2024-07-26 05:47
BEIJING, July 26 (Reuters) - Typhoon Gaemi lashed towns on China's coastal Fujian province on Friday with heavy rains and strong winds as the most powerful storm to hit the country this year began its widely watched trek into the populous interior. The storm, which has already killed dozens of people as it swept through Taiwan and worsened seasonal rains in the Philippines, has affected almost 630,000 people in China's Fujian so far, with almost half of them having to be relocated, the official Xinhua news agency reported. Gaemi was still packing winds of up to 100.8 kph (62.6 mph) near its centre, easing slightly from 118.8 kph logged on Thursday night when it landed in the Fujian city of Putian. While Gaemi has been downgraded as a tropical storm due to the slower wind speeds, its vast cloud-bands remain a significant flood risk, particularly to rivers in central China already elevated due to an earlier bout of summer rains. Scientists have warned that global warming was worsening tropical storms, making them less frequent but much more intense, according to a report published on Friday. Hours ahead of the typhoon's arrival, the Standing Committee of the Communist Party's politburo, helmed by President Xi Jinping, held a special meeting on flood control and urged cadres across the country to protect lives. Efforts must be made to prevent any breaches of major rivers and the collapse of large and key medium-sized reservoirs, according to a readout of the meeting published by Xinhua. Due to the typhoon, 72 townships across Fujian recorded an accumulated precipitation exceeding 250 mm (9.8 inches), with the highest reaching 512.8 mm, local weather bureaus said. By late Friday, Gaemi is expected to reach Jiangxi province, home to Poyang lake, China's largest freshwater lake. On Thursday, Gaemi swept through Taiwan with super-gales of up to 227 kph (141 mph) and dumped over 1,800 mm of rain in the island's southern mountains, flooding several cities and towns. It injured more than 500 people and killed five. The typhoon also sank a freighter off the Taiwanese coast and killed 32 people in the Philippines, where its capital Manila declared a "state of calamity" after widespread flooding. A marine tanker carrying industrial fuel also sank in rough seas off the Philippines. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/typhoon-gaemi-lashes-southeast-china-after-pounding-taiwan-flooding-philippines-2024-07-26/
2024-07-26 05:43
SINGAPORE, July 26 (Reuters) - Climate change is driving changes in rainfall patterns across the world, scientists said in a paper published on Friday, which could also be intensifying typhoons and other tropical storms. Taiwan, the Philippines and then China were lashed by the year's most powerful typhoon this week, with schools, businesses and financial markets shut as wind speeds surged up to 227 kph (141 mph). On China's eastern coast, hundreds of thousands of people were evacuated ahead of landfall on Thursday. Stronger tropical storms are part of a wider phenomenon of weather extremes driven by higher temperatures, scientists say. Researchers led by Zhang Wenxia at the China Academy of Sciences studied historical meteorological data and found about 75% of the world's land area had seen a rise in "precipitation variability" or wider swings between wet and dry weather. Warming temperatures have enhanced the ability of the atmosphere to hold moisture, which is causing wider fluctuations in rainfall, the researchers said in a paper , opens new tab published by the Science journal. "(Variability) has increased in most places, including Australia, which means rainier rain periods and drier dry periods," said Steven Sherwood, a scientist at the Climate Change Research Centre at the University of New South Wales, who was not involved in the study. "This is going to increase as global warming continues, enhancing the chances of droughts and/or floods." FEWER, BUT MORE INTENSE, STORMS Scientists believe that climate change is also reshaping the behaviour of tropical storms, including typhoons, making them less frequent but more powerful. "I believe higher water vapour in the atmosphere is the ultimate cause of all of these tendencies toward more extreme hydrologic phenomena," Sherwood told Reuters. Typhoon Gaemi, which first made landfall in Taiwan on Wednesday, was the strongest to hit the island in eight years. While it is difficult to attribute individual weather events to climate change, models predict that global warming makes typhoons stronger, said Sachie Kanada, a researcher at Japan's Nagoya University. "In general, warmer sea surface temperature is a favourable condition for tropical cyclone development," she said. In its "blue paper" on climate change published this month, China said the number of typhoons in the Northwest Pacific and South China Sea had declined significantly since the 1990s, but they were getting stronger. Taiwan also said in its climate change report published in May that climate change was likely to reduce the overall number of typhoons in the region while making each one more intense. The decrease in the number of typhoons is due to the uneven pattern of ocean warming, with temperatures rising faster in the western Pacific than the east, said Feng Xiangbo, a tropical cyclone research scientist at the University of Reading. Water vapour capacity in the lower atmosphere is expected to rise by 7% for each 1 degree Celsius increase in temperatures, with tropical cyclone rainfall in the United States surging by as much as 40% for each single degree rise, he said. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/climate-change-causing-more-change-rainfall-fiercer-typhoons-scientists-say-2024-07-26/
2024-07-26 05:25
NEW YORK, July 26 (Reuters) - The dollar ended little changed on Friday, pressured by a fall in Treasury yields after a tame U.S. inflation report that investors said kept the runway for the expected September Federal Reserve easing clear. The Commerce Department's June personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index nudged up 0.1%, as expected, after being unchanged in May, underscoring an improving inflation environment. Year over year, the PCE price index climbed 2.5% after rising 2.6% in May, also in line with forecasts by economists polled by Reuters. The Fed closely tracks the PCE price measures for monetary policy, and subsiding inflation pressures could help officials who are meeting next week gain confidence that inflation is moving toward the U.S. central bank's 2% target. Steve Englander, head of G10 FX research at Standard Chartered Bank in New York, said that PCE data released a day earlier alongside a surprisingly strong 2.8% growth rate reading on second quarter GDP prompted last minute anxiety about hotter monthly data. So the rise reported Friday was a relief compared to Thursday's number showing core PCE prices rising at a 2.9% rate. "The number was good enough," Englander said. "It wasn't a home run but compared to yesterday markets said 'yep nothing to worry about here, it doesn't really derail September and they (the Fed) weren't going to cut in July anyway. So life goes on.'" Meanwhile, the yen has dominated currency markets this month after surging to a near three-month high of 151.945 per dollar on Thursday. It started the month at a 38-year low of 161.96 before Bank of Japan currency intervention and expectations that the Bank of Japan would deliver a hawkish policy tweak at its meeting next week flushed out yen carry-trade shorts. The Federal Open Market Committee meets July 30 and 31, the same days as the BOJ. It is expected to hold borrowing costs steady but traders continue to bet the Fed will cut at its next meeting in September and see up to two more rate cuts this year. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell 5.4 basis points, while two-year note yields, which typically move in step with interest-rate expectations, were down 5.6 basis points after the report. The Bank of Japan, on the other hand, may raise rates next week, with markets pricing in a 64% chance of a 10 bps hike . Expectations of narrowing U.S.-Japan interest rate differentials have reduced the confidence in using low-yielding yen as a funding currency for investments in other economies. It still pays to be short yen, but increased volatility makes it harder to hold on to those positions. "What you're seeing is Japanese investors and foreign investors leaving the Japanese market and investing in global tech, predominantly. So unless whatever the BOJ does persuades (investors) to come back into the Japanese asset market, it's very hard to make the case that the yen is in the midst of a turning point for now," he said. Dollar/yen weakened 0.1% to 153.77 in late trade. The euro went up 0.13% to $1.0858. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of six currencies including the yen and the euro, fell 0.04% to 104.29. Sterling strengthened 0.17% to $1.2873. That price is well below the one-year high of $1.3044 hit last week, with traders pricing a 50% chance of the Bank of England cutting rates when it meets next week. Markets are anticipating 51 bps of cuts this year. Dollar/Canada inched up 0.05% to 1.3811. Against the Swiss franc , dollar strengthened 0.19% at 0.8830. The Australian dollar strengthened 0.28% to US$0.6556 and kiwi strengthened 0.1% to US$0.5892. The dollar firmed 0.07% against the Chinese yuan to 7.2502 yuan. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin gained 3.32% at $67,440.00. Ethereum rose 3.17% at $3,253.30. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/yen-heads-strongest-week-3-months-carry-trades-unwind-2024-07-26/
2024-07-26 04:34
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin Buckland An element of calm has returned to markets as a wild week winds down, with European and U.S. stock futures pointing overall higher on Friday following the frenetic selling of the previous two days. Asia-Pacific equity benchmarks were overall flat to higher, with some weakness in Chinese markets contrasting with robust gains for Australia and South Korea. Taiwan was an unhappy exception, though, with a 3.4% slide - a delayed reaction to the global tech rout after markets there were shuttered the previous two days by a typhoon. Currency markets stabilised as well, with the yen finding a home around 154 per dollar following its surge from a three-decade low near 162 just over two weeks ago. On Thursday, it reached a nearly two-month peak of 151.945 per dollar. Investors were frantically unwinding long-held bearish yen bets and/or seeking a safe haven play with the Japanese currency, spurred by a spate of weak U.S. economic data, the global equity sell-off, and growing speculation of a Bank of Japan rate hike next week - not to mention the helping hand of some deft currency intervention by Tokyo. IG analyst Tony Sycamore said there's "a brick wall of demand" for dollars around 152 yen that he expects to hold firm until Wednesday of next week, when both the BOJ and Fed decide policy. "After that, all bets are off." The dollar also drew a modicum of macro-related support from faster-than-expected U.S. GDP growth in data released overnight, alleviating fears that the economic expansion was at risk of ending abruptly. However, a cooling of price pressures keeps bets alive for a September Fed cut, and the dollar is edging lower against the likes of the euro and sterling heading into the European morning. There's little in the way of economic data or earnings reports to shake up markets in European hours, but the U.S. PCE deflators - a favourite inflation measure of the Fed's - could inject some additional volatility before the weekend. Key developments that could influence markets on Friday: -US PCE price index (June) -US earnings include 3M, Bristol Myers Squibb, Colgate Palmolive Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/global-markets-view-europe-2024-07-26/
2024-07-26 00:49
July 25 (Reuters) - French utility EDF could impose production restrictions at its Golfech nuclear power plant from July 31 due to the high temperature forecasts on the Garonne river, the company said in a notice. The utility uses water from the river to cool the two reactors at the plant. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/edf-could-curb-output-golfech-nuclear-plant-due-hot-weather-2024-07-26/
2024-07-26 00:45
HOUSTON, July 26 (Reuters) - Oil futures fell about 1.5% on Friday, finishing the week lower on declining Chinese demand and hopes of a Gaza ceasefire agreement that could ease Middle East tensions and accompanying supply concerns. Brent crude settled down $1.24, or 1.5%, at $81.13 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude ended $1.12, or 1.4%, lower at $77.16 a barrel. For the week, Brent was trading down more than 1% while WTI fell beyond 3%. "Yesterday’s better-than-expected U.S. GDP growth figures initially supported the crude market," said George Khoury, global head of education and research at CFI. "However, these gains were overshadowed by concerns about declining Chinese oil demand." Data released last week showing that China's total fuel oil imports , opens new tab dropped 11% in the first half of 2024 have raised concern about the wider demand outlook in China. "The Chinese demand situation is going down the tubes here and crude oil prices are going down with it," said Bob Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho in New York. China's economy , opens new tab is threatening to enter a deflationary cycle, where prices will fall because of falling demand, Yawger said. "And that is about the worst possible scenario for a country that is the largest importer of crude oil on the planet," he said. Meanwhile, demand from the world's top oil consumer was also expected to ease as U.S. refiners are preparing to cut back production as the end of the summer driving season in early September nears. The nation's second largest refiner, Valero Energy (VLO.N) , opens new tab, said on Thursday its 14 refineries would run at 92% of combined capacity in the third quarter. Valero's refineries ran at 94% in the second quarter. In the Middle East, hopes of a ceasefire in Gaza have been gaining momentum. A ceasefire has been the subject of negotiations for months, but U.S. officials believe the parties are closer than ever to an agreement for a six-week ceasefire in exchange for the release by Hamas of female, sick, elderly and wounded hostages. Baker Hughes' count of U.S. oil drilling rigs, an early indicator of future output, increased by five to 482 this week and by three in July, raising the number of rigs for the first month since March. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-edges-up-strong-us-gdp-data-asia-economic-woes-limit-gains-2024-07-26/
