2025-09-11 12:21
FRANKFURT, Sept 11 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank left borrowing costs unchanged on Thursday and raised its growth forecast for this year on the back of a more resilient economy. The ECB left the rate it pays on bank deposits at 2% for the second meeting in a row, after halving it in the space of a year as inflation fell towards its 2% target. Sign up here. The central bank for the 20 countries that share the euro refrained from providing any indication about the future path for interest rates. "The Governing Council...will follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate monetary policy stance," the ECB said in a press release. On top of the announced U.S. trade tariffs, the ECB has to reckon with a weakening labour market in the United States - the biggest customer for euro zone companies - and political and debt troubles in France, its second-biggest member economy. Policymakers told Reuters before the meeting that conversations about a further rate cut were likely to resume in the autumn if U.S. import tariffs take a toll on euro zone growth. On the upside, Germany's plan for more defence spending was expected to boost inflation and growth later on. ECB President Christine Lagarde will hold a news conference at 1245 GMT. With Thursday's decision, the ECB also left the rates that banks pay to borrow at its weekly and daily auctions unchanged at 2.15% and 2.40% respectively. These facilities have been used very little in recent years as cash is abundant in the banking system, a legacy of the ECB's past stimulus programmes. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/ecb-leaves-rates-unchanged-economy-shows-resilience-2025-09-11/
2025-09-11 12:08
MOSCOW, Sept 11 (Reuters) - Russian oil production increased in August to 9.173 million barrels per day, up 50,000 bpd from July, OPEC monthly data showed on Thursday. That was still less than Russia's August quota of 9.344 million bpd under an OPEC+ agreement. Sign up here. The OPEC figure was in contrast with the International Energy Agency's assessment, which showed that Russian oil output declined last month by 30,000 bpd to 9.3 million bpd. OPEC also said that Kazakhstan's oil output last month dipped by 23,000 bpd to 1.814 million bpd, compared with an IEA estimate of 1.8 million bpd. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russian-oil-output-rises-august-opec-data-shows-2025-09-11/
2025-09-11 12:02
LONDON, Sept 11 (Reuters) - OPEC made no changes on Thursday to its relatively high global oil demand growth forecasts for this year and next, and said the world economy was maintaining a solid growth trend in the second half of this year. The upbeat OPEC outlook, in a monthly report, follows the decision of the wider OPEC+ producer group on Sunday to further raise its oil output quotas from October as its leader Saudi Arabia pushes to regain market share. Sign up here. "Global economic growth in the first half of 2025 remained robust, and the sound growth trend has extended into the second half of 2025," OPEC said in the report. OPEC's report also showed that in August OPEC+ raised crude output by 509,000 barrels per day, reflecting its earlier decisions to increase its output quotas. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-sticks-oil-demand-forecasts-says-economy-doing-well-2025-09-11/
2025-09-11 12:00
SINGAPORE, Sept 11 (Reuters) - The global crude oil market is facing two long-term fundamental shifts that will change how cargoes flow around the world and how they are priced. The first factor is a supply and demand issue, with the vast majority of demand growth concentrated in Asia but the supply growth largely coming from the Americas outside of the United States. Sign up here. The second is that energy markets are being increasingly subjected to political influences and the risk is that large blocs of supply are cut off from demand centres, as has been seen with Europe largely ending its purchases of Russian oil in the wake of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. These two factors will once again force the oil market to adapt, with longer vessel voyages, issues around obtaining suitable crude quality for refinery configurations and how to price new flows from one region to another. The swing to new production out of the Americas was highlighted in a presentation by analysts from Argus Media during this week APPEC oil gathering in Singapore. Crude from the Americas represents 85% of the increase in incremental global supply from non-OPEC sources from 2024 to 2030, Argus said, adding that amounted to 3.63 million barrels per day (bpd). Only a small proportion of this comes from the United States, with the world's largest oil producer expected to see only modest increases in output in coming years. Larger contributions come from Canada, Brazil, Guyana, Argentina and Suriname, with some decline expected from Mexico as fields mature. In contrast to the supply growth, the demand growth is concentrated in the East of Suez markets, Argus said, with India leading with an expected gain of 2 million bpd from 2024 to 2030. Outside of India, the rest of the Asia-Pacific region is forecast to add 600,000 bpd of demand over the period, while China actually loses 100,000 bpd as it moves rapidly to electrifying its transport fleet. Oil demand is forecast by Argus to rise from 2024 to 2030 by 1 million bpd in the Middle East, by 600,000 bpd in Africa and by 500,000 bpd in Latin America. But the main takeaway is that 90% of expected demand growth is in the East of Suez markets. There is already evidence of rising flows from the Americas to Asia, with volumes hitting a quarterly record high of 4.09 million bpd in the April to June period, according to data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler. This was up from 3.6 million bpd in the first quarter and meant that oil from the Americas accounted for about 16% of Asia's seaborne imports in the second quarter. CHALLENGES The oil industry has a solid track record in adapting to changing flows, so it's reasonable to expect that physically moving crude from the Americas to Asia will be feasible, even if it's more costly. What may be more challenging is dealing with the new grades, which skew towards being lighter and sweeter, with the exception of Canada's heavy crude. It's likely that there will be a surplus of light, sweet crudes at a time when the rising electrification of vehicles cuts demand for gasoline, the main product from such grades. If more oil moves from the Americas to Asia the question also arises as to how it will be priced. Will the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmark become more important than the current global light crude standard bearer Brent, or will cargoes move to being priced more on a delivered to Asia basis? The other big question is how will geopolitics play out in crude markets over the longer term. U.S. President Donald Trump has made it clear that he sees energy as a political tool, making commitments to buy U.S. crude and liquefied natural gas key parts of his trade negotiations with countries. But while this may boost purchases of U.S. crude by some countries that have reached deals, such as Japan and South Korea, it also means that countries without a deal, such as China and India, are likely to shun U.S. energy. While crude markets have been totally free from politics, it is likely that trading will become more polarised in coming years, with importing nations being forced to choose between suppliers Trump approves of and those he disagrees with. The problem is Trump has shown he can shift allegiances fairly quickly, which may complicate oil flows while he remains in office. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), your essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis of everything from swap rates to soybeans. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X , opens new tab. The views expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/crude-oil-be-driven-longer-term-by-supply-demand-mismatch-geopolitics-2025-09-11/
2025-09-11 11:49
IEA expects oversupply to increase with OPEC output boost EIA reports bigger than expected rise in oil stocks US consumer prices data due later on Thursday LONDON, Sept 11 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Thursday, pressured by concerns over softening U.S. demand and broad oversupply that offset threats to output from conflict in the Middle East and the Russian war in Ukraine. Brent crude futures were down 63 cents, or 0.9%, at $66.86 a barrel by 1139 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures lost 68 cents, or about 1.1%, to $62.99. Sign up here. The benchmark contracts gained more than $1 each on Wednesday after Israel's attack on Hamas leadership in Qatar the previous day and the mobilisation of Polish and NATO air defences to shoot down suspected Russian drones that had strayed into Poland's airspace during an attack on western Ukraine. However, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly report that world oil supply will rise more rapidly than expected this year as OPEC+ members increase output further and supply from outside the group grows, with limited expansion in demand. "Our market is torn between perceived supply shortage due to the rise in tension in the Middle East and Ukraine and actual oversupply as reflected in rising OPEC+ production and swelling stocks implied in the weekly and monthly EIA reports," PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga said. While the uncertainty around secondary sanctions against Russian oil buyers China and India also puts a floor under the market, prices should resume their fall once those tensions ease, he added. U.S. crude inventories rose by 3.9 million barrels in the week to September 5, the Energy Information Administration said, against expectations of a draw of 1 million barrels. A softer U.S. economy, meanwhile, has raised expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week. "Traders are taking a more cautious stance ahead of the upcoming U.S. inflation report (later on Thursday), with expectations of more significant Federal Reserve rate cuts already factored in, which could be unsettled by a warmer than expected CPI report," said IG market analyst Tony Sycamore. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, a group collectively known as OPEC+, on Sunday decided to raise production from October. OPEC is due to issue its monthly oil market report at 1200 GMT. Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports to China are set to surge in October after a deep cut in prices, several trade sources told Reuters on Thursday, with Aramco shipping about 1.65 million barrels per day in October, compared with 1.43 million bpd allocated in September. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-fall-nearly-1-oversupply-weaker-us-demand-2025-09-11/
2025-09-11 11:47
ATHENS, Sept 11 (Reuters) - The United States wants to expand its energy ties with Greece, U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said during a visit to Athens on Thursday, as the Trump administration works to further reduce Russia's oil and gas supplies to Europe. Burgum has been in Europe this week aiming to seal energy supply deals, which the U.S. hopes will strengthen its influence in the region while weakening Russia's. Sign up here. On Wednesday, Greece announced that a consortium including oil major Chevron (CVX.N) , opens new tab had bid to explore for natural gas in its waters. "The Trump administration has a couple of goals around energy and one of those is energy abundance, so energy to our friends and our allies so they do not have to buy from our adversaries," Burgum told Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis during a meeting in Athens. A ban on seaborne Russian crude oil has cut the EU's Russian oil imports by 90%, but Hungary and Slovakia still import via a pipeline. Europe is expected to purchase about 13% of its gas from Russia this year, though that is down from 45% before Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, EU data shows. The U.S. has pressured the EU to accelerate the phase out Russian fossil fuels to reduce funds for Moscow's war chest. Part of that push is to offer more of its abundance of shale gas and oil reserves in export deals. Greece's imports of U.S. liquefied natural gas increased by 95% in the first half of this year. A controversial maritime deal signed in 2019 has strained Greece's relations with Libya and Turkey. However, some of the blocks in which Chevron is interested are offshore Crete near one of the disputed areas. Greece has taken that as tacit U.S. support for its maritime boundaries. "It's a very interesting coincidence that you come a day after Chevron officially submits interest to start exploratory work in areas south of Crete, confirming the sovereign rights of the Hellenic Republic in that area," Mitsotakis told Burgum. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-eyes-stronger-energy-ties-with-greece-says-interior-secretary-2025-09-11/
