2025-09-16 05:47

China's steel exports to grow by up to 9% this year - analysts Chinese steelmakers, traders pivot to new markets Exports may peak this year as protectionist backlash escalates - analysts BEIJING, Sept 16 (Reuters) - China's steel exports are set to hit an all-time high this year, defying predictions that unprecedented trade barriers would drive down shipments, and threaten to provoke an even fiercer protectionist backlash against the world's dominant producer. Exports will grow 4% to 9% this year to hit between 115 million and 120 million metric tons, according to forecasts from 11 analysts, all of whom had forecast earlier this year that exports would fall. Sign up here. Record exports from China, which produces more than half of the world's steel, underscore how its steelmakers and traders need new markets for metal that can no longer be absorbed at home, where consumption peaked in 2020 before the collapse of the property market. The drive also reflects worry among steelmakers that trade barriers will keep rising. Better to sell as much as possible now, the thinking goes, according to three analysts and a trader who spoke on condition of anonymity given the sensitivity of the issue in China. But that fear risks becoming self-fulfilling as the export drive reshapes global flows and spurs countries to close off their markets to support domestic steelmaking. Some 54 tariffs and other trade barriers have been initiated against Chinese steel from 2024, more than the total between 2019 and 2023, according to China Trade Remedies Information. Analysts say more exports will encourage further curbs. The European Union said earlier this month it would find new ways to curb steel imports. Mexico on Thursday unveiled a plan to raise tariffs on Chinese imports, including steel. PIVOT, PIVOT, PIVOT Steel exports last peaked in 2015, before rising trade barriers and a property market boom in China that stoked demand for steel in construction reversed the trend. This time, steelmakers are maintaining exports in part by pivoting to new markets where barriers are lower or nonexistent. China's largest listed steelmaker, Baoshan Iron & Steel (600019.SS) , opens new tab or Baosteel, said last month shipments to emerging markets in the Middle East, Central Asia and North Africa were growing rapidly, forecasting exports of 10 million tons this year. The country's steel exports to Saudi Arabia, Malaysia and Thailand climbed 24%, 14% and 13% respectively in the first seven months of this year from a year earlier. Malaysia imposed anti-dumping duties on some imports in July. However, China's exports to major trade partners Vietnam and South Korea, which have also imposed anti-dumping measures, fell by 20% and 10% in the first seven months, respectively, the state-backed China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) said in a note in late August. "It's such a brutal market for us traders ... Currently there are barely any orders from Vietnam and South Korea ... We have no choice but to develop new markets now," said an east China-based steel trader on condition of anonymity. China typically exports higher-value steel products, but steelmakers are increasingly turning to less complex products like steel billet - semi-finished blocks of raw metal - because they attract fewer tariffs. Exports of billet were three times higher in the first seven months of the year from a year earlier, while shipments of steel rebar, used in construction, surged by 77%. Hot-rolled thin wide steel strip, used in manufacturing and frequently subject to tariffs, slumped by 23%, customs data showed. The pivot to lower-value, unfinished products is dragging down the value of China's exports despite record volumes, said Alexis Ellender, senior lead, dry bulk insights at Kpler. Steel exports rose 10% by volume in the first eight months of the year but fell 1% in dollar value, customs data showed. "The increase in semis exports is often a sign that exports are close to peaking. It means semis can be more profitable than exporting finished steel. It shows a market under pressure," said Tomas Gutierrez, head of data at consultancy Kallanish Commodities. THE PEAK Rising exports of semi-finished products are also drawing opposition from the Chinese government. Beijing wants steelmakers to add value and is weighing higher export taxes to discourage shipments of lower-value steel. That plus a new wave of protectionism means exports will likely peak this year, some analysts predict. "Overseas markets are saturated and trade barriers are proliferating. It won't get any easier to sell overseas," said Gutierrez. Kpler expects China's steel exports to retreat to between 100 million and 105 million tons in 2026. Three analysts forecast volume to fall slightly below 100 million. At around 100 million tons, exports would still outrank every country's steel production other than India. "This year, we have encountered record trade disputes including anti-dumping duties," Baosteel general manager Baojun Liu said in an earnings call last month. "But as a steel company at the current scale, we must export." https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-steel-exports-poised-record-high-risking-further-tariff-backlash-2025-09-16/

2025-09-16 05:33

MUMBAI, Sept 16 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee advanced slightly on Tuesday to its strongest level in a week, tracking gains in regional currencies, as the dollar remained on the defensive amid wagers that the U.S. Federal Reserve will deliver a rate cut this week. The rupee rose to a peak of 88.05 per U.S. dollar in early trading and was last up 0.15% on the day at 88.08. Sign up here. Asian currencies rose between 0.1% and 0.4%, with China's yuan briefly revisiting a more than 10-month high of 7.1145 against the U.S. dollar. The Fed is expected to resume its easing cycle this week and potentially leave the door open to further rate cuts, with investors focusing on policymakers' "dot plot" projections for rates and guidance from Chair Jerome Powell. Against a basket of major peers, the dollar was down 0.1% at 97.22. "We have been emphasising our view that the restart of the Fed's easing cycle, alongside concerns about its independence, should put downward pressure on the USD. This thesis will be tested with the outcome from the FOMC decision," analysts at HSBC said in a note. After touching a record low last week, the rupee appears on course to be rangebound in the near-term between 87.50 and 88.45, a trader at a mid-sized private sector bank said. Positive news flow or portfolio inflows could drive the currency above 88 but importers are likely to step in to buy dollars near those levels, the trader added. India and the United States will hold trade talks on Tuesday, New Delhi said, raising hopes for a breakthrough weeks after President Donald Trump imposed punitive tariffs on the South Asian nation for buying Russian oil. Elsewhere, a Bloomberg News report, which said JPMorgan will cut India's weightage in its emerging market bond index by 100 basis points to 9% from next year, had little bearing on debt and currency markets on Tuesday but could be a drag on sentiment. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/rupee-ticks-higher-tracking-asian-peers-importer-activity-may-limit-gains-2025-09-16/

2025-09-16 05:27

JAKARTA, Sept 16 (Reuters) - Feed millers in Vietnam are taking advantage of bargain prices for Canadian canola meal after China, the product's traditional buyer, curbed purchases by imposing hefty anti-dumping duties earlier this year, three traders said on Tuesday. Vietnamese millers have been importing around 30,000 metric tons a month of Canadian canola meal, used mainly in animal feed, for the past few months, two Singapore-based traders and one Ho Chi Minh-based trader told Reuters on the sidelines of an international industry conference in Jakarta. Sign up here. "The volumes are not huge as compared with what China was buying but shipments are heading to Vietnam," said one of the Singapore traders. "We expect more deals in the coming months." Vietnamese feed makers were paying $220 per metric ton, including cost and freight, for Canadian canola, compared to around $300-$310 per ton paid by Chinese buyers before the duties were imposed in March. The traders declined to be named as they were not authorised to speak to the media. Canadian officials had constructive talks with their Chinese counterparts about Beijing's duties during a recent visit, Prime Minister Mark Carney's office said in a statement on Friday. China, the world's largest importer of canola, imposed preliminary duties of 75.8% on Canadian canola seed imports in August. Earlier, Beijing had imposed a 100% retaliatory tariff on imports of rapeseed meal and oil from Canada, effective March 20. Some Canadian canola meal cargoes, which arrived in China after the 100% duty took effect and are now stuck in bonded warehouses, could be redirected to Vietnam, traders said. Up to 400,000 metric tons of canola meal are sitting in secure warehouses near Chinese ports, with importers facing a 100% duty if they release the cargoes for sale in the domestic market. "Trading companies which have Canadian canola lying in China are trying to sell to feed companies in Vietnam," said the second Singapore trader. "But the demand is not very big." https://www.reuters.com/world/china/vietnamese-feed-makers-buying-canadian-canola-meal-after-china-duties-sources-2025-09-16/

2025-09-16 05:25

New Delhi, Sept 16 (Reuters) - Gold's stellar rally to successive record highs shows every sign of continuing for the rest of the year, but a healthy correction is on the cards before breaching the $4,000 per ounce milestone in 2026, traders and industry experts said. Strong tailwinds such as expectations for monetary easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve, lingering geopolitical tensions, worries over the Federal Reserve's independence, and strong central bank purchases have prompted investors to flock to the precious metal. Sign up here. "The long-term gold bull run looks intact, as demand, particularly from central banks and ETFs, continues to rise at a faster pace," Renisha Chainani, head of research at Mumbai-based refiner Augmont said, on the sidelines of the India Gold Conference in New Delhi. "But gold is currently in overbought territory and may see a 5-6% correction in the short term, before consolidating and rising again to reach new highs above $4,200 in 2026," she said. Spot gold was trading around $3,680 per ounce on Tuesday after hitting a record $3,689.27 earlier in the session, having gained about 40% so far this year, following a 27% jump in 2024. Nearly all industry participants at the conference were expecting gold's bull run to continue into 2026 on a reduction in U.S. interest rates, strong investment demand and geo-political risks. "Analysts have been hedging prices to reach $4,000 in 2026. But it's really difficult to say, because every projection that we've looked at the price has gone to that level much faster than we expected," said Nicholas Frappell, global head of institutional markets at ABC Refinery. The U.S. central bank is widely expected to cut interest rates at the end of their monetary policy meeting on September 17. Trump has been pushing the Fed to cut rates and has repeatedly criticised Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for acting too slowly. Gold, traditionally known as a favoured hedge against geopolitical and economic risks, also thrives in a low-interest rate environment. "Gold prices are in uncharted territory, having not spent too much time in the $3,400's and $3,500's," said Philip Newman, managing director at consultancy Metals Focus, adding the firm expects prices to climb to around $3,800 at the end of the year. "We could see a potential correction ahead after this price rally, but we also see that as a buying opportunity for investors who are waiting on the sidelines to get into the market. We could see gold prices scale above $4,000 in 2026." SILVER BREAKOUT Silver, both an investment asset and an industrial metal used in electronics and solar panels, has performed well on the back of gold's strength and firm physical demand amid deficit worries. The metal was trading at around $42.50 per ounce on Tuesday, its highest level in 14 years. "Besides the usual industrial use, growing investor interest has been giving silver prices a solid push," said Chirag Thakkar, chief executive of Amrapali Group Gujarat, a leading silver importer. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/gold-uptrend-intact-due-correction-before-topping-4000-2026-2025-09-16/

2025-09-16 05:17

LITTLETON, Colorado, Sept 16 (Reuters) - The outlook for wind speeds around the United Kingdom this autumn and winter will likely be decisive for the UK's gas market over the coming months, with potentially far-reaching consequences for Europe's gas and power arenas. Any extension of the below-normal wind farm output seen so far this year could trigger a steep rise in gas use by UK power firms heading into winter, with tighter gas supplies and higher gas prices a likely outcome. Sign up here. A strong late-year rebound in UK wind power output, however, could lead to reduced domestic gas use by UK power firms, and potentially higher gas and power exports by the UK during Europe's key gas consumption period over the winter. SUB-PAR 2025 FOR WIND... SO FAR Monthly UK wind electricity generation fell below the year-before output total during six of the first eight months of 2025, data from Ember shows. Total wind electricity output so far this year was just over 48 terawatt hours (TWh), which was 8.3% or 4.3 TWh less than during the same months in 2024. The wind output total for the January through August stretch was the lowest for that period since 2022, and resulted in wind farms accounting for the lowest share of the UK's electricity generation mix since 2022. Wind farms generated 31.9% of the UK's utility-scale electricity supplies during January to August, compared to close to 35% for the same months in 2024. GAS OFFSET To offset the dip in output from UK wind farms, UK power firms dialled up gas-fired power generation by 17.5% from the same months last year, and to the highest in two years. The closure of the UK's last remaining coal-fired power plant last September also helped boost gas-fired generation this year, and also led to the highest power generation total on record from the UK's diesel-fired power stations. Gas-fired power accounted for 33% of UK utility electricity generation, which is up from a 29% share during the same period in 2024. Going forward, gas will remain the UK power sector's main source of dispatchable power, especially during periods when intermittent output from wind farms falls short of expectations. Gas will also be the power sector's main heating source during upcoming cold spells in the UK, where temperatures are forecast to trend lower going forward but should hold above the long-term average for the coming month, data from LSEG shows. SEASONAL UPSWINGS Both wind and gas generation tend to see upswings heading into the latter months of the year. Wind electricity production in particular has historically seen a sharp upturn during the final quarter of the year compared to the July to September quarter, as wind speeds at turbine level pick up with the change of season. Between 2019 and 2024, wind electricity generation in the UK during the final three months of the year jumped by an average of 65% compared to the average generation during the July to September quarter, Ember data shows. Wind power's share of the UK generation mix also historically increases notably as the year progresses, from an average of around 30% a month during the middle of the year to closer to 40% during the peak winter months. UK power generation from fossil fuel power plants also historically rises from mid-year into winter. Between 2019 and 2024, total fossil fuel electricity generation during the last three months of the year averaged around 18% more than the output levels during July to September, due to higher demand for heating in winter. Historically, both coal-fired and gas-fired power plants were cranked up to generate that higher power supply, but with the UK's coal plants now closed gas plants will do most of the wintertime heavy lifting going forward. TIGHT STOCKS A key constraint on UK gas generation potential during the coming winter will be the volume of gas supplies on hand during any sudden cold snaps which trigger a demand surge. Historically, the UK has relied mainly on its pipeline network from its own production fields and from exporter nations for its gas supplies, and so does not tend to maintain a large volume of inventories in domestic storage tanks. However, given the lack of back-up coal plants since late 2024, the UK power system is expected to increase the overall volume of gas it consumes during peak demand periods. That in turn is expected to put its existing supply networks under strain during any unexpected bouts of higher gas use, and lead to more regular drawdowns on existing stockpiles. Stock drawdowns have already been evident so far this year, with average inventories from January 1 through September 15 41% less than during the same period in 2024, and the lowest since 2021. Gas traders have historically used the months of September and October to rebuild stockpiles ahead of the winter rush, and so still have time to stock up this year. And power firms can traditionally rely on greater power supplies from wind farms to meet much of any additional load requirements during cold and breezy days. But with UK wind output still consistently holding below year-earlier levels, some power suppliers may start to worry that wind output may remain stunted for the rest of 2025, and that higher gas generation will be needed to balance system needs. For gas traders, that in turn could trigger consistently above-normal gas demand through the end of the year, as well as periods of sharply higher gas demand whenever power demand spikes during cold snaps. Just how big the swings in gas use will be closely linked to wind farm output, which gas traders will need to watch more closely than ever during the coming autumn and winter. The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), your essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis of everything from swap rates to soybeans. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X , opens new tab. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uk-gas-traders-need-watch-how-wind-blows-this-winter-2025-09-16/

2025-09-16 05:14

Trump administration in biggest maritime push in decades China's global ports seen as strategic risk in time of war Beijing says follows framework of international law LONDON, Sept 16 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is on a mission to weaken China's global network of ports and bring more strategic terminals under Western control, according to three sources familiar with the plan. The drive is part of the most ambitious effort to expand U.S. maritime influence since the 1970s and is designed to address growing fears in Washington that it would be at a disadvantage to China in the event of a conflict. Sign up here. Trump administration officials believe the U.S. commercial shipping fleet is ill-equipped to provide logistical support for the military in time of war and Washington's dependence on foreign ships and ports is excessive, the people said. Options the White House is considering include supporting private U.S. or Western firms to buy Chinese stakes in ports, the three people said. They did not mention any specific firms other than to cite BlackRock's (BLK.N) , opens new tab proposed deal to buy the port assets of Hong Kong's CK Hutchison (0001.HK) , opens new tab in 23 countries, including by the Panama Canal, as a good example. The sources asked not to be named because they are not authorised to discuss the matter publicly. The White House and U.S. Treasury did not respond to requests for comment. Besides Panama, U.S. officials and lawmakers are concerned about Chinese maritime infrastructure holdings in places including Greece and Spain, the Caribbean, and U.S. West Coast ports, according to the sources. China conducts normal co-operation with other countries within the framework of international law, a spokesperson with China's diplomatic mission in Washington said. "China has always been firmly opposed to illegal and unjustifiable unilateral sanctions and so-called long-arm jurisdiction and moves that infringe on and undermine other countries' legitimate rights and interests through economic coercion, hegemonism and bullying," the spokesperson said. Officials in Beijing did not respond to a request for comment. "The U.S. government sees Chinese investments in global ports as a huge threat to its national security," said Stuart Poole-Robb, founder of risk and intelligence advisers KCS Group. "The concern is that China could leverage its control over these assets for espionage, military advantage or to disrupt supply chains during geopolitical crises," he said, citing conversations with U.S. security counterparts. GREEK PORT IN FOCUS The U.S. intends to look at Chinese interests in the Greek port of Piraeus, the three sources said. Situated in Athens, in the eastern Mediterranean, Piraeus is a pivotal hub on the trade route linking Europe, Africa and Asia. COSCO, one of China's biggest port and shipping groups, holds a 67% stake in the Piraeus Port Authority company. Some Chinese investors are concerned Washington may want to target COSCO's operations in Greece, a source close to Chinese investors involved in Greek shipping said. COSCO and the Greek government did not respond to requests for comment. Greek officials have told Reuters previously that they have not been informed about any plans to change control of Piraeus. Washington already has COSCO in its sights. The Department of Defense added state-owned COSCO to its blacklist , opens new tab of companies with links to the Chinese military in January. While the designation does not involve immediate bans on U.S. companies doing business with those listed, it can act as a signal that further action is being considered. "The United States intends to attack China's international influence by exaggerating the 'China threat theory' and use this as an excuse to force allies to take sides in supply chain arrangements," the Development Research Center of the State Council, an official think-tank of China's governing cabinet, said in a paper published last month. The U.S. administration has unveiled measures , opens new tab to increase America's thin commercial maritime presence around the world, including by encouraging domestic shipbuilding, is looking to expand access to U.S.-controlled shipping registries, and is also reviewing global maritime , opens new tabchokepoints for shipping risks. China owns or leases an extensive network of ports through companies including COSCO and other state-controlled enterprises such as China Merchants and SIPG in Shanghai. According to a report , opens new tab published last year by the Council of Foreign Relations, a U.S. think-tank, China had investments in 129 port projects worldwide through various companies, as of August 2024. China's shipbuilding industry is also estimated to be 230 times larger than U.S. shipyard capacity, meaning it could take decades to catch up, according to U.S. Navy estimates , opens new tab. The U.S. maritime push has contributed to tensions with Beijing, which sees port and shipping assets as integral to its Belt and Road initiative, at a time when the two superpowers are already at loggerheads over trade and tariffs. MEDITERRANEAN GATEWAY UNDER REVIEW In March, the U.S. Federal Maritime Commission launched a review of seven maritime chokepoints. It said it wanted to identify regulations, policies or practices "that create unfavourable shipping conditions". The Strait of Gibraltar, which separates Spain from Africa at the entrance to the Mediterranean Sea, was one such waterway the review is examining. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has sought to deepen trade ties with China and this has raised concerns in Washington over Beijing's access to its ports, two of the sources said. "We are not aware of any alleged concerns or approaches by third parties on this matter and therefore it is not appropriate for us to comment," a Spanish foreign ministry spokesperson said when asked for comment about Chinese port investments. COSCO has concessions to operate container terminals in Valencia and Bilbao, a Spanish Port Authority spokesperson said. Trump has taken numerous steps since returning to the White House to boost U.S. influence over the seas. He signed an executive order in April to revive shipbuilding capacity to expand the fleet of U.S.-controlled vessels. His administration is examining a proposal to establish a shipping registry in the U.S. Virgin Islands that could attract vessels to a U.S.-controlled flag without having to meet the stricter standards of the domestic U.S. registry. The U.S. is poised to start hitting Chinese-built or Chinese-flagged vessels with fees for calling at U.S. ports. And Trump has also flagged seizing the semi-autonomous Danish territory of Greenland as an objective, due to its proximity to the Arctic and key shipping lanes. Together, this all adds up to the most ambitious effort by the U.S. to improve its position in global shipping since President Richard Nixon, who tried to bolster domestic shipbuilding, the commercial ship registry, and U.S. sea power, the sources familiar with the plans said. "The U.S. in the short to medium term is likely to continue its efforts to counter Chinese influence in the key port areas by building alliances and partnerships to counter Chinese power and economic growth," said Poole-Robb at KCS. CARIBBEAN SHIPPING CONCERNS The United States has expressed concern too about Chinese investment in Jamaica's Kingston terminal, a key maritime transhipment hub in the Caribbean due to its location and deep-water port facilities, according to the three sources. China Merchants has a stake in the company operating Kingston's container terminal together with France's CMA CGM. Chinese metals group JISCO bought the Alpart alumina refinery in St Elizabeth west of the capital in 2016 and owns nearby Port Kaiser. A June analysis , opens new tab by the Center for Strategic & International Studies think-tank said China's presence in Kingston posed the greatest security risk to the United States out of all Beijing's port projects in Latin America and the Caribbean. On a visit to Kingston in March , opens new tab, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, described China's strategy as being characterised by "predatory practices", using government-subsidised companies to "underbid everybody" and acquire assets. The presence of equipment from untrusted suppliers in critical infrastructure throughout the world, including ports, increases the risk to U.S. national security, a State Department spokesperson said when asked about Rubio's comments. A spokesperson for Jamaica's ministry for foreign affairs and foreign trade said it had no knowledge of any U.S. communication or request about reducing China's maritime influence in the Caribbean nation. There was already some pushback against Chinese investment in the region during the first Trump administration. "I suspect that there's going to be increasing pressure from the U.S. for us to back off from any increasing engagement with China," said former Jamaican Prime Minister Bruce Golding, who helped bring Chinese investments into the Caribbean country. In the United States, meanwhile, COSCO has investments with local partners in container terminals at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. The White House did not respond to a request for comment about COSCO's U.S. investments. In Australia, U.S. private equity firm Cerberus, which was founded by U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense Stephen Feinberg, has shown interest in buying the lease for Darwin Port, a senior executive of the port's Chinese operator Landbridge said in May. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has pledged to return the strategic northern port to local ownership and reiterated during a visit to China in July that the government's position was very clear about wanting Australian ownership. Albanese's office referred Reuters to his previous comments. Feinberg has not been involved in any discussions or decisions regarding any acquisitions his former company may be interested in, a U.S. defense official said when asked for comment. Democratic and Republican lawmakers have been scrutinizing China's port ownership since the end of President Joe Biden's term, a U.S. port official familiar with the matter said. Speaking in February, Carlos Gimenez, chairman of the House Homeland Security Subcommittee on Transportation and Maritime Security, said: "America cannot, and will not, stand idly by while Communist China continues to undermine our interests at maritime ports." https://www.reuters.com/world/china/us-targets-chinas-grip-global-ports-sweeping-maritime-mission-2025-09-16/