2025-09-14 13:00
US central bank widely expected to cut rates on Wednesday Markets suggest 90% chance of 25 bp cut, 10% chance of 50 bps Fed meeting comes on heels of weak US employment reports NEW YORK, Sept 12 (Reuters) - Investors will look for the Federal Reserve to communicate how worried it is about the flagging U.S. labor market at its meeting next week and they expect the central bank to cut interest rates for the first time in nine months to shore up employment. On Thursday, inflation data came in slightly hotter than expected. Still, market players did not expect this would dissuade the Fed from easing rates on Wednesday, following several downbeat reports about U.S. job growth. Sign up here. More in doubt was the size of next week's cut and how much the Fed expects to decrease rates in the coming months. With some recent stability in trade and fiscal policy, "the Fed has moved back onto the front burner for investors going forward," said Chris Fasciano, chief market strategist at Commonwealth Financial Network. "Now that the labor market is weakening, the Fed becomes the dominant story for investors as to how they address that," Fasciano said. Expectations that the Fed will reduce interest rates have helped lift the major U.S. stock indexes to record highs, along with excitement over the potential of artificial intelligence, strong corporate earnings and calming fears about the economic fallout from President Donald Trump's tariffs. The benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab is up 12% so far in 2025. As of Thursday, Fed fund futures indicated that markets were expecting a 90% chance that the Fed lowers rates by 25 basis points in next Wednesday's policy decision, according to LSEG data. The balance of expectations left about a 10% chance for a larger-than-standard 50 bp cut. Of the 55 rate reductions in the fed funds rate since 1990, 60% of those have been 25 basis point cuts, according to Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. Of the 18 times the Fed has cut by 50 bps, all but one occurred during or just after recessions, Colas said in a research note. The one exception was in September 2024, which was the first of three cuts totaling 100 basis points last year, resulting in the current rate of 4.25%-4.5%. "Based on this history, which both the Fed and markets know, a 50 basis point cut would signal that the (Fed) is worried about the near future of the U.S. economy," Colas said in the note. As it stands, Fed fund futures were baking in expectations of 73 basis points of easing by December or nearly three standard cuts. The central bank on Wednesday will give its latest summary of economic projections, updating its view of the economy and monetary policy. As the Fed has held steady on rates so far in 2025, Chair Jerome Powell and other Fed officials have expressed wariness about Trump's import tariffs possibly leading to higher inflation as a reason for forestalling rate cuts. Data on Thursday showed the consumer price index rose 2.9% on an annual basis in August, including the biggest monthly rise since January. While the Fed has a dual mandate to ensure stable prices and maximum employment, investors will want to hear that the central bank is primarily focused on supporting the labor market, said Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment strategist at PNC Financial Services Group. After back-to-back weak monthly U.S. employment reports, a government revision this week showed the economy likely created 911,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months through March than previously estimated. "Those job revisions are just so extraordinary that it demands attention," Ma said. Markets want to hear that "there's a clear and pervasive shift to making sure that that weakness doesn't become worse." Wall Street will also focus on technology shares and the AI trade after Wednesday's 36% surge in shares of Oracle (ORCL.N) , opens new tab pushed the company's market value close to $1 trillion. The enterprise software maker's stunning stock gains were fueled by a wave of multi-billion-dollar cloud deals, showing the scramble for computing power in the AI race. The Oracle stock surge was "stunning from a market dynamic standpoint that such a large company would see a market reaction of that magnitude," PNC's Ma said. "It illustrates about the economy and about technology and about AI that these developments are taking place very fast." https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-week-ahead-investors-seek-feds-view-shaky-labor-market-rate-cut-looms-2025-09-12/
2025-09-14 10:15
Russia's Kirishi oil refinery attacked Russia says over 361 Ukrainian drones downed Ukraine says it carried out a 'successful strike' Russia flexes military muscle with hypersonic missiles MOSCOW, Sept 14 (Reuters) - Ukraine launched a big attack with at least 361 drones targeting Russia overnight, sparking a brief fire at the vast Kirishi oil refinery in Russia's northwest, Russian officials said on Sunday, reporting no injuries. As big powers talk about how to end the deadliest conflict in Europe since World War Two the drone war has escalated, with Russian drones downed in NATO-member Poland and attacks by Ukraine against oil refineries and pipelines in Russia, the world's second biggest oil exporter. Sign up here. Russia's defence ministry said at least 361 drones had been shot down by Russian air defence systems, including four guided aerial bombs and a U.S.-made HIMARS missile. It did not give details about the location of the attacks. Surgutneftegaz's (SNGS.MM) , opens new tab Kirishinefteorgsintez refinery, one of the top two refineries in Russia, was among the targets attacked by Ukrainian drones, Russian officials said. Alexander Drozdenko, the governor of the Leningrad region, said that three drones were destroyed in the Kirishi area and that a fire sparked by falling debris had been put out. He said no one was injured. Ukraine's drone command confirmed it attacked the refinery and said it had "carried out a successful strike". Reuters was unable to immediately verify the scale of the damage, if any, to the refinery. Kirishi refines about 17.7 million metric tons per year (355,000 barrels per day) of Russian crude, or 6.4% of the country's total. In recent weeks, the United States has stepped up pressure on NATO countries to tighten energy sanctions on Russia in a bid to curtail its revenues and help end the war with Ukraine — a conflict U.S. President Donald Trump has struggled to bring to a close. Trump said on Saturday that the U.S. is prepared to impose fresh energy sanctions on Russia , opens new tab, but only if all NATO nations cease purchasing Russian oil and implement similar measures. The EU is sticking to its deadline to phase out Russian oil and gas imports by 2028, it decided last week, despite pressure from the U.S. to move more quickly. Russia said on Sunday that it had fired a Zircon (Tsirkon) hypersonic cruise missile , opens new tab at a target in the Barents Sea and that Sukoi Su-34 supersonic fighter-bombers had carried out strikes as part of joint military exercises with Belarus. An oil company in Russia's Bashkortostan region will maintain production levels despite a drone attack on Saturday, regional governor Radiy Khabirov said. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ukraine-attacks-major-russian-refinery-with-big-drone-assault-2025-09-14/
2025-09-14 09:15
PARIS, Sept 14 (Reuters) - (This Sept 14 story has been corrected to say Sept 26, not Sept 25, in paragraphs 1 and 3 to reflect updated information from FNSEA) France's largest farm union FNSEA has called for a day of action on September 26 to protest against the planned EU-Mercosur free-trade deal with South American countries as well as U.S. tariffs, its president Arnaud Rousseau said in an interview with Le Journal du Dimanche. Sign up here. The union's plans increase the pressure on new Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu, who already faces a day of protests and strikes called by French trade unions for September 18. "We are calling for a major day of action on September 26 across all regions against Mercosur and the taxes imposed by Donald Trump and the flow of international imports that do not respect our rules," Rousseau said. The European Commission presented the EU's trade accord with South America's Mercosur bloc for approval this month and appeared to be softening opposition from France with promises of possible limits on farm product imports. Asked what he expected from Lecornu, Rousseau said: "I expect from Mr Lecornu what I already expected from his predecessors: a vision and a direction to provide answers to an agricultural sector plagued by doubt, giving us the capacity to take action in order to guarantee the country's sovereignty, particularly its food sovereignty." https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/sustainable-finance-reporting/french-farmers-union-fnsea-calls-day-protest-2025-09-14/
2025-09-14 07:07
Russia's Kirishi oil refinery attacked Russia says over 80 drones downed Russia says the fire at Kirishi has been put out Ukraine says it carried out a 'successful strike' MOSCOW, Sept 14 (Reuters) - Ukrainian drones attacked the Kirishi oil refinery in Russia's northwest, one of the country's biggest, sparking a fire when debris fell from a shot-down drone, Russian officials said on Sunday. As big powers talk about how to end the deadliest conflict in Europe since World War Two, the drone war is heating up with Russian drones downed in NATO-member Poland and attacks by Ukraine against the oil refineries and pipelines of Russia, the world's second biggest oil exporter. Sign up here. Surgutneftegaz's (SNGS.MM) , opens new tab Kirishinefteorgsintez refinery, one of the top two refineries in Russia, was attacked by Ukrainian drones, Russian officials said. Alexander Drozdenko, the governor of the Leningrad region, said that three drones were destroyed in the Kirishi area and that a fire sparked by falling debris had been put out. He said no one was injured. Ukraine's drone command confirmed it attacked the refinery and said it had "carried out a successful strike". Reuters was unable to immediately verify the scale of the damage, if any, to the refinery. Kirishi refines about 17.7 million metric tons per year (355,000 barrels per day) of Russian crude, or 6.4% of the country's total. Russia said that more than 80 Ukrainian drones were destroyed overnight. An oil company in Russia's Bashkortostan region will maintain production levels despite a drone attack on Saturday, regional governor Radiy Khabirov said. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ukraine-attacks-major-russian-refinery-with-drones-sparking-fire-2025-09-14/
2025-09-14 02:46
MOSCOW, Sept 14 (Reuters) - A fire has been put out at the Kirishi oil refinery in Russia's northwest, one of the country's largest, after debris fell from a downed drone, Alexander Drozdenko, the governor of the Leningrad region said on Sunday. He said no one was injured. Sign up here. Surgutneftegaz's (SNGS.MM) , opens new tab, Kirishinefteorgsintez refinery is one of the top two refineries in Russia. It refines about 17.7 million metric tons per year (355,000 barrels per day) of Russian crude, or 6.4% of the country's total. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/fire-put-out-russias-kirishi-oil-refinery-after-drone-attack-governor-says-2025-09-14/
2025-09-13 18:27
Two drones struck the site on Saturday, causing a fire Governor: operations will continue without reduction or stoppage Sept 13 (Reuters) - An oil company in Russia's Bashkortostan region will maintain production levels despite a drone attack on Saturday, regional governor Radiy Khabirov said. Ukraine has intensified strikes on Russian energy infrastructure in an effort to undermine Moscow’s military capabilities, as peace negotiations remain stalled. Sign up here. The attack triggered a fire at a facility operated by Bashneft (BANE.MM) , opens new tab, a subsidiary of Rosneft (ROSN.MM) , opens new tab, Russia's largest oil producer. Bashneft runs four major petrochemical and oil refining plants in the region. Khabirov did not specify which facility was targeted. "Both downed drones fell on the territory of the enterprise. In the first case, a small fire broke out, it was quickly extinguished. In the second case, the supply of technical water was interrupted," Khabirov said on Telegram. He added that there would be no reduction in output or operational stoppages, and the plant would continue functioning normally. His statement did not mention Ukraine. Unverified footage circulating on local Telegram channels showed an object flying into the facility, followed by a large fireball. The city of Ufa, where the facility is located, lies approximately 1,400 kilometers (870 miles) from the Ukrainian border. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/oil-company-russias-bashkortostan-will-continue-output-after-drone-attack-2025-09-13/
