2024-03-13 04:03

SINGAPORE, March 13 (Reuters) - Economists have upgraded Singapore's 2024 growth forecast, according to a survey by the country's central bank published on Wednesday, with better-than-expected external growth seen as the top upside driver for the economy. The median forecast of 23 economists surveyed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore is for the economy to grow 2.4% this year, up from a forecast of 2.3% in December's survey. The trade ministry expects gross domestic product (GDP) for 2024 to be at 1.0% to 3.0%. The economists surveyed also cut their inflation forecast, with headline inflation and core inflation expected to come in between 3.0 and 3.4%. In the December survey, they had assigned the highest probability to the 3.5 to 3.9% range for headline inflation and 3.0 to 3.4% for core inflation. MAS projects core inflation to ease to an average of 2.5–3.5% for 2024. The survey was conducted in mid-February, after the government released fourth quarter GDP results for last year that were slower than first estimates. GDP rose 2.2% on a year-on-year basis in the fourth quarter, lower than an advance estimate of 2.8%. Majority of survey respondents do not expect the central bank to change monetary policy in the April 2024 review. The MAS had kept monetary policy settings on hold in January as inflation pressures continued to moderate and growth prospects improved. It also left monetary policy unchanged in April and October last year, reflecting growth concerns, having tightened policy at five consecutive reviews prior to that. The MAS has a new review schedule this year with policy announcements every quarter instead of semi-annually. Get a look at the day ahead in Asian and global markets with the Morning Bid Asia newsletter. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/economists-upgrade-singapore-2024-growth-forecast-survey-shows-2024-03-13/

2024-03-13 03:25

MUMBAI, March 13 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is likely to struggle on Wednesday after sticky U.S. inflation suggested that the Federal Reserve will wait longer to cut interest rates. An anticipated dollar outflow is further expected to dampen demand for the local currency. Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open at around 82.80 to the U.S. dollar, compared with 82.7675 in the previous session. The U.S. February core consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.4% month-on-month, topping expectations. The headline CPI increased at the same pace. "Apart from U.S. inflation, I can think of two more reasons for a push higher (on USD/INR)," a foreign exchange trader at a bank said. "The RBI (Reserve Bank of India) has put out a message that for now they will not allow further fall and you have a decent sized outflow lined up." British American Tobacco is set to offload a part of its stake in ITC, which is estimated to be worth nearly $2 billion. Meanwhile, the RBI has likely intervened to cap the rupee's rally in the last few sessions. "When this passes through, I would not be surprised if we see at least a temporary move to 82.90 and possibly higher," the trader said. Asian currencies struggled in the wake of a move higher in U.S. Treasury yields, following the higher inflation data. The two-year U.S. yield climbed to 4.60%, with investors further reducing the possibility of a Fed rate cut at the May meeting. The odds of a rate cut at next week's meeting are almost nil. "The U.S. data will add more support to those who think that the Fed can/will wait for longer before cutting rates," Kit Juckes, chief FX strategist at Societe Generale, said in a note. India's retail inflation in February, meanwhile, rose at a marginally faster-than-expected pace. KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 82.87; onshore one-month forward premium at 7.25 paise ** Dollar index at 102.90 ** Brent crude futures up 0.5% at $82.3 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.15% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors bought a net $477.2 mln worth of Indian shares on March 11 ** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $40.9mln worth of Indian bonds on March 11 The Reuters Daily Briefing newsletter provides all the news you need to start your day. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/rupee-under-pressure-anticipated-outflow-possible-fed-rate-cut-delay-2024-03-13/

2024-03-13 02:24

Global stocks index just shy of record high Tech shares weigh on US stocks US 10-year yield up for third straight session NEW YORK, March 13 (Reuters) - A gauge of global stock markets edged lower and U.S. Treasury yields rose modestly on Wednesday, as investors looked to the next round of data on inflation and consumer health for clues on the direction of Federal Reserve policy. The S&P 500 fell slightly from its record close, weighed down by weakness in the tech sector. In the prior session, stocks had shaken off a slightly hotter-than-expected reading on U.S. consumer inflation (CPI), with the benchmark S&P index also getting a lift from a surge in shares of Oracle (ORCL.N) , opens new tab after its quarterly earnings. The inflation data did little to alter expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates , opens new tab by at least 25 basis points (bps) at its June meeting, but gave a boost to U.S. Treasury yields, a trend which continued on Wednesday. "We think it's super bullish that during this period which should be a pullback is not a pullback," said Jay Hatfield, CEO at Infrastructure Capital Advisors in New York. "There's just this market where it never goes down because one day we're buying tech, the other day we're buying everything else, but it never goes down, its really very bullish action in our opinion for this time of year." Investors will get another round of inflation data in the form of the U.S. producer price index (PPI) on Thursday, along with data on consumer spending and the labor market, before next week's Fed policy meeting. On Wall Street, the rise in yields weighed on tech (.SPLRCT) , opens new tab stocks and pulled the Nasdaq lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab rose 37.83 points, or 0.10%, to 39,043.32, the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab lost 9.96 points, or 0.19%, to 5,165.31 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab lost 87.87 points, or 0.54%, to 16,177.77. Yields continued their climb after the CPI data with the benchmark U.S. 10-year notes up 3.5 basis points (bps) to 4.19%, poised for a third straight session of advances, which would mark the longest run in just over a month. The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, rose 2.9 bps to 4.6282% and was also on track for a third straight gain. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) , opens new tab fell 0.39 points, or 0.05%, to 775.32, after climbing within 0.15% of an intraday record. The STOXX 600 (.STOXX) , opens new tab index closed up 0.16%, adding to its record level, aided by retail stocks, while Europe's broad FTSEurofirst 300 index (.FTEU3) , opens new tab rose 3.83 points, or 0.19% The dollar index fell 0.12% to 102.80, with the euro up 0.21% at $1.0947 after the result of the long-awaited Operational Framework Review showed the European Central Bank wants to wean banks off free cash but will try to do so gently enough not to upset the financial system or lending. Against the Japanese yen , the dollar strengthened 0.12% to 147.82, while sterling strengthened 0.06% to $1.28. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin gained 3.10% to $73,274.85 after climbing to its third straight record at $73,678. U.S. crude settled up 2.78% at $79.72 a barrel and Brent settled at $84.03 per barrel, up 2.58% on the day, supported by a drop in U.S. crude inventories as well as a bigger-than-expected drop in U.S. gasoline stocks and potential supply disruptions after Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries. Get a look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets with the Morning Bid U.S. newsletter. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/global-markets-wrapup-1-2024-03-13/

2024-03-13 01:47

March 12 (Reuters) - CME Group (CME.O) , opens new tab plans to apply to clear U.S. Treasuries, a spokesperson said, a $26 trillion dollar market. The Financial Times reported earlier on Tuesday that CME Group would apply this year to clear U.S. Treasuries, becoming the first exchange company to publicly announce its plans to enter the world's biggest bond market. Its competitor Intercontinental Exchange's (ICE.N) , opens new tab president of fixed income and data services, Chris Edmonds, told Reuters his company is also interested in offering Treasury clearing services, saying Intercontinental Exchange "will find a way to serve the market". CME operates CME Clearing, which offers clearing and settlement services for exchange-traded contracts and over-the-counter derivatives transactions. The exchange operator also offers global benchmark products across major asset classes, including futures and options. Get a look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets with the Morning Bid U.S. newsletter. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/cme-group-bids-enter-us-treasuries-clearing-business-financial-times-reports-2024-03-12/

2024-03-13 00:36

API data shows drop in U.S. oil and fuel stocks, sources say Russian refineries attacked by Ukraine; Rosneft plant damaged OPEC remains upbeat on oil demand growth U.S. rate cut hopes have not been derailed by inflation data LONDON, March 13 (Reuters) - Oil prices rose about 2% on Wednesday, supported by potential supply disruption after Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries, signs of strong demand and hopes that the Federal Reserve might start cutting interest rates soon despite sticky U.S. inflation. Ukraine launched a sweeping drone attack on Russian regions on Wednesday, causing a fire at Rosneft's biggest oil refinery in what President Vladimir Putin said was an attempt to disrupt Russia's presidential election. "The sudden but understandable brightening of (oil price) sentiment has been triggered by the continuous strikes on Russian refiners," said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM. Brent crude futures for May rose $1.52, or 1.9%, to $83.44 a barrel by 1300 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude for April gained $1.62, or 2.1%, to $79.18. Despite the rally, Brent has traded in a narrow range above $80 for more than a month, briefly rising above $84 in that time. Also adding support, Varga said, was Tuesday's supply report from the American Petroleum Institute. In an indication of healthy demand, U.S. crude oil and fuel inventories fell last week according to sources citing the API report ahead of Wednesday's official U.S. inventory figures. In an earlier sign of strong demand, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Tuesday stuck to its forecast for oil demand growth of 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, higher than many other forecasts. The International Energy Agency, which expects demand growth to be much lower, updates its forecasts on Thursday. Oil and the wider financial markets also found support from sentiment that slightly hotter than expected U.S. inflation will not derail interest rate cuts by the middle of the year. Lower rates support oil demand. "The risk environment has largely stayed unfazed, riding on the firm belief that current market pricing for a rate cut only in June will do the job," said IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong. In a note to clients, Capital Economics analysts said they still forecast the Fed to start easing policy "around June". The Reuters Power Up newsletter provides everything you need to know about the global energy industry. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-up-strong-us-demand-fed-signals-focus-2024-03-13/

2024-03-12 23:19

TOKYO, March 13 (Reuters) - Kairos, a small, solid-fuel rocket made by Japan's Space One, exploded just seconds into its inaugural launch on Wednesday as the firm tried to become the first Japanese company to put a satellite in orbit. The setback for Space One and the rocket industry in Japan comes as the government and investors ramp up support for the sector amid a national security buildup and skyrocketing demand for commercial satellites. The 18-metre (59 ft) rocket exploded five seconds after lifting off, leaving behind a large cloud of smoke, a fire, fragments of the rocket and sprays of firefighting water near the launch pad on the tip of mountainous Kii peninsula in western Japan, visible on local media livestreams. "The rocket terminated the flight after judging that the achievement of its mission would be difficult," company president Masakazu Toyoda said. Space One did not specify what triggered self-destruction after the first-stage engine ignited - or when the company would launch the next Kairos - only pledging an investigation into the explosion. The company said that the launch is highly automated, requiring only about a dozen ground staff, and that the rocket self-destructs when it detects errors in its flight path, speed or control system that could cause a crash that endangers people on the ground. "We don't use the world 'failure', because each trial brings us ... new data and experience for another challenge," Toyoda told a news conference. There were no injuries near the launch pad, and the fire has been extinguished, Shuhei Kishimoto, governor of Wakayama prefecture, told reporters. Kairos carried an experimental government satellite that can temporarily replace intelligence satellites in orbit if they fall offline. Space One had planned the launch for Saturday but postponed it after a ship entered the nearby restricted sea area. 'SPACE COURIER SERVICES' Although Japan is a relatively small player in the space race, the nation's rocket developers are scrambling to build cheaper vehicles to capture booming demand for satellite launches from its government and from global clients. Tokyo-based Space One was established in 2018 by a consortium of Japanese companies: Canon Electronics (7739.T) , opens new tab, the aerospace engineering unit of IHI (7013.T) , opens new tab, construction firm Shimizu (1803.T) , opens new tab and the state-backed Development Bank of Japan. Two of Japan's biggest banks, Mitsubishi UFJ (8306.T) , opens new tab and Mizuho (8411.T) , opens new tab, also own minority stakes. Shares in Canon Electronics fell as much as 13%, while IHI shares were down as much as 2% after Wednesday's failed launch. Space One wants to offer "space courier services" to domestic and international clients, aiming to launch 20 rockets a year by the late 2020s, Toyoda has said. Although the company delayed Kairos' inaugural launch window four times, it said orders for its second and third planned trips have been filled, including by an overseas customer. Kairos is composed of three stages of solid-fuel engines and a liquid-fuel post-boost stage engine, attempting to carry payloads of up to 250 kg to low-Earth orbit. Space One does not disclose Kairos' launch costs, but company executive Kozo Abe said it is "competitive enough" against American rival Rocket Lab (RKLB.O) , opens new tab. Rocket Lab has launched more than 40 Electron small rockets from New Zealand since 2017 at roughly $7 million per flight. Several Japanese companies have used Electron for their missions, including radar satellite makers iQPS (5595.T) , opens new tab and Synspective, and orbital debris-removal startup Astroscale. REVITALISING AN INDUSTRY Partnering with the United States, Japan is seeking to revitalise its domestic aerospace industry to counter technological and military rivals China and Russia. Last month, state-funded Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) successfully launched its new cost-efficient flagship rocket, the H3. JAXA completed a historic "pinpoint" moon landing this year, and the H3 is scheduled to carry about 20 satellites and probes to the space by 2030. Before that, however, JAXA had faced a series of setbacks. H3's inaugural flight failed last year, as did another flight of a smaller rocket, Epsilon, in 2022. In July 2023, an upgraded engine for Epsilon exploded at JAXA's testing site. In 2019, Interstellar Technologies conducted Japan's first privately developed rocket launch with its MOMO series, although without a full-scale satellite payload. The government last year promised "comprehensive" support , opens new tab for space startups with technology critical for national security, as it seeks to build satellite constellations to ramp up intelligence capabilities. Japan's defence ministry on Friday said it had struck a deal with Space One to boost its rockets' payload by experimenting with fuel-efficient methane engines. "Rocket Lab, too, did not achieve its mission at the inaugural (Electron) flight, but it went on to launch three rockets in its second year," Toyoda said. "We can't stop here – we need to compete with this company." The Reuters Daily Briefing newsletter provides all the news you need to start your day. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/technology/space/japans-space-one-counts-down-inaugural-kairos-rocket-launch-2024-03-12/