last week, softer job-creation data and rising inflation in the U.S. raised concerns about economic growth in the world's largest economy and oil consumer even as the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates during its September 16-17 meeting. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-holds-gains-investors-eye-impact-attacks-russian-energy-facilities-2025-09-15/