2023-12-15 04:59

Exports -8.56% y/y, vs -9.36% in poll Imports +3.29% y/y, vs +0.20% in poll Trade surplus at $2.41 bln, vs $3.05 bln in poll JAKARTA, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Indonesia's trade surplus narrowed in November to $2.41 billion as imports increased more than expected, while exports extended their weakening trend, data from the statistics bureau showed on Friday. Southeast Asia's biggest economy has seen its shipments declining by value in the past months due to falling commodity prices and slowing global demand. In November, exports fell 8.56% on a yearly basis to $22 billion versus expectations of 9.36% drop in a Reuters poll. Shipment of Indonesia's coal and palm oil, which are its top commodities, were down 34.25% and 12.60% on an annual basis, respectively, as prices continued to weaken in November. Total volume of coal and crude palm oil exports in November were at 33.9 million metric tons and 2.5 million metric tons, respectively. Imports, on the other hand, were up 3.29% on a yearly basis to $19.59 billion, much higher than the prediction in the poll for only a 0.20% increase. The imports were boosted by rising purchases of consumer and capital goods, up 19.82% and 13.66%, respectively. Meanwhile, imports of raw materials were down 1.05%. "Higher imports in consumer goods was driven among others by imports of food commodities," Pudji Ismartini, deputy head of Statistics Indonesia, said at Friday's press conference. Indonesia imported 433,000 metric tons of rice in November, up from 312,000 tons in October, followed also by higher imports of sugar and corn in the same month, the bureau's data shows. The government has been trying to keep headline inflation low by ensuring sufficient food supply partly supported by imports. Last month, Indonesia's annual inflation rate accelerated more than expected to 2.86% due to rising food prices, including rice. However, the inflation rate is still within Bank Indonesia's (BI) target range for 2023 at 2% to 4%. Irman Faiz, Bank Danamon's economist, said the November trade balance is still inline with his expectation of a narrowing surplus in the future, and maintained his forecast for a current account deficit at 0.4% of GDP this year. "The current account deficit continues to stay below the historical average, providing a buffer for rupiah from portfolio flows pressure. As a result, we expect BI to keep the policy rate at 6.0% until the Fed decides to pivot," he said. BI's next policy review is on Dec. 21, where expectations are for rates to be kept steady again following last month's on-hold decision. https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/indonesia-nov-exports-down-856-yy-less-than-expected-2023-12-15/

2023-12-15 04:51

Weather affecting highways, trains, bus and ferries Most of China grappling with below freezing temperatures Temperature in Heilongjiang could break 1980 record next week Xi calls for all-out efforts in emergency response BEIJING, Dec 15 (Reuters) - President Xi Jinping called for "all-out" emergency response efforts as a cold wave extended its grip over China on Friday, with temperatures falling below freezing across most of the country and snowfall affecting transport in many places. Temperatures were expected to drop to below minus 40 degrees Celsius (minus 40 degrees Fahrenheit) in parts of the northeastern province of Heilongjiang and in the region of Xinjiang in the northwest, along with Inner Mongolia and the provinces of Gansu and Qinghai, according to forecasts from China's National Meteorological Centre. Xi, who went to the southern Guangxi region on Thursday and Friday, said heavy rain and snow in many parts of the country had affected power supplies, transport and people's lives, the official Xinhua news agency reported. It added he told local governments to refine their precautionary measures and improve contingency plans. The cold wave that began the start of this week was moving through the country from north to south and was expected to take temperatures lower into the weekend, although rain and snow will decrease, the Meteorological Centre said. The city of Yichun in Heilongjiang could see a record low of minus 47.9 C (minus 54.2 F), recorded in January 1980, broken early next week. In Henan province, snowfall and icy roads along with heavy fog caused multiple accidents on several expressways leading to traffic controls. Traffic authorities in Ningxia region said some of its highways have become unsafe and implemented temporary traffic measures as snow fell. Neighbouring Gansu also saw some highways closed and trains suspended, according to state media. On Beijing's outskirts, authorities looking into an accident on a commuter rail line said a train carriage failed to brake while moving downhill, colliding with another car that had stopped because track conditions had deteriorated in the snow. The authorities said 515 people were sent to hospitals for medical checks after the accident, many with bone fractures. In the southern coastal province of Guangdong, maritime authorities had suspended 29 passenger ferry routes as of Friday afternoon, state television said. Ferries and some buses were temporarily suspended early on Friday in Shanghai as the financial hub issued its first cold wave warning of the year, with temperatures as low as minus 6 C (21.2 F) expected at the weekend. In the southwest, sections of many national and provincial highways in Tibetan cities such as Shigatse and Nyingchi were blocked due to snow, ice and low visibility. Beijing and the provinces of Jiangxi and Shanxi have also taken measures to secure vegetable and fruit harvests from freeze damage and diseases, state media said. China lifted its warning for blizzards before dawn on Friday but said heavy snowfall was forecast in parts of Liaoning and Jilin provinces in the northeast as well as in Shandong. In the city of Shenyang in Liaoning, authorities deployed 22,000 workers and over 3,400 machines for snow removal operations. Its observatory has forecast snowfall and strong winds until Saturday. Next week, cold air will continue to flow across the country from north to south, keeping temperatures low in central and eastern regions. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/freezing-temperatures-snow-ice-blanket-china-shutting-highways-2023-12-15/

2023-12-15 04:40

SYDNEY, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Australia runs the risk of insufficient grid capacity by the middle of next decade as coal-fired power plants get retired earlier and replacement falls behind, the energy market operator said on Friday. In a plan to promote clean energy, the Labor government has pledged to invest A$20 billion ($13.40 billion) to modernise the national grid, targeting a cut of 43% in carbon emissions by 2030, and net zero emissions by 2050. In a report, the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) called for urgent investment to replace coal, as about 90% of power generation using the fuel was likely to be retired by 2034. Plants would become less reliable, tougher to maintain and less competitive than renewable supply, it added. "The possibility that replacement generation is not available when coal plants retire is real and growing, and a risk that must be avoided," the operator said. "The sooner firmed renewables are connected, the more secure the energy transition will be." The reference was to usually intermittent weather-dependent sources, such as solar and wind, that are considered to have been "firmed" when backed up by stable sources, such as energy storage or gas-fired plants. The report warned that uncertainty on investment decisions, rising costs and social licence concerns were hobbling progress on projects, however. Hundreds of Australian farmers are refusing to let high-voltage overhead power lines cross their land, which threatens plans to boost renewable generation and cut emissions. Renewables made up almost 40% of the total energy delivered through the National Electricity Market in the first half of 2023. The government targets 82% of electricity to be supplied from renewable sources by 2030. Energy Minister Chris Bowen said the government had the right policy and investment settings as AEMO's draft energy plan reiterated firmed renewable energy was "the cheapest way to ensure a reliable grid". To avoid supply shortages, about 10,000 kms (6,200 miles) of new and upgraded transmission line is required, while capacity from dispatchable storage, hydro and gas-powered generation must quadruple to 74 GW by 2050, the operator said. "(The report) highlights the sheer scale of the energy transition that needs to be delivered in a relatively short timeframe to meet government objectives," Sarah McNamara, chief executive of the Australian Energy Council, said in a statement. ($1=A$1.4923) https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/australian-regulator-flags-power-supply-risks-coal-fired-plants-close-2023-12-15/

2023-12-15 02:57

TOKYO, Dec 15 (Reuters) - Japan's finance minister said on Friday authorities were "firmly watching" currency market moves, after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's comment hinting of an end to rate hikes may have prompted a spike in the yen against the dollar. "I know there are various market talk but the finance ministry won't comment on any of them," Shunichi Suzuki told reporters, when asked about Powell's comment. Powell said on Wednesday the question of when it will be appropriate to cut rates is coming into view. His remarks came after the Fed's latest policy meeting, alongside which the central bank issued forecasts showing policymakers see rates dropping by the end of 2024. "I won't comment on every single day-to-day currency market move," Suzuki added. "Our basic stance is that it is desirable for currencies to move stably reflecting fundamentals." The yen spiked on Thursday following the dollar's tumble, climbing to its highest since July 31 at 140.95 per dollar. It was last traded just above 142 yen to the dollar. Expectations that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) could end negative interest rates in the coming months have driven up the Japanese currency lately, particularly after Governor Kazuo Ueda said it would be even more challenging. Ueda's comment was interpreted as the central bank may struggle to normalise easing policy at a time when the Fed could end its aggressive rate hikes implemented to fight inflation. https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/japan-finmin-suzuki-firmly-monitoring-fx-moves-2023-12-15/

2023-12-15 00:55

BUENOS AIRES, Dec 14 (Reuters) - Argentina's economy likely entered a technical recession - two straight quarters of economic contraction - in the third quarter, a Reuters poll of analysts showed on Thursday, with an expected 0.7% contraction hurt by lower grains sales. The South American country's GDP would have contracted in the July-September period between 0.3% and 1.4%, the forecasts from 12 analysts showed, hit by lower consumption and a drop in industrial activity. The economy shrank 4.9% a quarter earlier. Argentina, which ushered in a new government last week, is battling likely stagflation on the horizon, a toxic mix of triple-digit inflation and recession that will likely squeeze people and push up the poverty rate, already at over 40%. The economic picture also likely darkened further at the end of the year, analysts said, with the political uncertainty that surrounded the October-November elections and recent sharp devaluations of the peso currency. "October-November were complex months for the economy, with the readjustment after the August devaluation and the uncertainty of the elections," said Federico González Rouco, economist at Empiria consultants. He said the Q3 decline was due to a major drought that hit the key grains sector, along with weaker consumption and obstacles to imports that have been snarled by tight capital controls and a lack of foreign currency reserves. Argentina, the third largest economy in Latin America, is going through a complicated financial situation, with 160% inflation, negative net central bank reserves and a "debt bomb" owed to local and global creditors. Argentina's official statistics agency will publish GDP data for the third quarter on Friday at 4 p.m. (1900 GMT). https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentine-economy-likely-already-recession-analysts-say-2023-12-14/

2023-12-15 00:01

Adobe slides after downbeat FY revenue forecast Apple notches record intra-day high Indexes: S&P 500 +0.26%, Nasdaq +0.19%, Dow +0.43% NEW YORK, Dec 14 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks ended firmer on Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average notching its second straight record high close, lifted by optimism that borrowing rates will decrease next year following a dovish pivot by the Federal Reserve. Apple (AAPL.O) hit an intra-day record high before surrendering some of its gains to close up 0.08%. Tesla (TSLA.O) shares surged 4.9%, with about $40 billion worth changing hands. Its turnover was more than double that of Nvidia (NVDA.O), the next most traded company. The heavyweight chipmaker gained 0.5%. Sectors that have underperformed this year also rose. Of the 11 S&P 500 sector indexes, six closed higher, led by energy (.SPNY), up 2.94%, followed by a 2.62% gain in real estate (.SPLRCR). The S&P 500 (.SPX) climbed 0.26% to end at 4,719.55 points. It remains down less than 2% from its record high close in January 2022. The Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC) gained 0.19% at 14,761.56 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 0.43% to 37,248.35 points. Volume on U.S. exchanges was unusually heavy, with 17.1 billion shares traded, compared to an average of 11.1 billion shares over the previous 20 sessions. The PHLX semiconductor index (.SOX) surged 2.7% to close at a record high. The Russell Index (.RUT) of smaller companies also jumped about 2.7%. The Fed left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, as expected, with Chair Jerome Powell saying the historic tightening of monetary policy was likely over, as inflation falls faster than expected, and discussions on cuts in borrowing costs were coming "into view." Investors were closely watching 10-year Treasury yields, which broke below 4% for the first time since early August in the wake of the Fed statement. They were last down at 3.94%. "The market by any measure and any metric is overbought and has been overbought, and a consolidation or a pause has been expected, especially after yesterday's surge," said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial in Charlotte, North Carolina. "While the market celebrates lower rates, it can question why yields are below 4%" as investors weigh the economic outlook, she added. Adobe (ADBE.O) fell 6.35% after the Photoshop maker forecast annual and quarterly revenue below estimates. U.S. retail sales unexpectedly rose in November as the holiday shopping season got off to a brisk start, further alleviating fears of a recession, the Commerce Department reported on Thursday. Advancing issues outnumbered falling ones within the S&P 500 (.AD.SPX) by a 1.9-to-one ratio. The S&P 500 posted 96 new highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq recorded 259 new highs and 64 new lows. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/futures-rise-after-feds-dovish-pivot-2023-12-14/