2025-09-10 10:42

LONDON, Sept 10 (Reuters) - What matters in U.S. and global markets today By Mike Dolan, Editor-At-Large, Financial Industry and Financial Markets, Reuters Open Interest , opens new tab Sign up here. Global equities rose early on Wednesday as bets for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week solidified following more bad news on the U.S. jobs front. Traders’ attention will now turn to U.S. producer and consumer inflation data releases set for today and tomorrow. While hot prints could create some noise in rates market, few expect anything to significantly alter the Fed’s plans for next week. In today’s column, I explain why stablecoins could entrench U.S. dollar dominance and why that is worrying regulators. Today's Market Minute Chart of the day Gold prices have risen almost 40% so far this year, following a 27% jump in 2024. This years’ spike has been driven by a weak dollar, strong central bank purchases, expectations of dovish monetary policy and rising geopolitical uncertainty. ROI markets columnist Jamie McGeever recently argued that central bank’s gold accumulation may be unstoppable. Today's events to watch Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for the newsletter here. You can find ROI on the Reuters website , opens new tab, and you can follow us on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X. , opens new tab Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles , opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/global-markets-view-usa-2025-09-10/

2025-09-10 10:39

OSLO, Sept 10 (Reuters) - Norway's annual core inflation rate held steady at 3.1% in August, in line with July, official data showed on Wednesday, but underlying data pointed to an acceleration of prices, casting doubt on the prospect of interest rate cuts. Norway's currency, the crown, strengthened slightly on the news, trading at 11.61 at 1009 GMT against 11.66 shortly before the data release. Sign up here. While Statistics Norway's (SSB) August core inflation reading had appeared to be in line with analyst forecasts and the central bank's prediction, which both stood at 3.1%, it did not take into account a change in day-care costs. SSB in a statement said that without the government's increase in day-care subsidies, which kicked in last month, inflation would have risen by an estimated 0.4 percentage points more. Underlying core inflation thus stood closer to 3.5% year-on-year, Handelsbanken said in a note to clients, well above the central bank's 3.1% expectation. Norges Bank, which targets core inflation of 2.0%, is scheduled to make its next policy rate announcement on September 18. "Altogether, today's figures were stronger than expected... This raises questions about whether (Norges) Bank will deliver a cut next week," Handelsbanken wrote. The Norwegian economy has been stronger than expected this year but the central bank cut rates in June when prices eased, its first reduction of borrowing costs in five years. On Thursday the central bank will release its quarterly business activity survey, known as a regional network report. "An upside surprise in tomorrow's regional network could be enough for Norges Bank to postpone the expected rate cut," brokers DNB Carnegie said in a note. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/norways-underlying-inflation-casts-doubt-rate-cut-2025-09-10/

2025-09-10 10:27

MUMBAI, Sept 10 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee closed unchanged on Wednesday as tariff-related uncertainties continued to dominate the Asian currency's price action following mixed signals from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding recent bilateral trade tensions. The rupee ended little changed on Wednesday to 88.1000 against Tuesday's close of 88.1025. Sign up here. The local currency's recent movement has largely been dictated by the ongoing trade tensions between India and the United States, traders said. The U.S. has already imposed punitive tariffs on Indian goods of up to 50% - among the steepest levies on any American trading partner. Late on Tuesday, Trump said on Truth Social that Washington and New Delhi are continuing negotiations to address trade barriers, expressing confidence in a successful outcome. However, he also pushed the European Union to impose tariffs of up to 100% on India over its purchases of Russian oil, a move that could prove to be a drag on the rupee, which has been among the worst-performing Asian currencies this year. Apart from the punitive U.S. tariffs on Indian goods, sustained dollar outflows by foreign investors have also weighed on the rupee. After reaching an all-time high of 88.36 on Friday, the rupee is expected to trade in a near-term range of 87.50–88.40, said Amit Pabari, managing director at CR Forex. “Softer U.S. jobs data and expectations of Fed rate cuts provide support, though existing tariffs may cap any sustained recovery,” Pabari added. Weak U.S. jobs growth in August has heightened expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by at least 25 basis points next week, offering some respite to the Indian currency, traders and analysts said. Meanwhile, most Asian currencies traded lower on Wednesday, with the Malaysian ringgit leading the losses. The dollar index was down 0.06% at 97.747 as of 1537 IST. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/rupee-ends-flat-trumps-mixed-signals-trade-tariffs-2025-09-10/

2025-09-10 09:52

Montenegro aims for EU, euro zone membership by 2028, says PM EU expansion push picked up after Russian invasion of Ukraine Montenegro growth, fiscal improvements bolster EU membership bid FRANKFURT, Sept 10 (Reuters) - Montenegro hopes to join the European Union and the euro zone in 2028, Prime Minister Milojko Spajic said on Tuesday, in what would mark some progress in the EU's stalled eastward expansion. Spajic told reporters the small Balkan nation, whose economy almost doubled in the last five years, was also looking to sell fresh government bonds to institutional or retail investors. Sign up here. The EU has been making a renewed push to bring in new members since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, saying the outbreak of war has highlighted the danger of having "grey zones" just outside the bloc that are not firmly part of the West. Spajic said he was aiming to meet the remaining criteria set by the European Commission -- mainly relating to building up institutions -- by the end of next year and to start accession talks in 2027. The 27 existing members of the EU, which began accession talks with Montenegro in 2012, would then need to approve the country's entry to the bloc. "If we have 27 hands supporting our candidacy, we are hoping to see ourselves in the EU in 2028," he said after meeting German businessmen and politicians. Spajic hoped Montenegro, which adopted the euro well before gaining full independence from Serbia in 2006, would also be admitted at the same time to the euro area, a club of 20 countries that have a seat at the European Central Bank. Under EU rules, this will require it to keep its inflation and long-term interest rates within a given spread of those of the euro area's best-performing members. Inflation in Montenegro, which imports more than it exports including energy and food, averaged 3.1% in the 12 months to July, above the euro area and EU averages. It was last 4.7%. Economic output, however, has grown to 7.8 billion euros last year from 4.2 billion in 2020, Spajic said. Net salaries doubled from 500 euros in early 2022 to 1,000 euros this year thanks to tax cuts, he added. But the Montenegrin central bank raised some questions about the government's revenue and debt projections last year. Spajic, a former Goldman Sachs credit analyst, defended his government's performance and the reciprocal independence of the executive branch and the central bank. "Our deficit is around 1% for the first eight months of the year," he said. He said his government was weighing new debt sales to institutional investors in London, Frankfurt or Tokyo, or a retail bond for the domestic audience. https://www.reuters.com/world/montenegro-hopes-join-eu-euro-zone-2028-eyes-bond-sales-2025-09-10/

2025-09-10 08:18

Regulating cryptocurrencies would grant them legitimacy, document shows A ban cannot tackle peer-to-peer trades, document says Use of stablecoins could hurt India's digital payments system, document says India maintains partial oversight; tax laws deter speculative crypto trading NEW DELHI, Sept 10 (Reuters) - India is leaning towards not creating legislation to regulate cryptocurrencies in the country and instead will maintain partial oversight, fearing that bringing the digital assets into its mainstream financial system could raise systemic risks, a government document shows. The document, seen by Reuters, cites the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) view that, in practice, containing the risks of cryptocurrencies through regulation would be difficult. Sign up here. Global acceptance of cryptocurrencies has improved since U.S. President Donald Trump took office and prices of bitcoin, the world's largest crypto-asset by market capitalisation, have hit record highs. The U.S. has also passed legislation permitting wider use of stablecoins, which are cryptocurrencies backed by fiat currencies making them less vulnerable to wild swings. China continues to ban cryptocurrencies but is considering a Yuan-backed stablecoin, Reuters reported last month. Although, Japan and Australia are developing regulatory frameworks for such virtual assets, they maintain a cautious stance without actively promoting the sector. Regulating cryptocurrencies in India would grant them "legitimacy", and "may cause the sector to become systemic", the government document, prepared this month, said. In contrast, while an outright ban can tackle the "alarming" risks from largely speculative crypto assets, it would not be able to tackle peer-to-peer transfers or trades on decentralised exchanges, it added. The Indian government's formal views have not been previously reported. India's federal finance ministry and the RBI did not immediately respond to Reuters request for comment. In 2021, the government prepared a bill to ban private cryptocurrencies, but didn't go ahead with the legislation. During its G20 presidency in 2023, India had called for a global framework to regulate such assets. In 2024, the government planned to issue a discussion paper on its crypto stance but deferred it, saying it would review the issue after the U.S. formalised the use of cryptocurrencies. At present, global crypto exchanges can operate in India after registering locally with a government agency tasked with due diligence to check money laundering risks. Punitive taxes are imposed on gains from cryptocurrencies. But the central bank has repeatedly cautioned against the risks in dealing with them, leading to a near freeze in trading between the country's formal financial system and cryptocurrencies. Indians have investments worth $4.5 billion into various cryptocurrencies, and use of such assets is currently neither significant nor a systemic risk to financial stability, the document said. The current limited regulatory clarity has helped contain the risks of cryptocurrencies on the regulated financial system, it said. The present tax and other laws act as a deterrent towards speculative trading in cryptocurrencies, and penalise fraud and illegal activities, it added. As regulatory approach towards cryptocurrencies varies globally, "charting a clear way forward or identifying a uniform policy approach is not straightforward," the document said. STABLECOINS Trump on July 18 signed the GENIUS Act into law, setting federal rules and guidelines for cryptocurrency tokens pegged to the U.S. dollar known as stablecoins. The document said the adoption by the U.S. of dollar-backed stablecoins and promoting their use as payment instruments will impact both advanced and emerging economies. This would require "close examination" by the government as most stablecoins in circulation globally are pegged to the U.S. dollar, it said. Stablecoins target price stability but can fluctuate due to market shocks or liquidity constraints impacting financial markets, the document said. Widespread use of stablecoins could fragment national payment systems such as fast inter-bank transfers, and weaken the country's digital payments system, Unified Payment Interface (UPI), it said. ($1 = 88.1660 Indian rupees) https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-resists-full-crypto-framework-fears-systemic-risks-document-shows-2025-09-10/

2025-09-10 07:47

BEIJING, Sept 10 (Reuters) - Natural disasters in China caused direct economic loss of 19.6 billion yuan ($2.75 billion) in August, the Ministry of Emergency Management said on Wednesday. Across the country, more than 10 million people were affected by floods, droughts and other disasters last month, while 122 people were killed or went missing, the ministry said. Sign up here. ($1 = 7.1210 Chinese yuan renminbi) https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/natural-disasters-cost-china-28-billion-august-2025-09-10/