2024-01-05 05:51
JAKARTA, Jan 5 (Reuters) - Rescuers in Indonesia were battling on Friday to extricate two people trapped between railway cars after commuter trains collided in the province of West Java, killing at least three and injuring 28, authorities said. Video images from broadcasters MetroTV and Kompas TV showed passengers being helped out of train carriages, some of which had gone off the rails entirely. Rescuers were weighing options to save the two people found squeezed between cars, said Herry Marantika, the head of a rescue agency, but declined to say if they were still alive. Ambulances gathered to take the injured to hospital, police said, following the collision at 6:03 a.m. (1103 GMT) near the provincial capital of Bandung. The three dead were train crew, said Ibrahim Tompo, a regional spokesperson of West Java police, adding that a total of 478 passengers were aboard the trains, with the 28 injured taken to hospital. The cause of the crash not immediately clear, but train operator PT KAI and the provincial government have said they will investigate, along with transport safety officials. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/commuter-train-collision-indonesia-kills-three-injures-28-2024-01-05/
2024-01-05 05:37
Nonfarm payrolls forecast increasing 170,000 in December Unemployment rate expected to rise to 3.8% from 3.7% Average hourly earnings seen gaining 0.3%; up 3.9% y/y WASHINGTON, Jan 5 (Reuters) - U.S. job growth likely moderated in December, while the increase in annual wages probably slowed to below 4% for the first time in 2-1/2 years, potentially drawing the Federal Reserve a step closer to start cutting interest rates. The closely watched employment report from the Labor Department on Friday is also expected to show the unemployment rate edging up to 3.8% last month from 3.7% in November. Easing labor market conditions would add to data last month showing inflation ebbing significantly in November and could cement financial market expectations for a rate cut in March. The report would also indicate that the economy avoided a recession last year and would likely continue to grow through 2024 as labor market resilience supports consumer spending. "Right now, employers are hiring to keep the doors open, rather than to expand, but they're also not letting workers go," said Elizabeth Crofoot, a senior economist at Lightcast in Washington. "That's close to the 'Goldilocks' job market that the Fed has been trying to achieve." Nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 170,000 jobs last month after rising 199,000 in November, according to a Reuters survey of economists. Baring any revisions to October and November's payrolls counts, this would mean the economy added roughly 2.722 million jobs in 2023, a sharp step-down from the 4.793 million positions created in 2022. That reflects cooling demand for both labor and in the economy following 525 basis points worth of rate hikes from the U.S. central bank since March 2022. Roughly 100,000 jobs per month are needed to keep up with growth in the working age population. Unseasonably mild weather likely boosted hiring at construction sites last month, while employment in the motion picture and sound recording industries is expected to rise further as disruptions from the since ended strikes fade. Retail employment is a wild card amid conflicting signals on the holiday shopping season. DANGER LURKING? But danger could be lurking beneath the seemingly resilient labor market. Job growth in recent months has been largely concentrated in less than a handful of sectors, including leisure and hospitality as well as healthcare. Government hiring as state and local governments try to bring education staffing back to pre-pandemic levels has also been driving employment gains. Government payrolls growth has averaged 63,800 per month since July. Some economists said this indicated that the labor market was not as strong as the numbers suggested. Nonetheless, most do not expect a recession this year, but lackluster growth. "The rest of the industries have not been hiring people very much at all," said Sung Won Sohn, finance and economics professor at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles. "We are going to have a 'soft landing' but that hides the pain." Goldman Sachs economist Manuel Abecasis was, however, less concerned, noting that the three industries that have dominated hiring accounted for 40% of employment. "The industries accounting for 70% of total employment have continued to add jobs on net," said Abecasis. "Looking ahead, we expect total labor demand to continue to ease gradually but the breadth of hiring to widen somewhat." Financial markets are betting the Fed will begin cutting rates as early as March. Those expectations could get more mileage, with average hourly earnings expected to increase 0.3% in December after rising 0.4% in the prior month. That would lower the year-on-year increase in wages to 3.9%, the smallest since June 2021, from 4.0% in November. The central bank held its policy rate steady in the current 5.25%-5.50% range last month and policymakers signaled in new economic projections that the historic monetary policy tightening engineered over the last two years is at an end and lower borrowing costs are coming in 2024. With December's employment report, the government will incorporate annual revisions to the seasonally adjusted household survey data, from the which the unemployment rate is derived, for the past five years. The revisions typically have little impact on the jobless rate or the labor force participation rate. There has been an influx of people into the labor force, some of it tied to a rise in immigration. The expanding labor pool is curbing wage growth and lifting the unemployment rate, which has risen from a five-decade low of 3.4% in April. "We are certainly getting in the territory where, when incorporating productivity, wage growth is more consistent with the Fed's 2% target," said Sam Bullard, a senior economist at Wells Fargo in Charlotte, North Carolina. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/slower-us-job-growth-expected-december-annual-wages-increase-seen-below-4-2024-01-05/
2024-01-05 05:36
LAUNCESTON, Australia, Jan 5 (Reuters) - Asia's imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) rose to a record in December, but spot prices remained subdued as shipments from top exporters Australia and the United States also hit all-time highs. Asia, the top buyer of the super-chilled fuel, saw imports reach 26.61 million metric tons in December, according to data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler. This was up from November's 23.35 million tons and also eclipsed the previous high of 26.15 million from January 2021, according to Kpler. The rebound in imports was driven largely by China, which reclaimed its title as the world's largest LNG buyer in 2023 from Japan. China's imports surged to 8.22 million tons in December, up from 6.97 million in November and the highest since January 2021, according to Kpler. Asia's other heavyweight importers also saw gains, with Japan landing 6.78 million tons, up from November's 5.40 million and the most since January 2023, while South Korea's December imports were 5.10 million, up from 4.19 million in November and the highest since February 2021. The robust demand did little to spark a rally in prices, with the weekly spot index slipping to $11.70 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in the seven days to Dec. 29, down from $11.90 previously and the lowest since August. The spot price dropped 58.2% over 2023 as demand for cargoes eased after a surge in 2022 led by Europe's efforts to replace Russian pipeline natural gas in the wake of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Europe's LNG imports also rose in December, hitting 11.80 million tons, up from November's 10.81 million and the highest since April last year, according to Kpler. While demand increased in December, it had been soft in the preceding months as mild winter weather in both Asia and Europe, as well as plentiful inventories, limited demand for spot cargoes. The strength in demand for LNG in Asia in December was matched by strong export performances from the world's three biggest LNG suppliers. The United States, which overtook Australia as the world's biggest exporter of LNG in 2023, shipped out 8.56 million tons in December, up from 7.51 million in November and the highest monthly total on record, according to Kpler data. AUSTRALIA, QATAR Australia also had a record December, with Kpler data showing exports at 7.26 million tons, up from 6.61 million in November and eclipsing the previous monthly all-time high of 7.18 million from June 2022. Qatar also saw robust exports in December, with shipments of 7.11 million tons, up from 6.36 million in November and the most since the 7.40 million from January 2023. In effect, the rise in demand in December was matched by increasing supply. What this does is raise questions about the outlook for the spot price once the winter peak demand period passes. If supply remains steady, it points to prices having to decline in order to tempt more buyers into the market. A retreat in the spot price below $10 per mmBtu may lead to countries such as India, Pakistan and Bangladesh buying cargoes. India's LNG imports dropped to 1.86 million tons in December, from 1.99 million in November, although they were up from 1.32 million in December 2022. India is viewed as a price-sensitive buyer and it's worth noting that when the South Asia nation's imports were at their highest, in early and mid-2020, the spot price was languishing at record lows, slumping to $1.85 per mmBtu in early May of that year. The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/asias-lng-imports-hit-record-supply-surge-keeps-price-muted-russell-2024-01-05/
2024-01-05 05:33
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland The story of 2024 thus far has been an aggressive repricing of dovish Federal Reserve bets. The effect on markets has been a slide in global equities and a bounce in the dollar, setting up the former for its first losing week in 10 and the latter for its best week since mid-July. The monthly U.S. payrolls report due later in the day had already loomed large, but its significance has been ratcheted up after data overnight provided even more evidence of labour market resilience, easing pressure on the Fed to rush to cut rates. Traders now see a little better than 2-in-3 odds that the Fed cuts rates by March, down from a 71% probability a week earlier, according to the CME Group's Fedwatch tool. Where the dollar has been particularly strong is against the yen, both because of the climb back to 4% for long-term Treasury yields and with the deadly New Year's Day quake on the Japan Sea coast forcing the last wagers for a hawkish Bank of Japan policy shift this month off the table. Analysts don't see the disaster as having a huge economic impact, but at the very least, policy makers who had already been sounding dovish will want to see how recovery efforts progress before tightening financial conditions. Britain gets house price data, a day after strong consumer lending figures bolstered bets the economy can skirt a recession, lifting sterling further off the three-week trough from Tuesday that had been caused by tepid inflation figures. The euro zone releases inflation data of its own later on Friday. Key developments that could influence markets on Friday: -US non-farm payrolls (Dec) -UK Halifax house prices (Dec), PMI (Dec) -Euro zone HICP (Dec) -Italy CPI (Dec) https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/global-markets-view-europe-2024-01-05/
2024-01-05 04:48
MUMBAI, Jan 5 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee was marginally higher on Friday, while its Asian peers were weaker in the lead-up to the monthly U.S. jobs report that analysts say will shape expectations around the March Federal Reserve policy decision. The rupee was at 83.2050 to the U.S. dollar at 09:58 a.m. IST, up from 83.23 in the previous session. The Indian currency has had a better beginning to 2024 than its Asian peers. The rupee is marginally up from December, while a pullback in Fed rate cut expectations has spurred a decline on other Asian currencies. The U.S. non-farm payrolls data due Friday is an important data point for investors looking to gauge how many times the Fed is likely to cut rates this year. Investors are currently pricing in 140 basis points of total interest rate cuts this year and a near 70% chance of a rate cut in March. "Today’s jobs data is very important for markets and the rupee," Srinivas Puni, managing director at FX advisory firm QuantArt Market Solutions, said. Good data "could trigger a repricing of Fed expectations", he added. Economists polled by Reuters expect the U.S. economy to have added 170,000 jobs in December, with the unemployment rate pegged at 3.8% and wage growth at 0.3% month-on-month. "In our view, a print on nonfarm payrolls of 200,000 or better, along with beats on average hourly earnings, participation, or average weekly hours, is likely to reduce market expectations for rate cuts beginning in March or, equivalently, fewer cuts over the course of 2024," BofA Securities said in a note. The risk of an "upward beat" on the jobs number has increased marginally following Thursday's data, a FX trader at a bank said. U.S. private payrolls rose more than expected in December and jobless claims dropped to a two-month low, data released Thursday showed. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/rupee-inches-up-asia-fx-awaits-us-jobs-report-assess-fed-outlook-2024-01-05/
2024-01-05 04:28
SHANGHAI, Jan 5 (Reuters) - China's yuan eased against the dollar on Friday, as a widening yield spread and balance sheet policy divergences between the U.S. and China remained short-term headwinds for the yuan. The yield gap between China's 10-year government bonds and its U.S. counterparts has widened by 24 basis points (bps) since Dec. 27 to 144 bps, with the market repricing the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy easing and expectations for rate cuts in China continuing to build. The yield on actively traded 10-year China government bonds touched the lowest point since April 2020 on Friday. The ongoing divergence in the balance sheet policies of the Fed versus the People's Bank of China (PBOC) is a significant short-term headwind for the offshore yuan, traders at Citi said, adding that they expect further interest rate cuts and additional loan injections via China's pledged supplementary lending (PSL) facility. China's central bank made 350 billion yuan ($48.83 billion)in loans to policy banks through its PSL facility in December, fuelling expectations of increased support for the country's ailing housing sector. "However, we expect onshore exporter USD holdings, which look abnormally large this year, to be converted to the yuan ahead of the Lunar New Year, which should drive the yuan stronger against the dollar towards the end of January or the first week of February," the traders said. Prior to the market's opening, the PBOC set the midpoint rate , around which the yuan is allowed to trade in a 2% band, at 7.1029 per U.S. dollar, 33 pips weaker than the previous fix 7.0997. The spot yuan opened at 7.1675 per dollar and was changing hands at 7.1684 at midday, 64 pips weaker than the previous late session close. The global dollar index (.DXY) rose to 102.457 from the previous close of 102.422. Investors are watching U.S. payrolls data later in the day to gauge the Fed's policy path, which could also affect the yuan-dollar pair. The offshore yuan was trading 99 pips weaker than the onshore spot at 7.1783 per dollar. The yuan market at 0333 GMT: ONSHORE SPOT: Key indexes: *Divergence of the dollar/yuan exchange rate. Negative number indicates that spot yuan is trading stronger than the midpoint. The People's Bank of China (PBOC) allows the exchange rate to rise or fall 2% from official midpoint rate it sets each morning. OFFSHORE CNH MARKET *Premium for offshore spot over onshore **Figure reflects difference from PBOC's official midpoint, since non-deliverable forwards are settled against the midpoint. . ($1 = 7.1677 Chinese yuan renminbi) https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/chinas-yuan-eases-against-dollar-widening-yield-differential-2024-01-05/
