2024-03-14 11:26

IEA raises 2024 oil demand growth forecast by 110,000 bpd Houthi attacks on shipping lead to longer routes Economic headwinds still seen putting damper on growth Sees 2024 oil balance in slight deficit from previous surplus LONDON, March 14 (Reuters) - The International Energy Agency on Thursday raised its view on 2024 oil demand growth for a fourth time since November as Houthi attacks disrupt Red Sea shipping, though it remains far less bullish than producer group OPEC. The Organization of the Petroleum-Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the IEA, which represents industrialised countries, have clashed in recent years over issues such as the long-term oil demand outlook and the need for investment in new supply. World oil demand will rise by 1.3 million bpd in 2024, the IEA said in its latest report, up 110,000 bpd from last month. It forecast a slight supply deficit this year after OPEC+ members extended cuts, from a surplus previously. Brent crude oil rose as much as 80 cents a barrel towards $85 after the IEA report was released, touching its highest since November. "Quite a bullish report, with upward revisions on demand growth, and lower supply growth estimates," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. The IEA had initially forecast 2024 demand growth of 860,000 bpd in June 2023. Demand rose by 2.3 million bpd last year. "The slowdown in growth, already apparent in recent data, means that oil consumption reverts towards its historical trend after several years of volatility from the post-pandemic rebound," the IEA said. OPEC on Tuesday kept its demand growth forecast unchanged at 2.25 million bpd, meaning the views of OPEC and IEA remain nearly 1 million bpd apart, representing almost 1% of daily world demand. Dovish signals from central banks indicated a path out of economic doldrums, the IEA said, but subdued economic data in China remains a concern. Disruptions to shipping in the Red Sea region have forced more trade on to the longer route around the Cape of Good Hope, pushing up the number of barrels at sea to nearly 1.9 billion as of the end of February, the IEA said. Longer routes boosted fuel demand and the loading of ships with fuel, or bunkering, in Singapore reached all-time highs. ECONOMIC HEADWINDS The IEA still thinks the cloudy economic outlook will weigh on demand, the agency noted, even as the challenges to shipping provide a short-term boost. Growth will continue to be heavily skewed towards non-OECD countries, even as China's dominance gradually fades, the IEA said. It expects China's demand growth to slow to 620,000 bpd from 1.7 million bpd in 2023. On the supply side, the IEA said growth from non-OPEC+ countries would continue to significantly eclipse oil demand expansion in 2024, although extended cuts by some OPEC+ members had tightened the balance. Some OPEC+ members earlier this month extended voluntary cuts made in the first quarter until the end of June. The IEA said it was treating those cuts as being in place for the whole year, unwinding them only once OPEC+ confirms the move. "On that basis, our balance for the year shifts from a surplus to a slight deficit, but oil tanks may get some relief as the massive volumes of oil on water reach their final destination," the agency said. The Reuters Power Up newsletter provides everything you need to know about the global energy industry. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/iea-sees-economic-headwinds-putting-damper-supply-growth-2024-03-14/

2024-03-14 11:22

MUMBAI, March 14 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee ended marginally higher on Thursday tracking rangebound price action across most of its Asian peers, while dollar-rupee forward premiums maintained their downtrend on an uptick in U.S. bond yields. The rupee closed at 82.8175, slightly stronger from its close at 82.8625 in the previous session. The dollar index inched higher to 102.84 while most Asian currencies were steady save for the Korean won which weakened by 0.2%. The rupee weakened to an intra-day low of 82.8875 earlier in the session but dollar sales from exporters and a large foreign bank in the latter half helped it recover, a foreign exchange trader at a state-run bank said. The dollar-rupee may soon see "a bearish leg" as the pair may encounter resistance near the 82.90-83.00 zone and consequently trend lower, Amit Pabari, managing director at FX advisory firm CR Forex said. Meanwhile, dollar-rupee forward premiums slipped for the third consecutive day, with the 1-year implied yield down 1 basis points (bps) at 1.64%. The 1-year implied yield has fallen 8 bps over the last three trading sessions. An uptick in U.S. bond yields pressured far forwards on Thursday alongside some tepidness in near forward premiums. The 1-year U.S. Treasury yield was up 2 basis points in Asia hours at 5.05%. The 10-year Treasury yield also inched up to 4.20%. U.S. bond yields have ticked higher after data signalled that inflation in the world's largest economy may prove to be stubborn, prompting investors to speculate that the Federal Reserve may further delay rate cuts. Investors await the release of U.S. retail sales and initial jobless claims data due later in the day. Retail sales are expected to have risen 0.8% month-on-month in February after contracting 0.8% in the previous month, according to economists polled by Reuters. Keep up with the latest medical breakthroughs and healthcare trends with the Reuters Health Rounds newsletter. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/rupee-ends-slightly-higher-forward-premiums-maintain-downtrend-2024-03-14/

2024-03-14 11:16

This content was produced in Russia, where the law restricts coverage of Russian military operations in Ukraine MOSCOW, March 14 (Reuters) - Russia's seaborne oil product exports fell 1.5% in February from the previous month to 9.943 million metric tons due to unplanned maintenance at refineries, data from industry sources and Reuters calculations showed. Several large Russian refineries were hit by drone attacks and fires in January and February, including Rosneft's Tuapse refinery and Novatek's (NVTK.MM) , opens new tab complex at the Baltic port of Ust-Luga. Novatek resumed gas condensate processing at the Ust-Luga complex on Feb. 11. Total oil product exports via the Baltic ports of Primorsk, Vysotsk, St. Petersburg and Ust-Luga last month rose 11.4% from January to 5.886 million tons, data from market sources showed. Fuel exports via Russia's Black Sea and Azov Sea ports fell in February by 18.8% from the previous month to 3.265 million tons, mainly because of a lack of oil product supplies from the Tuapse refinery and also due to stormy weather in region. Oil products export supplies from Russia's Arctic ports of Murmansk and Arkhangelsk fell last month by 34% from January to 113,900 tons. Fuel export loadings at Russia's Far East ports rose by 8.8% in February month-on-month to 678,100 metric tons, data from sources and Reuters calculations showed. In March, Russia's Ryazan oil refinery (C}RO7309414471) , opens new tab, controlled by Rosneft, was set ablaze after a drone attack. A fire also broke out after a Ukrainian drone attack at the Norsi refinery owned by Lukoil (LKOH.MM) , opens new tab, which could lead to a further decrease of oil products exports. Russia has also imposed a six-month ban on gasoline exports from March 1 to keep domestic prices stable. Last year, Russia announced a voluntary reduction in crude oil and fuel exports of 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) and 200,000 bpd respectively from the average for May-June 2023 to support energy markets. Get a look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets with the Morning Bid U.S. newsletter. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/russias-seaborne-oil-product-exports-fell-february-calculations-show-2024-03-14/

2024-03-14 11:07

LONDON, March 14 (Reuters) - The pound rose slightly on Thursday as investors waited for U.S. economic data later in the day and looked ahead to the Bank of England's interest rate decision next week. Sterling was last up 0.12% at $1.2813, taking its gains this year to 0.7%. The euro was down 0.2% against the pound at 85.38 pence. The pound has been the only major currency to rise against the dollar in 2024 as investors have bet that the Bank of England will keep interest rates higher for longer than its peers. Expectations for higher rates tend to boost a country's bond yields relative to other markets, making the securities look more attractive and supporting the domestic currency. Britain's housing market picked up in February, according to data on Thursday, with a gauge of new buyer inquiries notching the joint-strongest reading since February 2022. GDP figures on Wednesday showed that Britain's economy grew 0.2% in January from a month earlier, after the United Kingdom slipped into a recession in late 2023. Investors will watch closely at 1230 GMT when data on U.S. producer inflation, retail sales and weekly jobless claims is due out. The Bank of England is widely expected to keep rates on hold at 5.25% next Thursday. Market pricing shows traders think the BoE is most likely to cut borrowing costs in August, later than the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve, which are expected to go in June. "The Bank of England appears to be in less of a rush than the ECB for sure and also the Fed," said Francesco Pesole, FX strategist at ING. "Markets have kind of cemented their view that they will cut in August. Unless we see big deviations in the data I think they'll keep pricing that in." Pesole said the release of the Bank of England's inflation attitudes survey tomorrow could shift rate cut expectations and sterling, as could the consumer inflation data due on Wednesday next week. Keep up with the latest medical breakthroughs and healthcare trends with the Reuters Health Rounds newsletter. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/sterling-inches-higher-investors-look-towards-boe-2024-03-14/

2024-03-14 11:06

March 14 (Reuters) - Robinhood Markets (HOOD.O) , opens new tab shares climbed nearly 9% on Thursday after the brokerage reported strong growth in assets under custody for the month of February, signaling continued boost from a comeback in cryptocurrency and stock trading. Assets under custody (AUC) grew 16% month-over-month to $118.7 billion at the end of February, the company's second consecutive month of breaching the $100 billion mark. The Menlo Park, California-based company had reported $102.6 billion in AUC for the fourth-quarter ended Dec. 31, its highest since the meme stock trading frenzy in 2021. Bernstein on Thursday began coverage on Robinhood with an "outperform" rating on expectation that the company's cryptocurrency revenue would grow nine-fold in 2025, and added that its "full suite crypto offering within a regulated broker platform is in a sweet spot." Bernstein expects total market value of the cryptocurrency industry to reach $7.5 trillion in 2025 from about $2.6 trillion currently. The brokerage said Robinhood had an advantage over other crypto exchanges such as Coinbase (COIN.O) , opens new tab due to competitive fees, and as traditional brokers stay away from offering crypto trading services. In mid-February, Robinhood reported a surprise quarterly profit and said it aims to deliver 'profitable growth' in 2024. Robinhood has benefited from the increased activity from retail traders - its main client base - as bitcoin surpassed the record high of 2021 and climbed above $73,000, and the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab hit a series of all-time highs this year. It has been contending with a decline in active users on its platform in recent quarters, but has managed to grow revenue per customer. Robinhood shares hit a fresh 2-year high on Thursday, but remain well below their July 2021 IPO price of $38. The Technology Roundup newsletter brings the latest news and trends straight to your inbox. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/technology/robinhood-jumps-after-robust-growth-assets-under-custody-february-2024-03-14/

2024-03-14 11:05

March 14 (Reuters) - Faster and more furious wildfires and other natural disasters are sparking investors' interest in betting on how to adapt to inevitable changes to the climate, several climate-focused groups said in a report on Thursday. So-called "climate adaptation" companies are attracting increased attention from big investors, with BlackRock Investment Institute calling adaptation an emerging investment theme. Climate focused investors have long put money into projects that are intended to slow climate change by cutting emissions, such as solar power and electric vehicles. Adaptation-oriented products, by contrast, help customers and wider humanity survive deteriorating climate conditions: drought-tolerant crops, air filters, disease surveillance systems tuned to maladies that thrive in heat, wildfire spotting systems and cooling vests for warehouse workers are all examples. Adaptation has been described as a nascent opportunity for years, but investors have virtually ignored it, according to the report by the non-profit Global Adaptation and Resilience Investment Group (GARI) with support from the Bezos Earth Fund, ClimateWorks Foundation and MSCI Sustainability Institute. Rising numbers of intense wildfires, droughts, and major storms are changing that. “All those things are driving investors, just like the rest of society, to wake up to the fact that we're going to need to much more immediately adapt and build resilience to climate change,” said Jay Koh, chair of GARI and managing director of investment firm Lightsmith Group. The report lays out a process for finding companies with adaptation businesses or products, measuring how much revenue or growth comes from those lines, and assessing whether the business is achieving its climate-focused goals. As a test, the MSCI Sustainability Institute used artificial intelligence chatbots to hunt through company data and reports for signs of adaptation. It found about 11% of publicly traded companies globally had some adaptation-related business. The Reuters Daily Briefing newsletter provides all the news you need to start your day. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/sustainable-finance-reporting/climate-adaptation-investor-roadmap-points-way-through-global-warming-2024-03-14/