2025-10-15 11:59
Analysts expect rise in US crude inventories US-China trade tensions risk disrupting global oil freight IEA predicts oil surplus in 2026 due to OPEC+ output rise NEW YORK, Oct 15 (Reuters) - Oil prices eased on Wednesday to a five-month low on escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and the International Energy Agency's prediction of a supply surplus in 2026. Brent crude futures fell 48 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $61.91 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures fell 43 cents, or 0.7%, to settle at $58.27. Those were the lowest settlements for both benchmarks since May 7 for a second day in a row. Sign up here. Bank of America said Brent prices could slip below $50 a barrel if U.S.-China trade tensions intensify while OPEC+ production ramps up. The world's two largest oil consumers have renewed their trade war over the last week, with the U.S. and China imposing additional port fees on ships carrying cargo between them. The tit-for-tat moves could disrupt global freight flows. Last week, China announced it would increase rare earth export controls and U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to raise tariffs on Chinese goods to 100% and tighten software export curbs from November 1. On Wednesday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent insisted that Washington did not want to escalate the trade conflict, addingTrump is ready to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea later this month. Deflationary pressures persisted in China, with both consumer and producer prices falling in September. A prolonged property market slump and trade tensions also weighed. Renewed pose a "material" downside risk to the economic outlook, making it more important that the U.S. Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate, Fed Governor Stephen Miran said on Wednesday. Looser economic policies can boost economic growth and demand for oil. U.S. retail sales excluding motor vehicles and parts likely posted further gains in September, data from the Chicago Fed showed, though part of the rise probably reflected higher prices. On Tuesday, the IEA said the global oil market could face a surplus next year of up to 4 million barrels per day, wider than its previous forecast, as OPEC+ and others raise output and demand remains sluggish. OPEC+ includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies like Russia and Azerbaijan. Britain on Wednesday targeted Russia's two largest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft, and 51 shadow fleet tankers in what it described as a new bid to tighten energy sanctions and choke off Kremlin revenues. Russia was the second-biggest producer of crude oil in the world after the U.S. in 2024, according to U.S. energy data. Any increase in sanctions due to Moscow's war with Ukraine should keep more of that oil out of global markets. In Azerbaijan, oil output fell by 4.2% to 20.7 million metric tons in January-September from 21.6 million metric tons a year earlier, the energy ministry said on Wednesday. US OIL INVENTORIES The American Petroleum Institute (API) trade group and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) are due to release weekly U.S. inventory data on Wednesday and Thursday, , a day later than usual due to the U.S. Columbus Day/Indigenous Peoples' Day holiday on Monday. Analysts forecast U.S. crude stockpiles rose by about 0.3 million barrels last week. If correct, that would be the first time energy firms added oil to storage for three weeks in a row since April. That compares with a decrease of 2.2 million barrels during the same week last year and an average increase of 1.1 million barrels over the past five years (2020-2024). https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-drops-investors-weigh-supply-surplus-outlook-us-china-trade-tensions-2025-10-15/
2025-10-15 11:58
BELGRADE, Oct 15 (Reuters) - The European Union has invited Serbia to join the bloc's communal gas-buying initiative, EU Commission head Ursula von der Leyen said on Wednesday, as it seeks to reduce the Balkan country's reliance on fossil fuels from Russia. The EU launched a joint gas-buying platform in 2023 to give participants more leverage to achieve better deals after Russia slashed its gas deliveries to Europe in 2022, driving European energy prices to record highs. Sign up here. The bloc wants to phase out Russian oil and gas altogether by January 2028 to deprive the Kremlin of revenues that could be used to fund its war in Ukraine. The EU wants Serbia - a candidate for EU membership but with deep cultural and political ties to Russia - to align with Europe on energy policy. Serbia currently receives around 80% of its natural gas from Russia. "We are connecting Serbia with the EU energy market and that is a real guarantee that Serbian families will be safe ... through the winter," von der Leyen said after meeting Serbia's President Aleksandar Vucic in Belgrade. Von der Leyen also said Serbia should harmonise its foreign policy with the EU, including by imposing sanctions on Russia, and to start immediate work on reforms needed for joining the bloc. It is not clear if Serbia has taken part in the EU initiative yet. In June, the energy ministry said it was working to integrate its gas and power markets with those of the EU by the end of 2027. Von der Leyen's comments come days after the U.S. imposed sanctions on Serbia's Russian-owned NIS oil company, prompting neighbouring Croatia to cut crude supplies and raising concerns that the country's sole refinery may halt operations within weeks. Vucic said Serbia wants to diversify its energy supplies and build gas pipelines to neighbouring North Macedonia and Romania. He said the country has secured enough oil and gas for now. But longer-term risks to supply remain. "The winter will not be easy for us," he said. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/eu-invites-serbia-join-collective-gas-buying-plan-reduce-reliance-russia-2025-10-15/
2025-10-15 11:54
JAKARTA, Oct 15 (Reuters) - Indonesia's PT Arsari Tambang, a tin mining company controlled by the family of President Prabowo Subianto, is in discussions to acquire a mining asset in Canada, its chief executive told reporters on Wednesday. The company will take advantage of an economic partnership deal Indonesia signed with Canada last month to invest in a mining asset there, Aryo Djojohadikusumo said. Sign up here. Djojohadikusumo, who is Prabowo's nephew, declined to give further details of the acquisition target, citing ongoing negotiations, but said the acquisition value is around 7 trillion rupiah ($422.71 million) and the company aims to close the transaction in June 2026. With the recent trade deal, Canada is aiming to double its trade with Southeast Asia's biggest economy in six years. Arsari Tambang works mainly in the Bangka Belitung region, the tin hub of the world's second largest producer of the metal. Among Arsari's subsidiaries is Mitra Stania Prima, which has 3,811 metric tons of smelting capacity as of 2024. ($1 = 16,560.0000 rupiah) https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/indonesias-arsari-eyes-mining-asset-canada-ceo-says-2025-10-15/
2025-10-15 11:27
Trump said Russia's economy is near collapse US President said Russians queueing for gasoline Russia's Novak says domestic gasoline market is stable Kremlin says Russia's economy is strong enough MOSCOW, Oct 15 (Reuters) - The Kremlin on Wednesday pushed back at U.S. President Donald Trump's warning that the Russian economy was going to collapse, saying that Russia had considerable reserves and was strong enough to allow President Vladimir Putin to achieve his goals. Trump on Tuesday said that Putin should settle the war in Ukraine which was making Russia look bad. He also mentioned "long lines waiting for gasoline" and said the Russian "economy is going to collapse". Sign up here. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said he did not want to comment on Trump's remarks about Russia but that Putin was open to searching for a way to end the war and that Moscow was grateful to Trump for his efforts. "As for the Russian economy, it has a sufficient and considerable margin of safety to allow the country's leadership and all of us to implement the plans that we set for ourselves," Peskov told reporters. After Trump cast the BRICS grouping as "an attack on the dollar," Peskov said that the group of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa and others was never aimed at other countries or their currencies. IMF PREDICTS ONLY FAINT GROWTH Russia's economy is slowing sharply this year and the government forecasts gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 1.0% after 4.3% growth in 2024 and 4.1% growth in 2023, though the International Monetary Fund has downgraded its 2025 forecast to 0.6% from 0.9%. During Putin's first two terms as president from 2000 to 2008, Russia's economy soared to $1.7 trillion from less than $200 billion in 1999. But Russia's nominal GDP is now $2.2 trillion, about the same level it was in 2013, the year before Russia annexed Crimea. With Russia and Ukraine locked into a draining drone and artillery war of attrition for a fourth year, the economy is becoming a major area of competition between the West and Russia. ECONOMIC WAR Ukraine's Western supporters say that Russia's economy is weaker than it looks and if pressure is increased then the pain of ordinary Russians will force Putin to change course. The Kremlin says that the economy is being slowed on purpose to stop overheating and far outperformed the G7 average over 2023 and 2024 despite the most onerous sanctions ever imposed on a major economy. Asked about Trump's remarks at an energy conference in Moscow, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, who oversees energy and the economy for the government, said that Russia had a stable supply of gasoline. "We have a stable domestic market supply, we see no problems in this regard," Novak said. "The balance is maintained between production and consumption, and we, on the part of the government and the relevant ministries, are doing everything to ensure that this remains the case." Double-digit interest rates deterred the biggest Russian retailers from buying up gasoline in the winter months when there was a surplus and then a series of Ukrainian drone attacks knocked out a chunk of Russian refinery capacity. That led to some gasoline shortages in regions in the periphery of Russia, the world's second largest oil exporter, though the government has moved swiftly to prioritise supplies to regions with shortages. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-pushes-back-against-trump-warning-that-russian-economy-is-near-collapse-2025-10-15/
2025-10-15 10:41
Oct 15 (Reuters) - U.S. grain trader and processor Bunge (BG.N) , opens new tab on Wednesday lowered its 2025 earnings forecast following its merger with Viterra, and said it is overhauling segment and volume reporting to align with its integrated operations. Shares of the company, however, rose 4.7% in premarket trading. UBS analyst Manav Gupta said that investors had feared a worse outlook. Sign up here. "Dilution is coming in much better than expected. This lifts the overhang on the stock and we expect a big relief rally in this name," Gupta said in a note. In July, Bunge completed its merger with Glencore-backed (GLEN.L) , opens new tab Viterra, two years after announcing the $34 billion mega-deal. The merger with the Netherlands-based Viterra creates a global crop trading and processing giant that is poised to rival agribusiness giants Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM.N) , opens new tab and Cargill. "We believe based on updated provided today, that Viterra might not cause any dilution in 2026, setting up for a potentially big beat and raise for 2026," Gupta added. Meanwhile, slumping grain prices, weak crop-processing margins and geopolitical tensions have eroded profitability in the sector. From the third quarter, its results will include separate segments for soybean, softseed, other oilseeds, as well as another division for grain merchandising and milling. The company now expects 2025 adjusted earnings per share between $7.30 and $7.60, compared with $7.75 per share forecast earlier. Analysts estimate the company's full-year adjusted profit per share at $7.47, according to data compiled by LSEG. Bunge is scheduled to release its third-quarter results on November 5. Analysts on average were expecting the company to report a quarterly adjusted profit of $1.33 per share. https://www.reuters.com/business/grain-trader-bunge-lowers-full-year-profit-forecast-after-viterra-deal-2025-10-15/
2025-10-15 10:36
Norway plans to phase out EV tax exemptions by 2027 Finance Minister Stoltenberg cites achievement of EV sales goal Parliamentary negotiations needed for budget's approval Pro-EV lobby group wants staggered phase-out OSLO, Oct 15 (Reuters) - Norway plans to eliminate its main subsidy for electric vehicles over the next two years, the government said on Wednesday, adding thousands of dollars to the cost of new cars like Tesla's (TSLA.O) , opens new tab Model Y, the country's top-selling automobile. Fully electric vehicles accounted for a record 98.3% of all new cars sold in the Nordic nation last month, registration data shows, in line with a long-held aspiration in Norway of ending the sale of petrol and diesel combustion engines by 2025. Sign up here. "We have had a goal that all new passenger cars should be electric by 2025, and ... we can say that the goal has been achieved," Finance Minister Jens Stoltenberg said in a statement. "Therefore, the time is ripe to phase out the benefits." EV LOBBY GROUP CALLS MOVE 'HASTY', WANTS STAGGERED PHASE-OUT For years, oil-rich Norway exempted EVs from all taxes applied to combustion-engine vehicles to speed up the transition, a policy that came at a cost of billions of dollars annually in lost revenue for the state. In 2023, however, it introduced a 25% value-added tax on the portion of an EV's price over 500,000 crowns ($49,508), affecting mostly high-end models such as the BMW iX (BMWG.DE) , opens new tab, Tesla X and Porsche Taycan (P911_p.DE) , opens new tab, while shielding mass-market cars. For Tesla's mid-range EVs, only the most expensive so-called "performance" four-wheel drive version of the Model Y is currently subject to VAT, the company's website shows. But in 2026, Norway plans to lower its EV tax exemption to 300,000 crowns, the government said in its proposal for next year's budget, and begin collecting VAT on all versions of the Model Y and similarly priced mid-market cars like Volkswagen's ID.4. In 2027, the final VAT exemptions will be removed altogether, it said, subjecting all EVs to the full tax, if parliament approves the plan. At the same time, the government said it plans to increase the one-time levy charged at the point of initial registration for fossil fuel-powered vehicles to maintain the overall incentives for choosing electric cars. However, the Norwegian EV Association, a pro-EV lobby group, called the changes "hasty" and argued for a more staggered reduction of the VAT limit. "I worry that sudden and major changes will make more people choose fossil-fuel cars again, and I think everyone agrees that we don't want to go back there," its head, Christina Bu, said in a statement. Seven out of 10 cars on Norway's roads are still fossil-fuel vehicles, according to the association. MORE SPENDING FROM WEALTH FUND The government rules in a minority and will need to negotiate its budget proposal with four parties in parliament. The Model Y, Norway's best-selling car in each of the last three years, currently starts at 422,000 crowns for the cheapest version and could therefore be subject to VAT of 30,500 crowns, if a 25% rate is applied to the portion exceeding 300,000 crowns. If the VAT exemption is eliminated the following year, it would add another 75,000 crowns to the cost of the car. The government, meanwhile, proposed increasing spending from the sovereign wealth fund to 579.4 billion crowns in 2026, from a revised 534.2 billion in 2025, to help cover public expenses. The finance ministry revised upward its economic growth projections excluding the oil industry to 2.0% this year and 2.1% in 2026, and sees core inflation at 2.9% this year, easing 2.5% in 2026. ($1 = 10.0994 Norwegian crowns) https://www.reuters.com/business/norway-proposes-widening-ev-tax-include-mass-market-tesla-models-2025-10-15/
