2025-09-15 10:34

LONDON, Sept 15 (Reuters) - What matters in U.S. and global markets today By Mike Dolan , opens new tab, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets Sign up here. A pivotal week for big central bank decisions started quietly for world markets, with the U.S. Federal Reserve expected to deliver its first rate cut of the year and the only debate seemingly about whether it's a quarter point or 50 basis points. With the U.S. labor market softening, even as consumer price inflation remains sticky, the main question for investors is whether embattled Fed Chair Jerome Powell signals that Wednesday's cut is the start of a broader easing cycle. Futures have about 70 bps of Fed cuts priced over the three meetings to year-end and stock futures are flat to firmer ahead of Monday's bell. A Senate vote on President Donald Trump's latest Fed board nominee - White House adviser Stephen Miran - is due on Monday. * Along with the Fed, the Bank of Canada , opens new tab is also expected to trim rates this week - but the Bank of England and Bank of Japan are likely to hold steady. A wave of weak Chinese economic numbers , opens new tab for this month showed ebbing retail and industrial growth but merely reinforced expectations for more fiscal stimulus and markets were steady to firmer. The dollar was a touch lower as the week kicked off, with an eye on U.S. retail and industrial updates tomorrow and even as longer-term Treasury yields nudged higher. * Geopolitical and economic risks added to the mix. Fitch's expected downgrade of France's sovereign credit rating to A+ late on Friday underscored the fiscal strains in the euro zone's second-largest economy and the task facing its new Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu. But markets shrugged it off as Fitch's outlook switched to stable and the agency also raised Portugal's rating, while S&P Global upped Spain's. Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure pushed crude higher, meanwhile. * MSCI’s Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index hovered near four-year highs, while South Korea's Kospi hit another record after scrapping a planned tax hike on stock investments. U.S.-China trade talks resumed in Madrid as Washington presses allies to impose tariffs over Beijing’s Russian oil purchases and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said both sides are close to reaching an agreement on social media platform TikTok. Today's Market Minute * U.S. Democrats have asked the Trump administration to press China to curb "structural overproduction", essentially overhauling Beijing's economic model. * Delegations from the U.S. and China were set to continue their talks in Madrid into a second day on Monday over trade tensions and an imminent deadline for Chinese divestment from the short-video app TikTok. * The United States and Britain will announce agreements on technology and civil nuclear energy during U.S. President Donald Trump's unprecedented second state visit this week, as the UK hopes to finalise steel tariffs under a much-vaunted trade deal. * BP's recent discovery of a giant oilfield has reignited investor enthusiasm, suggesting that fears of ‘stranded assets’ may have receded, writes ROI energy columnist Ron Bousso. * China's surplus crude surged to just over 1 million barrels per day in August as robust imports and domestic production trumped an increase in refinery processing. Read the latest on China’s crude oil stockpiles from ROI columnist Clyde Russell. Chart of the day China's factory output and retail sales , opens new tab reported their weakest growth since last year in August, keeping pressure on Beijing to roll out more stimulus to buoy the world's second-largest economy just as the latest U.S. and Chinese trade negotiations in Madrid entered a second day. The disappointing data split economists over whether policymakers would need more near-term fiscal support to hit their annual growth target of "around 5%", with manufacturers awaiting more clarity on a U.S. trade deal and domestic demand curbed by a wobbly job market and property crisis. Weather has also not helped, with manufacturing activity affected by the hottest conditions since 1961 and the longest rainy season for the same period. Today's events to watch * New York Fed's September "Empire State" manufacturing survey (8:30 AM EDT) * U.S. Senate votes to confirm President Trump's Fed board nominee Stephen Miran * European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and ECB board member Isabel Schnabel both speak * European Council President Antonio Costa visits Cyprus ahead of the island assuming the rotating EU presidency in 2026 -- Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for the newsletter here. You can find ROI on the Reuters website , opens new tab, and you can follow us on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X. , opens new tab (The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters) https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/global-markets-view-usa-2025-09-15/

2025-09-15 10:12

MUMBAI, Sept 15 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee closed nearly flat on Monday, as the boost from a broadly weaker dollar was blunted by persistent hedging demand from importers and lacklustre foreign portfolio flows. The rupee closed at 88.21 against the U.S. dollar, marginally stronger from its close at 88.2750 in the previous session. Sign up here. While the currency rose to an intraday peak of 88.1475, traders pointed out that dollar demand from local importers, including oil companies, shaved its gains later in the session. Data released on Monday showed that India's merchandise trade deficit narrowed in August to $26.49 billion, from $27.35 billion in July, as exports slowed after U.S. President Donald Trump hiked import tariffs on Indian goods. India and the United States are slated to hold trade negotiations on Tuesday in New Delhi, a trade official said on Monday. India's benchmark equity indexes, the BSE Sensex (.BSESN) , opens new tab and Nifty 50 (.NSEI) , opens new tab closed down by about 0.2% each, diverging from a modest uptick in their Asian counterparts, as investors braced for a set of pivotal central bank policy decisions this week. Key rate decisions in the U.S., Japan, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Norway are due this week, with the Federal Reserve's decision on Wednesday taking centre stage. While money markets have fully priced in a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed on Wednesday, investors will pay close attention to commentary from Chair Jerome Powell and policymakers' updated economic and benchmark policy rate projections. The interest rate-expectations sensitive 2-year U.S. Treasury yield was steady at 3.55%. On the longer end of the curve, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was steady at 4.06%. "Any disappointment in the Fed's rate cut relative to the pace of cuts already priced, coupled with any renewed concerns about the fiscal situation, for instance, could quickly lead to a reversal higher in long bond yields," analysts at Standard Chartered said in a note. Meanwhile, dollar-rupee forward premiums were steady on the day with the 1-year implied yield at 2.33%, hovering near its highest level since May. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/rupee-ends-little-changed-importer-hedging-caps-lift-softer-dollar-2025-09-15/

2025-09-15 10:03

FRANKFURT, Sept 15 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank is increasing pressure on small banks to tackle loans that went sour more than six years ago by forcing them to set aside more money to cover potential losses. In guidelines published on Monday, the ECB said "less significant institutions" too, like their larger rivals, would have to make growing provisions for their stock of unpaid loans. Sign up here. Small banks had so far been exempted from this provisioning schedule. This has resulted in a lower coverage ratio, which measures provisions against so-called non-performing loans (NPL), than at larger banks. "Some smaller banks continue to face challenges stemming from persistent stocks of long-standing NPLs," Sharon Donnery, a member of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, said in a blog post, adding that they maintain fewer reserves to cover potential losses. The ECB's move follows an increase in NPLs - from 1.7% to 2.3% - on the book of smaller banks. The new guidelines will be phased in gradually until the end of 2028 and apply to loans originated before April 26, 2019. Banks with negligible amounts of bad loans will be exempted. The ECB will now consult the industry on the new guidelines until October 27. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/ecb-tells-small-banks-tackle-old-bad-loans-2025-09-15/

2025-09-15 09:31

JOHANNESBURG, Sept 15 (Reuters) - South Africa's longer-term inflation expectations fell to their lowest level on record, a quarterly survey showed on Monday, after the central bank said it would aim for a lower inflation level. Analysts, business people and trade unions now expect annual inflation to average 4.2% over the next five years, down from 4.4% in the second quarter survey. Inflation stood at 3.5% (ZACPIY=ECI) , opens new tab in July, the latest month for which data is available. Sign up here. "These downward revisions were made against the backdrop of the SA Reserve Bank's announcement of a change to the preferred inflation target at the end of July, just before the survey period," the Bureau for Economic Research, which conducts the survey, said in a report. The central bank, which commissions the survey, has been pushing for a formal change to its current inflation target range of 3% to 6%. At its last interest rate announcement it said it would start aiming for 3% inflation, rather than the middle of its target band, despite the finance minister not yet signing off on any official change to its target. Short-term inflation expectations were also revised down in the third-quarter survey, with forecasts for 2025 and 2026 averaging 3.8% and 4.2%, respectively, compared to 3.9% and 4.3% previously. The South African Reserve Bank's next interest rate announcement is scheduled for September 18. The majority of economists polled by Reuters expect the country's main lending rate (ZAREPO=ECI) , opens new tab to remain unchanged, given a modest uptick in inflation in July and possible further rise in August. Some analysts think the bank's stated preference for 3% inflation will also encourage it to maintain its repo rate after cuts in May and July. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/south-africas-longer-term-inflation-expectations-drop-record-low-2025-09-15/

2025-09-15 09:17

Sept 15 (Reuters) - Sterling gained against the dollar and the euro on Monday as investors braced for a week of pivotal central bank decisions in which the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates and the Bank of England to hold policy steady. Sterling rose to its highest level against the dollar since early July before paring gains. It was last at $1.3583. Against the euro , the pound was up 0.2% to 86.33 pence but remained within its recent range. Sign up here. Investors are focusing on this week's key rate decisions in the United States, Japan, Britain, Canada and Norway, with the Federal Reserve's decision on Wednesday taking centre stage. While the Fed is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points, the Bank of England is likely to keep its main interest rate on hold and announce a slow down in the pace at which it reduces its government bond holdings. Commentary from the policy decision is unlikely to spur a meaningful reaction in sterling as attention remains on Britain's autumn budget announcement, said Nick Rees, head of macro research at Monex Europe. Finance minister Rachel Reeves will deliver her annual budget on November 26. UK public finances remain weak and analysts say Reeves will have to raise taxes by at least 20 billion pounds ($27 billion) - and possibly double that - to remain on course to hit her own fiscal targets. Elsewhere, the dollar was a touch weaker against a basket of peers , with Goldman Sachs analysts saying the impending Fed rate cut should lead to fresh declines. The dollar has fallen nearly 10% so far this year against major peers. The U.S. economy's reduced outperformance relative to the world and the lower cost of hedging U.S. dollar assets for investors in Asia are among the factors that could contribute to fresh weakness in the dollar, the Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note. https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/sterling-firms-heading-into-busy-week-central-bank-decisions-2025-09-15/

2025-09-15 08:01

MOSCOW, Sept 15 (Reuters) - Russia on Monday warned European states that it would go after any state which sought to take its assets after reports that the European Union was floating the idea of spending billions of dollars worth of frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine. After President Vladimir Putin sent his army into Ukraine in 2022, the United States and its allies prohibited transactions with the Russian central bank and finance ministry and blocked $300-$350 billion of sovereign Russian assets, mostly European, U.S. and British government bonds held in a European securities depository. Sign up here. Reuters reported that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen wants the European Union to find a new way to finance Ukraine's defence against Russia using the cash balances associated with Russian assets frozen in Europe. Politico reported that the European Commission is mulling the idea of using Russian cash deposits , opens new tab at the European Central Bank from maturing bonds owned by Russia to fund a "Reparations Loan" for Ukraine. "If this happens, Russia will pursue the EU states, as well as European degenerates from Brussels and individual EU countries who try to seize our property, until the end of the century," former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev wrote on Telegram. Russia will pursue European states in "all possible ways" and in "all possible international and national courts" as well as "out of court", said Medvedev, who serves as deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council. Russia says any seizure of its assets amounts to theft by the West and will undermine confidence in the bonds and currencies of the United States and Europe. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/russia-warns-europe-we-will-go-after-any-state-which-takes-our-assets-2025-09-15/