2024-04-23 12:28
April 23 (Reuters) - Russia's economy ministry improved its expectations for 2024 gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 2.8% from 2.3% in new forecasts published on Tuesday, while envisaging a weaker rouble and shrinking current account surplus in the years to come. Russia's economic rebound from a 2022 slump relies heavily on state-funded arms and ammunition production as Moscow prosecutes its war in Ukraine, masking problems that are hampering an improvement in Russians' living standards. The International Monetary Fund this month raised its 2024 forecast for Russia's GDP growth to 3.2% from the 2.6% projected in January, pointing to strong government spending and investment related to the war, as well as higher consumer spending in a tight labour market and strong oil export revenues in spite of Western sanctions. Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov, speaking at a government meeting, said the main factor behind economic growth was domestic consumer and investment demand. The economy ministry expects GDP growth of around 2.3% in 2025-2026, while the rouble is forecast to make a steady decline to trade at an average of 101.2 to the dollar in 2026, compared with current levels around 93. Russia expects oil prices to fall, the forecast showed, and the export price of Russian oil until 2027 is seen at $65 a barrel. Russia's Urals crude currently trades at around $79 per barrel. Russia's success in circumventing the West's oil price cap, through redirecting exports to friendly destinations and the opaque ownership of a so-called shadow fleets of ships to transport oil, has eased sanctions pressure, but reduced export revenues can still harm the budget deficit. RISKS Russia's war in Ukraine is draining state coffers - the liquid part of Moscow's rainy day fund has fallen sharply since the invasion - but economists say that even oil prices as low as $60 a barrel still allow Russia to retain a fiscal safety net that could last for years. Reduced export revenues are seen squeezing Russia's trade and current account balances. The trade balance is expected to drop by more than 30% in the coming years, compared with previous estimates and expectations for the current account surplus are down threefold, to as low as $25.3 billion in 2026. "Risks also remain," Reshetnikov said. "Externally, this is first and foremost a slowdown in the global economy as a whole and in the economies of countries that are Russia's main trading partners, as well as continued sanctions pressure." The ministry improved forecasts for real disposable incomes and retail trade. Incomes, partially driven by high government spending and the tight labour market, are seen increasing 5.2% in 2024, up from 2.7% growth in the previous forecast. The ministry expects inflation to end the year at 5.1%, above the previous estimate and the central bank's 4% target. Analysts expect interest rates, currently at 16%, to stay in double digits until at least mid-2025. The ministry does not anticipate Russia solving its labour shortage conundrum any time soon, according to the forecasts. Unemployment, currently at a record low 2.8%, is seen hovering at 3% from 2024-2027. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-ministry-sees-2024-gdp-28-with-higher-inflation-weaker-rouble-2024-04-23/
2024-04-23 12:26
LONDON, April 23 (Reuters) - A subsidiary of Russia's Gazprom (GAZP.MM) New Tab, opens new tab was on Tuesday ordered by the UK's Supreme Court to stop suing Italian bank UniCredit (CRDI.MI) New Tab, opens new tab in Russia over an aborted gas project. RusKhimAlyans launched multiple lawsuits in the Russian courts after Russia's invasion of Ukraine and subsequent Western sanctions halted work on a liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant at the Baltic port of Ust-Luga in 2022. The company, which is 50% owned by Gazprom, sued UniCredit for around 450 million euros ($480 million) in August 2023 after the Italian bank refused to pay bank guarantees linked to the project, citing Western sanctions. UniCredit obtained an anti-suit injunction in London, preventing RusKhimAlyans from pursuing its case in Russia, on the grounds the parties' contract said they would take any disputes to arbitration in France. RusKhimAlyans tried to overturn that decision at the UK's Supreme Court last week, but its appeal was dismissed on Tuesday. RusKhimAlyans and UniCredit both declined to comment. Last week, Reuters reported that the European Central Bank was poised to order UniCredit to cut back its business with Russia, as European regulators increase the pressure on its lenders. Leading governance adviser Glass Lewis also said earlier this month UniCredit's ongoing presence in Russia exposed the bank to reputational risks. Lawyers representing UniCredit, in court filings for last week's hearing, said the lender faced "direct commercial consequences" if RusKhimAlyans' Russian case continued and could be enforced against "UniCredit's exposed assets in Russia". The case is the latest in a series of lawsuits after German industrial gases company Linde's (LIN.DE) New Tab, opens new tab decision in May 2022 to halt work on the LNG plant after it was advised the export of LNG would breach European Union sanctions. RusKhimAlyans had signed a deal with Linde in 2021 for the construction of the gas plant, with UniCredit, Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE) New Tab, opens new tab and Commerzbank (CBKG.DE) New Tab, opens new tab providing guarantees. Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank have also obtained orders from the English courts to try and prevent RusKhimAlyans from suing them in Russia. Other Western institutions have also been trying to stop Russian litigation via the London courts. Among them, Barclays (BARC.L) New Tab, opens new tab last week was granted an extension of an interim injunction obtained against Russian lender Sovcombank (SVCB.MM) New Tab, opens new tab. Jumpstart your morning with the latest legal news delivered straight to your inbox from The Daily Docket newsletter. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/legal/gazprom-subsidiary-must-stop-russian-lawsuit-against-unicredit-uk-supreme-court-2024-04-23/
2024-04-23 12:09
JOHANNESBURG, April 23 (Reuters) - Chinese mining giant Zijin Mining (601899.SS) New Tab, opens new tab said on Tuesday it would cooperate with authorities in Democratic Republic of Congo after radiation was detected in a shipment of cobalt from its mine in the country, and had recalled it. The company said above-normal radiation levels were detected on a cobalt consignment during a routine customs inspection in Botswana, even though the shipment had been tested prior to being exported. Congolese authorities suspended the operating licence of Zijin's COMMUS mine over the incident, which is being investigated. The miner said the shipment had been issued with a radiation detection qualification report by Congo's General Commission for Atomic Energy (CGEA). While the cobalt hydroxide passed the qualified testing of a third-country radiation protection agency during transportation, authorities in Botswana detected the above-normal radiation levels, the company said. Some Congo producers transport cobalt by road via Zambia and Botswana to be exported via Namibia's port of Walvis Bay. "During customs clearance testing in Botswana, there was a suspected radiation exceedance issue," Zijin said. "We will cooperate with the government joint working group to investigate the root cause as soon as possible, take appropriate measures, and ensure product compliance." Zijin owns a 72% stake in the COMMUS copper and cobalt mine, and the remainder is owned by Congo state miner, Gecamines. COMMUS, based near Congo's southern city of Kolwezi, produced 129,000 tonnes of copper and about 2,200 tons of cobalt last year. Zijin said it had notified Congolese authorities of the higher levels of radiation and initiated the recall of the shipment. Get a look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets with the Morning Bid U.S. newsletter. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/zijin-cooperating-with-congo-probe-after-cobalt-with-radiation-recalled-2024-04-23/
2024-04-23 12:09
NEW DELHI, April 23 (Reuters) - India's agricultural food exports in the 2023/24 financial year fell slightly short of the previous year, hitting about $50 billion as efforts to diversify shipments to the United States, Europe and other markets helped to offset curbs on rice, wheat and sugar exports. The export curbs were imposed by the world's second-largest producer of wheat, rice and sugar last year to rein in rising domestic prices. The curbs have hit food exports by between $5 billion and $6 billion, said commerce ministry official Rajesh Agrawal, adding that overall agriculture exports could be about $50 billion for the year to March 31. That compares with a total of about $53 billion the previous year. "The government aims to reduce dependence on a few items ... and promote a wide range of farm products, such as oilseeds, fruit, vegetables and processed foods," he said. India's merchandise exports fell for the first time in 2023/24 since 2020/21, hit by geopolitical tensions and export curbs. Exports have also been dented by a slowdown in global demand, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and the Red Sea shipping crisis brought on by conflict in the Middle East, Agrawal said. Exports of basmati rice had reached $5.2 billion by the end of February, up 22% year on year, helped by an increase in global prices, he said. Official numbers for the full 12-month period are expected to be announced in the next few days. To boost exports, the government has identified 20 agricultural products with high export potential in developed countries. These include items such as bananas, mangoes, cashew nuts, buffalo meat and alcoholic beverages. Abhishek Dev, chairman of the Agriculture and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA), a state-run agency that aims to boost farm exports, said India's share in the $400 billion global market of such products was only 2.23% in 2022, amounting to $9 billion. "The aim is to capture 4% to 5% market share in the next few years," he said, adding that shipments of bananas and pomegranates had been sent to Russia and the United States. Dev said that India's fruit and vegetable exports rose 14% in 2023/24 to $3.7 billion, followed by a 12.4% rise in exports of meat, dairy and poultry items to $2.8 billion. Coming soon: Get the latest news and expert analysis about the state of the global economy with Reuters Econ World. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-diversifies-food-exports-curbs-domestic-staples-weigh-2024-04-23/
2024-04-23 11:55
LONDON, April 23 (Reuters) - Upward momentum that has propelled copper prices to within a whisker of the psychological $10,000 a metric ton mark is expected to be sustained by the appearance of shortages over the coming months. Copper prices have recently been bolstered by expectations of tight supplies and optimism about demand prospects from energy transition applications such as electric vehicles and new technology such as artificial intelligence and automation. A pick-up in manufacturing activity, particularly in top consumer China where surveys of purchasing managers have started to show expansion has also contributed to enthusiasm for copper which this week hit a two-year peak at $9,988 a ton for a gain of 25% since early October. Prices accelerated higher last year after the prospect of shortages of copper concentrate, a feedstock for metal, was raised by the closure of Canadian miner First Quantum's (FM.TO) New Tab, opens new tab Cobre mine in Panama. "The overarching reality is that we've lost a million tonnes of supply to mine disruptions and the industrial cycle has turned a corner," said Piotr Ortonowski, analyst at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. "The long-term energy transition demand story against a backdrop of underinvestment in new mine supply remains intact." Copper's gains have been partly triggered by the reversal of short -- bets on lower prices -- positions taken when the outlook for Chinese demand looked decidedly gloomy due to shrinking manufacturing activity. "Prices moved up really fast in the last few weeks, we should expect a correction," a copper trader said. Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) are now around $9,644 a ton. Interest rate cuts in the United States, Europe and elsewhere also offer potential for growth and demand. Copper industry sources say tight supplies will soon be seen in draws on stocks in LME approved warehouses and those monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange . Jay Tatum, portfolio manager at Valent Asset Management said copper metal scarcity would be the real test of whether copper prices can be maintained "and go higher". "Copper is transitioning from an investment story that made a lot of promises, to one where some of those promises are starting to be delivered on -- rising copper intensity across the economy, supply side challenges, concentrate tightness and restocking effect after a long manufacturing slowdown." Get a look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets with the Morning Bid U.S. newsletter. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/shortages-key-coppers-upward-price-trajectory-new-peaks-2024-04-23/
2024-04-23 11:48
April 23 (Reuters) - NextEra Energy (NEE.N) New Tab, opens new tab reported first-quarter profit that beat Wall Street estimates on Tuesday, as the world's largest renewable energy company added more customers to its regulated utilities business. Florida Power & Light, NextEra's regulated utilities business that generates most of its electricity from natural gas, benefited from a 32.6% decline in prices New Tab, opens new tab since the start of 2024 through lower fuel spend. The utility also added 100,000 more customers over the same quarter last year. FPL filed a 10-year site plan in April, aiming to increase its solar power generation from 6% in 2023 to 38% in 2033, while doubling battery storage capacity. However, NextEra missed revenue estimates for the quarter, reporting $5.73 billion versus analysts' expectations of $6.15 billion, according to LSEG data, in part due to lower retail sales at FPL during a milder-than-expected winter. The company's clean energy unit, NextEra Energy Resources, added nearly 2,765 megawatts of new renewable and storage projects in the first quarter. However, it reported a lower net income of $966 million, or 47 cents per share, compared to $1.44 billion, or 72 cents per share last year. On an adjusted basis, NextEra earned 91 cents per share in the reported quarter, beating analysts' average estimate of 78 cents, according to LSEG data. The Juno Beach, Florida-based company maintained its adjusted earnings per share forecast for 2024 at between $3.23 and $3.43. NextEra Energy Partners (NEP.N) New Tab, opens new tab, a unit of the company created to acquire, manage and own contracted energy projects, said it would use the proceeds from the sale of STX Midstream to Kinder Morgan, to "complete the NEP Renewables II buyouts due in June 2024 and 2025". The unit reported a core profit of $462 million against $447 million reported last year. The Reuters Power Up newsletter provides everything you need to know about the global energy industry. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/nextera-beats-first-quarter-profit-estimates-2024-04-23/
