2025-09-10 11:56

STRASBOURG, Sept 10 (Reuters) - The European Union is considering a faster phase-out of Russian fossil fuels as part of new sanctions against Moscow, European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen said on Wednesday after U.S. pressure to stop buying Russian oil. EU officials are in Washington to discuss coordination on further Russia sanctions. While the EU and U.S. consider tougher measures to reduce Moscow’s revenue, however, internal divisions and the need for global support raise questions over how effective such steps will be in isolating Russia. Sign up here. U.S. President Donald Trump, seeking to end Russia's war with Ukraine, told European leaders last week to stop buying oil from Russia, a White House official said. He has also urged the EU to hit China and India with up to 100% tariffs to increase pressure on Moscow. In her State of the Union address to the European Parliament, von der Leyen said that the EU is "looking at phasing out Russian fossil fuels faster, the shadow fleet and third countries" as part of the 19th package of sanctions now being prepared. The Kremlin said on Monday that no sanctions would ever force Russia to change course in the war in Ukraine. The EU has already banned imports of seaborne crude oil from Russia - accounting for more than 90% of its Russian oil imports - and imposed a price cap on Russian oil trade. It has targeted more than 400 tankers with sanctions in recent years to curb transportation of Russian oil by the so-called shadow fleet of ageing and unregulated vessels and is now negotiating legal proposals to completely phase out imports of Russian oil and gas by January 1, 2028, starting with new purchases and short-term contracts next year. Sanctions could bring forward these deadlines, but Hungary and Slovakia have so far opposed such measures on gas imports, which they say would raise energy prices. EU countries agree sanctions by unanimity while other legal proposals can be passed with support from a reinforced majority of countries. Some analysts question the effectiveness of new sanctions. "We have long maintained the view that Western powers need to have China and India on board with their sanctions for them to be truly effective," said ICIS analyst Ajay Parmar. "We also think it unlikely that the EU will realistically be willing to apply sanctions on India or China, nor the UAE, which has facilitated the flow of Russian oil since the war began." Hungary and Slovakia import around 200,000-250,000 barrels per day of Russian oil, equivalent to about 3% of EU oil demand. EU purchases of Russian gas remain far bigger. Europe is expected to purchase about 13% of its gas from Russia this year, down from roughly 45% before Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, EU data shows. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/eu-considers-faster-russian-oil-gas-exit-after-us-pressure-2025-09-10/

2025-09-10 11:54

All eyes on inflation reports before Fed meeting next week Markets wagering on rate cut as labour market stumbles Investor unease at political flux across the globe LONDON, Sept 10 (Reuters) - The dollar held steady on Wednesday ahead of U.S. inflation data this week that could help shape the outlook for Federal Reserve policy, while a fraught geopolitical backdrop underpinned the likes of the Swiss franc. Employment data in the last week has shown the U.S. economy created far fewer jobs in the last year than expected, which has made a rate cut from the Fed next week look like a certainty. Sign up here. Yet it has not dented confidence in the equities market, where stocks trade at record highs, nor has it had much immediate impact on the dollar itself, even as investors weigh up the chances of a jumbo half-point cut from the Fed next week. Israel's attempted killing of Hamas leaders with an airstrike on Qatar on Tuesday, along with Poland shooting down drones that entered its airspace during a Russian attack in western Ukraine on Wednesday, were keeping investors nervous. "The market has made up its mind, and probably quite rightly, that the Fed is going to be cutting interest rates. But for one, there's been quite a lot in the price in terms of between now and the end of next year," said Jane Foley, head FX strategist at Rabobank. "On the other hand, playing in the same direction is the geopolitical uncertainty. There is the Poland news, there is the Qatar news. None of that is reassuring," she said. The euro was subdued against the dollar, but jumped as much as 0.5% against the Polish zloty to 4.268 zloty, set for its biggest one-day rise in three months at one point . In terms of Fed expectations, traders are fully pricing in a quarter-point cut next week, with a minor chance of a half-point cut. This week's reports on wholesale inflation due on Wednesday, and consumer inflation on Thursday, could affect that outside prospect of a larger cut, analysts said. BAR HIGH FOR 50-BASIS POINT CUT "The bar for a 50-bp move is high, there would likely need to be a clear downside surprise in core inflation to give doves cover," said Kieran Williams, head of Asia FX at InTouch Capital Markets. "Given sticky services prices and the Fed’s preference for signalling gradualism, a jumbo cut next week looks unlikely, but the data will shape how aggressively the market prices the easing path into year-end." Meanwhile, the prime ministers of both France and Japan have resigned this week, stirring up uncertainty over the political and economic outlook in two out of the world's seven richest countries. The euro was little changed at $1.1701 after dropping 0.5% in the previous session, while the yen was flat at 147.47 per dollar and the Swiss franc was not far off Tuesday's seven-week highs, with the dollar trading at 0.797 francs. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six others, was steady. It has fallen by 10% this year, dented by chaotic U.S. trade and fiscal policy and by growing concern about the independence of the central bank. Markets reflected little reaction to a court ruling that temporarily blocked President Donald Trump from removing Fed Governor Lisa Cook, a case that is likely to end up before the U.S. Supreme Court. Data on Tuesday showed the economy likely created 911,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months through March than previously estimated, suggesting jobs growth was already stalling before Trump's aggressive tariffs on imports. The data did not offer much insight into job creation since March, leaving U.S. rate expectations unchanged for now. "I think a 50 bp would do more damage than good for sentiment at this point," said Matt Simpson, a senior market analyst at City Index in Brisbane. "Besides, the Fed will want to save face and not fully succumb to Trump's wishes. "Markets are pricing in three cuts over the next three meetings and the Fed is in a good position to play nicely with those expectations, or increase odds of cuts in 2026 - without succumbing to a 50 bp cut next week," Simpson said. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/dollar-firm-geopolitics-heat-up-investors-await-us-inflation-data-2025-09-10/

2025-09-10 11:53

BENGALURU, Sept 10 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury yield curve will steepen over coming months as increasing Federal Reserve rate cut bets drive short-term yields lower even as longer-dated ones remain high, a Reuters survey of bond strategists showed. Treasury yields have broadly fallen recently with the benchmark 10-year yield hitting a five-month low after jobs data showed a weakening labor market, exacerbated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics saying the U.S. economy created over 900,000 fewer jobs than previously estimated in the 12 months through March. Sign up here. That has all but cemented expectations of a 25 basis point U.S. rate reduction this month and also ramped up bets on deeper cuts to come, despite inflation being above the Fed's 2.0% target. Interest rate futures are currently pricing three 25 bps cuts from the central bank this year, compared to just two a few weeks ago, and at least another three more in 2026. That has pushed bond strategists in a September 5-10 Reuters survey to broadly lower their Treasury yield projections. The 10-year yield, currently 4.08%, would rise to 4.20% in three months and trade at that level in six, lower than the median 4.30% forecast last month, the latest survey showed. It was then forecast to rise to 4.25% in a year. Robert Tipp, chief investment strategist at PGIM Fixed Income, said that it looked like the Fed would prioritize stopping a weakening of the labor market while accepting an above-target inflation rate. "There's going to be an interpretation that as tariffs stabilize, we'll see the level of inflation drop down to target...But that will be a risky strategy given what we've seen post COVID, where transitory turned out to take several years," he said. "Short-term yields will likely decline, but the center of the range for 10-year Treasuries will not change very much, allowing the curve to normalize to a more typical positive slope," Tipp added. The interest rate-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield, currently 3.55%, was forecast to hold its level in six months and then fall to 3.40% in a year, poll medians showed. If realized, the spread between 2- and 10-year yields would rise from around 50 bps currently to 57 bps at end-November and to 85 bps in a year - the widest since January 2022. That reflects the consensus among analysts who answered a separate question, with 85% of them, or 17 of 20, predicting the U.S. yield curve would steepen by year-end. One driver for the steepening is a rising term premium - compensation for holding debt over time - fueled by rising fiscal deficits from President Donald Trump’s tax-cut and spending package, persistent tariff uncertainty and questions over the Fed's independence. That has left investors wary of cracks in the bond market after recent whipsaw moves, warning fiscal risks and White House pressure on the Fed to cut rates may be underpriced. “Fiscal debt was a risk the market didn’t really pay attention to for quite some time, and then it was the only thing they paid attention to," said Connor Fitzgerald, fixed income portfolio manager at Wellington Management. "It’s somewhat reflected in the price, I’d say. But over time, larger deficits are a force that will push longer-dated Treasury yields higher." https://www.reuters.com/business/us-treasury-curve-steepen-fed-easing-bets-fiscal-strain-2025-09-10/

2025-09-10 11:42

Gold hit record high of $3,673.95/oz on Tuesday ANZ raises year-end gold price forecast to $3,800 US PPI data due at 1230 GMT Sept 10 (Reuters) - Gold prices hovered near an all-time high on Wednesday, buoyed by expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut later this month, while market participants awaited U.S. inflation data for clues on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path. Spot gold was up 0.8% at $3,655.77 per ounce, as of 1127 GMT, after hitting a record high of $3,673.95 on Tuesday. Sign up here. U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 0.3% to $3,694.60. "Gold's gains come on the back of expectations of Fed rate cuts, supported by signs of cooling in the U.S. labour market, which have weakened the dollar," Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at ActivTrades said. Last week, U.S. nonfarm payroll data pointed to weakening labor market conditions, and sealed the case for a rate cut at the Fed's policy meeting next week. The U.S. economy likely also created 911,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months through March than previously estimated, the government said on Tuesday, suggesting that job growth was already stalling before U.S. President Donald Trump's aggressive tariffs on imports. "The outsized jobs revisions in the U.S. are almost certainly adding to the pervading sense of economic uncertainty and such out-of-left-field economic shifts underscore the role of gold as a safe-haven asset," independent analyst Ross Norman said. Markets are pricing in a 92% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut, while the likelihood of a larger 50-basis-point cut stands at around 8%, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool , opens new tab. The U.S. producer price inflation data, due at 1230 GMT, and the consumer price inflation reading on Thursday will be closely watched for more cues on the Fed's interest rate trajectory. Non-yielding gold typically performs well in a low-interest-rate environment. Gold prices have gained 39% so far this year, following a 27% jump in 2024, bolstered by a soft dollar, strong central bank accumulation, dovish monetary settings and heightened global uncertainty. ANZ Group raised its year-end gold price forecast on Wednesday to $3,800 per ounce and expects prices to peak near $4,000 by next June. Elsewhere, spot silver added 0.8% to $41.20 per ounce. Platinum gained 1.8% to $1,392.10 and palladium rose 1.6% to $1,166.64. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-hovers-near-record-high-ahead-us-inflation-data-2025-09-10/

2025-09-10 11:29

Duties target over $2 billion worth of EU pork imports Move escalates trade tensions between China and the EU Offal products make up half of EU exports to China Spain most exposed to the duties PARIS, Sept 10 (Reuters) - European pork producers face a squeeze on profit margins after China, their largest market, imposed anti-dumping duties of up to 62.4% on imports of EU pork products. The provisional tariffs, effective on Wednesday, target over $2 billion worth of annual exports and threaten to erode margins across the European Union’s pork sector. Sign up here. China accounts for a quarter of EU pork exports. Shipments to China rose 4% in the first half of 2025 after a three-year decline. Offal products — such as pig ears, noses and feet — make up more than half of these exports, according to Rabobank. These items are popular in China but have limited demand elsewhere, leaving European producers few alternative markets. “We’ll continue exporting but at lower value,” said Thierry Meyer, vice president of French pork industry group Inaporc. He warned that the duties, combined with a stronger euro, could pressure exporters and reduce farmgate prices, potentially slowing pig production in Europe. The sector had recently begun recovering, helped by falling input costs for feed and energy. The new tariffs now threaten that rebound. On Friday, China’s Ministry of Commerce said a preliminary investigation found evidence of dumping that harmed its domestic producers. The investigation and duties are widely viewed as retaliation for EU tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, escalating trade tensions that have also seen Beijing investigate European brandy and dairy. European pork producers had hoped that Beijing’s decision to extend the investigation for six months in June meant a resolution to the broader EV dispute was within reach. FEW ALTERNATIVE MARKETS FOR OFFAL Initial Chinese tariffs on EU pork products, to be paid as deposits, range from 15.6% to 32.7% for companies cooperating with the probe, while others face the full 62.4% rate. The investigation is set to conclude in December. “Although trade will continue, downward pressure on EU pig prices is expected,” said Eva Gocsik, global animal protein strategist at Rabobank. She noted that alternative markets like pet food offer limited margins for offal, while diverting non-offal meat could intensify price competition in other markets. Spain is the most exposed EU country, accounting for nearly half of pork exports to China, followed by the Netherlands, Denmark, and France. Spanish pork group Interporc and the Danish Agriculture & Food Council, which represents agri-food sectors including pork, said they would continue engaging with Chinese authorities during the investigation. European producers fear losing market share, as U.S. exporters did earlier this year when China imposed additional duties amid its trade dispute with Washington. Brazil, a lower-cost and fast-growing supplier, is seeking approval to export offal to China and could benefit from the EU’s setback. China remains partially reliant on pork imports, especially offal. However, domestic supply has recently surged. Last month, China’s state planner announced plans to purchase 10,000 metric tons of frozen pork for reserves. “They have too many pigs and demand is not there,” said Jean-Paul Simier, meat analyst at French commodities research group Cyclope. “So it’s also an opportunity to slow imports from Europe.” https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-retaliatory-tariffs-squeeze-eu-pork-producers-2025-09-10/

2025-09-10 11:23

STRASBOURG, Sept 10 (Reuters) - The European Union is considering a faster phase-out of Russian fossil fuels as part of new sanctions against Moscow, European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen said on Wednesday, following U.S. pressure to stop buying Russian oil. EU officials are currently in Washington to discuss coordination on new Russia sanctions with the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump. Sign up here. Trump, seeking to end Russia's war with Ukraine, told European leaders last week to stop buying oil from Russia, a White House official said. He has also urged the EU to hit China and India with up to 100% tariffs in order to pressure Moscow. In her State of the Union address to the European Parliament, von der Leyen said that as part of the 19th package of Russia sanctions now being prepared, "we are particularly looking at phasing out Russian fossil fuels faster, the shadow fleet and third countries". The EU has already banned imports of seaborne crude oil from Russia - which covers more than 90% of its Russian oil imports - and imposed a price cap on Russian oil trade. The bloc is now negotiating legal proposals to completely phase out imports of Russian oil and gas by January 1, 2028, starting with new purchases and short-term contracts next year. Sanctions could bring forward these deadlines, but Hungary and Slovakia have so far opposed such measures on gas imports, which they say would raise energy prices. EU countries agree sanctions by unanimity, while other legal proposals can be passed with support from a reinforced majority of countries. As Russia's most lucrative exports, fuel revenues have helped Moscow to fund its war in Ukraine. Hungary and Slovakia import around 200,000-250,000 barrels per day of Russian oil, equivalent to around 3% of EU oil demand. EU purchases of Russian gas remain far bigger. Europe is expected to purchase around 13% of its gas from Russia this year, down from roughly 45% before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, according to EU figures. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/eu-looking-faster-russian-oil-gas-exit-after-us-pressure-2025-09-10/