2024-03-15 05:32

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland European traders may do well to brace themselves for a sell-off on Friday, with equity markets sinking around Asia as investors adjust to the prospect of later and fewer Fed rate cuts this year. Declines in markets like Hong Kong (.HSI) , opens new tab and South Korea (.KS11) , opens new tab of more than 1% have been much steeper than the 0.3% slips across Wall Street indexes on Thursday, although tech shares, which are sensitive to rates expectations, remained at the centre of all those losses. On Japan's Nikkei (.N225) , opens new tab, for example, tech was the only sector to decline, but the heavy weighting of its chip-sector giants was enough to pull the index to a 0.3% loss. Of course most of these markets - in Asia, Europe and the U.S. - have room to fall, with many sitting just below all-time highs. There's little to distract from speculation about Fed cut timing during the European day, with CPI readings in places like France and Italy the most notable items on the docket. It was heated U.S. producer price numbers overnight, following fast on the heels of consensus-topping consumer inflation, that eroded expectations of a June Fed rate cut. The Fed's dot plot at the conclusion of its policy meeting next Wednesday is now crucial for guessing just how cautious Chair Jay Powell and his team will be. The Bank of England also sets policy next week, on Thursday, as does the Swiss National Bank. But arguably the main monetary policy event will be the Bank of Japan's two-day gathering, ending Tuesday, with speculation running high for an exit to at least some part of its ultra-easy stimulus. A hike out of negative rates could even be sealed when Rengo, Japan's largest trade union, announces the results of its annual wage negotiations with workers early in the European day today, with all signs so far pointing to bumper pay increases. Key developments that could influence markets on Friday: -Japan wage negotiation announcement -France, Italy final CPIs (Feb) -ECB chief economist Philip Lane speaks at Imperial College Business School in London Get a look at the day ahead in European and global markets with the Morning Bid Europe newsletter. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/global-markets-view-europe-2024-03-15/

2024-03-15 05:22

SINGAPORE, March 15 (Reuters) - Bitcoin eased to a one-week low in volatile trade on Friday, as investors took profit from its run to a record high and as another upside surprise on U.S. inflation dimmed prospects of early rate cuts there and dented demand for riskier assets. Bitcoin fell more than 5% in the Asian session to bottom at $66,629.96, before paring some of its losses to last trade 3.5% lower. The choppy moves in the world's largest cryptocurrency came a day after its charge to a high of $73,803.25, setting a new record for a fourth straight day. "Bitcoin has an established history of getting volatile and ruthless after hitting (a) record high," said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index. "And not only did it recently hit a new high, but it looks like the (Federal Reserve) won't be as dovish as traders had hoped." A slew of data out on Thursday showed that while U.S. retail sales rebounded less than expected in February, producer prices increased more than expected. The releases came on the heels of U.S. consumer price data out earlier in the week that pointed to still-sticky inflationary pressures. Markets reacted by paring the chances of a Fed easing cycle beginning in June, with futures now pointing to a roughly 60% chance of a rate cut that month, down from roughly 74% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool. A higher-for-longer rates scenario, particularly in the United States, is typically bad for risk-sensitive assets such as crypto. Still, bitcoin remains nearly 60% higher for the year to date, helped by a crypto frenzy driven by flows into U.S. spot exchange-traded crypto products and as traders remain broadly focused on the prospect of global interest rates being lower by the year-end. In a show of optimism over bitcoin's bull run, software firm MicroStrategy MSTR.O said it is planning to raise capital through a convertible bond offering to buy bitcoin for the second time in less than 10 days. The company had on March 5 announced a $600 million private offering in convertible notes, as it looks to increase its exposure to the booming digital asset. Some experts say the news also contributed to bitcoin's volatile moves on Friday. "Unlike traditional stock markets, the crypto market lacks regulations that limit the impact of influential individuals or entities with concentrated holdings," said Joshua Chu, chief risk officer at Invess, an AI-enabled algo risk management financial engineering company. "This absence allows whales to make substantial trades that can trigger cascading effects and rapid price fluctuations, leading to heightened volatility." Elsewhere, ether , the second-largest cryptocurrency, similarly touched a one-week low, and was last down more than 4% to $3,670. Keep up with the latest medical breakthroughs and healthcare trends with the Reuters Health Rounds newsletter. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/volatile-bitcoin-falls-record-high-crypto-frenzy-hits-pause-2024-03-15/

2024-03-15 04:30

SINGAPORE, March 15 (Reuters) - The oil tanker NS Century, which is under sanction by the United States, arrived at the Chinese port of Qingdao late on Thursday to discharge its cargo of Russian crude oil, LSEG shipping data showed. The Russian-flagged tanker, operated by Russian shipping group Sovcomflot's (SCF) (FLOT.MM) , opens new tab Dubai-based subsidiary SCF MGMT, is carrying about 700,000 barrels of Russian Sokol crude. It is the fourth U.S.-sanctioned tanker to dock at Chinese ports this month to clear a backlog of Russian Sokol crude stored on ships. However, the previous ships - Liteyny Prospect, Krymsk and Nellis - had docked during temporary waivers of sanctions from U.S. measures related to the Ukraine war. Officials at Qingdao port did not immediately respond to a request for comment. China's General Administration of Customs could not immediately be reached for comment. On Nov. 16, the U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Asset Control (OFAC) imposed sanctions on three tankers, including NS Century, for violating a $60-per-barrel price cap on Russian crude oil exports. It also issued , opens new tab general licences allowing the offloading of crude oil, or other cargoes, from the three vessels until Feb. 14. United Arab Emirates-based Gallion Navigation Incorporated is the registered owner of the NS Century, according to OFAC. Gallion could not immediately be reached for comment. The G7-led price cap on Russian crude, imposed in December 2022, aims to reduce how much money Russia has available for its war in Ukraine by allowing Western-supplied insurance and other services only on cargoes priced below $60 a barrel. Beijing has said that it opposes unilateral sanctions and that China's normal trade deserves respect and protection. China has become the top lifter of light sweet Sokol crude after shipments to India fell following payment and shipping issues because of to sanctions. Sokol oil is a low-sulphur, light grade exported from the De Kastri terminal on Russia's Sakhalin island by Sakhalin-1 LLC, controlled by oil giant Rosneft (ROSN.MM) , opens new tab. The Reuters Power Up newsletter provides everything you need to know about the global energy industry. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/sanctioned-tanker-ns-century-reaches-china-port-discharge-russian-oil-2024-03-15/

2024-03-15 04:29

Gold down 0.8% for the week Traders price in about 59% chance of June rate cut Silver, platinum, palladium up weekly at 4%, 3%, 6% respectively March 15 (Reuters) - Gold prices held steady on Friday as they looked set to log their first weekly drop in four as investors lowered expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut after data over the week showed bubbling price pressures. Spot gold was little changed at $2,159.99 per ounce, as of 2:42 p.m. EDT (1842 GMT). Bullion lost 0.8% for the week, in its first weekly decline since mid-February after hitting a record high of $2,194.99 last week. U.S. gold futures settled 0.3% lower at $2,161.5. Data this week showed U.S. consumer prices increased above expectations in February and producer prices also showed some stickiness in inflation. "Gold has already priced in whatever positive boost it would get from expectations that interest rates are going down... if inflation starts to kick higher again, it means that policymakers are going to have to keep monetary policy more restrictive for longer," said Everett Millman, chief market analyst at Gainesville Coins. "Although gold does not particularly like a high interest rate environment, if the reasons for interest rates to stay that high is because inflation is running hot... that naturally means people will again turn to gold," Millman added. Higher-than-expected inflation maintains pressure on the Fed to keep interest rates elevated, weighing on gold. The non-yield-bearing precious metal is also used as a hedge against inflation. Traders continue to bet on interest rate cuts in June, although the chances of rates easing in June are seen at 59%, compared with 72% before the CPI data, the CME FedWatch Tool , opens new tab showed. The U.S. dollar index (.DXY) , opens new tab headed for its largest weekly gain since mid-January, making gold more expensive for overseas buyers. "We increase our average gold price forecast for 2024 from $2,090/toz to $2,180/toz, targeting a move to $2,300/toz by year-end," Goldman Sachs wrote in a note. Spot platinum rose 1.5% to $940.95 per ounce, palladium gained 1.2% to $1,082.61, while silver was up 1.7% at $25.25. Get a look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets with the Morning Bid U.S. newsletter. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/golds-three-week-winning-streak-under-pressure-amid-us-inflation-heat-2024-03-15/

2024-03-15 04:09

TOKYO, March 15 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan will ditch its negative interest rate policy in April, according to just under two-thirds of economists polled by Reuters, although a growing minority now expect it to happen this month compared to only a few surveyed in February. Just in the last few days, some have leaned toward an imminent first step toward departing a decades-long stimulus programme, driven by news of strong pay hikes at big firms and hawkish comments from BOJ policymakers on the inflation target. The central bank has long contended robust wage growth was a prerequisite for rolling back its accommodative settings. An end to negative interest rates, which have been in place since 2016, would mark a landmark shift in policy and would be Japan's first interest rate hike since 2007, just before the global financial crisis. Twelve of 34 economists, or 35%, picked the BOJ's two-day meeting concluding on Tuesday for an end to negative rates, the March 11-14 poll showed. That is up from 7%, or just two of 30 respondents, in February's survey. April was still the top pick, with 21 of 34, or just under two-thirds of economists in the poll. The BOJ would have more information to make a decision in April, including the business confidence level and outlook through its "tankan" report and local economy trends at a branch managers' meeting, said Kohei Okazaki, a senior economist at Nomura Securities. "In addition, the April meeting will be convenient in that the quarterly outlook report will be published, making it easier to hold policy changes accountable." But the number of forecasters who say a change is imminent is growing. "Postponing the lifting of negative interest rates could backfire," said Satsuki Kimura, economist at Meiji Yasuda Research Institute, which previously picked April. A string of weak economic indicators in the U.S. and growing speculation a rate cut is on the way from the Federal Reserve could strengthen the yen and weaken stocks, which would make it more difficult for the BOJ to make an opposite move, she said. An overwhelming majority of 52 economists who provided end-quarter views for the BOJ's deposit rate said -0.1% or 0.0% at the end of the January-March period. Four forecast it to have risen to 0.1%, with 13 saying so for the end of April-June. Only one firm - JP Morgan - chose months outside March or April for ending negative interest rates. A strong 80% majority of economists in the poll, 24 of 30, expect the central bank to end yield curve control (YCC) - a policy that guides the 10-year-bond yield around 0% with a loose cap of 1% - either this month or next. That easily outstripped the rest who just expect it to be modified. These results were roughly in line with the February poll. Of those 26 economists who predicted YCC's demise in total, 31% selected March and 62% picked April. Nearly all of the respondents said an end to negative rates would happen simultaneously in that respective month. Aside from March and April, 3% picked July while another 3% went for September. Japan's Jiji news agency reported last week the BOJ is considering replacing YCC with a new quantitative framework that will show in advance the amount of bonds it will buy in the future. The BOJ will likely offer numerical guidance on the amount of government bonds it will buy upon ending YCC and negative interest rates, sources have told Reuters. (For other stories from the Reuters global economic poll:) The Reuters Daily Briefing newsletter provides all the news you need to start your day. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/boj-end-negative-rates-april-high-chance-march-analysts-say-2024-03-15/

2024-03-15 03:57

March 15 (Reuters) - First responders and clean-up crews fanned out across rural Indiana and Ohio on Friday after one or more tornadoes ripped through the area, killing three people and injuring dozens more as it leveled homes and businesses. Three deaths were reported in Logan County, Ohio, after at least one tornado touched down and moved east at about 7:45 p.m. on Thursday, Sheriff Randall Dodds said in a statement. Earlier reports of three deaths in Indiana later proved to be false. The twister was one of seven tornadoes in Indiana and Ohio reported to the National Weather Service on Thursday night and early Friday. An additional tornado was reported in northern Texas, and a twister may have also caused damage in a northern Kentucky town. On Friday, first responders were checking for victims in the Logan County communities of Lakeview, Midway and Orchard Island, Dobbs said during a news conference on Friday morning. The search was initially hampered by downed powerlines, gas leaks and a mass of destruction. "We are going to recheck those areas again. There are many places back there that are collapsed," Dodds said, adding that teams were out working on a grid system. As daylight broke, aerial footage posted on social media revealed widespread destruction in Lakeview, a community of 1,100 residents about 70 miles (113 kilometers) northwest of Columbus, Ohio. It showed mobile homes ripped from their foundations, debris covering roadways and large trees on their side. In Winchester, a town of about 5,000 people in eastern Indiana, 38 people were injured, three critically, when an apparent tornado rolled through on Thursday evening, the mayor said. "Nobody has passed away, so for as much destruction ... very lucky. There are houses that are leveled," Mayor Bob McCoy said during a news briefing, noting that 22 houses were destroyed and more than 100 badly damaged. "I praise the Lord for this one because this could have been really bad." The National Weather Service earlier said it could not confirm that a tornado had touched down in Winchester, but that it was likely judging by the damage and images taken by people on the ground. McCoy said firefighters and volunteer crews were cleaning up and assessing the damage on Friday morning as most of the town was without power. NBC News earlier reported three deaths in a trailer home park in Winchester, citing state police as a source, but authorities later said that there were no reported deaths in the town. Several small towns near Winchester also suffered heavy damage from apparent tornadoes. A twister may have also touched down in Milton, an Ohio River town in northern Kentucky, where local news reported that several homes were damaged. Get weekly news and analysis on the U.S. elections and how it matters to the world with the newsletter On the Campaign Trail. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/three-dead-after-likely-tornado-rips-through-indiana-town-nbc-says-2024-03-15/