2023-11-28 05:28

Euro rises to highest since mid-August Sterling, Swiss franc hit highest since September U.S. home prices rise in year to September U.S. consumer confidence gains in November NEW YORK, Nov 28 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar sank to its lowest in more than three months on Tuesday as investors continued to take the view that growth in the world's largest economy is starting to slow down, with the market starting to price in a rate cut by the first half of the year. U.S. rate futures were pricing in a 33% chance of a rate cut in March, rising to a roughly 65% probability in May, according to the CME's FedWatch tool. Those odds were at 21% and roughly 50% late on Monday. The dollar extended losses after Fed Governor Christopher Waller, a hawkish policymaker, flagged a possible rate cut in the months ahead. If the decline in inflation continues "for several more months ... three months, four months, five months ... we could start lowering the policy rate just because inflation is lower," he said. The dollar index , which measures its value against six major currencies, fell as far as 102.60, the lowest since mid-August. It was last down 0.3% at 102.82. The index is on track for a loss of 3.6% in November, its worst performance since November 2022. "The dollar bounced over the summer, with the help of divergence -- the outperformance of the U.S. economy. Now the dollar is weakening on the new convergence," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist, at Bannockburn Forex in New York. "It's not that Europe or China is looking much better. But they're slowing down and the U.S. looks like it's slowing down." Tuesday's U.S. data, however, showed mixed results. U.S. consumer confidence rose in November after three straight monthly declines, a survey showed. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index increased to 102.0 this month from a downwardly revised 99.1 in October. At the same time, U.S. annual home price growth accelerated again in September. Home prices were up 6.1% on a year-over-year basis, up from an upwardly revised 5.8% increase in August. However, the Richmond Fed manufacturing index dropped into negative territory at -5 in November. In other currencies, the euro rose to a 3-1/2-month peak of $1.1009 . It last changed hands at $1.0981, up 0.3%. Sterling also gained, climbing to its highest since Sept. 1. The pound was last up 0.4% at $1.2685. Traders are now eyeing the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index - the Fed's preferred measure of inflation - this week for more confirmation that inflation is slowing. PCE tops off a slew of other key economic events this week, including flash inflation data from major euro zone economies, with bloc-wide data due Thursday, Chinese purchasing managers' index (PMI) data and an OPEC+ decision on crude output. The dollar fell 0.8% to 147.49 yen , with the Japanese currency continuing its recovery from the brink of 152 per dollar earlier in the month. The dollar also slid 0.2% to 0.8762 Swiss francs, its lowest level since the start of September, and the Australian dollar briefly touched a near four-month high of US$0.6665. The New Zealand dollar hit its highest since August at US$0.6147. It was last at US$0.6127, up 0.5%. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has its monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, where it is expected to keep interest rates steady at 5.50% for the fourth straight time. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin rose 2.7% to $38,228 . ======================================================== Currency bid prices at 3:43PM (2043 GMT) https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/dollar-hangs-three-month-low-traders-eye-pce-data-2023-11-28/

2023-11-28 05:23

TOKYO, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Japan's top business lobby Keidanren will discuss at next month's executive meeting the potential negative impact of the yen's weakness on the economy. Keidanren, which is comprised of major companies including big automakers and electronics firms, traditionally favoured a weak yen and have called on the government to stave off sharp yen rises that make Japan's exports less competitive overseas. Any discussion on the demerits of a weak yen by Keidanren would highlight a shift in how Japan's business sector views the currency's movement and its impact on the economy. The informal executive meeting, to be held on Dec. 4, reflects growing concern by some member companies over those demerits, and will likely affect the lobby's policy proposals in the future, the Yomiuri said without citing sources. The shift in Keidanren's stance could heighten calls by the business sector for the Bank of Japan to end ultra-low interest rates that have been blamed for accelerating the yen's decline, the newspaper said. An official at Keidanren confirmed to Reuters that the executives' meeting will discuss the weak yen as part of a broad range of topics including rising inflation. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/japan-business-lobby-discuss-negative-impact-weak-yen-yomiuri-2023-11-28/

2023-11-28 05:09

MUMBAI, Nov 28 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee was unresponsive to strength in its Asian peers on Tuesday and hovered in a tight range to kick off the last trading week of November. The rupee was at 83.3825 as of 10:35 a.m. IST, little changed from its close at 83.3675 on Friday. Indian markets were shut on Monday on account of a local holiday. The dollar index last quoted at 103.15, hovering close to its weakest level in nearly 3 months after slipping overnight following weaker-than-expected home sales data in the United States. The 10-year U.S. treasury yield fell to a low of 4.38% in New York on Monday and last quoted slightly higher in Asia. Asian currencies climbed with the Korean won leading gains. The rupee is unlikely to see much movement until the release of U.S. inflation data later this week, a foreign exchange trader at a private bank said. Equity-related inflows and month-end exporter dollar sales may offer some support to the rupee, the trader added. MSCI increasing India's weight in its Emerging Market India index, effective from Nov. 30, is expected to drive inflows of about $1.5 billion, according to Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research. Market participants will be keeping an eye on the OPEC+ meeting and U.S. inflation data to assess the overall weakness in the dollar, said Arnob Biswas, head of foreign exchange research at SMC Global Securities. The U.S. will report personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation data for October on Thursday. Core PCE inflation is expected to moderate to 0.2% month-on-month, down from 0.3% in September, according to a Reuters poll. A weaker-than-expected inflation print could cement bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve is done hiking policy rates. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/rupee-stands-pat-equity-flows-us-data-watched-2023-11-28/

2023-11-28 02:55

MUMBAI, Nov 28 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is expected to open little changed on Tuesday, unable to take advantage of the broad up move in other Asian peers in the wake of a fall in U.S. Treasury yields. Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open mostly unchanged from 83.3675 on Friday. The Indian FX and money markets were shut on Monday. The Korean won climbed 0.8%, with other Asian currencies up between 0.1% to 0.3%, and the dollar index dipped to 103.08, its lowest level in nearly three months. The dollar index is down more than 3% in November. The rupee is just shy of its lifetime low of 83.42. The rupee "has not participated at all in this drawdown" on the dollar and "there is no reason to think it will today, or for that matter, this week", a forex trader at a bank said. A lack of hedging interest from exporters, slowdown in portfolio inflows, and persistent interest from importers to hedge their dollar liabilities are reasons for the rupee's underperformance, according to market participants. Asian currencies rose on Tuesday, helped by U.S. Treasury yields resuming their fall on the back of weak data. The 10-year U.S. yield dropped nearly ten basis points on Monday amid a bigger-than-expected drop in U.S. October home sales. The September figures were revised lower. The weaker numbers were attributed to the run-up in the long bond yield during these months, DBS Research said. There was more disappointing U.S. data on Monday. The November Dallas Fed manufacturing index fell 0.7 to -19.9, with new orders "particularly weak", according to ANZ. The focus this week will be on the U.S. October core PCE data on Thursday and the ISM manufacturing print on the following day. KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 83.41; onshore one-month forward premium at 5.5 paise ** Dollar index down at 103.08 ** Brent crude futures up 0.3% at $80.3 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.3980%, ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors bought a net $172mln worth of Indian shares on Nov. 23 ** NSDL data shows foreign investors sold a net $204.5mln worth of Indian bonds on Nov. 23 https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/rupee-likely-sidestep-rally-asia-fx-fuelled-by-us-yields-2023-11-28/

2023-11-27 23:47

Nov 27 (Reuters) - A U.S. appeals court on Monday handed 3M (MMM.N), Corteva Inc (CTVA.N) subsidiary E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Co and other manufactures of toxic so-called "forever chemicals" a big win in their fight against legal liability for the substances, rejecting a lower court's ruling that would have allowed about 11.8 million Ohio residents to sue the companies as a group. The Cincinnati, Ohio-based 6th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals vacated a lower court's approval of the massive class action, which included virtually every resident of Ohio and put considerable legal pressure on the chemical manufacturers to settle the plaintiffs' claims. The court found that lead plaintiff Kevin Hardwick filed too broad a complaint against the manufacturers, and had not shown per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances, or PFAS, found in his body could be traced directly to defendants such as units of 3M, DuPont and others. The appeals court instructed the lower court to dismiss Hardwick's lawsuit, which had aimed to force the companies to pay for studies analyzing the health impacts of PFAS. The chemicals are used in a wide range of consumer products including non-stick pans and clothing and have been tied to cancer and other diseases. The lawsuit also sought to establish a fund to monitor Ohio residents for health impacts from PFAS exposure. Representatives for the defendants and for the plaintiffs did not immediately respond to requests for comment. The chemicals are often referred to as forever chemicals because they do not easily break down in nature or in the human body. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/3m-dupont-defeat-massive-class-action-over-forever-chemicals-2023-11-27/

2023-11-27 23:45

Retailers gain amid Cyber Monday Affirm Holdings jumps on "buy now, pay later" option Crown Castle up as Elliott pushes for changes Indexes down: Dow 0.16%, S&P 0.20%, Nasdaq 0.07% NEW YORK, Nov 27 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks edged lower on Monday, with investors taking a post-Thanksgiving pause as the holiday shopping season kicked in to high gear and retailers lured bargain hunters with Cyber Monday deals. All three major U.S. stock indexes ended the session modestly in the red. "Markets are taking a breather to digest these gains we’ve seen in November," said Tom Hainlin, national investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management in Minneapolis. "We’re at the higher end of a trading range we’ve been in for some time." Online shopping deals as part of Cyber Monday are expected to entice shoppers to spend a record $12 billion, according to Adobe Analytics, in the latest upbeat sign regarding the health of the American consumer, whose spending is responsible for about 70% of the U.S. GDP. "Coming off four weeks of very strong and positive market activity we’re seeing investors take a bit of a breather and focus on data," said Greg Bassuk, chief executive officer at AXS Investments in New York. "This week all eyes will be focused on additional inflation data as well as consumer confidence and spending to determine if Main Street has kept up with Wall Street." Resilience of the consumer and the tightness of the labor market amid signs of a dampening economy have many market-observers digesting the possibility that while the Federal Reserve has reached the end of its tightening cycle, it might keep restrictive policy rates in place for longer than expected. Financial markets have priced in a 96.8% likelihood that the central bank will leave its Fed funds target rate unchanged at next month's meeting, with the possibility of a rate cut starting to gain ground in mid-2024, according to CME's FedWatch tool. On the economic front, a larger than expected drop in new home sales added to the subdued tone. Later in the week, market participants look to the Commerce Department's second take on third-quarter GDP expected on Wednesday, to be followed on Friday with its broad-ranging Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report. Remarks from Federal Reserve policymakers later in the week will also be parsed for clues regarding the duration of the central bank's restrictive policy. "We expect that (the Fed) will continue to be cautious about concluding that they’ve reached the end of rate hikes," Hainlin added. "We’re close to - if not at - the peak rate, so the debate is how long rates will stay there, and when or if they’ll cut rates in 2024." The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 56.68 points, or 0.16%, to 35,333.47, the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 8.91 points, or 0.20%, to 4,550.43 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) dropped 9.83 points, or 0.07%, to 14,241.02. Among the 11 major sectors in the S&P 500, healthcare (.SPXHC) and industrials (.SPLRCI) suffered the largest percentage drops, while real estate (.SPLRCR) and consumer discretionary (.SPLRCD) gained the most. Amid the Cyber Monday fervor, Affirm Holdings (AFRM.O) surged 12.0%, as the payment platform's "buy now, pay later" option was seen hitting an all-time high, boosting the online holiday sales. Online gift platforms Etsy (ETSY.O) and Shopify were up 3.0% and 4.9%, respectively. Elsewhere, Crown Castle International (CCI.N) advanced 3.4% as activist investor Elliott Investment Management sought executive and board changes at the wireless tower owner. GE HealthCare (GEHC.O) declined 3.5% following UBS's downgrade of the medical devices company's stock to "sell" from "neutral." Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.25-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.63-to-1 ratio favored decliners. The S&P 500 posted 38 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 84 new highs and 79 new lows. Volume on U.S. exchanges was 9.25 billion shares, compared with the 10.42 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/wall-st-futures-edge-lower-investor-await-data-policy-cues-2023-11-27/