2024-03-08 06:36

XIAMEN, China, March 8 (Reuters) - China's coal imports are expected to be little changed or decline in 2024 despite an expected increase in overall demand for the polluting fuel, officials from industries, state-run utilities and traders said on Friday. Tepid growth in shipments by the world's top importer of the fuel could suppress global prices and worsen fears of oversupply, with Indonesia, the world's top exporter of coal, expected to further boost exports from record levels. Wu Wenbin, head of coal management at utility Guangdong Energy Group, told the China Coal Import International Summit in Xiamen that he expected China's coal imports to range between 450 million and 500 million metric tons this year. That compared with a 2023 record of 474.42 million tons, surprising analysts who had forecast imports of between 460 million and 470 million tons. Out of six other industry officials Reuters spoke to at the conference, four of them said they expected imports to remain flat or decline in 2024, mainly due to underwhelming growth in economic activity. "I am filled with despair about the state of my industry," one of the traders said. The other two said they estimated an increase in imports as they expect global prices to become more competitive with local prices. RECORD 2023 IMPORTS China's record imports and a surprise uptick in shipments by No.2 coal importer India helped balance coal markets in 2023. India's imports are expected to fall in 2024 for the first time since the pandemic year of 2020. Indonesian coal exports are expected to rise 2.1% to 528.72 million tons, despite expectations for production to fall 8.4% to 710 million, said Hendra Sinadia, of the Indonesian Coal Mining Association. Sinadia estimated higher exports as he projected a smaller share of output going to meet domestic fuel demand. Guangdong's Wu expects shipments from Indonesia to China to fall to 200 million metric tons this year, while imports of Australian coal will return to "a normal level" of 80 million tons. The world's top coal user imported a record 222 million tons of coal from Indonesia in 2023, and 62 million tons from Australia, data from analytics firm Kpler showed. Despite the largely underwhelming forecasts for imports, total Chinese coal consumption is expected to grow 4% in 2024, higher than the average annual growth of nearly 3% since 2021, Wu said. However, profits from coal mining and washing in China fell 25.3% in 2023 on the year to 762.89 billion yuan ($106 billion), in line with a fall of 25.5% in domestic spot prices, Wu said. Wu forecast that the average price of 5,500 kcal/kg coal at northern China ports would further fall to 850-950 yuan per metric ton in 2024, from an average of 970 last year. China is building a 600-million-ton coal reserve to balance supply and demand and control price fluctuations, he added. ($1=7.1917 Chinese yuan renminbi) https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-coal-imports-be-flat-2024-guangdong-energy-exec-says-2024-03-08/

2024-03-08 05:34

BEIJING, March 8 (Reuters) - China's electric vehicle sales slowed in the opening months of this year, industry data showed on Friday, with competition intensifying as market leader BYD headed a deeper round of price cuts. Sales of battery-powered EVs rose 18.2% in January-February versus 20.8% for all of 2023, showed data from the China Passenger Car Association. Together with plug-in hybrids, new energy vehicle (NEV) sales jumped 37.5% in the two-month period, versus 36.2% for 2023. The result outpaced the overall passenger vehicle market's 16.3% growth as widespread discounts fuelled demand. NEVs accounted for 33.5% of total car sales in January-February versus 28.3% in the same period a year earlier, grabbing market share from petrol-powered cars of which sales rose 7.8%. Some EVs are priced on a par with petrol-powered cars, pressuring sales of the latter, said Cui Dongshu, secretary general of the association, told reporters on Friday. BYD this year has lowered prices more than rivals and across a wider number of models. It has cut prices of the 13 models that made up 93% of its total 2023 China sales by 17% on average, Reuters calculations showed. Cuts include nearly 12% for its best-selling Yuan Plus crossover - or the Atto 3 overseas - and 5% for its lowest-priced EV Seagull. A dozen automakers have joined the price war, including Geely Auto (0175.HK) , opens new tab, GAC Aion, Leapmotor (9863.HK) , opens new tab and Xpeng (9868.HK) , opens new tab, with discounts mostly ranging from 9% to 17%. The price cuts came as BYD's NEV market share fell to 30.7% in February, its lowest since June 2022, Reuters calculations showed. BYD is the world's biggest EV seller having unseated U.S. rival Tesla (TSLA.O) , opens new tab, even if most of its sales are in China. It exported 19% of its cars overseas in February, its highest ratio ever. It sold 8% of all outbound cars in 2023. Association data showed China's February car exports rose 18% to 298,000 passenger cars, with NEVs accounting for 26.4% of the total. Exports have become a growth engine for carmakers struggling with weakening domestic demand. They have been selling new EV models in droves to markets such as Australia where they do not face trade barriers and where sales have surged due to subsidies and tax benefits as well as high fuel prices. However, in some markets, China's rising auto export prowess has caused friction. European authorities have launched an investigation into whether Chinese EV makers unfairly benefit from state subsidies, while the U.S. has begun a probe into whether Chinese-made vehicles could be used to spy on Americans. https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/china-ev-sales-slow-january-february-competition-intensifies-2024-03-08/

2024-03-08 05:34

NEW YORK, March 8 (Reuters) - The dollar traded modestly weaker against most major peers on Friday, and was on pace for its worst weekly showing against the euro this year after mixed data kept an anticipated June interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve on the table. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 275,000 jobs last month, the labor department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said in its closely watched employment report on Friday. Data for January was revised down to show 229,000 jobs created instead of 353,000 as previously reported. The unemployment rate rose to 3.9% in February after holding at 3.7% for three straight months, the data showed. "The market had been getting a little worried, I think, that the Fed was stepping back from being in a position to cut rates soon, particularly given the recent inflation reports," said Stuart Cole, chief economist at Equiti Capital. "Today's report should provide some optimism that, even if the scale of loosening will not be as strong as considered at the turn of the year, things are still moving in the right direction to allow the Fed to cut this year," he said. "In the short term at least, I think the dollar will be trading on a softer footing," Cole added. The euro was 0.06% lower against the dollar at $1.09425. The common currency hit an eight-week high earlier in the session and was up nearly 1% for the week, its best weekly performance against the buck since the week ended Dec. 22. The ECB kept rates at record highs of 4.00% on Thursday while cautiously laying the ground to lower them later this year, saying it had made good progress in bringing down inflation. The euro got a lift this week as the dollar came under pressure after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sounded more confident about cutting interest rates in coming months. Speaking on Thursday, Powell said the Fed was "not far" from having the confidence it needed to cut rates. Currencies typically weaken if central banks lower interest rates. "(Friday's data) really kind of solidifies what Chair Powell was saying this week, about the confidence he had in the potential to begin the rate cutting cycle this year," said Lindsey Bell, chief strategist at 248 Ventures in Charlotte, North Carolina. Meanwhile, the yen rose to a five-week high against the dollar, aided by reports the Bank of Japan is warming to the idea of raising interest rates and considering a new quantitative monetary policy framework. Jiji news agency reported the BoJ is considering a framework that will show the outlook for upcoming government bond buying amounts. Separately, Reuters reported a growing number of BoJ policymakers could support ending negative interest rates this month on expectations that this year's annual wage negotiations will yield strong results, four sources familiar with its thinking said. Against the yen , the dollar was 0.68% lower at 147.05 yen, its weakest since Feb. 2. "The yen is rising as speculation mounts that the BoJ will buck the global central bank trend and hike interest rates later this month," said Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB. "In the short term, a powerful downtrend seems to be building for USD/JPY, and we believe that this pair could test 145.00," she added. Sterling , opens new tab rose on Friday against a weakening euro and dollar after signs that the European Central Bank (ECB) and the U.S. Federal Reserve might be closer to cutting rates than the Bank of England (BoE). The pound rose 0.34% to $1.2854 after hitting its highest since late July. Firming hopes that interest rates in the U.S. and Europe will start to fall in June also helped prop up the risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars. The Aussie was up 0.09% while the kiwi was 0.05% higher. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin was up 2.77% at $69,207, after hitting a record high of $70,175. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/dollar-droops-ahead-payrolls-2024-03-08/

2024-03-08 05:32

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Rae Wee The dollar's 1% fall for the week thus far is set to be its steepest in nearly three months, and tonight's U.S. jobs data is the next test for the greenback. It would take a very, very strong number to change the outlook for U.S. rates, given how Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has already opened the door to cutting rates even if unemployment stays low, as long as inflation continues to slow. Forecasts are for nonfarm payrolls to have increased by 200,000 in February, down from January's blowout 353,000 gain. "We believe fewer end-of-year layoffs produced (the) temporary spike, and with the seasonal layoff period now behind us, we assume a return towards a more normal pace of job gains," analysts at Goldman Sachs said. So for now, the first of the Fed's rate cut seems to be within sight - unless next week's U.S. inflation report proves otherwise. The dollar has thus far been the clearest reflection of the easing expectations, with its recent move lower and buoyant risk sentiment hoisting the Aussie back above the $0.6600 level. Record peaks for gold and bitcoin this week also show the dollar's vulnerability. The euro , too, is at a two-month high and eyeing its best week against the dollar in months, even as the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday laid the ground for a rate cut in June and lowered its inflation forecast. TURNING THE PAGE While most of the world focuses on the global easing cycle, over in Japan, it seems the time is ripe for a rate hike. Bank of Japan (BOJ) officials have begun ramping up their hawkish rhetoric and shown increasing confidence that the Japanese economy was moving towards the BOJ's 2% inflation target, just ahead of the central bank's March 18-19 policy meeting. Wage talks from large Japanese companies also look set to yield hefty pay hikes, paving the way for the BOJ to exit negative interest rates, which some say could happen this month. That's helped the yen - which has crumbled under a towering dollar for the most part of the past two years - jump to a one-month high against the greenback on Friday . Japan's banking stocks index (.IBNKS.T) , opens new tab was similarly eyeing a weekly rise of more than 6%, its strongest performance since September, when there was a lot of speculation of an imminent policy shift heading into the BOJ meeting that month. "Our BOJ call of an early NIRP (negative interest rate policy) removal in March and an additional rate hike in 2024 used to be an out-of-consensus call, but more market participants and economists may start to price in the scenario ahead of the March (monetary policy meeting)," said economists at Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities. Key developments that could influence markets on Friday: - Germany industrial output (January) - Germany industrial production (January) - Euro zone revised Q4 GDP - U.S. nonfarm payrolls (February) https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/global-markets-view-europe-2024-03-08/

2024-03-08 05:21

WASHINGTON, March 7 (Reuters) - U.S. President Joe Biden vowed Thursday to raise taxes on wealthy Americans and large companies, announcing plans in his State of the Union address to hike corporate minimum taxes and cut deductions for executive pay and corporate jets. Biden previewed the steps that will be part of a proposed fiscal 2025 budget released next week that aims to decrease the federal deficit by $3 trillion over 10 years while cutting taxes for low-income Americans and aiding middle-class homebuyers. He proposed a new tax credit that would help Americans buy first homes or trade up to larger ones by providing the equivalent of $400 per month for the next two years to offset high mortgage rates. Biden also called for the elimination of title insurance on refinancings of federally backed mortgages, a move that can save homeowners $1,000 or more. The tax plans are expected to form a core part of the Democratic president's re-election campaign, contrasting with Republican candidate Donald Trump, who signed a 2017 law that slashed taxes on companies, the wealthy and many middle-class Americans. "I'm a capitalist. You want to make a million, or millions of bucks? That's great. Just pay your fair share in taxes," Biden said, adding that the Trump-era tax cuts "exploded the federal deficit." Most of Biden's tax proposals have little chance of enactment unless Democrats win strong majorities in both chambers of Congress in November, a sweep that polls suggest is unlikely. In addition to previous calls to raise the corporate income tax rate to 28% from 21% currently, he called for an increase to "at least 21%" for the 15% corporate minimum tax that he won as part of 2022 clean energy legislation. The tax applies to firms reporting over $1 billion in profits. Biden administration officials also told reporters he wants to quadruple the 1% tax on corporate stock buybacks approved in 2022. TAX BREAK CURBS Biden also urged Congress to approve far stricter limits on business income deductions for executive pay, limiting them to $1 million for any given employee. Current law prohibits deductions on compensation for chief executive officers, chief financial officers and other key positions. White House officials said the new proposal would cover all employees paid more than $1 million, and raise more than $250 billion in new corporate tax revenue over 10 years. Biden also called for Congress to go after business income deductions for the use of corporate jets, an area already targeted for audits by the Internal Revenue Service. This includes extending the depreciation period for corporate jets to seven years, the same as commercial aircraft, from five years currently, reducing annual deductions, an administration official said. Biden renewed his call for a "billionaire tax" that would impose a 25% minimum tax on income for those Americans with wealth of more than $100 million, saying it would raise $500 billion over 10 years to help fund benefits such as child care and paid family leave. The average American worker paid about a 25% tax rate in 2022, the OECD reported , opens new tab. Biden said the average tax rate for some 1,000 billionaires was 8.2%, adding: "No billionaire should pay a lower tax rate than a teacher, a sanitation worker, a nurse." He pledged to extend Trump-era tax cuts for those earning under $400,000 and revive a COVID-era expansion of the Child Tax Credit and increase a tax credit for low-wage workers. Biden's latest proposals drew a sharp rebuke from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which has made preserving the 2017 Republican tax cuts a top priority. Biden's policies "would actually result in lower economic growth, fewer new business starts, less job creation, and fewer choices for American families," said Neil Bradley, the Chamber's chief policy officer. But Chuck Marr, who heads tax policy at the left-leaning Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, said Biden's "course correction" would make the U.S. tax system fairer. “President Biden's tax proposals recognize that the 2017 Trump tax law - as exemplified in the corporate tax rate cut - was skewed to the wealthy, expensive, and failed to deliver on its promises," Marr said. FIGHTING 'JUNK FEES' As consumers continue to face high prices, Biden also said his administration would continue to crack down on "price gouging" including "junk fees" added to stated prices, and smaller package sizes - the "shrinkflation" bemoaned on Monday by Sesame Street muppet Cookie Monster in an X social media post. After a move this week to cap credit card late fees at $8, Biden said this would save Americans $20 billion and banks were "mad" about it. "I'm not stopping there. My new administration is proposing rules on cable, travel, utilities, online ticket sellers, telling you the total price upfront. So there are no surprises. It matters," he added. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/state-union-biden-push-wealth-company-tax-ideas-2024-03-07/

2024-03-08 02:39

HAVANA, March 7 (Reuters) - Cuban authorities on Thursday said they are investigating recently sacked Economy Minister Alejandro Gil over committing "grave errors" in his former role, rattling the highest ranks of Cuba's ruling Communist Party and its hermetic politics. Gil, who was sacked by President Miguel Diaz-Canel in February, spearheaded a major monetary reform in Cuba in 2021 - largely seen as disastrous for the Cuban economy. A television news broadcast and a subsequent news story in state-run digital news outlet CubaDebate on Thursday said a "rigorous investigation" had taken place and accused Gil of "serious errors ... in the performance of his duties." The publications provided no details of those errors or the allegations against Gil. "The leadership of our Party and government has never allowed, nor will it ever allow, the proliferation of corruption, simulation and insensitivity," the statement in state-run media said. Gil did not immediately respond to the announcements. State-run media, however, said Gil had acknowledged the accusations and "renounced his status as a member of the Central Committee of the (Communist) Party and as a deputy to the National Assembly." Gil advocated most recently for an unpopular plan to raise prices for many government subsidized services, from gasoline to electricity and cooking gas, raising tensions on the street amid runaway inflation and rampant shortages. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/cuba-says-former-economy-minister-under-investigation-over-grave-errors-2024-03-08/