2025-10-14 06:50
NEW DELHI, Oct 14 (Reuters) - India's wholesale price inflation (INWPI=ECI) , opens new tab in September eased to 0.13% year-on-year from 0.52% in the previous month, helped by a decline in food and fuel prices, government data showed on Tuesday. Economists polled by Reuters had projected the wholesale price index to rise 0.5% year-on-year in September. Sign up here. KEY NUMBERS * Wholesale food prices in September fell 1.99%, compared with a 0.21% year-on-year growth in the prior month. * Vegetable prices in September declined 24.41%, compared with a drop of 14.18% year-on-year in August. * Prices of manufactured products rose 2.33% year-on-year, as against an increase of 2.55% recorded in August. * Fuel and power prices declined 2.58% year-on-year, compared with a 3.17% drop in the month-ago period. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indias-september-wholesale-price-inflation-eases-013-yy-2025-10-14/
2025-10-14 06:49
Brent crude futures, WTI both settle lower IEA raises forecast for global oil supply growth this year IEA also lowers demand growth forecast HOUSTON, Oct 14 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Tuesday, settling 1.5% lower as the International Energy Agency warned of a huge supply glut in 2026, and as trade tensionspersisted between the U.S. and China, the world's two biggest economies. Brent crude futures fell 93 cents, or 1.5%, to settle at $62.39 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down 1.3%, or 79 cents, at $58.70. Both contracts were at a five-month low. Sign up here. In the previous session, Brent settled 0.9% higher, and U.S. WTI closed up 1%. The world oil market faces an even bigger surplus next year of as much as 4 million barrels per day as OPEC+ producers and rivals lift output and demand remains sluggish, the International Energy Agency predicted. On Monday, a monthly report by he Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and allies including Russia was less bearish than the IEA's view. It said the oil market's supply shortfall would shrink in 2026, as the wider OPEC+ alliance proceeds with planned output increases. However, executives at oil majors and top trading houses said they expect global oil market to tighten in the medium to longer term, recovering from short-term weakness. "The latest tensions between the U.S. and China will also be a pressure point on crude as China’s economy could be in question if tensions stay elevated," said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial. UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said a risk-off mood had taken hold as trade tensions weigh on sentiment and the IEA report was bearish. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday that President Donald Trumpremained committed to meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea this month. Washington and Beijing seek to defuse tensions over tariff threats and export controls. Last week, however, China expanded export controls on rare earths and Trump threatened 100% tariffs and software export curbs from November 1. Beijing also announced sanctions on Tuesday against five U.S.-linked subsidiaries of South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean, while the U.S. and China will begin charging additional port fees on ocean shipping firms. The Brent oil futures six-month spread traded at its smallest premium since early May, while the WTI spread was at its narrowest since January 2024. Narrowing backwardation, the market term for immediate deliveries fetching a premium over later deliveries, suggests traders are making less money from selling oil in the spot market because near-term supply is perceived to be ample. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-edges-up-us-china-de-escalate-trade-tensions-2025-10-14/
2025-10-14 06:23
LONDON, Oct 14 (Reuters) - BP (BP.L) , opens new tab expects its upstream production to be above last quarter's, the company said in a trading update on Tuesday ahead of results due on November 4, adding that its oil trading result was weak. It had previously guided for slightly lower upstream output than in the second quarter when it produced around 2.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. Sign up here. Brent crude oil prices averaged $69.13 per barrel in the third quarter, compared with $67.88 per barrel in the second quarter. BP expects the prices it received in its gas and low carbon business to take a $100 million hit compared with the previous three months. U.S. gas prices averaged $3.07 per million British thermal units in the third quarter, compared with $3.44 per mmBtu in the second quarter, BP said. BP guided for a rise in its refining indicator margin to $15.8 per barrel in the quarter, versus $11.9 per barrel in the previous quarter. It described its gas trading result as average. The higher refining margins are set to add $300 million to $400 million to BP's results, although some of that will be countered by compliance costs and an unplanned outage at its U.S. Whiting refinery, which was hit by flooding. BP's net debt is expected to be broadly flat compared with the previous quarter's $26 billion. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/bp-guides-higher-third-quarter-upstream-output-weaker-oil-trading-2025-10-14/
2025-10-14 06:22
LONDON, Oct 14 (Reuters) - Sterling fell on Tuesday after data showed growth in average British earnings slowed slightly in the three months to August, suggesting the Bank of England may be able to continue cutting interest rates, albeit at a very cautious pace. The pound was last down 0.5% against the dollar at $1.3279 , having traded in modestly positive territory before the data was released. Sign up here. It also softened against the euro, which was up 0.5% at 87.18 pence, on track for its biggest daily jump in nearly a month. Average weekly earnings, excluding bonuses, were 4.7% higher in the June-August period than a year earlier, the Office for National Statistics said, slightly weaker than an increase of 4.8% in the three months to July and the slowest since May 2022. In the private sector alone - watched closely by the BoE - earnings excluding bonuses rose by 4.4% in the three months to August, while the jobless rate edged higher to 4.8%. "While all data are subject to revision (and should be taken with a pinch of salt), one thing is clear: slack continues to build in the labour market," said Sanjay Raja, Deutsche Bank's chief UK economist. He said the data should 'give ammunition' for the doves on the BoE's rate-setting monetary policy committee - those who typically lean towards lower interest rates - while providing the centrists on the MPC with "some food for thought". "We continue to think that a (fourth quarter) rate cut may be underpriced by markets," he said. Markets are not fully pricing a further BoE rate cut until March, but see around a 40% chance of a cut in December. Yields on British government bonds also fell, with the 10-year gilt yield down 5 basis points at 4.61%, falling slightly more than European peers. Gross domestic product data due later in the week, along with inflation data next week, will offer further indications about the health of the British economy and the prospect of further BoE rate cuts. https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/sterling-drops-after-uk-data-shows-softer-wage-growth-2025-10-14/
2025-10-14 06:05
LONDON, Oct 14 (Reuters) - Some investors may be buying gold to dodge the next bubble, whether that be overheated tech stocks, rising government debt or even elevated inflation. But what if the scramble for gold itself is the real bubble? The 56% rise in gold so far this year has been remarkable mainly because it's coincided with a steep rebound in U.S. and global stocks since April. Sign up here. Global trade fears and geopolitical risks may reasonably have explained the surge in demand for physical gold as a safe haven or diversification tool immediately following Donald Trump's return to the White House in January. But the bullion boom has continued even as stock markets have recovered sharply from the April lows and uncertainty gauges have eased somewhat. To be sure, lax global fiscal and monetary policies - including threats to the independence of the Federal Reserve and other central banks - have also boosted global inflation concerns, weighing on real interest rates and flattering the zero-yielding precious metal. And there's the fairly open desire of the Trump administration to weaken what it sees as an overvalued dollar. But determining whether a gold rally has gone too far is tricky. Unlike stock valuations, which are pretty straightforward, there's no consensus view on how to value gold. So gold has more than doubled in five years and is up over 250% in the past decade. When is that too much? What's not in doubt is that almost everyone still appears bullish - the sort of behavior often associated with bubbles. And that fact alone may be a good reason for investors to be skeptical about what happens next. Even as gold has clocked a new record of $4,100 per ounce this week, Goldman Sachs expects another 20% rise by the end of next year, Societe Generale sees gold's ascent to $5,000 as "increasingly inevitable," and JPMorgan's team says its long gold position is one of its "strongest conviction cross-asset views". But if everyone is loading up on gold and its gains correlating with high-octane stocks, you may reasonably start to be wary of its diversification properties. Could gold still perform if equities went into tailspin for some reason? PEAK 'TRENDINESS'? Without accepted valuation metrics, just like all commodities, the thrust of the bullish forecasting rests on supply and demand. And this is driven by continued buying of the metal by diversifying central banks and exchange-traded gold funds that are drawing more mainstream investors seeking more varied hedges than increasingly worrisome long-term government bonds. As central bank demand appears more structural and steady-paced, forecasters continue to factor it in going forward even as prices race higher in anticipation. What's not clear is where that demand ends. Private investor demand is more puzzling. While global asset managers polled by Bank of America every month saw "long gold" as the second most crowded trade in September after U.S. megacap tech stocks, more than a third had no gold positioning at all and the weighted average allocation of those who did was just 4.2%. And yet, three things about the parabolic rise in gold prices are starting to gnaw at the edges - the sheer speed of the move, a creeping disconnect from uncertainty gauges and a detachment from relative real interest rates and the dollar. JPMorgan points out that gold's recent surge has outpaced what would typically be implied by falling one-year real interest rates - based on the idea that lower real returns in other "safe" assets make gold a more attractive alternative. It thinks that gap can be explained by the physical demand argument and suggests buying any real-rate-related pullback. But both JPMorgan and HSBC do raise a flag about what happens if the presumed Fed terminal interest rate for this current cycle were to creep higher. As inflation expectations tick higher, the gold surge last quarter comes as the market's implied Fed terminal rate fell almost 50 basis points over the three months to less than 2.9%. But that's ticked higher in recent weeks - helping the dollar - and aided by political surprises in Japan and France. Notwithstanding last Friday's U.S.-China trade jolt, economic policy and geopolitical uncertainty indices have also fallen since midyear. But gold has barely paused for breath. HSBC says an easing of global military or trade tensions through next year could eventually be a drag on prices. And it's likely the momentum and technical price picture of the latest move could trip it up even sooner. Deutsche Bank's team say September-October may have seen a "peak in trendiness" - where their indicators show prices exceeding trends for far longer than average. No one wants to call a top, it's true. But they're all watching out for a slippery slope too. The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters -- Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), your essential new source for global financial commentary. Follow ROI on LinkedIn. Plus, sign up for my weekday newsletter, Morning Bid U.S. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/gold-buyers-dodging-bubbles-may-be-blowing-one-2025-10-14/
2025-10-14 05:57
Markets turn risk off on fragile US-China relations Euro gains after France suspends pension reform UK labour market data hurts sterling Cryptocurrencies extend decline NEW YORK/LONDON, Oct 14 (Reuters) - The dollar lost ground against major peers including the Swiss franc and Japanese yen on Tuesday as U.S.-China trade tensions resurged, while the euro firmed after the French government proposed suspending a landmark pension reform. The dollar weakened 0.37% to 0.801 Swiss franc and eased 0.37% to 151.71 yen , a day after rising against both currencies. Sign up here. "The market got caught a little bit yesterday," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Capital Markets. "People wanted to believe that the U.S.-China trade tensions had de-escalated. But it's clear that they have not." The U.S. and China on Tuesday began charging additional port fees on ocean shipping firms that move everything from holiday toys to crude oil. In addition, Beijing announced countermeasures against five U.S.-linked subsidiaries of South Korean shipbuilding firm Hanwha Ocean. China also said it was investigating how its domestic shipping industry might be affected by a U.S. Section 301 probe into allegedly unfair trade practices by foreign countries. The tit-for-tat measures undermined what appeared to be a conciliatory tone from U.S. President Donald Trump at the weekend that had helped fuel some optimism at the start of this week. U.S. equities were mixed in choppy trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab rose 203.54 points, or 0.44%, to 46,271.12. The S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab fell 10.34 points, or 0.16%, to 6,644.39 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab dropped 172.91 points, or 0.76%, to 22,521.70. "I think what's going on is that markets don't believe that this will be a long-term problem especially with the history of the past year starting in April," said Joseph Trevisani, senior analyst at FX Street. "China started this particular round of this ... but it's not either in the long-term interest of the U.S. or China for this to continue." The U.S. remained mired in its low-hiring, low-firing doldrums through September, though the economy "may be on a somewhat firmer trajectory than expected," Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday. French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu suspended a landmark 2023 pension reform until after the 2027 presidential election, bowing to pressure from leftist lawmakers who had demanded such a move to ensure his political survival. The euro extended gains against the dollar following the announcement. It was up 0.33% at $1.1606. "It looks like there's going to be less fiscal austerity than the previous government. French bonds are having a good day - they are the best performing in the euro zone," Chandler added. Britain's pound was off 0.05% on the dollar at $1.3326 after data showed British pay growth slowing and jobless claims ticking higher. The pound was also softer against the euro , with the common currency up 0.37% at 87.08 pence. The Australian dollar , often used as a liquid proxy for Chinese assets and broader risk sentiment given the two countries' close economic links, shed 0.32% to 0.6491. The New Zealand dollar fell 0.16% to $0.5716. Elsewhere, cryptocurrencies were lower, with bitcoin dropping 2.02% to $113,460.16. Ethereum declined 3.59% to $4,135.78. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/dollar-rebounds-fears-renewed-us-china-trade-feud-abate-2025-10-14/
