2025-09-15 11:14

Sept 15 - Alaska Air (ALK.N) , opens new tab expects its quarterly profit to be at the low end of its previous forecast, as high fuel costs and operational challenges weigh on margins, the U.S. carrier said on Monday. Refinery outages on the U.S. West Coast have tightened fuel supplies and lifted prices. Alaska now expects to pay up to $2.55 per gallon, up from its earlier projections of about $2.45 per gallon. Sign up here. Alaska also flagged weather and air traffic control issues driving up costs such as passenger compensation and crew overtime expenses. Operational disruptions have increasingly pressured U.S. carriers this year, with storms and strained air traffic control capacity leading to costly disruptions across the industry. Alaska was also hit by a major IT outage in July that disrupted hundreds of flights and stranded thousands of passengers during the peak summer travel season. The airline later linked the outage to a faulty software update. Alaska now expects its third-quarter adjusted profit per share at the lower end of its previously issued forecast of $1 to $1.40. The airline, however, pointed to improving revenue trends on the back of strong premium demand and a rebound in corporate bookings. It said unit revenue, a key gauge of pricing power, was tracking toward the upper end of its prior forecast. https://www.reuters.com/business/alaska-air-estimates-third-quarter-profit-low-end-forecast-fuel-costs-2025-09-15/

2025-09-15 11:11

U.S. Fed two-day policy meeting begins on Tuesday Fed seen cutting rates for first time since December Doubts over Fed chair Powell's tone at FOMC meet - analyst Sept 15 (Reuters) - Gold was flat on Monday as investors refrained from placing big bets ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy meeting later this week, where the central bank is expected to cut interest rates and offer more insights on the pace of further easing. Spot gold held its ground at $3,644.07 per ounce, as of 1036 GMT. Bullion climbed about 1.6% last week, reaching a record high of $3,673.95 on Tuesday. Sign up here. U.S. gold futures for December delivery were down 0.1% at $3,681.0. "It is widely expected that the Fed will deliver a 25-bp rate cut. However, doubts remain over the tone Jerome Powell will adopt in his remarks at the end of the meeting and the guidance he will provide for future policy decisions," said Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at ActivTrades. Last week, data showed U.S. consumer prices increased by the most in seven months in August amid higher costs for housing and food, though a surge in first-time applications for jobless benefits last week kept the Federal Reserve on track to cut rates on Wednesday. USDIRPR/ Traders are pricing in a near-certain 25 basis point (bps) cut to the Fed's key interest rate at the conclusion of the two-day policy meeting on September 17, with a small chance of a 50 bps reduction, according to CME FedWatch tool , opens new tab. Non-yielding bullion, often considered a safe-haven asset during broader uncertainty, tends to perform well in a low-interest-rate environment. The Fed's meeting comes amid challenges, including a legal dispute over its leadership and U.S. President Donald Trump's efforts to exert more control over the interest rate policy and the central bank's broader role. For gold, "while we see the risks to our $4,000/toz mid-2026 forecast as skewed to the upside, rising speculative length raises the risk of tactical pullbacks, as positioning tends to mean-revert," Goldman Sachs said in a note on Friday. Elsewhere, spot silver was up 0.1% at $42.19 per ounce, platinum gained 0.5% to $1,396.40 and palladium rose 0.8% to $1,206.66. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-pauses-breath-investors-seek-fed-guidance-2025-09-15/

2025-09-15 11:07

NEW DELHI, Sept 15 (Reuters) - India and the United States will hold trade talks in New Delhi on Tuesday, weeks after President Donald Trump imposed punitive tariffs on the South Asian nation's exports, slowing its overall shipments to a nine-month low in August. India and the United States will "fast-track" trade talks, Rajesh Agarwal, India's chief negotiator and a special secretary in its commerce ministry, told reporters at an event for the release of trade data, but gave no details. Sign up here. U.S. trade representative for South Asia Brendan Lynch is set to make a one-day visit to New Delhi on Tuesday, Agarwal said. India's exports slowed to $35.10 billion in August from $37.24 billion in July, and its trade gap narrowed to $26.49 billion, from $27.35 billion in July. U.S. imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods over New Delhi's continued purchases of Russian oil starting August 27, taking the total on Indian exports to 50%, among the highest for any U.S. trading partner. Exports to the United States fell to $6.86 billion in August from $8.01 billion in July. New Delhi's shipments to Washington in the period from April to August stood at $40.39 billion. The full impact of higher tariffs from the United States on Indian goods imports will be felt next month as the punitive tariffs kicked in from August 27. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-us-hold-trade-talks-in-new-delhi-tuesday-negotiator-says-2025-09-15/

2025-09-15 11:00

Sept 15 (Reuters) - Futures for Canada's main stock index edged higher on Monday, kicking off a high-stakes week, as both the Bank of Canada and the U.S. Federal Reserve are expected to resume interest rate cuts. Futures on the S&P/TSX index SXFcv1 rose 0.16% to 1,733 points by 06:21 a.m. ET (1021 GMT). Sign up here. The benchmark index gave back part of its weekly gains on Friday, as investors turned cautious ahead of key interest rate decisions this week. Economists anticipate the BoC will cut its overnight rate by a quarter point on September 17, as the labour market deteriorates and economic activity weakens. They also expect one more cut next quarter. The Canadian central bank has maintained its benchmark rate at 2.75% since it was lowered in March. Meanwhile, the U.S. central bank is widely expected to ease its monetary policy by 25 basis points on Wednesday after a series of economic indicators pointed to a worsening jobs market in the world's biggest economy. Several other central banks will announce their policy decisions this week, including those in the UK and Japan. In commodities, gold was flat on Monday, while oil prices edged higher and copper prices firmed. In corporate news, Brookfield Asset Management (BAM.TO) , opens new tab is in talks to buy Yes! Communities, a U.S. firm, from the Singaporean sovereign wealth fund GIC for more than $10 billion, the Financial Times said on Sunday. FOR CANADIAN MARKETS NEWS, CLICK ON CODES: TSX market report Canadian dollar and bonds report CA/ Reuters global stocks poll for Canada , Canadian markets directory https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/tsx-futures-inch-up-amid-anticipation-central-bank-rate-cuts-2025-09-15/

2025-09-15 10:51

South Korea trade talks with U.S. have stalled due to FX issues Currency market too small for $350 bln fund, unlike Japan's case Hopes grow that bilateral currency swap line may offer solution SEOUL, September 16 - South Korea's negotiations with the U.S. on a trade deal to lower tariffs have stalled amid concerns over the foreign exchange implications of a $350 billion investment fund, part of an agreement reached with President Donald Trump in July. WHAT HAS JAPAN AGREED TO? South Korean officials, who had argued that the package would mostly comprise loans and guarantees with limited direct investment, said last week they could not accept terms similar to those of a $550 billion investment package finalised this month by Japan. Sign up here. Tokyo agreed to transfer money within 45 days after the U.S. selects a project, and that available free cash flows from investments would be split evenly until they reached an allocated amount, after which 90% would go to the U.S. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Thursday that there would be no flexibility for Seoul. "The Japanese signed the contract. The Koreans either accept that deal or pay the tariffs. Black and white, pay the tariffs or accept the deal." HOW IS SOUTH KOREA'S SITUATION DIFFERENT FROM JAPAN'S? Since South Korea's deal was announced in late July, there have been concerns among market participants that the resulting dollar demand will overwhelm the domestic currency market, depressing the won . Since suffering traumatic capital flight during a financial crisis in the late 1990s, South Korea has retained a tight grip on its currency market. It started opening it to foreigners last year but there is still no offshore market to trade the won. The daily average global won trade stood at $142 billion in 2022, compared with $1.25 trillion for the Japanese yen, according to a triennial survey , opens new tab by the Bank for International Settlements. The won accounted for 2% of global market share, against 17% for the yen. WHY IS IT SOUTH KOREA PARTICULARLY WORRIED? The won hit a 15-year low at the end of last year at around 1,476 to the dollar and now stands around 1,390. Market participants say the $40 billion needed by the state pension fund every year for its overseas investments is already a heavy burden on the currency. Citi estimated that the investment package would generate dollar demand of around $100 billion each year from 2026 to 2028. South Korea's economy is much smaller than Japan's. It had a current account surplus of $99 billion last year, compared with Japan's surplus of nearly $200 billion, and central bank foreign reserves of $416 billion in August, compared with Japan's $1.3 trillion. HOW IS SOUTH KOREA TRYING TO MITIGATE THE IMPACT? The idea of seeking a foreign exchange swap line with the U.S. was raised publicly by Presidential Policy Secretary Kim Yong-beom last week, when he said the yen's status as a key international currency and an unlimited swap line between Japan and the U.S. put Tokyo in a stronger position. Finance Minister Koo said last week there would be an announcement on foreign currency when tariff negotiations conclude and he told Reuters on Monday he thought the U.S. would "contemplate" a currency swap line, after a local media outlet said the government had passed the request to the U.S. WHICH COUNTRIES HAVE FX SWAP LINES WITH THE US? The U.S. Federal Reserve has standing swap line arrangements with the central banks of Canada, Britain, Japan, the European Union and Switzerland. It established temporary swap lines of $60 billion each with the Bank of Korea and eight other central banks in March 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. After the swap line expired in December 2021, the Fed offered the Bank of Korea a safety net of $60 billion through repurchase agreements, enabling it to borrow dollars with its holdings of U.S. Treasuries as collateral. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/why-south-korea-cannot-make-same-us-trade-deal-japan-2025-09-15/

2025-09-15 10:43

All 31 economists see rates left on hold at 5.00% on September 17 BENGALURU, Sept 15 (Reuters) - Indonesia's central bank will pause its easing cycle on Wednesday according to a Reuters poll of economists published a week after the removal of Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati rattled investor confidence and weakened the rupiah. Indrawati's sudden exit erased most of the rupiah's gains following a U.S. trade deal struck in mid-July, prompting the central bank to step in to steady the market. Even with that intervention, the currency has fallen about 1% since the trade agreement was agreed. Sign up here. The renewed currency pressure, coupled with back-to-back rate cuts in July and August, is likely to deter the central bank from lowering borrowing costs again, despite expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut rates just hours later. All 31 economists in the September 9-15 poll expected Bank Indonesia to leave its benchmark seven-day reverse repurchase rate (IDCBRR=ECI) , opens new tab unchanged at 5.00% when the two-day meeting concludes on September 17. The overnight deposit and lending facility rates were expected to remain steady at 4.25% and 5.75%, respectively. "The abrupt departure of the former finance minister has stoked fears over the government's commitment to fiscal discipline and sapped investor confidence. With the rupiah under renewed pressure, BI's priority is likely to shift back to external stability," said ANZ economist Krystal Tan. "Recent developments have further strengthened our call for a pause." While a pause appears certain, concerns are emerging about BI's independence. Under a 'burden-sharing' arrangement, the central bank will help the government programs by raising interest rates it pays on state deposits - a move some economists see as undermining monetary autonomy. Indonesia announced a 16.23 trillion rupiah ($989.3 million) stimulus package for the fourth quarter of 2025, underscoring the government's spending push. Asked about the risk of political influence over monetary policy, seven economists said they were somewhat worried, one said very worried and two said not worried. "The main idea of burden sharing is simply to help the government finance its ambitious spending plans linked to election promises with a limited multiplier effect. This phase of fiscal dominance suggests potential weakening of central bank independence," said Kunal Kundu, economist at Societe Generale. "But then again, why just blame Indonesia? One can see that in many parts of the world now." A separate Reuters poll in July showed more than 70% of economists, 36 of 50, said they were worried about the Fed's independence from political influence. "At this point, I'd say that I'm somewhat concerned about Bank Indonesia's independence," said Jason Tuvey, deputy chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics. "I'd become a lot more concerned if we explicitly saw calls from government officials for rate cuts, unexpected changes to the leadership at the central bank, or a return to primary-market government bond purchases." Despite those concerns, economists still expect the central bank to ease policy further once stability returns to the rupiah. Of the 25 economists with a year-end view on rates, 14 forecast a 25-basis-point cut to 4.75%, 10 anticipated two quarter-point cuts to 4.50%, and just one projected a 75-basis-point drop to 4.25%. "Risks are still skewed towards a cut should the currency stabilises quickly. The policy bias will likely stay dovish," said Adam Ahmad Samdin, economist at Oxford Economics. (Other stories from the September Reuters global economic poll) ($1 = 16,405 rupiah) https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/bank-indonesia-hold-rates-this-week-political-shake-up-hits-rupiah-2025-09-15/