2025-10-15 10:36

Oct 15 - What matters in U.S. and global markets today By Mike Dolan , opens new tab, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets Sign up here. Edgier world markets appeared to bat away the latest testy exchanges in the re-heated U.S.-China trade war, helped by dovish soundings from the Federal Reserve boss that included signals about an imminent end to its balance sheet rundown. As gold spiraled on to new highs, in what global fund managers see as the most crowded trade on the planet, U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar fell after Fed Chair Jerome Powell fretted about a softening labor market and said the central bank may soon halt the reduction of bonds held on its balance sheet - a process known as quantitative tightening. "We may approach that point in coming months," Powell said, adding that "some signs have begun to emerge that liquidity conditions are gradually tightening." Whatever liquidity concerns Powell was watching, it wasn't showing up in the latest sweep of bumper earnings from the big U.S. banks on Tuesday - with more updates on Wednesday's diary. But the Fed direction is helping markets navigate the outage of economic data during the government shutdown and also the fresh barbs in the U.S.-China trade standoff, with President Donald Trump saying he was considering terminating some trade ties with China - singling out cooking oil as one. U.S. stock futures rallied ahead of Wednesday's bell and the VIX volatility gauge retreated, with global equity and bond markets rallying broadly too. Even though new tensions in the trade row may already raise questions about its forecasts, the International Monetary Fund nudged up its world economic outlook for 2026. Despite the trade anxiety and another worrying set of deflationary signals from China, equity markets in Shanghai and Hong Kong jumped more than 1% on hopes of more economic stimulus plans at next week's Communist Party plenum. In Europe, French stocks and bonds and the euro advanced also on Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu's decision to delay pension reforms until after the 2027 election, a move that gave investors more confidence the shaky government can avoid another destabilizing election soon. LVMH's return to growth in the third quarter helped the luxury sector and France's CAC40 index hit its highest since March. In today's column, I discuss why the "phoney trade war" may be ending - and why the real impacts may now start to emerge and a nervier winter could bring back market volatility. Today's Market Minute * Deflationary pressures persisted in China, with both consumer and producer prices falling in September, supporting the case for more policy measures as a prolonged property market slump and trade tensions weigh on confidence. * The U.S. and China on Tuesday began charging additional port fees on ocean shipping firms that move everything from holiday toys to crude oil, making the high seas a key front in the trade war between the world's two largest economies. * Oil prices edged lower on Wednesday, as investors weighed the International Energy Agency's prediction of a supply surplus in 2026 and trade tensions between the United States and China that could curtail demand. * The abrupt cuts to U.S. federal clean energy incentives alongside fresh support for coal and gas-fired power will trigger a swell in North America's emissions in the coming decades as the U.S. generation mix remains fossil fuel reliant, writes ROI global energy transition columnist Gavin Maguire. * China is once again rolling out the big cannon of curbs on metals and minerals vital to the global energy transition, as well as key components in weapons and electronics. Read the latest from ROI Asia commodities columnist Clyde Russell. Chart of the day Global sales of fully electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles rose 26% in September from a year ago to a record 2.1 million units, driven by strong demand in China and a late U.S. tax-credit rush, market research firm Rho Motion said on Wednesday. China accounted for about two-thirds of global sales with about 1.3 million units, while North America also hit a record as U.S. buyers moved to secure incentives before they expired. Today's events to watch * Federal Reserve issues the Beige Book on economic conditions (2:00 PM EDT) New York Federal Reserve's October manufacturing survey (8:30 AM EDT) September real weekly earnings (8:30 AM EDT); Brazil Aug retail sales (8:00 AM EDT) * Federal Reserve Board Governors Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller both speak, while Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid and Atlanta Fed boss Raphael Bostic also speak; European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos speaks; Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock speaks * International Monetary Fund and World Bank meetings in Washington. The Institute of International Finance holds its annual meeting in parallel. * U.S. corporate earnings: Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, PNC, Citizens, Synchrony, Abbott Laboratories, Prologis, United Airlines, JB Hunt * U.S. President Donald Trump welcomes Argentina's president Javier Milei to the White House Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for the newsletter here. You can find ROI on the Reuters website , opens new tab, and you can follow us on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X. , opens new tab Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles , opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/global-markets-view-usa-2025-10-15/

2025-10-15 10:22

LONDON, Oct 15 (Reuters) - The pound firmed against a broadly weaker dollar on Wednesday, as Britain's finance minister Rachel Reeves confirmed tax rises and spending cuts are on the horizon, and market focus stays on the Bank of England's rate path. The pound was up 0.2% against the dollar at $1.3349 and 0.1% firmer versus the euro at 87.15 pence . Sign up here. Britain's currency was benefiting from broad pressure on the dollar, which softened as markets interpreted comments made by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday as dovish, and risk sentiment improved. Reeves said on Wednesday she was looking at both tax rises and spending cuts for her budget on November 26, confirming widely held expectations given her pledges about balancing the country's books. Neil Wilson, UK investor strategist at Saxo Markets, said the pound's 2025 gains versus the dollar will be tougher to hold on to amid pressure coming from the UK's precarious fiscal position. "I'm not sure how many sellers are left in the short USD trade but I would tend to favour a pre-Budget retreat to the 1.30 support before we maybe see some fiscal tightening that is more than the market is expecting," he said, adding that this could push down yields and weigh on the pound into the year-end. The pound came off a peak of $1.3787 in July but remains up 6.8% versus the dollar in 2025. Markets are still digesting Tuesday's data that showed growth in average British earnings slowed slightly in the three months to August, suggesting the Bank of England may be able to continue cutting rates cautiously. But British inflation, which looks set to remain the highest in the Group of Seven advanced economies this year and next, has also been under the spotlight. The International Monetary Fund's chief economist said on Tuesday that the Bank of England needs to be "very cautious" about future rate cuts. Money markets are placing an 87% chance of no change at the BoE's next meeting on November 6. https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/sterling-strengthens-against-weaker-dollar-reeves-budget-plans-focus-2025-10-15/

2025-10-15 08:24

MUMBAI, Oct 15 (Reuters) - The Reserve Bank of India's liquidity infusion via a phased cash reserve ratio cut had less impact than expected as dollar sales and maturing FX forwards drained funds, poising short-term rates for a rise, four analysts said. In June, the central bank announced a phased 100-basis-points CRR cut from September to November to release about 2.5 trillion rupees ($28.3 billion), but analysts said the liquidity boost has proved far smaller than the expected 1.25 trillion rupees. Sign up here. "Although the CRR requirement in the banking system has declined, much of this liquidity has been absorbed due to the RBI's foreign exchange market interventions. As a result, the net liquidity injection has not been substantial," said Vikas Garg, head of fixed income at Invesco Mutual Fund. A cut in the CRR frees up funds that banks must otherwise park with the central bank, boosting liquidity and typically easing short-term rates. When that liquidity boost is muted, funding costs can stay high. Half of the planned CRR cut has taken effect, yet banking system liquidity briefly slipped into deficit last month. "We have held a view that the CRR cut was not even going to fully offset the FX forward book maturity drain from domestic banking liquidity, and that is playing out," said Dhiraj Nim, economist and FX strategist at ANZ. The RBI has $14.45 billion in forwards maturing in October–November after $5.85 billion rolled off in September, while rupee-supporting interventions since late August amid U.S. tariff and visa pressures have further drained liquidity, analysts said. On Wednesday, the RBI intervened heavily in the currency market to bolster the rupee, mirroring its February strategy. Post-February, the central bank had initiated significant liquidity infusions, and traders expect a similar approach. "Today's intervention has opened up doors for open market purchases, if not immediately, then maybe after the remaining CRR cut takes effect," said VRC Reddy, treasury head at Karur Vysya Bank. The daily average banking system liquidity surplus has dropped to 1.3 trillion rupees since September 6, when the first CRR cut took effect, compared to 2.8 trillion rupees between August 1 and September 5. "If a durable gap emerges, intervention through permanent liquidity tools cannot be ruled out, and if yields do rise sharply, the RBI can step in with OMOs," ANZ's Nim added. ($1 = 88.3520 Indian rupees) https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-rbis-liquidity-boost-falters-amid-fx-market-intervention-analysts-say-2025-10-15/

2025-10-15 07:56

JAKARTA, Oct 15 (Reuters) - At least 10 people were killed and 18 injured after an oil tanker caught fire early on Wednesday as it was being repaired in Indonesia's Riau Islands province, according to local police. Fire broke out on the vessel, the MT Federal II, at around 4 a.m. on Wednesday (2100 GMT Tuesday) at a shipyard in the city of Batam, local police chief Zaenal Arifin said. Batam is around 20 kilometres (12.4 miles) away from Singapore by sea. Sign up here. MT Federal II was docked and undergoing repairs when it caught fire, Arifin said, adding that the cause was under investigation and the ship was not carrying oil. As of Wednesday afternoon, 10 people had died and 18 others were receiving treatment in the hospital, Arifin said, adding that all the victims were working to repair the vessel. "Some of them were heavily injured," Arifin said. He added that it was not clear who owns the vessel. In June, a vessel caught fire in Batam while being repaired, killing four people and injuring nine others. In that case, local police have named two people who are suspected of violating standard safety procedures. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/indonesia-oil-tanker-catches-fire-killing-10-local-police-say-2025-10-15/

2025-10-15 07:41

OPEC head repeats call for investments in oil and gas Energy security key to climate action success - Saudi minister Saudi minister sees Europe struggling with transition challenge MOSCOW, Oct 15 (Reuters) - The head of OPEC and the producer group's most influential energy minister on Wednesday defended oil's role in providing secure energy supplies, pushing back against predictions of a faster transition to cleaner fuels. OPEC, which accounts for about a third of global oil supply, has consistently argued that oil demand will continue rising for decades, disagreeing with forecasts, such as from the International Energy Agency, that demand will peak soon. Sign up here. OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais said growing economies, rising populations and urbanisation led "to one clear signal that the world will need much more energy than it is consuming today". OPEC URGES MORE INVESTMENT IN OIL INDUSTRY Speaking at the Russian Energy Week conference in Moscow, he predicted oil would continue to account for about 30% of the global energy mix by 2050, and forecast 23% growth in primary energy demand by then. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has been calling for more oil industry investment and said in a July report that the sector needed $18.2 trillion to be spent by 2050, compared with the $17.4 trillion it estimated last year. By contrast, the IEA said in 2021 there should be no investment in new oil and gas projects if the world was serious about meeting climate targets. In a September report, though, the IEA said investment was needed to offset supply losses. Speaking at the Moscow event, Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said that energy security and economic prosperity were prerequisites for successful climate action. Without energy security and economic prosperity, "I don't think you'll be able to attend to sustainability and climate change," he said. He singled out Europe, saying it was struggling with the challenge of moving away from its established energy infrastructure towards uncertain alternatives. The OPEC+ producer group, comprising OPEC and allies including Russia, is pumping more barrels to regain market share after years of cuts to support prices. The extra supply is adding to fears of a glut and weighing on oil prices this year. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-secretary-general-says-oil-gas-industry-needs-more-investment-2025-10-15/

2025-10-15 07:40

At least four vessels divert to Zhoushan; one to Tianjin Zhoushan terminal connected to Sinopec refineries via pipeline SINGAPORE, Oct 15 (Reuters) - Trading firms have diverted at least five more crude oil tankers from a major port in eastern China after the U.S. imposed sanctions on an import terminal there on Friday, according to trading sources and shipping data. The U.S. sanctions have disrupted plans for the country's refiners to unload their cargoes at the port of Lanshan in the refining hub of Shandong province. Diverting the ships may also cause congestion at the alternative ports, particularly at Zhoushan, located further south off the coast of Zhejiang province, where several ships have been redirected, multiple traders who participate in the market said. Sign up here. The Rizhao Shihua Crude Oil Terminal in Lanshan, half-owned by Sinopec Kantons Holding (0934.HK) , opens new tab, a unit of Sinopec, also known as China Petroleum and Chemical (600028.SS) , opens new tab, was sanctioned on Thursday by the U.S. for receiving Iranian oil on board sanctioned vessels. One-fifth of Sinopec's crude oil imports pass through the Rizhao Shihua terminal, according to industry executives and analysts. In response, Chinese refiners began moving their ships away from the terminal. Unipec, the trading arm of Sinopec, Asia's largest refiner, over the weekend diverted the Very Large Crude Carrier New Vista, capable of carrying up to 2 million barrels of oil, to the ports of Ningbo and Zhoushan, where it is currently waiting to discharge its cargo. Unipec has also diverted the VLCC Xin Yue Yang, carrying 2 million barrels of Omani crude, to Zhoushan, for arrival on October 21, data from LSEG and Kpler showed. Zhoushan is an archipelago south of Shanghai and the terminal there is connected to Sinopec's eastern Chinese refineries via pipelines. Another two vessels, the VLCC Spherical and the Suezmax Fulger, which can carry up to 1 million barrels of oil, are also heading to Zhoushan, LSEG data showed. It's unclear if the Spherical, which is carrying 2 million barrels of Brazilian crude, will eventually discharge at Zhoushan as it is still waiting for instructions, a shipping source said. The Fulger, carrying about 1 million barrels of Egyptian Arco crude, is due to discharge at Zhoushan on October 19, the data showed. It was not immediately clear which companies chartered the Spherical and Fulger. The VLCC Habshan, chartered by CSSA, the shipping arm of French energy major TotalEnergies (TTEF.PA) , opens new tab, has switched its destination to the port of Tianjin, north of Rizhao, for arrival on October 26, LSEG data showed. The VLCC is carrying about 2 million barrels of Congolese Djeno crude, data from LSEG and Kpler showed. Tianjin is the site of Sinopec's major subsidiary refinery Tianjin Petrochemical as well as a base for an oil reserve Sinopec operates. TotalEnergies and Sinopec did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Sinopec Kantons said on Monday that it expects its business will be impacted by the sanctions. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/tanker-diversions-sanctioned-chinese-terminal-may-cause-congestion-other-ports-2025-10-15/