2024-07-15 05:15

BEIJING, July 15 (Reuters) - China's coal output rose to a six-month high in June, statistics bureau data showed on Monday, as mines ramped up production to meet seasonal demand and safety inspections that constrained production earlier in the year eased. The world's largest coal producer mined 405.38 million metric tons of the fuel last month, a 3.6% increase on the year and the highest since December, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed. The six-month high was calculated by averaging out January-February production, since NBS reports the two months in a combined data release to smooth out the effects of the lunar new year holiday which falls in either month. Analysts at Galaxy Futures attributed the higher output in June to seasonal effects from the Northern Hemisphere summer increasing demand for air conditioning as temperatures rise. They also cited an improvement in the rate of deadly mining accidents allowing some mines to restart operations. Lower production from China's coking coal hub of Shanxi had weighed on output during the March-May period after the local government ordered a series of safety checks following an uptick in deadly accidents, and told miners to curb excess production. The province mined 29% of China's coal last year. Average daily output in June rose to 13.5 million tons, according to Reuters' calculations using the NBS data, also the highest since December. Output will continue rising in the third quarter because of seasonal demand, the Galaxy Futures analysts forecast. But July growth could be constrained by China's third plenum, a key political meeting taking place July 15-18, during which authorities are expected to maintain some restrictions on output to avoid accidents. The lower output during January-May continued to weigh on the year-on-year comparison for the first half of 2024. Output in the January-June period was 2.27 billion tons, down 1.7% compared with the same period last year. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-june-coal-output-hits-six-month-high-safety-inspections-ease-2024-07-15/

2024-07-15 04:35

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Stella Qiu. Shock at the attempt to assassinate former President Donald Trump is driving markets this Monday. For traders, their initial reaction has been to buy the U.S. dollar and bitcoin and sell longer term U.S. Treasuries -- the so-called Trump-victory trades -- as the incident galvanises his chances of winning back the White House. Futures for 10-year Treasuries slipped , pointing to higher yields. Investors have tended to react to the prospect of a Trump win by pushing Treasury yields higher, in part on the assumption his economic policies would add to inflation and debt. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks later in the day, and that's an equally high-stakes event that could sway bets of a September rate cut. Europe is headed for a drop at the open, with EUROSTOXX 50 futures down 0.5%. Euro zone industrial production data is due later in the day where economists are looking for a 1.9% drop for April, which will feed into expectations around the European Central Bank Thursday rates review. ECB chief Christine Lagarde also speaks on Monday, but the upcoming rate decision is unlikely to surprise markets which see a 95% chance of a steady 3.75% policy rate . The policy statement will stress that inflation is coming under control but remains resilient, and upcoming data will be key for timing the next rate cut. Also coming up are earnings results from Wall Street giants BlackRock Inc (BLK.N) New Tab, opens new tab and Goldman Sachs (GS.N) New Tab, opens new tab on Monday. The expectations will be high after their rivals Citigroup and JPMorgan reported huge growth in investment banking revenues. Back in Asia, Chinese data showed it missed growth expectations in the second quarter, underlining the need for more stimulus as a key leadership meeting third plenum gets under way in Beijing. Also worrying was data showing home prices fell at the fastest pace in nine years in June, highlighting the continued strains in the property sector. Still, the People's Bank of China kept a key policy rate unchanged, signalling no intention to cut benchmark lending rate this month. Key developments that could influence markets on Monday: - ECB President Christine Lagarde to speak at Eurogroup meeting in Brussels - Euro zone industrial production data - BlackRock, Goldman Sachs earnings results - Fed Chair Jerome Powell interview at the Economic Club of Washington - Fed San Francisco President Mary Daly speaks Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/global-markets-view-europe-2024-07-15/

2024-07-15 04:26

SINGAPORE, July 15 (Reuters) - Bitcoin surged to a two-week high on Monday after the attempted assassination of U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump raised the odds of the former president, who has presented himself as a champion of cryptocurrency, winning the upcoming election. Trump said he was shot in the ear during the attack at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday. His campaign said he was doing well. Some investors said the attack bolstered his chances of winning back the White House and trades betting on his victory are expected to increase this week. Bitcoin rose 8.6% to $62,508, touching a two-week high of $62,698 earlier in the session, taking its year-to-date gains to 47%. Ether was also up 6.8%% at $3,322. Trump is running against Democratic President Joe Biden in November's U.S. election and has slammed Democrats' attempts to regulate the crypto sector. Trump presented himself as a champion for cryptocurrency during a San Francisco fundraiser in June, although he hasn't offered specifics on his proposed crypto policy. "He's certainly positioned himself as pro-crypto and as the odds of his reelection were galvanised by the shooting on the weekend, it's certainly put a big boost underneath the bid in crypto markets and bitcoin obviously, just an absolute standout," said Tony Sycamore, a market analyst at IG. Trump is due to speak at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, Tennessee, on July 27, the organizers of the conference said last week. Bitcoin had a strong start to the year after the launch of exchange-traded funds in the U.S., propelling it to a record $73,803.25 in mid-March but has since struggled. It fell to an over four month low in early July as traders fretted over the likely dumping of tokens from defunct Japanese exchange Mt. Gox. "We had four weeks of declines on the back of the Mt. Gox news ... but the rebound, it looks to me like it's got further to go and I wouldn't be surprised seeing it head back up towards, at least towards $65,000 by the end of this week," said IG's Sycamore. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/technology/bitcoin-soars-two-week-high-after-trump-attack-2024-07-15/

2024-07-15 04:24

KATHMANDU, July 15 (Reuters) - Rescuers in Nepal ruled out chances of finding survivors in last week's landslide that swept two passenger buses carrying 65 people into a river swollen by heavy rain, authorities said on Monday. Hundreds of security personnel resumed search operations early on Monday to locate the buses and 55 passengers who remained missing, over 72 hours after the accident. Searchers scouring Friday's accident site in Chitwan district, about 86 km (53 miles) west of the capital Kathmandu, have so far found seven dead bodies, including two on Monday. "There are no chances of finding survivors. Our focus is on recovering bodies," Bhesh Raj Rijal, a senior police official in Chitwan district said. Family members, who gathered at the search site, have given up hope on finding their loved ones alive, an official said. "They are requesting us to at least find the dead bodies. The scene here is grim," said Khimananda Bhusal, a government official in the district. Landslides and floods triggered by torrential monsoon rains have killed over 100 people in Nepal since mid-June. Following the landslide, the government announced plans to ban buses from travelling at night in places with adverse weather forecast. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/no-hope-survivors-nepal-bus-accident-55-still-missing-police-official-says-2024-07-15/

2024-07-15 03:05

MUMBAI, July 15 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is likely to open marginally higher on Monday, shrugging off the decline in Asian peers amid higher odds of Donald Trump winning the November election. Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open at 83.50-83.52 to the U.S. dollar from 83.5350 in the previous session. Asian currencies were down between 0.1% to 0.6%, with the offshore yuan slipping to 7.28 to the dollar. Expectations of Trump reclaiming the White House have risen following an assassination attempt on Saturday. With the assassination making it more likely that Trump will again be the U.S. President, the focus in Asia will be on the yuan, a currency trader at a bank said, while adding that "he could not think of a particular reason" for the rupee's rise in the non-deliverable forward market. The dollar index was little changed and U.S. equity futures inched up. "For the moment, there is no sense of a big risk-off, which would suggest that the attack on Trump will not have much of an impact." The yuan was not helped by data that showed that China's economy expanded at a slower pace than forecast in the June quarter, while the activity data for last month was mixed. Meanwhile, data out on Friday showed that U.S. June producer prices increased slightly more than expected on Friday. However, that did not affect the Federal Reserve rate cut outlook. The producer price print follows the softer-than-expected consumer inflation data. Markets have now fully priced in a first Fed rate cut in September and 62 basis points cut this year versus 50 bps before the U.S. consumer inflation data, MUFG Bank said in a note. KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 83.58; onshore one-month forward premium 7 paise ** India's retail inflation rate rose more than expected June due to a continued spike in food prices ** Dollar index at 104.21 ** Brent crude futures up 0.1% at $85.1 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.24% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors bought a net $41.5mln worth of Indian shares on Jul. 11 ** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $84.4mln worth of Indian bonds on Jul. 11 Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/rupee-likely-inch-up-despite-weakness-asian-peers-2024-07-15/

2024-07-15 01:41

All 35 economists expect rates to be on hold at 6.25% on July 17 BENGALURU, July 15 (Reuters) - Bank Indonesia (BI) will keep its key interest rate at 6.25% on Wednesday but will cut it by 25 basis points next quarter, earlier than previously expected following the likely start of policy easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve in September, a Reuters poll found. While inflation has stayed within BI's 1.5%-3.5% target range since July 2023, a weak rupiah - down around 4.5% this year - has pressured the central bank to maintain higher rates for longer as currency stability is its main mandate. All 35 economists in the July 8-12 poll expected the central bank to hold its benchmark seven-day reverse repurchase rate (IDCBRR=ECI) New Tab, opens new tab at 6.25% at the conclusion of its two-day meeting on July 17. "We expect the BI to keep rates on hold in July. While the disinflationary path is conducive for policy, Bank Indonesia's explicit FX stability mandate, rather than inflation, has been the driver of its rate actions in the past year," wrote Radhika Rao, senior economist at DBS Bank. "At the last review, BI Governor Perry acknowledged that these risks have troubled the currency but retained his view that USD/IDR will return to sub-16000 as more clarity emerges, which would then pave the way for rate cuts." BI Governor Perry Warjiyo said last week there could be room for an interest rate cut next quarter as the rupiah is expected to become more stable, but for now, the focus will remain on efforts to maintain currency stability. Median forecasts showed no change to interest rates this quarter but predicted a 25 basis point drop to 6.00% in the fourth quarter. In a June survey, the consensus view predicted the initial cut in the first quarter of 2025. Among economists who provided an outlook for the end of 2024, there was no clear consensus on where the policy rate would be. While 18 forecast rates to be 6.00% or lower, 13 expected it to remain at the current level, with the other one predicting a 25 basis point hike to 6.50%. "With global uncertainties still heightened and USD/IDR elevated, BI will maintain a cautious stance and continue prioritising currency stability," said Sanjay Mathur, chief economist of Southeast Asia and India at ANZ. "We remain of the view that a Fed pivot is a prerequisite for BI to consider following suit." Inflation was expected to average 2.9% and 3.0% this year and next with the economy projected to grow around 5.0% in both years. (See other stories from the Reuters global economic poll) Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/bank-indonesia-hold-rates-625-july-17-wait-us-fed-cut-2024-07-15/