2025-09-10 13:24
WASHINGTON, Sept 10 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday reiterated his call for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to cut benchmark interest rates. "Just out: No Inflation!!! “Too Late” must lower the RATE, BIG, right now. Powell is a total disaster, who doesn’t have a clue!!!, Trump said in a post on Truth Social. The post follows federal government data that showed U.S. producer prices slipped in August. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-says-fed-chair-powell-should-make-big-rate-cut-now-2025-09-10/
2025-09-10 13:10
ORLANDO, Florida, Sept 10 (Reuters) - The dollar has been beaten down this year as investors have priced in a resumption of the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle. But even if lower nominal rates are already reflected in the greenback's price, lower 'real' rates may not be. The greenback has gotten a bit of respite recently after recording its worst start to any calendar year since the era of free-floating exchange rates was introduced over 50 years ago. But it will face a renewed headwind if its real interest rate support evaporates, which currently seems likely. Sign up here. If the Fed pulls the rate cut trigger next week, as expected, it will be doing so with inflation around 3% - a percentage point above the central bank's 2% target. Further easing amid sticky prices means the gap between the U.S.'s inflation-adjusted or 'real' interest rate and those of its developed market peers should narrow – bad news for the dollar. 'REAL' PAIN The difference in inflation-adjusted or 'real' interest rates and yields is often thought to play the biggest role in determining the relative returns and purchasing power of currencies. Depending on what cut of annual inflation you use, the 'real' federal funds rate right now is somewhere in the 1.3-1.8% range. That's much higher than equivalent rates in the euro zone, Britain and most notably Japan, where the real policy rate is deeply negative. You can argue this hasn't prevented the dollar's eye-popping decline so far this year. But maybe that 'real' advantage at the short end helped avert an even steeper slide. What's going to happen if that support evaporates? It already has further out the curve. The dollar's 10% slide this year is thanks in no small part to the collapse in its positive real yield differentials in the five- and 10-year space, for example. These spreads are currently the narrowest since early 2022, but can shrink further. SIXTH TIME'S THE CHARM? Rates futures traders expect the Fed to cut rates by some 150 basis points by the end of next year, the most in the developed world but only really playing catch-up with most of these countries. On the other side of the 'real' rate equation is inflation, which remains sticky and above target across the developed world, but particularly in the United States – and that's before the tariff price shock truly hits. Economists at JP Morgan on Tuesday warned that, barring recession, 2026 will likely be the sixth year in a row expectations of inflation returning to target will not be met. They note that policymakers' inflation forecasting record since 2021 has been "less than exemplary," to put it charitably. They reckon central banks have, on average, underestimated core inflation over the period by about one percentage point and overshot their targets by 1.5 percentage points. The Bank of England has the worst record, but given the Fed's global prominence, its poor marks are what really stand out. The U.S. central bank's inflation forecasts have missed by an average of 1.3 percentage point over this period, and it has overshot its target by roughly 2 percentage points. Of course, maybe the sixth time will be the charm, and inflation will ease in line with Fed forecasts next year. The soft U.S. labor market appears quite a bit mushier following Tuesday's announcement of a record downward revision of payrolls growth. And if unemployment rises, consumer demand, economic activity, and price pressures will surely cool. But for now, inflation concerns still appear to be simmering. U.S. consumer inflation expectations are, by some measures, closer to 5% than the Fed's 2% goal, financial conditions are the loosest in years, and monetary and fiscal stimulus look to be coming down the pike. Put everything together, and you have the recipe for lower U.S. real rates and more dollar pain. (The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters) https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/real-rate-dip-threatens-pull-down-dollar-2025-09-10/
2025-09-10 12:51
NEW YORK, Sept 10 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar slipped against the yen and euro on Wednesday after data showed producer prices unexpectedly fell in August, cementing expectations that the Federal Reserve will resume cutting interest rates later this month. The dollar was slightly down against the yen at 147.37 following the data, while the euro turned marginally higher at $1.1711 . Sign up here. A Labor Department report showed the Producer Price Index fell 0.1% on a monthly basis, compared with an expected 0.3% rise. But it rose 2.6% on an annual basis in August, compared with a 3.3% gain expected by economists polled by Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-dollar-dips-after-producer-prices-data-2025-09-10/
2025-09-10 12:43
Magnum CEO dismisses prospect of Ben & Jerry's sale Ben & Jerry's co-founders trying to buy back the brand Magnum targeting market share, volume growth as listing nears Magnum working to reduce sugar content in its ice creams LONDON, Sept 10 (Reuters) - Magnum dismissed talk of selling Ben & Jerry's on Wednesday and said its focus was on reclaiming market share and growing sales as Unilever's (ULVR.L) , opens new tab spin-off of the Magnum Ice Cream Company approaches. Unilever expects the ice cream business, which includes brands such as Magnum, Ben & Jerry's, Wall's and Cornetto, to command just over a fifth of the around $88 billion global ice cream market and compete with rivals such as Nestle-backed Froneri. Sign up here. Magnum is already operating separately to Unilever and after years of declining ice cream market share and stagnant profits, CEO Peter ter Kulve said the shift has allowed the company to invest in supply chains, sales and distribution. "Last year, we had a massive (market) share step up," ter Kulve said. Ben & Jerry's seized the spotlight at an investor day ahead of the mid-November listing on Tuesday, renewing a call for its own spin-off after years of clashes over the U.S. brand's vocal position on Gaza. Asked about an approach led by co-founders Ben Cohen and Jerry Greenfield to buy the brand last year, ter Kulve said: "I have not been privy to any discussion between Unilever and Ben & Jerry." "Ben & Jerry's is not for sale." Unilever will retain a less than 20% stake after the Magnum listing. Asked whether a 15 billion euro ($17.55 billion) valuation, as reported by some media outlets, was accurate, ter Kulve said: "The market will decide." Magnum CFO Abhijit Bhattacharya said the split would give Unilever more focus and Magnum the opportunity to improve margins. Bhattacharya said the terms of the demerger, under which every Unilever shareholder gets a relative stake in Magnum, shields the company from market volatility that an initial public offering might face. The new ice cream business will test investor appetite for a sugar-heavy product at a time when U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is pushing to "Make America Healthy Again" in its biggest market. Ter Kulve said Magnum had removed most artificial colouring and that Magnum was working to reduce sugar content as long as there was no compromise on taste. "It has to taste fabulous because actually making very healthy ice cream products that nobody likes is a useless exercise," ter Kulve said. ($1 = 0.8547 euros) https://www.reuters.com/business/magnum-ceo-dismisses-ben-jerrys-sale-talk-listing-nears-2025-09-10/
2025-09-10 12:41
Sept 10 (Reuters) - U.S. energy infrastructure company Glenfarne said on Wednesday its unit struck a 20-year deal to sell liquefied natural gas to trading firm Gunvor, moving its planned Brownsville export project in Texas closer to a final investment decision. The deal covers 0.5 million tonnes per annum of LNG on a free-on-board basis and converts a previous preliminary agreement between the two firms. Sign up here. Global demand for LNG has surged since Russia's invasion of Ukraine upended gas markets in 2022, driving buyers in Europe and Asia to lock in long-term supply deals with U.S. exporters. The U.S. had emerged as the world's top LNG supplier in 2023, with Texas and Louisiana at the centre of new capacity growth since. Texas LNG, a unit of Glenfarne Energy Transition, is developing the Brownsville project, with engineering, procurement and construction to be led by contractor Kiewit. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/glenfarne-gunvor-sign-20-year-lng-supply-deal-project-nears-investment-decision-2025-09-10/
2025-09-10 12:25
Israeli strike on Hamas leadership in Qatar supports prices Trump asks EU to put tariffs on China, India to pressure Russia Longer-term outlook still for oversupply as OPEC+ ups production LONDON, Sept 10 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose on Wednesday after Israel attacked Hamas leadership in Qatar, Poland shot down drones and the U.S. made a push for new sanctions on buyers of Russian oil, but concerns over crude oversupply capped further gains. Brent crude futures were up 66 cents, or 1%, at $67.05 a barrel, at 1208 GMT, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 68 cents, or 1.1%, to $63.31 a barrel. Sign up here. Prices had settled 0.6% higher in the previous trading session after Israel said it had attacked Hamas leadership in Doha. Both benchmarks rose nearly 2% shortly after the attack, but then retraced much of their gains. Elsewhere, geopolitical tensions also rose when Poland shot down drones during a widespread Russian attack in western Ukraine on Wednesday, marking the first time a NATO member fired shots in the war. However, there was no immediate threat of a supply disruption. "The dark cloud of surplus ahead is ... hanging over the market with Brent trading two dollars lower than last Tuesday. Geopolitical risk premiums in oil rarely last long unless actual supply disruption kicks in," SEB analysts said. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump has urged the European Union to impose 100% tariffs on China and India - major buyers of Russian oil - as a strategy to pressure Moscow, according to sources. With European Union officials in Washington to discuss Russia, European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen said on Wednesday the bloc was considering a faster phase-out of Russian fossil fuels as part of new sanctions against Moscow. Traders expect the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its September 16-17 meeting, which would boost economic activity and demand for oil. But the supply outlook remains bearish. The U.S. Energy Information Administration cautioned global crude prices will be under significant pressure in the coming months because of rising inventories as OPEC+ increases output. U.S. crude, gasoline and distillate stocks rose last week, market sources said, citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. Government data is due at 1430 GMT . https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-up-after-israeli-attacks-oversupply-caps-gains-2025-09-10/
