2025-09-11 20:44

US deficit nears $2 trillion with one month left in 2025 fiscal year Net US customs duties reach record $29.5 billion in August Receipts, outlays reach records for August, fiscal year-to-date WASHINGTON, Sept 11 (Reuters) - The U.S. budget deficit for August fell $35 billion or 9% from a year earlier to $345 billion as President Donald Trump's tariffs pushed net customs receipts up by about $22.5 billion for the month, the Treasury Department said on Thursday. With one month to go in the 2025 fiscal year, the year-to-date deficit rose $76 billion, or 4% to $1.973 trillion. A U.S. Treasury official declined to predict whether the deficit would top $2 trillion for the full fiscal year ended September 30 but told reporters that September typically has higher revenues than August because of quarterly tax payment deadlines. Sign up here. The official said the fiscal-year-to-date deficit was the third highest for that period after the COVID-era 11-month deficits of $3.007 trillion in fiscal 2020 and $2.711 trillion in fiscal 2021. Those two years also had the highest full-year deficits due to a collapse in receipts and heavy COVID relief spending. Receipts for August rose $38 billion or 12% to $344 billion, while August outlays grew $2 billion to $689 billion. Both receipts and outlays reached new records for the month. Adjustments for calendar shifts in benefit payments and receipts would have produced a $47 billion deficit reduction in August instead of the $35 billion reduction, the Treasury said. "With one month left in fiscal 2025, we expect the deficit for the year to come in at $1.78 trillion, reflecting the fact that September is typically a surplus month due to strong estimated individual and corporate income tax collections," Oxford Economics Lead U.S. Economist Nancy Vanden Houten said in a note. Net customs receipts in August also reached an all-time monthly record of $29.5 billion, quadrupling from $7 billion a year earlier, driven by Trump's tariffs, which administration officials have touted as a now-essential federal revenue source. The customs duties were the third-highest revenue category in August after $153 billion in individual income taxes and $134 billion in Social Security and Medicare payrolls deductions. For the fiscal year to date, net customs duties were up $95 billion to a record $165.2 billion. The year-on-year growth in monthly customs receipts has remained in the low $20 billion range for the past three months despite higher duty rates from Trump's global "reciprocal" tariffs starting on August 9. The Treasury official said that higher tariff collections typically begin to show up in budget results about a month after increases in rates. Total receipts for the first 11 months of fiscal 2025 rose $300 billion or 7% to a record $4.691 trillion, while outlays rose $376 billion or 6%, to a record $6.664 trillion. Social Security outlays were up $117 billion or 8% to $1.513 trillion as a result of cost of living adjustments and increases in the number of beneficiaries, while Treasury debt interest rose $76 billion, or 7% to $1.124 trillion, and Department of Education spending fell $111 billion or 44% to $140 billion due to cuts to federal student aid and elementary and secondary education programs. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-august-deficit-falls-345-billion-tariff-revenues-rise-2025-09-11/

2025-09-11 20:24

August CPI at 0.4% MoM versus 0.3% estimated Micron jumps after Citigroup hikes PT Centene advances after reaffirming annual profit forecast S&P 500 +0.85%, Nasdaq +0.72%, Dow +1.36% Sept 11 (Reuters) - Wall Street's main indexes notched record-high closes on Thursday following gains in Tesla and Micron Technology, while U.S. inflation and jobless data fueled expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this month. U.S. consumer prices rose more than expected in August and the annual increase in inflation was the largest in seven months. Sign up here. In a separate reading, initial jobless claims for the week ended September 6 stood at 263,000, at a near four-year high. "Inflation has been sticky … Whether we would call it stagflation or not, people have different definitions of it. But certainly we are in a period that is unusual relative to the last several years, as the job market is slowing down considerably while inflation does not follow suit," said Atsi Sheth, Chief Credit Officer at Moody’s Ratings in New York. Sheth predicted the Fed will reduce interest rates by 25 basis points next week, and another 25 basis points by year-end. Futures trading indicates traders are certain the Fed will cut rates by at least 25 basis points at its policy meeting next week, with about a 7% chance of a deeper 50 basis point cut. That follows a series of bleak labor market datasets and Wednesday's cooler-than-expected producer inflation reading. Tesla (TSLA.O) , opens new tab climbed 6% and helped the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high, with gains of more than 1% in JPMorgan (JPM.N) , opens new tab and Goldman Sachs Group (GS.N) , opens new tab. Micron Technology (MU.O) , opens new tab jumped 7.5% to $150.55 after Citigroup raised its price target on the memory chipmaker to $175 from $150. The Philadelphia SE Semiconductor Index (.SOX) , opens new tab rose 0.9%, also hitting an all-time high. Warner Bros Discovery (WBD.O) , opens new tab surged 29% after the Wall Street Journal reported that Paramount Skydance (PSKY.O) , opens new tab is preparing a majority cash bid for the struggling media company. The S&P 500 climbed 0.85% to end the session at 6,587.47 points. The Nasdaq gained 0.72% to 22,043.08 points, while the Dow rose 1.36% to 46,108.00 points. Ten of the 11 S&P 500 sector indexes rose, led by materials (.SPLRCM) , opens new tab, up 2.14%, followed by a 1.73% gain in health care (.SPXHC) , opens new tab. Centene (CNC.N) , opens new tab jumped 9% after the health insurer reaffirmed its annual profit forecast and said quality ratings for its Medicare plans were in line with expectations. Oracle receded 6.2%, giving back some of the prior session's 36% surge, which had added new fuel to Wall Street's AI rally. Delta Airlines (DAL.N) , opens new tab fell 1.55% after the carrier reaffirmed its annual profit forecast. Advancing issues outnumbered falling ones within the S&P 500 (.AD.SPX) , opens new tab by a 6.8-to-one ratio. The S&P 500 posted 42 new highs and 4 new lows; the Nasdaq recorded 143 new highs and 42 new lows. Volume on U.S. exchanges was heavy, with 18.2 billion shares traded, compared to an average of 16.1 billion shares over the previous 20 sessions. https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-street-indexes-post-record-high-closes-tesla-micron-rally-2025-09-11/

2025-09-11 19:54

Sept 11 (Reuters) - Dow (DOW.N) , opens new tab CEO Jim Fitterling said on Thursday the polyethylene market is setting up for positive price action in September following a dip in the second quarter due to tariff uncertainties. "There's no sign that there's a massive inventory build. There's no sign of anything getting locked up or China falling out of the market to the point where it backed up exports," Fitterling said at the Morgan Stanley Laguna Conference. Sign up here. In the third quarter, the chemicals maker said it has observed stable volumes, strong export capabilities and low-cost positions in the United States. In July, Dow executives had flagged that the ongoing tariff and geopolitical uncertainty impacted demand patterns, particularly in the industrial infrastructure and durable goods sectors. The company expects a reduction in interest rates to promote a recovery in depressed end markets, such as housing and durable goods, which are highly rate-sensitive and tied to affordability, Fitterling mentioned. Regarding its net-zero petrochemical project, Path2Zero production complex, in Alberta, Canada, Fitterling said an update will be provided by year-end as the company is adding additional capacity there. "That increment of capacity leverages a lot of existing infrastructure that's at that site. So it is going to compete with our Texas investment down in the Gulf Coast." In April, the company said it would delay the planned construction of the project to conserve cash amid unfavorable market conditions. Dow sees a one-to-two year delay in the project's timeline, which was first announced in 2021, fully financed in 2023, and scheduled for construction to begin in 2024. https://www.reuters.com/business/chemicals-maker-dow-sees-positive-polyethylene-price-action-september-2025-09-11/

2025-09-11 19:48

US headline CPI rises 0.4%, year-on-year up 2.9% Initial jobless claims rise more than expected. Fed funds futures price in 91% odds of 25-bp rate cut next week Eurozone economy is in "good place" - ECB's Lagarde NEW YORK, Sept 11 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar weakened against major currencies such as the euro and yen on Thursday, as modestly hotter August inflation data and weaker-than-expected initial jobless claims reinforced the view that the Federal Reserve will resume cutting interest rates next week. In afternoon trading, the dollar was down 0.3% against the yen at 147.09 yen , while the euro rose 0.4% to $1.1738 . As a result, the dollar index, a measure of the greenback's value against six major currencies, dipped 0.3% to 97.51 . Sign up here. The euro was also helped in part by diminished expectations of further cuts in borrowing costs, after the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged on Thursday as expected and maintained an upbeat view on growth and inflation. U.S. economic data, however, was the more predominant currency driver. Data showed U.S. consumer prices rose more than expected in August while the annual increase in inflation was the largest in seven months. The Consumer Price Index increased 0.4% last month after increasing 0.2% in July, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said. In the 12 months through August, the CPI advanced 2.9%, the largest increase since January, after climbing 2.7% in July. "The CPI didn't come in as high as the market expected. Ultimately, the biggest concern ... is that the dovishness that comes with the weak jobs numbers is going to be unwound if CPI accelerates more than expected," said Eugene Epstein, head of trading and structured products, North America, at Moneycorp in New Jersey. "But that didn't really materialize. Everybody would prefer CPI to be softer, but the point is, the data does not really change the course or move the needle for Fed rates." More importantly, initial claims for state unemployment benefits jumped 27,000 to a seasonally adjusted 263,000 for the week ended September 6, data showed. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 235,000 claims for the latest week. CPI OVERSHADOWED BY JOBLESS CLAIMS? "For the first time in a long time, CPI is being overshadowed on its release day by another data series," wrote Josh Jamner, senior investment strategy analyst at ClearBridge Investments in an email. He noted that the spike in initial jobless claims to the highest level in four years had helped briefly push the 10-year Treasury yield below 4%, despite the larger-than-expected increase in the consumer price index. "This dynamic illustrates the Fed's focus on the 'maximum employment' half of the dual mandate, with today's inflation print not hot enough in our view to derail a 25 basis point interest rate cut at next week's FOMC meeting." Attention on the labor market has intensified after two poor U.S. jobs reports over the last few days. The non-farm employment number for August showed just 22,000 jobs created compared with forecasts of 75,000, while payrolls were revised downwards by 911,000 for the year ending in March. Following Thursday's data, fed funds futures are pricing in a 91% chance of a 25 bp cut this month and a 9% chance of a 50 bp decline, according to the CME's FedWatch. That was unchanged from levels late on Wednesday. In other currency pairs, the euro gained 0.2% against the yen to 172.78 yen , and was flat against sterling at 86.14 pence . ECB President Christine Lagarde told a press conference after the bank held interest rates steady at 2% that the euro zone continues to be in a "good place," adding that inflation is where the ECB wanted it to be. The euro is stabilizing after a two-day streak of declines as geopolitical tensions continue on the EU's eastern flank. Poland said it shot down suspected Russian drones in its airspace on Wednesday with the backing of aircraft from its NATO allies, the first time a member of the Western military alliance is known to have fired shots during Russia's war in Ukraine. Elsewhere, the dollar fell 0.5% versus the Swiss franc to 0.7956 , while sterling gained 0.4% versus the greenback to $1.3578 . Also seemingly unnoticed was news that Stephen Miran moved closer to becoming a Fed governor, furthering U.S. President Donald Trump's effort to exert more direct control over interest rate policy. The Senate Banking Committee voted to advance Miran's nomination, though lawmakers involved said it is far from certain if the process can be completed in time for him to participate in the coming meeting. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/us-dollar-retreats-inflation-runs-warm-jobless-claims-tick-higher-2025-09-11/

2025-09-11 19:26

Rubio makes unusual surprise appearance to introduce nominee Warm remarks at hearing come as relations have been reset US wants India to stop buying Russian oil Nominee says India-US ties are more important than India-China WASHINGTON, Sept 11 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump's nominee to be ambassador to India said on Thursday that Washington and New Delhi are "not that far apart" on tariffs at a hearing in which he and Trump's fellow Republicans described warm bilateral ties despite recent tensions. In a highly unusual move, Secretary of State Marco Rubio made a surprise appearance at the hearing to introduce Sergio Gor, the nominee. India is "one of the top relationships the United States has in the world today in terms of the future of what the world's going to look like," Rubio said. Sign up here. Successive U.S. administrations have courted India as a potential counterweight to an increasingly powerful China, but Trump's trade war has severely tested the relationship. Talks on lower tariff rates collapsed after India, the world's fifth-largest economy, resisted opening its vast agricultural and dairy sectors. Bilateral trade is worth more than $190 billion each year. Trump first imposed additional tariffs of 25% on imports from India, then said they would double to 50% from August 27 as punishment for New Delhi's increased purchases of Russian oil, as Washington works to end the war in Ukraine. "We're not that far apart on a deal on these tariffs," Gor, a close Trump aide who is director of the White House Presidential Personnel Office, told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. "I do think it will get resolved in the next few weeks," Gor said. RESET IN RELATIONS The hearing underscored a recent shift in tone the Trump administration's dealings with New Delhi. Senate aides said they could not remember another recent hearing in which the secretary of state came to introduce an ambassadorial nominee. The hearing also happened more quickly than usual. Trump announced on August 22 that Gor was his choice for the post in New Delhi and to serve as a special envoy for South and Central Asian Affairs. Republican senators said it would benefit India to have an ambassador who is so close to Trump. "There are few relationships that are as critical for our national security or for our economics," said Senator Bill Hagerty of Tennessee, who was ambassador to Japan during Trump's first term. Trump said on Tuesday his administration is continuing negotiations to address trade barriers with India and that he would talk to Modi, in a sign of a reset after weeks of diplomatic friction. Asked if he would commit to pushing to ensure that a summit meeting of the Quad, which groups India with Australia, Japan and the United States, would take place as scheduled later this year, Gor said: "Without committing to exact dates ... the president is fully committed to continue to meet with the Quad and strengthening it." India has been expected to host a November Quad summit, with a more explicit focus on security regarding China than previously, but a person familiar with the matter told Reuters this month that Trump has yet to schedule a trip there. "While we might have our moment of hiccups right now, we are on the track of resolving that," Gor said. "Our relationship with the Indian government, with the people of India, extends many more decades, and it's a much warmer relationship than they have with the Chinese." https://www.reuters.com/world/india/trump-india-ambassador-nominee-touts-warm-us-india-ties-sees-tariff-deal-soon-2025-09-11/

2025-09-11 19:18

IEA expects oversupply to increase with OPEC output boost Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports to China set to surge in October US consumer prices rise, Fed likely to cut rates NEW YORK, Sept 11 (Reuters) - Oil prices slid on Thursday, settling about 2% lower as concerns over possible softening of U.S. demand and broad oversupply offset threats to output from the conflict in the Middle East and the war in Ukraine. Brent crude futures fell $1.12, or 1.7%, to settle at $66.37 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $1.30, or 2.0%, to settle at $62.37. Sign up here. The International Energy Agency said in its monthly report that world oil supply will rise more rapidly than expected this year due to planned output increases by OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies like Russia. "Oil prices are falling today in response to bearish IEA headlines, which suggest massive oversupply on the oil market next year," said Carsten Fritsch, an analyst at Commerzbank. On Sunday, OPEC+ agreed to raise production from October. But in another report, however, OPEC kept non-OPEC supply and demand forecasts for the year unchanged, citing steady demand. The market was torn between a perceived supply shortage due to a rise in tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine and actual oversupply from higher OPEC+ production and swelling stocks, said Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates. OPEC leader Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports to China are set to surge, several trade sources told Reuters on Thursday, with state-controlled energy firm Aramco shipping about 1.65 million barrels per day in October, up sharply from 1.43 million bpd allocated in September. The market is also questioning how long China could continue to absorb barrels and keep Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) inventories low, said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS, adding that investors were also watching for further sanctions affecting Russian oil. In Russia, the world's second-biggest producer of crude behind the U.S. in 2024, revenue from crude and oil products sales declined in August to one of the lowest levels seen since the start of the conflict in Ukraine, the IEA said. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright and European Commissioner for Energy and Housing Dan Jorgensen discussed efforts to restrict Russian energy trade during talks in Brussels, with Jorgensen saying the European Union's planned deadlines were ambitious but there is a need to speed the process. In India, meanwhile, the largest private port operator, Adani Group has banned entry at its ports of tankers sanctioned by Western countries, three sources said and documents show. The move could hit Russian oil supplies for two Indian refiners. INTEREST RATES AND INFLATION U.S. consumer prices in August increased by the most in seven months, fueled by higher housing and food costs. A surge in first-time applications for unemployment aid last week kept feeding expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next Wednesday, which could boost economic growth and demand for oil. The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged on Thursday, as expected, but offered no clues about its next move. Investors continue to bet the EU economy will need more support next year, yet traders curbed their bets on another ECB rate cut this cycle. Another move is now seen as a coin toss. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-slide-2-worries-about-global-oversupply-us-demand-2025-09-11/