2025-09-04 19:12

ADP and jobless claim data indicate weakening labor market All eyes on Friday's payrolls report for policy cues Bond market ructions ease but fiscal worries linger NEW YORK/LONDON, Sept 4 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar edged higher on Thursday in a volatile week with markets eyeing a crucial jobs report, after data indicating labor market weakness reinforced expectations the Federal Reserve will cut rates this month. Data showed on Thursday that the number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits increased more than expected last week, consistent with softening labor market conditions. Furthermore, the ADP National Employment Report showed U.S. private payrolls increased less than expected in August. Sign up here. The dollar edged higher in relatively steady trade, reflecting investor wariness of making any big moves ahead of Friday's more comprehensive non-farm payrolls report. The dollar strengthened 0.33% to 148.585 against the Japanese yen . It was up 0.22% to 0.80615 against the Swiss franc . The greenback lost ground against both safe-haven currencies on Wednesday. The euro fell 0.13% to $1.16455. "It's been choppy ... with enough questions around where the economy is at that people are just likely trying to square up before Friday's number and not taking any outward bets one way or the other," said Marvin Loh, senior global market strategist at State Street in Boston. The dollar index rose 0.20% to 98.334 after dropping in the previous session. The U.S. dollar tends to strengthen across the board against peers if the monthly payrolls report beats market expectations, but it weakens if the data falls short of estimates, according to Goldman Sachs analysts led by Karen Fishman. "With risks to the labor market skewed to the downside and our more dovish view on the Fed, we have been recommending being short USD/JPY with a target of 142," the analysts wrote. Several Federal Reserve officials said labour market worries continue to underpin their view that rate cuts still lie ahead for the central bank, boosting expectations of an imminent rate cut. The Fed is due to meet on September 16 and 17. Traders are pricing in a near-100% chance of the Fed cutting interest rates later this month, up from 87% a week ago, CME FedWatch showed. In the bond market, yields on long-end notes across the globe have risen as investors become increasingly anxious about the fiscal health of major economies from Japan to Britain and the United States. U.S. Treasury yields slipped. The 2-year note yield fell 1.8 basis points to 3.594%. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell 3.1 basis points to 4.18%. A closely watched auction of 30-year Japanese government bonds passed smoothly on Thursday. In other currencies, the pound sterling weakened 0.12% to $1.34310 after gaining in the last session. The Canadian dollar weakened 0.25% versus the greenback to C$1.3827 per dollar. The Australian dollar weakened 0.44% versus the greenback to $0.6514. Spot gold fell 0.35% to $3,546.28 an ounce, easing from a record high reached on Wednesday. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/dollar-edges-higher-with-investors-focused-labor-market-data-2025-09-04/

2025-09-04 19:02

US crude stocks rose unexpectedly last week, EIA and API data OPEC+ to consider raising oil production further, sources say OPEC+ meeting set for Sunday US economic data suggests potential Fed interest rate cut NEW YORK, Sept 4 (Reuters) - Oil prices eased about 1% to a two-week low on Thursday on a surprise build in U.S. crude inventories last week and expectations that OPEC+ producers will increase output targets at a meeting this weekend. Brent crude futures fell 65 cents, or 1.0%, to settle at $66.95 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 49 cents, or 0.8%, to settle at $63.48. Sign up here. That was the lowest close for Brent since August 20. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said energy firms added 2.4 million barrels of crude into storage during the week ended August 29 as refineries headed into maintenance season. , That was a surprise build in crude stocks compared with the 2.0-million-barrel withdrawal analysts forecast in a Reuters poll and was higher than the 0.6-million-barrel increase that market sources said the American Petroleum Institute trade group cited in its figures on Wednesday. "This is a little bit of a bearish report with that crude build," said John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital. The EIA and API reported inventory data a day later than usual due to the U.S. Labor Day holiday on Monday. Eight members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies like Russia in OPEC+ will consider further increases to production in October at a meeting on Sunday, two sources familiar with the discussions told Reuters. A potential OPEC+ production hike would send a strong signal that regaining market share takes priority over price support, said Tamas Varga, a senior analyst at PVM Oil Associates brokerage and consulting firm. OPEC+ has already agreed to raise output targets by about 2.2 million barrels per day from April to September, in addition to a 300,000-bpd quota increase for the United Arab Emirates. ECONOMIC DATA In the world's biggest economy, some shaky U.S. macroeconomic data that showed new applications for jobless benefits increased more than expected last week, supporting expectations the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates this month. Investors have viewed the Fed’s September meeting as a lock for a quarter percentage point cut in what is now a 4.25% to 4.5% federal funds interest rate target range. Central banks, like the Fed, use interest rates to control inflation. Lower rates reduce consumer borrowing costs and can boost economic growth and demand for oil. Questions about Fed independence took center stage on Thursday as Trump's economic advisor Stephen Miran testified at a Senate Banking Committee hearing on his nomination to the U.S. central bank's seven-member governing board, with lawmakers from both parties pressing him for a commitment to be politically neutral. In Germany, Europe's biggest economy, leading economic institutes trimmed growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, citing U.S. tariffs and delays to the boost from higher public spending in an export-reliant economy struggling to regain momentum. U.S. President Donald Trump told European leaders on Thursday that Europe must stop purchasing Russian oil that he said is helping Moscow fund its war against Ukraine, a White House official said. Any reduction in the amount of crude Russia may export could boost prices. Russia was the second biggest producer of crude in 2024 after the U.S. Moscow, however, is not waiting for Europe to buy more oil. Russia's largest oil producer Rosneft (ROSN.MM) , opens new tab has secured an additional deal on supply of 2.5 million metric tons of oil per year to China via Kazakhstan, Interfax news agency quoted Russian Energy Minister Sergei Tsivilev as saying. In Venezuela, an OPEC member sanctioned by the U.S., oil exports rose to a nine-month high of 900,000 bpd last month after U.S. oil major Chevron (CVX.N) , opens new tab received a license that has allowed the country's crude to return to the U.S. market. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-ease-surprise-build-us-crude-stockpiles-opec-consider-output-hike-2025-09-04/

2025-09-04 17:50

OTTAWA, Sept 4 (Reuters) - Canada will soon unveil a series of promised measures to help the steel and aluminum sector deal with U.S. tariffs, and will also aid canola farmers, government officials said on Thursday. Industry Minister Melanie Joly told reporters in Toronto that aid designed to help aluminum companies overcome uncertainties caused by the tariffs would be rolled out in the coming days. Sign up here. Joly also said Ottawa would help the steel sector pivot away from U.S. markets, but did not give details. Separately, the office of Prime Minister Mark Carney said the government would shortly announce measures to help canola farmers, who have been hit by Chinese tariffs against the oilseed crop. The iPolitics news service, citing sources, said the government was preparing to make a series of major announcements on Friday, focusing on economic and industrial competitiveness. Carney's office declined to comment. Canada is still hoping for relief from U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum, and autos, and work to have the measures lifted is continuing, the federal minister in charge of bilateral trade said earlier on Thursday. Dominic LeBlanc, speaking to reporters in Toronto, said Canada was seeking common ground with Washington on the matter. https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/canada-unveil-promised-aid-aluminum-canola-sectors-soon-2025-09-04/

2025-09-04 16:28

NEW YORK, Sept 4 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs lowered its expected rate cut from next week's Turkish central bank meeting to 200 basis points, from the previous 350 bps, citing recent data showing both strong economic growth and hotter-than-expected inflation. "With Q2 GDP growth far surpassing expectations— despite weaker domestic demand—and August inflation coming in higher than forecast, we believe the (Turkish central bank) will opt for a smaller cut compared to the previous meeting," Goldman said in a Thursday note. Sign up here. JPMorgan on Wednesday said it also expects a policy rate cut of 200 basis points at the Sept. 11 meeting, down from a previously anticipated 300 basis points. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/goldman-lowers-turkish-rate-cut-expectations-citing-inflation-strong-gdp-2025-09-04/

2025-09-04 14:37

Merchandise trade deficit at C$4.94 billion in July Trade surplus with the U.S. up 80% to C$6.7 billion Overall exports rose by 0.9% to C$61.86 billion OTTAWA, Sept 4 (Reuters) - Canada's trade deficit narrowed in July as overall exports rose, especially driven by outbound shipments of crude oil and passenger cars to its biggest trading partner the United States, Statistics Canada said on Thursday. Its merchandise trade deficit, or deficit from trading in goods, in July was at C$4.94 billion ($3.57 billion), smaller than last month's C$5.98 billion, but much higher than the same period last year, according to Statistics Canada's data. Sign up here. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast the trade deficit for July at C$4.75 billion. This was the sixth consecutive trade deficit since U.S. President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on Canada, but it has been improving from an all-time record deficit of C$7.6 billion observed in April. Exports to the U.S., which was the destination for 76% of Canada's total goods exports last year, have been on an upswing for the last three months on a monthly basis. Canada exported more crude oil and passenger cars to the U.S. in July, pushing its exports up 5%. But on a year-on-year basis, exports south of the border were still down over 10%. However, imports from the U.S. continued to fall and dropped 2.2% in July. Canada's trade surplus with the U.S. jumped by over 80% to C$6.7 billion in July, its highest since March. In July, exports to the U.S. rose to almost 73% from 68% seen in May, StatsCan data showed. However, economists cautioned that exports hadn't fully recovered. "We haven't completely reversed the trend yet," Ross Prusakowski, deputy chief economist at EDC said, adding that the bounce in energy and autos was due to the significant lows seen in the previous months. Exports to the U.S. are down 2.9% in the first seven months of this year compared with the same period in 2024. And exports to rest of the world are up 14%, he said. Prusakowski said the knock on effects of tariffs are still playing out and will be seen in economic data in the coming months. Large Canadian companies have enjoyed exemptions from tariffs under the USMCA free trade deal which has helped over 90% of Canadian exports to bypass tariffs but smaller companies have struggled. The Canadian dollar was trading down 0.21% to 1.3823 to the U.S. dollar, or 72.34 U.S. cents, after the trade data was released. Bond yields on the government's two-year bonds improved and were down 0.1 basis point at 2.61%. The recent GDP data, which showed that the economy contracted by 1.6%, has led money markets to bet an almost 70% chance of a rate cut on Sept. 17. Overall exports rose by 0.9% to C$61.86 billion in July while imports slowed 0.7% to C$66.80 billion, StatsCan said. Exports of energy products posted the biggest increase in July of 4.2% and exports of motor vehicles and parts increased 6.6%, it said. Shipments of aluminum dropped over 8% and steel exports were down over 25% year-to-date as they faced 50% tariffs. Exports to countries other than the United States were down 8.6% in July, a second consecutive monthly decline and imports from countries excluding the U.S. increased 1.3%. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canadas-trade-deficit-july-narrows-exports-us-rise-2025-09-04/

2025-09-04 14:18

SEC to propose rules for digital asset sales Potential amendments for crypto trading on national exchanges SEC aims to reduce compliance burdens for public companies Sept 4 - The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on Thursday unveiled its rulemaking agenda for the upcoming months, which could see broad proposals to revamp cryptocurrency regulations and reduce rules Wall Street has decried as being overly burdensome. The SEC formally outlined several of its initiatives to overhaul cryptocurrency policies, which SEC Chair Paul Atkins had previewed in July. Those include proposing rules about the offer and sale of digital assets, which the SEC said could potentially include certain exemptions and safe harbors, and clarifying how its broker-dealer rules apply to crypto. Sign up here. The SEC also said it would consider amending its rules to allow for crypto to be traded on national securities exchanges and alternative trading systems. If enacted, those policies would represent a major win for the digital asset industry, which has long pushed for tailored rules that would enable crypto to become more enmeshed with traditional finance. "This regulatory agenda reflects that it is a new day at the Securities and Exchange Commission," Atkins said in a statement. "The items on the agenda represent the commission's renewed focus on supporting innovation, capital formation, market efficiency and investor protection." On the campaign trail last year, President Donald Trump courted crypto cash by pledging to be a "crypto president" and promote the adoption of digital assets. That is in stark contrast to former Democratic President Joe Biden's regulators, who, in a bid to protect Americans from fraud and money laundering, cracked down on the industry. The Biden administration's SEC sued exchanges Coinbase, Binance, and dozens more, alleging they were flouting U.S. laws. Trump's SEC has since dropped those cases. The SEC also plans to propose a plan for "rationalization" of disclosures. The agency's core work includes laying out disclosure requirements meant to increase transparency and reduce risk for investors. The agency also flagged a plan to "to reduce compliance burdens" for public companies in connection with shareholder proposals. https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/us-sec-unveils-agenda-revamp-crypto-policies-ease-wall-street-rules-2025-09-04/