2024-07-18 11:24

LUCKNOW, India, July 18 (Reuters) - At least two people were killed and 20 injured after several coaches of a passenger train jumped the tracks in India's northern state of Uttar Pradesh on Thursday, authorities said. TV visuals showed coaches of the Chandigarh-Dibrugarh Express, which connects India's northern states to the eastern state of Assam, on their sides along the tracks, with passengers sitting outside with their luggage. The derailment occurred in Gonda district, more than 100 km (60 miles) from state capital Lucknow. A team of doctors was at the site treating the injured before they were moved to a hospital, the state's relief commissioner said in a statement. The incident occurred around 2:30 p.m. (0900 GMT) and initial reports said around five coaches had derailed, railways spokesman Pankaj Singh told the ANI news agency. "Our first priority is to complete relief and rescue work there as quickly as possible," Singh said. At least 15 people died and dozens were injured last month when a freight train smashed into the rear of a stationary passenger train in the eastern state of West Bengal. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/ten-coaches-passenger-train-derail-northern-india-tv-channels-say-2024-07-18/

2024-07-18 11:22

BEIJING/LONDON, July 18 (Reuters) - Russia's Nornickel is in talks with several Chinese battery companies to build a plant jointly producing nickel material from Russian semi-finished products, three sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters. CNGR Advanced Material (300919.SZ) , opens new tab and Brunp Recycling, a subsidiary of Chinese battery giant CATL (300750.SZ) , opens new tab, are among the firms approached by Nornickel. The metals giant is in the midst of trying to move significant amounts of production away from Russia to major consumer China, bidding to circumvent Western sanctions against Moscow over its war with Ukraine. If the project advances, it would be the third such major initiative by Nornickel this year. It is in talks to move its copper smelting to China. The company also plans to build a platinum group metals refinery in Bahrain. According to one of the sources, the Hunan province in southern China, where many of Chinese battery sector firms are based, is considered as the main location, however no final decision has been made. The plant would produce nickel sulphate, a form of nickel used to make batteries for electric vehicles, from Russian nickel matte, a semi-finished product, another source said. Nornickel is ready to supply 50,000 metric tons of nickel a year, about a quarter of its current annual production, to the future plant, the source added. The company produced 209,000 tons of nickel in 2023, 6% of the global output. Nornickel and CNGR declined to comment. Brunp did not reply to a Reuters' request for comment. Nornickel, a major producer of high-grade nickel, said in March that it would seek ways to integrate its nickel into the global battery sector as it reshuffles sales to ease the effect of sanctions against Russia on its own business. It did not disclose further details at that time. Until Russia was sanctioned by the West in 2022, Nornickel sold mainly refined Russia-made products. However, sanctions against Moscow prompted some Western producers to avoid Russian metal and complicated payments, prompting Nornickel to try to transfer some final stages of its production outside Russia. Two sources said the Chinese firms are wary of the risks around the sanctions backdrop and may not be willing to work with Nornickel due to exposure to the global export market - with a chance that Western buyers might turn down supplies if they have a direct connection to Russia. The global nickel market is oversupplied with primary output estimated at 3.55 million tons this year, and China's battery industry often sources its nickel from top producer Indonesia, accounting for 42% of global primary supplies. Nornickel's production will be a guaranteed source of long-term raw material for those Chinese firms who do not own nickel deposits in Indonesia, one source said. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/nornickel-talks-build-china-nickel-plant-battery-sector-sources-say-2024-07-18/

2024-07-18 10:12

MUMBAI, July 18 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee fell on Thursday, coming within a whisker of breaching its record low, on corporate outflows and oil companies' dollar bids. The rupee settled at 83.6500 against the U.S. dollar, down from its close at 83.5825 in the previous session. It had hit its all-time low of 83.6650 on June 20. The currency weakened despite broad declines in the greenback and U.S. bond yields. The dollar index was up slightly on Thursday after declining to a four-month low of 103.6 in the previous session. Rising odds of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have weighed on the greenback and U.S. yields, offering some relief to Asian currencies. Interest rate futures predict a Fed rate cut in September and a total of two-and-a-half rate cuts this year. Recent weakness in the rupee is more of the currency "catching up" with its Asian peers, a trader at a foreign bank said. The rupee has outperformed most Asian peers this year, slipping 0.5% against the dollar while other currencies have fallen 1.5% to 5%. Traders say the Reserve Bank of India's absorption of dollar inflows has limited gains for the rupee. "INR may shift from its outperformance year-to-date to now underperforming some FX pairs if the recent US Dollar weakness trend is sustained, due in part to the central bank's activist hand in the FX market," Michael Wan, a senior currency analyst at MUFG Bank said in a note. On Thursday, dollar-rupee forward premiums rose, aided by the decline in U.S. bond yields. The 1-year implied yield gained 2 basis points to 1.75%, its highest since February. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/india-rupee-ends-just-shy-record-low-companies-dollar-bids-2024-07-18/

2024-07-18 10:04

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike Dolan Another impressive earnings beat from Taiwan's chipmaking giant TSMC (2330.TW) , opens new tab may help calm this week's tech stock rout, as the earnings season turns toward wobbly megacaps with an update from Netflix on Thursday - just as the European Central Bank meets. An increasingly volatile week on Wall Street has seen a wild rotation from pricey tech giants to re-invigorated small caps (.RUT) , opens new tab. As Deutsche Bank notes, the out-performance of the Russell 2000 over the Nasdaq (.IXIC) , opens new tab in the past five trading days has been the biggest since the former index began in 1979. But nerves about the chip giants were jangled further by reports of new U.S. curbs on the sector and White House hopeful Donald Trump's doubt about U.S. military defence of Taiwan. Wall Street's semiconductor index lost more than $500 billion in value on Wednesday in its worst session since 2020 after a report said the United States was mulling tighter restrictions on exports of advanced chip technology to China. Artificial Intelligence heavyweight Nvidia (NVDA.O) , opens new tab fell almost 7% during the session. Although Dutch chipmaking equipment provider ASML (ASML.AS) , opens new tab, which slumped 13% yesterday, continued to struggle in Europe, TSMC's update may help steady the ship. U.S. listed shares of TSMC rebounded 3% on Thursday after the firm - a major Apple (AAPL.O) , opens new tab and Nvidia supplier - beat profit forecasts and said its revenue in the current quarter will increase by as much as 34%. That, in turn, has seen a rebound in related U.S. stocks, with Nasdaq futures up 0.5% ahead of today's bell and S&500 futures up too. The VIX volatility gauge (.VIX) , opens new tab has ebbed from its highest level since May. Streaming bellwether Netflix (NFLX.O) , opens new tab tops another packed earnings diary later. Stocks around the world were similarly in foment, with tech-heavy Japanese (.N225) , opens new tab and South Korean (.KS11) , opens new tab benchmarks falling overnight - with the Nikkei the standout loser with a drop of 2.2%, exaggerated by the week's yen surge. On the back of a weaker dollar more generally, which sent the DXY index (.DXY) , opens new tab to four-month lows before stabilising today, dollar/yen skidded to its lowest in over a month amid jitters around another suspected round of yen-buying Bank of Japan intervention on Wednesday. BOJ data suggests it may have bought nearly 6 trillion yen ($38.37 billion) last week and traders said this week's moves bore the hallmarks of further intervention - or at least of markets easily spooked by that prospect. Chinese equities (.CSI300) , opens new tab, (.HSI) , opens new tab held in positive territory and the yuan froze, however, as details of the ruling Communist party's "Third Plenum" started to emerge in the wake of another big miss in second-quarter Chinese GDP growth earlier this week. A communique issued on Thursday after the meeting said China will enhance the role of market mechanisms in the economy, create a fairer and more dynamic market environment and optimise the efficiency of resource allocation. European stocks (.STOXX) , opens new tab also got a foothold, with Britain's FTSE100 (.FTSE) , opens new tab outstripping the rest, helped by news of slowing UK wage growth in the three months to May and as the pound slipped from 1-year peaks back under $1.30. European macro markets now await the ECB's rate decision, where the central bank is expected to keep policy unchanged while signalling its next move is set to be a cut. Markets bet the ECB's second rate cut of the year will come in September and the euro retreated slightly from Wednesday's four-month peak. A September ECB cut would match where futures markets now firmly place the Federal Reserve's first move, with top Fed officials on Wednesday signalling it's "closer" to cutting rates given inflation's improved trajectory and a labor market in better balance. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, New York Fed boss John Williams said: "We're actually going to learn a lot between July and September." The comments came as U.S. retail and industry readouts for June this week came in better than forecast, pushing the Atlanta Fed's closely-watched "GDPNow" estimate up another couple of notches to 2.7%. But helped by decent demand at Thursday's 20-year Treasury bond auction, 10-year yields fell to four-month lows at 4.14%. Key developments that should provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Thursday: * European Central Bank policy decision, press conference from ECB President Christine Lagarde; South Africa Reserve Bank policy decision * Philadelphia Federal Reserve's July manufacturing survey, U.S. weekly jobless claims, May TIC data on Treasury holdings and flows * US corporate earnings: Netflix, Blackstone, M&T Bank, Textron, Snap-On, Cintas, Marsh & McLennan, Abbott Laboratories, KeyCorp, DR Horton, Domino's Pizza, PPG, Intuitive Surgical * Fed Board Governor Michelle Bowman, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Dallas Fed chief Lorie Logan all speak * Donald Trump speaks to the Republican National Convention * European Parliament votes on new European Commission President * European political leaders meet at EPC summit in Oxford * US Treasury auctions 10-year inflation-protected securities, 4-week bills Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/global-markets-view-usa-2024-07-18/

2024-07-18 07:59

FRANKFURT, July 18 (Reuters) - Serbia will give Mercedes-Benz (MBGn.DE) , opens new tab, Volkswagen (VOWG_p.DE) , opens new tab and Stellantis (STLAM.MI) , opens new tab the opportunity to purchase lithium for car batteries as the nation prioritises European over Chinese carmakers, its president said. "The EU needs lithium and we want to strengthen our ties with the EU," President Aleksandar Vucic told German daily Handelsblatt in an interview published on Thursday. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will travel to Serbia for talks with Vucic on Friday, with critical raw materials for battery supply chains and electric cars serving as a key theme. Serbia has reinstated a licence for Rio Tinto (RIO.L) , opens new tab, (RIO.AX) , opens new tab to develop Europe's biggest lithium mine in a potential boost to the continent's electric vehicle industry. Vucic told Handelsblatt that Serbia is eyeing an annual lithium output of 58,000 tonnes, enough for about 1.1 million electric vehicles or about 17% of the European market. Procurement deals would be contingent on the largest part of further lithium processing and battery production taking place in Serbia, he added. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/serbia-eyes-lithium-deals-with-mercedes-stellantis-vw-president-says-2024-07-18/

2024-07-18 07:56

NAPERVILLE, Illinois, July 17 (Reuters) - Grain industry participants in recent years have criticized the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s trendline U.S. corn yields since they have been too high versus final yields for five consecutive years now. Another complaint is that USDA’s trend corn yields have been exceeding previously observed records, and the 2024 trend of 181 bushels per acre follows suit, sitting some 3.7 bpa above last year’s all-time high. But speculators last week built record-short positions in Chicago-traded corn, and new-crop December corn recently flirted with sub-$4-per-bushel, down about 14% over the last two months. Mild weather in the Corn Belt this month has encouraged the price pressure. This market action suggests traders are finally supportive of USDA’s lofty yield ideas, and potentially bracing for something even bigger than 181 bpa. But what does that look like? BASIC SCENARIOS If every U.S. state matched its all-time maximum corn yield in 2024, national yield would land at 188 bpa if incorporating the harvested area USDA published at the end of June. That would add nearly 600 million bushels (4%) to the current production estimate. But states never achieve records all at once. If every state notches its second-best yield of the last decade, that puts national yield at 184 bpa, and assuming third-best reduces national to 180.5. If each state's lowest two yields from the past five years are kicked out and the rest averaged, national yield comes in at 182.8 bpa. This is perhaps the most reasonable among the scenarios suggested thus far, implying that 181 is certainly doable in the right circumstances. However, struggles usually ensue somewhere in the Corn Belt, and these penalties can add up. This is best demonstrated looking at 2021 versus 2023, the highest two yielding years at 176.7 and 177.3, respectively. The 2021 season still holds the record corn yield for 12 states, including Iowa and Nebraska, and those 12 account for about 40% of total production. Only five states worth 11% of production set their records last year, including Indiana and Ohio, but last year’s national yield edged 2021. Drought in the northwest Corn Belt hit the Dakotas and northern Minnesota hard in 2021, dragging down the huge strides made in other states. Kansas was the only major state notably off average corn yield in 2023. Right now, U.S. corn conditions for most major states are at least near or above the recent mid-July averages. But Minnesota is a few points lower, Wisconsin, Texas and Tennessee are at least 10 percentage points off average and North Carolina is nearly 50 points below. LOOKING TO AUGUST Analysts are not afraid of big yields if conditions are right. Average trade guesses during 2018 and 2020 exceeded 180 bpa, and some analysts even saw the possibility for 178 back in 2014. USDA’s statistics service will publish its first survey-based estimates for U.S. corn and soybean yields on Aug. 12, replacing the trend yields from the World Board. The August crop production estimates will now include necessary corn and soy acreage adjustments, which USDA announced last fall. U.S. corn crop conditions, some 68% good-to-excellent as of Sunday, are the week’s best since 2020 and just above the week’s decade average of 67%. The last time USDA’s August corn yield was higher than in July was in 2020, and that also marked USDA’s highest-ever monthly yield print at 181.8 bpa. In the last decade, August corn yield has come in higher than in July whenever mid-July conditions were 69% good-to-excellent or better, so 2024 narrowly misses that cut. But relatively mild weather is expected for the rest of July, which could make the case for a strong August yield. The average trade guesses for August corn yield were too high in the last three years, but they were too low versus USDA’s published number in the six years prior to that. Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/does-market-finally-agree-with-usda-us-corn-yield-2024-07-18/