2024-06-25 02:16

Reuters poll graphic on Philippine central bank rate outlook: All 25 economists expect rates to remain unchanged at 6.50% on June 27 BENGALURU, June 25 (Reuters) - The Philippine central bank (BSP) will keep its key policy rate on hold for a sixth consecutive meeting on Thursday, according to all economists polled by Reuters, with the majority expecting the first cut in the last three months of the year. Inflation inched up to 3.9% in May, close to the upper limit of the BSP's 2%-4% target, suggesting the central bank is far from starting an easing cycle despite its view that the cut could come as early as August. With the Philippine peso being one of the worst-performing emerging currencies this year, having lost nearly 6% against the dollar, the BSP is unlikely to pre-empt the U.S. Federal Reserve's first rate cut, expected in September. All 25 economists in a June 18-24 Reuters poll expected Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) to keep its overnight borrowing rate unchanged at 6.50% on June 27. Median forecasts showed the rate on hold after the subsequent meeting in August, followed by a half-point cut in the fourth quarter when the BSP convenes twice - in October and December. "Inflation is uncomfortably high..., which means it is not time for the BSP to begin monetary policy easing just yet. A delay in the first rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve adds to the case the BSP will stand pat in the upcoming meeting," said Sarah Tan, economist at Moody's Analytics in Singapore. "Following the Fed's path rather closely will help to maintain interest rate spreads, thus stabilising currency exchange rates versus the dollar. While monetary policy easing has been repeatedly delayed through the course of this year, the next move by the BSP will likely still be a rate cut." Among those with end-year forecasts, 19 of 22 economists expected the policy rate to be 6.25% or lower, while three saw no change. Six of 22 economists expected the central bank to make the first cut in August. "The risk is skewed towards an earlier move by the BSP...but currency stability concerns will likely curb the magnitude of rate cuts," said Jin Tik Ngai, EM Asia economist at JP Morgan. "Recent peso underperformance is likely a reflection of market speculation the BSP will ease before the Fed, and should the central bank hold off their first rate cut decision, the currency could retrace some of its recent depreciation." (For other stories from the Reuters global economic poll:) Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/philippine-central-bank-hold-rates-june-27-cut-q4-2024-06-25/

2024-06-25 00:52

Fed's Bowman says open to raising rates if needed Fed's Cook says appropriate to cut rates "at some point" U.S. home prices rise in April U.S. consumer confidence modestly pulls back in June Bitcoin recovers from sharp losses on Monday NEW YORK, June 25 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar rose on Tuesday, bolstered by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials as well as data showing a stable housing market in the world's largest economy, both suggesting that the central bank will not be in a rush to kickstart its rate-cutting cycle. The greenback firmed against the euro, yen, Swiss franc, and commodity currencies, such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman started the ball rolling for the dollar, repeating her view on Tuesday that holding the policy rate steady "for some time" will likely be enough to bring inflation under control. She also reiterated her willingness to raise borrowing costs if needed. Fed Governor Lisa Cook, for her part, said it would be appropriate to cut interest rates "at some point" given significant progress on inflation and a gradual cooling of the labor market. She remained vague, however, about the timing of the easing. "If you listen to the Fed speakers, they are very shy of making too much of the one weak report that we have had given that on the aggregate we still had stronger reports since the start of the year," said Jayati Bharadwaj, global FX strategist, at TD Securities in New York. "They sound very non-committal and ... also very data-dependent, given the uncertainty around the inflation outlook that is higher in the U.S. than elsewhere around the world." U.S. data was mixed on Tuesday, still allowing the dollar to hold its gains. A report showed U.S. single-family home prices increased at a steady pace in April, rising 0.2% on the month after being unchanged in March. In the 12 months through April house prices increased 6.3% after advancing 6.7% in March. That pushed the dollar a little higher. U.S. consumer confidence, however, slightly eased in June, with the index at 100.4 from a downwardly revised 101.3 in May, according to the Conference Board. The June number, however, was marginally higher than the market forecast of 100. The report didn't really hurt the dollar. A LOT NEEDED TO SUSTAIN DOLLAR WEAKNESS "The weakness in some of the previous data such as retail sales and jobless claims is not really enough to spark an FX rally or dollar weakness," said Thierry Wizman, global FX and rates strategist at Macquarie in New York. "For dollar weakness to happen, we're going to have to see not just some soft data in the U.S., but also need to see the Fed accelerate its rate cuts. We're going to have to see a divergence in data that favors the rest of the world." Investors are now looking to Friday's release of the U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index - the Fed's preferred measure of inflation. In afternoon trading, the dollar rose 0.1% against the yen to 159.68 yen , clinging to a tight range. Fears of intervention from Japanese officials deterred traders from sharply selling the yen against the dollar and other currencies. Traders remained wary of testing the 160 level that prompted a 9.79 trillion yen ($61.33 billion) currency intervention from Tokyo in late April and early May. The latest decline in the yen has come on the back of the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) June policy meeting, where policymakers disappointed investors who were betting on an immediate reduction of the BOJ's massive bond purchases. The euro slid 0.2% versus the dollar to $1.0714 . It has come under pressure amid political turmoil in France in the wake of President Emmanuel Macron's shock snap election call earlier this month. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar index was up 0.1% at 105.72 . Sterling was slightly higher against the dollar at $1.2693, while the Australian dollar slipped 0.1% to A$0.6649. China's yuan was little changed against the U.S. currency at 7.2629 per dollar. It fell to 7.2631 per dollar earlier, the lowest since mid-November, and within sight of the lower end of the central bank's daily trading limit of 7.265 on Tuesday. The yuan has never breached this threshold. Politics was also at the forefront of investors' minds, with the first U.S. presidential debate between President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump set for Thursday and French elections due to begin this weekend. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin gained ground after its worst day in more than two months at the start of the week, in part due to flows out of bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), analysts said. Bitcoin was last up 4.6% at $62,182. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/dollar-flirts-with-key-160-yen-level-intervention-risk-looms-2024-06-25/

2024-06-25 00:43

HOUSTON, June 25 (Reuters) - Crude oil prices fell 1% on Tuesday as weak U.S. consumer confidence data fed worries about the economic outlook and fuel demand after a slow start to the U.S. summer driving season. Brent futures for August settled down $1, or 1.2%, at $85.01 a barrel. U.S. crude futures settled at $80.83, down 80 cents or 1%. Last week, both benchmarks gained about 3%, marking two straight weeks of gains, and taking them to their highest since April. U.S. consumer confidence decreased in June. While households remained upbeat about the labor market and expected inflation to moderate, concerns about the economy could dent gasoline demand. High inventory levels have made oil traders nervous about summer driving demand. U.S. crude stocks were up by 914,000 barrels in the week ended June 21, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures that also showed gasoline inventories rose by 3.843 million barrels and distillates fell by 1.178 million barrels. Official government data is due Wednesday. U.S. crude and gasoline stockpiles were expected to have fallen while distillate inventories likely rose last week, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Monday. Investors are also trying to discern the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Fed Governor Lisa Cook said on Tuesday a rate cut is likely if the economy performs as expected, but declined to say when the U.S. central bank will act. A Fed "decision on interest rates is still mixed, and most of the crude market has priced in a quarter percent cut by September," said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial. Oil drew support from supply disruption linked to Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. On June 21, Ukrainian drones hit four refineries, including the Ilsky refinery, one of the main fuel producers in southern Russia. Worries of escalating tensions between Israel and the Iran-backed group Hezbollah have also underpinned oil prices, analysts said. Israeli forces killed at least 24 Palestinians in three separate airstrikes on Gaza City early on Tuesday, Gaza health officials and medics said. More than eight months into the war, international mediation backed by the U.S. has failed to yield a ceasefire agreement. "Geopolitical pressures continue to roil the oil market from multiple fronts. ... (The) tensions are expected to persist amid failed efforts to broker ceasefires," said Claudio Galimberti, a director at consultancy Rystad Energy. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-prices-steady-markets-weigh-supply-tensions-china-economic-recovery-2024-06-25/

2024-06-25 00:29

MEXICO CITY, June 24 (Reuters) - At least 234 threatened howler monkeys have died in tropical forests in the south-eastern Mexican state of Tabasco, wildlife non-profit Cobius said on Monday, a figure nearly triple that of a month ago which it attributed to a nationwide heatwave. The over 200 death toll represents only the areas that the Mexican wildlife conservation group was able to study, and the group said the actual figure must be higher. Local media had in May reported at least 85 howler monkey deaths, as temperatures surpassed 45C (113°F) amid an extended drought that has drained the country's reservoirs, only now beginning to be replenished by the start of the rainy season. Though rains have now started across the country, Cobius said in a statement published on social media this "will not solve the emergency, but only provide some time to undertake real conservation action." While Tabasco state has faced consistent high temperatures, Cobius said howler monkey populations were also suffering from hunting, excessive logging, habitat degradation, competition for space and new diseases passed on by humans and domestic animals. "These factors, in synergy with the higher temperatures, cause heat stress which causes acute inflammation and above all contributes to a totally inefficient immune system response," Cobius added. It said some monkeys it studied suffered from pulmonary edema, or wet lung, after breathing in smoke from forest fires. The mantled howler monkey, living in Mexico, Central America, Colombia and Ecuador, is classified as vulnerable on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List, which last carried out a global assessment in 2015. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/over-200-howler-monkeys-mexico-perish-heatwave-says-ngo-2024-06-25/

2024-06-25 00:19

CANBERRA, June 25 (Reuters) - A highly pathogenic strain of avian influenza has spread to an eighth poultry farm near Melbourne, the government of Australia's Victoria state said on Tuesday, taking the total number of infected facilities in the country to 10. Australia is dealing with three parallel outbreaks of bird flu, two near Melbourne and one near Sydney. Each involves a different strain of the virus, none of which is the H5N1 type that has spread through bird and mammal populations and even to humans around the world. Victorian authorities said the new infection was within a quarantine zone already set up around affected farms and was therefore not unexpected. The flu has mostly hit egg farms. Around 1.5 million birds have been or will be killed to control the spread of the virus. There is so far no shortage of eggs in stores. Bird flu spreads to farmed animals from wild birds. The 2024 infections are the tenth outbreak in Australia since 1976. Each was contained and eradicated, according to the government. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/bird-flu-spreads-tenth-australian-poultry-farm-2024-06-25/

2024-06-24 22:19

WASHINGTON, June 24 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen announced $100 million in new financing on Monday to increase the supply of affordable housing, as the Biden administration seeks to address high housing costs ahead of the Nov. 5 presidential election. The measure is one of several moves by the Treasury to try to address a chronic housing shortage, which has been a contributor to lingering inflation and a source of voter dissatisfaction with President Joe Biden's handling of the economy. The additional $100 million over three years will come from payments that the Treasury is receiving from prior COVID-era investments in community lenders to support small businesses, consumers and affordable housing projects, Yellen said in remarks at a public housing development project in Minneapolis. The 2021 Emergency Capital Investment Program injected over $8.57 billion into community lenders, who in turn invested $1.2 billion in 433 affordable housing projects, according to Treasury data. The additional funds could support the financing of thousands more affordable housing units through a new program housed at the Community Development Financial Institutions (CDFI) Fund, Yellen said. HOUSING SUPPLY SHORTFALL The Treasury chief said she expects shelter inflation to moderate, but noted that from 2000 to 2020, median housing rents have outpaced median incomes in counties covering 97% of the U.S. population. "But we face a very significant housing supply shortfall that has been building for a long time. This supply crunch has led to an affordability crunch," Yellen said in excerpts of remarks. She added that the burden was greatest on low-income and Black households. Christopher Tyson, president of National Community Stabilization Trust, which advocates for increased affordable single-family home ownership, called the additional funding a good start towards bridging the gap between what people can afford and where the market sets prices. "Distortions in the housing market because of the lack of supply have just pushed homeownership out of reach" for many potential buyers, Tyson said, estimating a U.S. shortage of about 2 million housing units. Yellen also is calling on the 11 Federal Home Loan Banks to devote at least 20% of their net income to housing programs, up from the legal requirement of 10% and the banks' voluntary commitment of 15%. Had this commitment been in place over the last five years, the 11 government-sponsored enterprises would have contributed nearly $2 billion more to housing programs than legally required, the Treasury said. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-treasury-devote-extra-100-mln-over-3-years-affordable-housing-2024-06-24/