2024-04-18 16:21

WASHINGTON, April 18 (Reuters) - The U.S. is further restricting Iran's access to "low-level technology," in response to Iran's April 13 attack on Israel and its military support for Russia, according to a posting Thursday by the U.S. Department of Commerce. The U.S. is adding to the list of items that require a license for export or re-export to Iran, including items made abroad with U.S. technology, the posting said. The new restrictions build on the Commerce Department's February 2023 action targeting Iran's involvement in supplying drones to support Russia's war on Ukraine. They also add to the comprehensive export restrictions on Iran under U.S. law, and restrictions on Russia, Belarus and the occupied Crimea region of Ukraine. The additional export controls come as the United States announced new sanctions on Iran targeting individuals and entities enabling Iran’s drone production, including engine types that power Iran’s Shahed variant unmanned aerial vehicles, which were used in the April 13 attack. Coming soon: Get the latest news and expert analysis about the state of the global economy with Reuters Econ World. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-imposes-new-curbs-irans-access-low-level-tech-after-attack-israel-2024-04-18/

2024-04-18 15:31

WASHINGTON, April 18 (Reuters) - Brazil's presidency of the G20 will submit a roadmap for reforming multilateral development banks for approval by member countries at the finance track meetings scheduled for October, focused on expanding their efficiency and lending capacity. Speaking on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank spring meetings, Haddad invited countries representing the world's 20 largest economies to continue studying and considering IMF's Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) "as a potential instrument for significantly leveraging the financing capacity of the banks." The Inter-American Development Bank and the African Development Bank have proposed channeling SDRs through multilateral development banks (MDBs), aiming to leverage the allocated amount by at least four times its original value for new financing to countries in need. IDB President Ilan Goldfajn told Reuters on Wednesday he expects the IMF to approve this possibility in a meeting scheduled for May. In his remarks at a G20 meeting on MDBs, Haddad emphasized countries should encourage discussions on the role of credit rating agencies, including how new proposals such as callable capital, hybrid capital, and portfolio guarantees could be better reflected in their methodologies. Reports from the IDB and the World Bank last week highlighted the significance of callable capital, which is the amount each member country would have to contribute if called upon, constituting the majority of the total capital of MDBs, as opposed to paid-in capital. While shareholders view callable capital commitments as binding, the likelihood of them being called to actually pay it is considered unlikely. If rating agencies recognize the value of callable capital, it could potentially enable the MDBs to boost lending. The Reuters Daily Briefing newsletter provides all the news you need to start your day. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/g20-review-multilateral-development-banks-reform-roadmap-october-says-brazil-2024-04-18/

2024-04-18 14:11

BENGALURU, April 18 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve will wait until September to cut its key interest rate, according to a majority of 100 economists polled by Reuters, with half saying there will be only two cuts this year and only about a third forecasting more. That change in the outlook - from a June start and two or more additional cuts in a poll published a month ago - follows evidence of persistent strength in the U.S. labor market and a series of stronger-than-expected inflation data. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also said on Tuesday "the recent data ... indicate that it's likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence" that inflation is falling back to the U.S. central bank's 2% target, remarks that dimmed hopes for rate cuts anytime soon. Financial markets, which earlier this year were pricing six Fed rate cuts starting in March, are also expecting the first reduction in September and one more in either November or December. While Reuters polls have consistently forecast fewer Fed rate cuts than markets, both have now come into line in the latest survey following last week's inflation report, blowout retail sales data and more hawkish remarks from Powell. Just over half of economists surveyed, 54 of 100, predicted the first decrease in the federal funds rate to happen in September, pushing that rate to the 5.00%-5.25% range. Twenty-six forecast a July cut and only four said it would happen in June. Last month a two-thirds majority, 72 of 108, expected the first rate cut in June. "This is an economy that surprises us again and again by just how resilient it is. We are having very strong growth and it doesn't seem like the Fed's policy has made that much of a difference," said Jonathan Millar, senior U.S. economist at Barclays. Millar now expects the Fed to cut only once this year, in September, a change from his previous prediction of 75 basis points of rate cuts starting in June. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, which the Fed uses to gauge progress toward its 2% inflation target, rose to an annual rate of 2.7% in March, faster than the 2.5% reported for February, according to estimates presented by Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson this week. The outlook for the various inflation measures - the consumer price index (CPI), CPI excluding food and energy, or core CPI, PCE and core PCE - were broadly upgraded from last month in the latest Reuters survey. None of these measures of inflation were expected to reach 2% until at least 2026. "They say again and again policy is restrictive, but there's a lot of metrics that may suggest they're not nearly as restrictive as they think ... the neutral policy rate in nominal terms is maybe 4.5% to 5.0%. That suggests they're not overly restrictive," Barclays' Millar added. Although there was no majority on how many rate cuts would be delivered this year, half of the participants, 50 of 100, saw two quarter-percentage-point cuts, 34 said more than two, 12 saw only one reduction and four said none. A 60% majority of economists who replied to an additional question, 36 of 60, said the chances were high or very high the Fed would hold rates steady for the remainder of this year. The rest said the probability was low or very low. A few economists now expect the federal funds rate at the end of 2025 to be at least 100 basis points higher than they were expecting just recently, underscoring how quickly the outlook has changed. Steve Englander, head of North America macro strategy at Standard Chartered, said the March CPI data "raise the possibility inflation is proving harder to stamp out than the Fed had thought." "We have delayed our first cut, but also see a rising probability stubborn inflation will shift the question from 'when' to 'whether'," he said. The U.S. economy was forecast to expand at an average 2.3% this year, up from the 2.1% forecast last month. (For other stories from the Reuters global economic poll:) Get a look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets with the Morning Bid U.S. newsletter. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/fed-cut-rates-september-maybe-once-more-this-year-2024-04-18/

2024-04-18 13:39

April 18 (Reuters) - Manufacturing activity in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region expanded by the most in two years in April on the strength of new orders and shipments of finished goods, but renewed input cost pressures could reinforce hesitation among Federal Reserve officials to pivot toward interest rate cuts. The Philadelphia Fed on Thursday said its monthly business conditions index rose to 15.5 from 3.2 in March, exceeding the median estimate among economists in a Reuters poll for a reading of 2.3 and overshooting even the most optimistic forecast among 34 economists surveyed. The data buffers other recent indications of a recovery underway in a U.S. factory sector that by many measures had endured a modest downturn throughout 2023 even as the wider economy grew above its potential. The Philly Fed's index for new orders climbed to its highest since last August and shipments activity was its most brisk since August 2022. The prices paid index rose to its highest since December while prices received by goods producers saw a slight increase. Both measures had trended notably lower through the second half of 2023, among the indicators that Fed officials had embraced at that time as a signal that inflation was on track to return to their 2% target. Their increase this month echoes other recent data showing inflation this year is proving to be stubborn, prompting central bankers to back away from providing any guidance on when policy easing might begin. Factory employment, meanwhile, continued to fall, dropping to its lowest level overall since May 2020, in keeping with other gauges showing sluggish employment in the sector. Manufacturing job growth has been next to non-existent over the past year, with the Labor Department's measure of new factory jobs averaging just 2,000 a month in that span, among the weakest-performing industries in the private sector. Get a look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets with the Morning Bid U.S. newsletter. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/philly-fed-manufacturing-gauge-charges-2-year-high-2024-04-18/

2024-04-18 13:33

MADRID, April 18 (Reuters) - Spain's Energy Minister Teresa Ribera said on Thursday that it was still to early for the government to evaluate a potential stake in Spanish energy firm Naturgy (NTGY.MC) New Tab, opens new tab in view of a possible takeover bid by Abu Dhabi's TAQA (TAQA.AD) New Tab, opens new tab. TAQA confirmed on Wednesday it is in discussions with the three largest shareholders of Naturgy which could lead to a possible full takeover bid for the largest natural gas firm in Spain. As such, the government will have a say on any acquisition. Naturgy and has key contracts with Algeria and also a long-term contract to import some 3 billion cubic metres (bcm) of Russian liquefied natural gas every year. "We will have to see if it makes sense or not to have a participation of the state in this company," Ribera said. "But I think it is premature to consider it. For now, what is needed is vigilant prudence." Last December, the government decided to buy a stake of up to 10% in Telefonica as a counterbalance to the acquisition of a stake in the telecoms operator by Saudi Arabia's STC. It has already acquired a 5% holding. Ribera said the government was waiting for more information on the talks involving the company's main shareholders and TAQA, adding that it was important to make sure Naturgy "does not have any kind of problem in its management". Get U.S. personal finance tips and insight straight to your inbox with the Reuters On the Money newsletter. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/spain-energy-minister-early-say-if-state-will-take-stake-naturgy-2024-04-18/

2024-04-18 13:23

April 18 (Reuters) - Emergency services on the 911 telephone call line were restored late on Wednesday in parts of the United States, officials said, following a widespread outage across all of South Dakota and in parts of Nebraska, Nevada and Texas. Officials in South Dakota, Nevada and Las Vegas said 911 services had been restored, but without identifying the cause of the failure. The U.S. Federal Communications Commission said in a post on X on Thursday that it was aware of reports of outages and that it was investigating. The Department of Homeland Security has warned New Tab, opens new tab of increased risks of cyber attacks on 911 services as they have migrated to digital systems based on Internet Protocol standards. Several cyberattacks targeting 911 systems have taken down the services in recent years, one of which, in 2017, paralyzed 911 centers in more than a dozen states. The department of public safety in South Dakota, police in Las Vegas, the Nebraska county of Douglas and the Texas city of Del Rio had all reported 911 outages on Wednesday evening. Del Rio police said the outage stemmed from an issue with a major cellular carrier, rather than civic systems. Later, the Las Vegas police said their 911 service had been restored, with everyone who called during the outage having been called back and given assistance. Nevada police also said services were back up in the southern part of the state. Authorities had also asked people not to call 911 as a test. Requests for comment from the transportation department's office of emergency medical services, where the national 911 program is housed, were not immediately returned, nor were those sent to the Federal Communications Commission. The Federal Emergency Management Agency also did not respond to requests for comment. Get weekly news and analysis on the U.S. elections and how it matters to the world with the newsletter On the Campaign Trail. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/911-outage-reported-across-multiple-us-states-officials-say-2024-04-18/