2024-02-22 13:08

poll data NEW YORK, Feb 22 (Reuters) - The S&P 500 will finish this year above the 5,000 mark, but up just a little more than 2% from its current level, as it remains unclear when the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates, according to strategists in a Reuters poll. By end-December, the benchmark index (.SPX) , opens new tab will be at 5,100, according to the median forecast of 40 strategists polled by Reuters during the last week and a half. That is 2.4% higher than Wednesday's close of 4,981.80. That latest prediction was well above the 4,700 year-end level forecast in a Reuters poll in November. The S&P 500 has risen sharply in recent months, partly fueled by the view the Fed could soon start cutting rates. The index has hit record highs this year, and is up about 4% so far for 2024 after rising 24% in 2023. Optimism over artificial intelligence that drove a rally in technology stocks last year could be a source of support. Shares of Nvidia (NVDA.O) , opens new tab jumped late on Wednesday following the chipmaker's forecast for fiscal first-quarter revenue above estimates on robust demand for its chips that dominate the market for AI. It also sparked gains in other AI hardware stocks. Still, eight of 13 strategists who answered an additional question on whether a correction is likely in U.S. stocks over the next three months said it was likely or highly likely. "I'm cautious at these levels and I think we're headed for some sort of pullback," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York. "That's based on the fact yields are probably going to work their way higher. The Fed is in no mood to loosen credit any time soon, so that will be a deterrent in terms of the market. Also, valuations are high." But he and other forecasters see the market possibly rallying starting in the summer as the U.S. presidential race heats up. Cardillo expects the S&P 500 to end this year at 5,400. On Wednesday, minutes from the Fed's January meeting showed most policymakers were concerned about the risks of cutting rates too soon, and there was broad uncertainty about how long borrowing costs should remain at their current level. After the release of the minutes, traders of U.S. short-term interest-rate futures stuck to bets the Fed will begin cutting rates no earlier than June. A separate Reuters poll of economists published earlier this week predicted June was the most likely month the Fed would begin cutting. Analysts expect overall S&P 500 earnings to rise 9.5% in 2024 after increasing around 4% in 2023, LSEG data showed. But valuations have risen along with stock prices. The S&P 500's forward price-to-earnings ratio -- a commonly used metric to value stocks -- is at 20.7 times, well above the index's long-term average of 15.7, according to LSEG Datastream. "The economy should continue to muddle along, and companies will manage costs in a way that allows for muted earnings growth," said Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute in Charlotte, North Carolina. Wells Fargo sees the S&P 500 ending this year at 4,900. Based on the poll, the Dow Jones industrial average (.DJI) , opens new tab will finish this year at 41,600, up 7.7% from Wednesday's close. The Dow is up 2.4% so far in 2024. (Other stories from the Reuters global stock markets poll package:) https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/sp-500-end-2024-with-small-gain-after-strong-2023-2024-02-22/

2024-02-22 13:08

Feb 22 (Reuters) - AT&T (T.N) , opens new tab said late on Thursday an outage that disrupted calls and text messages for thousands of U.S. users and prompted federal investigations was not caused by a cyberattack. The carrier had restored wireless service for all affected customers, several hours after an outage that affected more than 70,000 users at its peak. "Based on our initial review, we believe that today's outage was caused by the application and execution of an incorrect process used as we were expanding our network," the wireless carrier said in a statement on its website. AT&T, whose 5G network covers around 290 million people across the United States, has been grappling with interruptions to its service for more than 10 hours. "We are taking steps to ensure our customers do not experience this again in the future," AT&T earlier said on its website. The Federal Communications Commission said it was investigating the incident, while the U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) said it was working with AT&T to understand the cause. White House spokesman John Kirby said the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) were looking into the AT&T outage. CISA is a unit of DHS. "We are being told AT&T has no reason to think this was a cyber or security incident," said Kirby, adding that the FCC was in touch with the company. "But the bottom line is we don't have all the answers," he said about the cause of the outage. AT&T declined to comment on the FCC's investigation into the incident. The company did not provide further details on the reason for the outage and the number of affected users. AT&T shares were down 2.4% in afternoon trading. The number of outage incidents to about 3,255 by around 2:47 p.m. ET (1947 GMT), according to tracking website Downdetector.com. The FBI also said that it was in touch with the company about the network outage. "Should we learn of any malicious activity, we will respond accordingly," it said in a statement. Doug Madory, the director of internet analysis firm Kentik, said it was unclear from the outside what exactly had happened at AT&T, although he said he doubted it was the result of malicious activity. "I'm skeptical this was some kind of an attack," he said in a telephone interview. "Most of these things end up being some kind of a software push that got screwed up somehow." The outage affected people's ability to reach emergency services by dialing 911, according to posts on the X social media platform by government departments in several U.S. cities. "We are aware of an issue impacting AT&T wireless customers from making and receiving any phone calls (including to 911), the San Francisco Fire Department said on X. The Prince William County Police Department in Virginia and Charlotte-Mecklenburg Police Department in North Carolina posted similar statements on the platform. Users of Verizon (VZ.N) , opens new tab, T-Mobile (TMUS.O) , opens new tab and UScellular (USM.N) , opens new tab also faced disruptions, but they were more limited than the AT&T reports, Downdetector showed. The other companies said their network was operating normally and the outage was potentially related to customers trying to connect with other networks. U.S. Senator Rick Scott of Florida said in a post on X that he had contacted AT&T for an update. "Florida law enforcement is doing everything it can to keep people safe, and I expect AT&T to keep us informed on what it is doing to get 911 services fully back online ASAP," he said. In 2021, regulators settled for $19.5 million a probe into a T-Mobile outage during the pandemic that lasted over 12 hours and led to more than 20,000 failed 911 emergency calls. https://www.reuters.com/technology/cellular-outage-us-hits-att-t-mobile-verizon-users-downdetector-shows-2024-02-22/

2024-02-22 13:01

Polish and Ukrainian government to meet on March 28 Ukraine's president called on Wednesday for urgent talks Polish farmer protests continue WARSAW, Feb 22 (Reuters) - Poland's prime minister said on Thursday the Polish and Ukrainian governments would meet in Warsaw on March 28, but did not accept a request by Ukraine's president for urgent talks on border blockades by Polish farmers. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called on Wednesday for Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, Polish President Andrzej Duda and European Union officials to come to the Ukrainian-Polish border to discuss the protests by farmers angered by what they say is unfair competition from Ukraine. Zelenskiy made clear he wanted talks before Saturday's second anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. "I have agreed with the prime minister of Ukraine for a meeting between the two governments, which will take place in Warsaw on March 28, and I hope that by then technical talks will lead to a fruitful meeting," Tusk told a press conference. Asked by a reporter whether this meant he was not going to the border for talks, Tusk said he believed he had made himself clear. He offered no direct comment on Zelenskiy's proposal. The protests against EU climate policies and imports of agricultural products from outside the bloc, particularly from Ukraine, are supported by many Poles. This leaves Tusk facing a difficult balancing act as he tries to maintain Poland's staunch support for Kyiv in its defence against Russia's invasion while also addressing farmers' concerns. Tusk reiterated his support for Kyiv's war effort, and said joint solutions needed to be found to the problems of farmers complaining of unfair competition since the EU waived customs duties on Ukrainian imports in 2022 because of the war. He said Poland would include border crossings with Ukraine and certain sections of roads on a list of critical infrastructure to "ensure a 100% guarantee that military aid - equipment, ammunition, humanitarian aid, medical aid - will reach the Ukrainian side without any delays". Ukraine did not immediately comment on Tusk's remarks. PROTESTS CONTINUE IN POLAND Kyiv has said the farmer protests, which have included repeated blockades of border crossings with Ukraine, are damaging its fight to repel a Russian invasion. Zelenskiy said on Wednesday Poland and Ukraine needed unity, and should not humiliate either Ukrainian or Polish farmers. He also said Ukraine could not accept the appearance of slogans supporting Russian President Vladimir Putin at the protests, after one such banner was displayed on Tuesday. Poland said it was investigating the display of the pro-Putin banner reading "Putin - sort out Ukraine, Brussels and our government", close to the Czech border. On Thursday, Tusk said that any such display of pro-Putin sentiment was "treason" and would not be tolerated. Farmers continued to demonstrate across Poland on Thursday although on a smaller scale than on Tuesday, a day of mass protest. Adrian Wawrzyniak, a spokesperson for the Solidarity farmers' union, said protesters were blocking three crossings with Ukraine although some trucks were being let through. He also said a bridge linking Poland to the Czech Republic was being blocked, as were several roads around the country. Farmers from the Czech Republic, Slovakia and other central European countries protested along Czech borders on Thursday, blocking some crossings as they demanded less bureaucracy and changes to EU policy. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/poland-ukraine-government-talks-set-march-28-farmer-protests-continue-2024-02-22/

2024-02-22 13:00

LAUNCESTON, Australia, Feb 22 (Reuters) - When looking at the commodities used to make steel, iron ore gathers the bulk of headlines given its strong link to the perceived health of China's economy. But metallurgical coal is also a key input, and this fuel has quietly been a top performer in the energy commodity space in recent months. Australia dominates the seaborne market for metallurgical coal, accounting for more than half of global volumes, and about three times the shipments of the next biggest exporter, the United States. The price of Australian metallurgical coal, also known as coking coal, on the Singapore Exchange ended at $315 a metric ton on Wednesday. The contracts, which are linked to the free-on-board price in Australia, have risen 40.3% since the 2023 low of $224.50 a ton on July 6. In contrast, high-grade Australian thermal coal is only 0.5% higher than its 2023 low, while Brent crude oil has risen 13.4% from its low in December, and spot liquefied natural gas is down 2.2% from the weakest it was in 2023. While the price is well below the record $635 a ton reached in March 2022 amid fears to global supplies after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February of that year, it's still well above the broad $100-$250 range that prevailed from 2018 to mid-2021. Unlike iron ore, which is dominated by China gobbling up more than 70% of global seaborne volumes, coking coal is a more evenly-spread market with demand centres in both the developed countries of North Asia and the developing nations of South Asia. It's likely that much of the increase in prices in coking coal in recent years is down to increased demand from India, which has seen imports rise from 53.32 million tons in 2020 to 70.49 million in 2023, according to data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler. Australia remains the biggest supplier to India, with imports in 2023 coming in at 41.0 million tons, down slightly from 43.22 million the prior year. It's worth noting that India has turned to Russian coking coal since Moscow's war on Ukraine, snapping up discounted cargoes that can no longer go to Europe because of sanctions against Russia. India's imports of Russian metallurgical coal rose to 11.76 million tons in 2023, almost double the 6.07 million the previous year and four times the 2.63 million from 2021. China's imports of seaborne coking coal also rose in 2023, reaching 36.8 million tons, up from 27.05 million the previous year. This is largely a reflection of the return of Australian coal to China after Beijing lifted its informal ban, imposed in 2020 amid a series of political disputes with Canberra. AUSTRALIA RECORD Australia's exports of coking coal have been trending lower in recent years, largely as a result of supply disruptions caused by bad weather in the main producing state of Queensland. However, they have rebounded in February, with Kpler data showing shipments of 17.86 million tons, the second-highest on record behind the 18.65 million from June 2019. The strength wasn't really a China or India story, with Japan leading import growth in February, with Kpler assessing arrivals at a three-month high of 4.56 million tons, of which Australia provided 3.86 million. South Korea also saw higher imports in February, with arrivals of 3.45 million tons, the most since November 2021, according to Kpler. The overall picture that emerges for seaborne coking coal is one where demand in Asia is recovering, with Kpler data showing imports by the region rose for a third straight month in February, likely reaching 19.8 million tons, up from 19.46 million in January and the best month since October. The longer-term outlook is more nuanced, given efforts to reduce carbon emissions in the steel sector. BHP Group (BHP.AX) , opens new tab, the world's largest shipper of metallurgical coal, believes the market has decades of life left in it as the alternatives to using coal to make steel are either not competitive on a cost basis or unlikely to emerge at scale for decades. However, the company also warned in its results presentation this week that investment in new mines is less attractive, especially in Queensland where the state government imposed sharply higher royalties in July 2022. While it is to be expected that a company will rail against higher taxes, the trick for BHP is to invest to keep production high enough to meet demand, but low enough to also keep prices strong, but not so low that the Queensland government follows through on its threat to strip the company of its mining licences should it not invest sufficiently. The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/metallurgical-coal-is-commodity-worlds-quiet-performer-russell-2024-02-22/

2024-02-22 12:55

Feb 22 (Reuters) - B Riley Financial (RILY.O) , opens new tab said on Thursday an internal review had found the investment bank had no involvement with or knowledge of any of the alleged misconducts concerning Prophecy Asset Management, sending its shares up 12% before the bell. The bank has been contending with investor worries after a Bloomberg News report last year said Franchise's former CEO Brian Kahn was one of the co-conspirators in a securities fraud case involving Prophecy Asset Management. Kahn has vehemently denied the allegations. B Riley had participated in the buyout of vitamin and supplements maker Vitamin Shoppe's owner Franchise Group last year. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/b-riley-says-internal-review-found-no-bank-involvement-alleged-prophecy-2024-02-22/

2024-02-22 12:54

DUBAI, Feb 22 (Reuters) - A cargo ship was set on fire off the southern coast of Yemen after being struck in a missile attack on Thursday that has prompted U.S.-led naval forces to respond, British maritime agencies reported. The UK-owned, Palau-flagged ship was en route to Egypt from Thailand, according to maritime security firm Ambrey and ship tracking data. Islander is the name of the vessel, two shipping sources said. U.S.-led coalition forces are responding to the incident, which involved two missiles being fired at the ship some 70 nautical miles southeast of Aden, Yemen, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency said. Iran-aligned Houthi militants in Yemen have launched repeated drone and missile strikes in the Red Sea, Bab al-Mandab Strait and Gulf of Aden since November. The Houthis have said they are acting out of support for Palestinians in Gaza. U.S. and British forces in January began retaliatory strikes on Houthi facilities. EYES ON RUBYMAR No ships have been sunk nor crew killed in the Houthi attacks, however there are concerns about the fate of the Rubymar cargo vessel which was struck on Feb 18. The Houthis said the Rubymar was at risk of sinking but a U.S. defence official said as of Thursday the ship remained afloat. Such attacks are disrupting a route which accounts for about 12% of global maritime traffic and forcing firms to take a longer, more expensive route around Africa. "If anything, Houthis attacks on cargo ships are intensifying in the Red Sea and around the Gulf of Aden," Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM wrote in a note on Tuesday. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/vessel-attacked-by-missiles-southeast-yemens-aden-ukmto-says-2024-02-22/