2024-03-18 12:20
BAGHDAD, March 18 (Reuters) - Iraq will reduce its crude exports to 3.3 million barrels a day in the coming months to compensate for any rise above its OPEC+ quota in January and February, the oil ministry said on Monday. Iraq is committed to voluntary cuts agreed with the OPEC+ group of oil-exporting countries and is coordinating with secondary sources to reflect the export curbs in their upcoming OPEC+ reports, the ministry said in a statement. The de facto Saudi-led Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, known collectively as OPEC+, have implemented a series of output cuts since late 2022 to support the market. A new cut for the first quarter took effect in January and earlier this month was extended to cover the second quarter. Oil has found support in 2024 from rising geopolitical tensions and Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping, although concern about economic growth has weighed. Iraq's production quota is 4 million barrels per day (bpd) under the voluntary cuts. The secondary sources, which provide data on OPEC+ members' production, reported Iraq's production at 4.2 million bpd in February. Iraq's oil exports averaged 3.43 million bpd in February, the oil ministry said earlier this month. The Reuters Power Up newsletter provides everything you need to know about the global energy industry. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iraq-curb-oil-exports-compensate-overproduction-2024-03-18/
2024-03-18 12:10
Reuters poll graphic on SNB policy rate forecasts - BENGALURU, March 18 (Reuters) - The Swiss National Bank will wait until at least June before cutting interest rates, according to a strong majority of economists polled by Reuters, who said it would make shallower cuts this year than peers. The SNB may choose to wait on the sidelines until the U.S. Federal Reserve and European Central Bank start cutting interest rates, widely expected in June, to prevent further weakness in the Swiss franc. A declining franc poses a risk of a flare-up in inflation which eased to a near 2-1/2 year low of 1.2% in February and has been within the central bank's target of 0%-2% since May 2023. In December, the SNB said it was no longer focusing on foreign currency sales to prop up the franc as a measure to dampen imported inflation, with SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan saying this was no longer necessary. Jordan recently announced his decision to step down in September. The franc has slid around 3.5% so far this year and some say unexpectedly cutting rates ahead of other major central banks could cause it to weaken further. A near 80% majority, 25 of 32 economists in the March 13-18 Reuters poll, predicted the SNB would hold the policy rate unchanged at 1.75% - the lowest among G10 nation central banks other than the Bank of Japan - on March 21. "There are several reasons for a June rate cut and keeping rates on hold in March. The Swiss franc has depreciated a bit against the dollar and the euro since the beginning of the year ... They (the SNB) are not sure whether there are no second-round effects," said Alessandro Bee, economist at UBS. The survey result was in line with market pricing for the first rate cut, which only recently changed to June from March, following a similar move earlier this year on expectations for the first Fed and ECB rate cuts. However, there was no clear consensus among economists around the exact timing of the first cut. While 14 predicted it to come in June, 11 expected the first reduction in the third quarter or later. Only seven said the SNB would cut on Thursday. "They will be cautious to cut rates in a situation where they cannot be sure whether the ECB and the Fed are going to follow," said UBS's Bee. "There is still the possibility the Fed and the ECB keep rates on hold for longer." But Switzerland also has a very low inflation rate, much lower than in the U.S. or the euro zone. "We have been forecasting for a long time that inflation would fall to close to 1% at the start of this year and that the SNB would cut rates in March. And with our non-consensus inflation forecast having been largely realised, we think it is likely that the SNB will proceed with a rate cut (on March 21)," wrote Adrian Prettejohn, Europe economist at Capital Economics. The SNB will cut interest rates by a cumulative 50 basis points to 1.25% this year, survey medians showed. If realised, that would be shallower than the 75 to 100 basis points of rate reductions expected from the Fed and ECB. Inflation was expected to average 1.5% this year, the Reuters poll found, before easing to 1.3% in 2025 and 2026. "We hold our SNB call for a longer pause followed by a later/slower cutting cycle than the ECB," noted Chiara Angeloni, Europe economist at Bank of America. "Should domestic inflation turn out stronger than the SNB thinks...we would expect the SNB to deliver tighter financial conditions via FX appreciation - hence the foreign assets' balance sheet unwind - instead of higher rates." When asked about the bigger risk around the magnitude of rate cuts this year, a slim majority of economists, 10 of 18, said it could be less than they expected and eight said it could be more. (For other stories from the Reuters global economic poll:) Get a look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets with the Morning Bid U.S. newsletter. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/snb-wait-until-least-june-before-cutting-rates-modestly-2024-03-18/
2024-03-18 11:45
March 18 (Reuters) - Tellurian (TELL.A) , opens new tab said on Monday it was looking at all options, including a potential sale, and that CEO Octavio Simoes had stepped down from his role, amid the liquefied natural gas developer's efforts to keep its Driftwood export project alive. The company earlier this year had hired Lazard to explore a sale of its Haynesville upstream business in East Texas and Louisiana as part of efforts to raise capital for the Driftwood project. Lazard will now also focus on alternative debt and equity financing, the sale of equity interests in Driftwood or Tellurian, a potential sale of the company, and assisting in securing commercial partners, Tellurian said on Monday. Simoes, who resigned on March 15, has transitioned to an advisory role and will report to the company's president. He will retire in June. The company had previously said it would not renew or extend his employment term beyond June 5. Samik Mukherjee, executive vice president of Driftwood Assets, has been appointed as president of Tellurian Investments. He will be in charge of development of all Tellurian’s assets, including upstream, Driftwood LNG and pipeline. The change is the latest top level reshuffle at Tellurian after it ousted chairman and co-founder Charif Souki late last year. The company said it could sell up to $366.1 million shares from time to time through distribution agency Virtu Americas. (This story has been refiled to correct typo to say "He", not "Hew", in paragraph 4) The Reuters Daily Briefing newsletter provides all the news you need to start your day. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/tellurian-ceo-steps-down-2024-03-18/
2024-03-18 11:36
MOSCOW, March 18 (Reuters) - Russia will increase oil exports through its western ports in March by almost 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) against the monthly plan to 2.15 million bpd, and market participants expect a further increase in exports amid ongoing drone attacks on Russian refineries. On a daily basis shipments will increase by 10% compared to the initial plan for March, Reuters calculations showed. Russian oil refineries have been suffering from a series of drone attacks from Ukraine including most recent attacks on Rosneft refineries over the weekend. The supply of Urals in the Baltic in March this month will increase due to the appearance of two additional cargoes from Rosneft and Tatneft, according to Reuters sources. In Novorossiisk additional tanker positions were added by Rosneft and Lukoil, the sources said. Market participants believe that the growth in Russia's oil exports may continue. "Given the events of the weekend, there may be more additional cargoes," one of the sources said. On Saturday morning, a fire broke out at the Rosneft-owned Syzran oil refinery after a drone attack. On Sunday, due to a drone attack, a fire occurred at a private Slavyansky oil refinery in the Krasnodar region. Last week, Rosneft's Ryazan oil refinery of Rosneft and Lukoil's Nizhny Novgorod oil refinery suffered from drone attacks. Get a look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets with the Morning Bid U.S. newsletter. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/russian-oil-exports-its-western-ports-revised-up-10-march-amid-refinery-outage-2024-03-18/
2024-03-18 11:32
LONDON, March 18 (Reuters) - Hedge funds piled into bank and financials stocks at the fastest pace in a year, Goldman Sachs said in a note, just in time to catch highs seen European and U.S. banking indices. Financial stocks in North America, Europe, and emerging-market Asia were among the most sought-after stock sectors for the second week running last week, according to the note tracking hedge fund trades for the week ending Friday. The STOXX Europe 600 banks index (.SX7P) has risen by 8.3% so far this year and is now around its highest since 2019. The Dow Jones banking index (.DJUSBK) , opens new tab has risen by 6.6% since the start of the year. Hedge funds took long positions in banks and capital markets companies, ditching short bets. Consumer finance firms saw hedge funds add long positions. A short reflects an expectation that an asset price will fall. Hedge funds were still net short insurance companies, the note said. Bank stocks dropped sharply in March last year after the failure of U.S. regional lender Silicon Valley Bank. In that month, Deutsche Bank shares lost more than a fifth of their value and the European banking index logged its worst monthly performance since the pandemic. Share prices in European and U.S. banks have since rocketed, led by a 60% gain for UBS (UBSG.S) , opens new tab and nearly 70% for UniCredit (CRDI.MI) , opens new tab and Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE) , opens new tab. The Goldman Sachs prime brokerage desk, which serves hedge funds, says their clients are long, but hold very few positions in financial companies relative to other global stocks. Get a look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets with the Morning Bid U.S. newsletter. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/hedge-flow-hedge-funds-buy-largest-bulk-bank-stocks-year-goldman-says-2024-03-18/
2024-03-18 11:30
NAPERVILLE, Illinois, March 17 (Reuters) - Speculators covered short positions in Chicago corn and soybeans last week, chipping away at their still-massive bearish bets as futures continued climbing off multi-year lows. In the week ended on March 12, money managers cut their net short position in CBOT soybean futures and options to 155,137 contracts from a record 171,999 in the prior week, predominantly on short covering. This was the first week with funds as net bean buyers in 17 weeks, ending a record-long selling stretch. Most-active CBOT soybean futures during the week jumped 4% and were up 6% from a Feb. 29 low, which was the lowest price since November 2020. Most-active corn futures , as of March 12, also rose 9% from touching their lowest since November 2020 late last month. Corn was up 3.6% in the week ended on March 12, and money managers were heavily axing gross short positions for the second time in three weeks. Their net short fell to 255,928 futures and options contracts from 296,795 a week earlier. The managed money corn net short hit a record 340,732 futures and options contracts on Feb. 20, though recent short covering put funds’ March 12 position even with the same date in 2019, which featured a record net short at the time. Six weeks later, the pre-2024 record short was reached. A big year-on-year jump in global corn and soybean supplies slashed prices in recent months and pushed speculators into record short bets, but some of that selling may have been overdone, especially with questionable weather in Brazil and the U.S. planting season still to come. CBOT wheat futures made contract lows last Monday, though they were down just fractionally during the week ended on March 12. But money managers sold more than 13,000 futures and options contracts that week, raising their net short to 78,870 contracts, their most bearish view since December. China’s recent cancellations and postponements of U.S. and Australian wheat cargoes have been a weight on the wheat market, as have heavy supplies of Russian wheat. Futures fell 3.5% between Wednesday and Friday but remained above the March 11 low. CBOT soybeans made six-week highs on Thursday but rose minimally between Wednesday and Friday, and corn fell 1.1% over that same period after notching five-week highs on last Tuesday. SOY PRODUCTS CBOT soybean products were on the move in the week ended on March 12 as soybean oil surged more than 6%. Money managers slashed their net short in soyoil to 33,410 futures and options contracts from 62,473 a week earlier, their biggest round of net buying since September 2019. Soymeal futures added nearly 3% through March 12, but money managers extended their net short to 50,935 futures and options contracts from 49,526 in the prior week. That established funds’ most bearish meal view since June 2020 and was their 15th week of the last 16 as net meal sellers. For the first time since November 2022, money managers’ soyoil views are comparably more optimistic than their soymeal ones, implying potentially bullish positioning in the CBOT oilshare. Oilshare measures soyoil’s share of value in the soy products. Soybean oil on Friday reached two-month highs, up 9% in March so far and tracking strength in rival global vegoil prices. Benchmark Malaysian palm oil futures earlier this month hit more than seven-month highs on a combination of tight supply and strong demand. Soyoil in the last three sessions added more than 3% but soymeal slid 1%. Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own. Get a look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets with the Morning Bid U.S. newsletter. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/funds-cover-cbot-soy-corn-shorts-snapping-bean-selling-streak-2024-03-18/
