2024-05-24 05:52
NEW DELHI, May 24 (Reuters) - At least 11 people have died of suspected heat-related causes in western India and Pakistan also sweltered on Friday in extreme heat, while parts of Bangladesh and neighbouring states braced for a likely cyclone hit this weekend. Local media reported nine deaths that were suspected to be heat-related in India's western Rajasthan state, where temperature in the desert town of Phalodi reached 49 degrees Celsius (120.2 Fahrenheit) on Friday - the highest temperature recorded in the country this year. Disaster management officials in the state said they had yet to ascertain the cause of the deaths, as medical examinations were not complete. Weather officials have warned of conditions ranging from a heatwave to severe heatwave in many parts of the state, as well as in the northern states of Punjab and Haryana. At least two people have died of heat stroke in the western city of Ahmedabad, Additional Superintendent Rajnish Patel told media outlet Divya Bhaskar. Many people have been taken to hospital in the city with heat-related illnesses in the past three days, said Vikas Bihani, a spokesperson for the state-run ambulance service. India declares a heatwave when the temperature touches 40 C (104 F) in the plains, a departure of at least 4.5 Celsius from the normal maximum temperature. India's summer temperatures often peak in May, but scientists have predicted more heatwave days than usual this year, largely caused by fewer non-monsoon thunder showers and an active but weakening dry El Nino weather phenomenon. In neighbouring Pakistan, the climate change ministry said about 26 districts were boiling in a severe heatwave as of Thursday, with the current hot spell likely to last until May 30. The temperature was expected to hit 50 C (122 F)) in at least two cities on Friday in Pakistan's southern province of Sindh, where school exams have been delayed due to the blistering heat. CYCLONE IN BANGLADESH Further east, "severe cyclonic storm" Remal was expected to make landfall in Bangladesh and parts of West Bengal in eastern India on Sunday, with wind speeds of up to 120 kph (75 mph), the India Meteorological Department said. In the southern Indian state of Kerala at least seven people died this week following pre-monsoon rains that were about 18% percent heavier than normal, bringing floods that disrupted flights in some areas. Kerala was likely to be lashed with very heavy to extremely heavy rain on Friday too. Extreme temperatures throughout Asia last month were made worse most likely as a result of human-driven climate change, a team of international scientists have said. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/scorching-heatwave-indias-rajasthan-kills-nine-2024-05-24/
2024-05-24 04:42
May 24 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expressed concern over substantial increases in living costs, the Financial Times said on Friday. In an interview published on Friday Yellen said that although wages had gone up significantly, there were substantial price increases important to people, as such increases in a relatively short period of time were very noticeable. "They see it when they shop for food," she added. "They see it in terms of rentals. With higher mortgage rates, it's tough for young people who would like to buy a house to enter the market." In the 12 months through April, US CPI increased 3.4% after climbing 3.5% in March. Early this month, the U.S. central bank left its benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged in the current range of 5.25% to 5.50%, where it has been since July. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/uss-yellen-expresses-concern-over-rising-living-costs-ft-says-2024-05-24/
2024-05-24 04:31
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Ankur Banerjee The cheer from Wall Street darling Nvidia's strong results didn't last long as fears that interest rates would stay higher for longer once again dampened the AI rally. Retail sales for April in Britain and detailed GDP data for Germany headline European economic calendar, keeping investors risk averse, weighing on stocks and taking the dollar higher. Futures indicate a weak open in Europe with the STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) New Tab, opens new tab poised for a near 1% weekly decline, its biggest such drop since mid April. The blue-chip UK stock index (.FTSE) New Tab, opens new tab will also be in focus after the surprise call for a general election by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. The Bank of England also has to contend with UK inflation that slowed less than expected in April. Markets are now pricing in 30 basis points of cuts this year, with expectations BOE is most likely to start cutting rates at its September meeting though markets are not ruling out August, both after the election. Meanwhile, traders are pricing in 58 basis points of cuts in 2024 from the European Central Bank, compared with 67 at the start of the week in the wake of key wage data. The ECB has long pinned rate cut hopes on this crucial wage figure but has essentially committed to policy easing on June 6, so the fresh number is more likely to influence policy decisions later in the year. As for the Federal Reserve, markets now fully expect a rate cut only in December and are pricing in 36 basis points of easing after robust economic data. It was not long ago (in January) that markets had priced in as much as 150 basis points of easing this year. In corporate news, the focus will be on Hargreaves Lansdown (HRGV.L) New Tab, opens new tab after Reuters reported the UK retail investment platform's biggest shareholder, Peter Hargreaves, was open to taking the company private. Key developments that could influence markets on Friday: Economic events: Germany Q1 GDP, UK April retail sales, Sweden April PPI Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/global-markets-view-europe-2024-05-24/
2024-05-24 04:28
TOKYO, May 24 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan will decide to start tapering the size of its bond-buying by end-July, according to nearly two-thirds of economists polled by Reuters, while close to 90% forecast an interest rate hike to at least 0.20% by the end of the year. The findings reflect forecasters' stronger conviction that the BOJ will gently tighten policy even as most other major central banks look toward easing. Although the Japanese central bank ended negative rates in March, it has stuck to its guidance of buying roughly 6 trillion yen ($38.3 billion) per month of government bonds to avoid sudden spikes in yields. However, the BOJ is facing growing political pressure to slow the yen's decline, blamed for squeezing households through higher import costs, and being compelled to take action such as slowing bond purchases and raising interest rates. Forty-one percent of economists, or 11 of 27, predicted the BOJ would make a decision on bond-buying reduction as early as the June meeting, while another 22% said July, the May 16-22 poll found. "The decision to start (bond purchase reductions) in the early stages of normalisation is already seen as a consensus among policymakers and appropriate in terms of reducing additional yen depreciation pressure," said Ayako Fujita, chief Japan economist at JPMorgan Securities. Three economists opted for September, while another three said the bank would wait until 2025 or later. The BOJ made an unannounced cut last week to the amount of Japanese government bonds it offered to buy in a regular purchase operation and Japan's 10-year government bond yield crossed 1% for the first time in 12 years on Friday, with expectations of further policy tightening. While all but one of the 54 economists in this month's poll predicted the next interest rate hike would not take place in June, 88% (or 43 of 49) responded the policy rate would increase to at least 0.20% by year-end, up from 65% in the April poll. Specifically, 47%, or 25 of 53, said borrowing costs would rise to between 0.20% and 0.35% in the July-September quarter. Another 41% of economists, 20 of 49, forecast that the BOJ will raise rates to either 0.20% or 0.25% in the October-December period. Seven economists who expected a rate increase next quarter also saw the policy rate being lifted to either 0.30% or 0.50% in the three months to December. "The BOJ needs to show their ability to raise the policy rate to stem a rapid depreciation of the yen, even if they have little room in reality," said Chiyuki Takamatsu, chief economist at Fukoku Mutual Life Insurance. The median forecast showed the upper end target of the overnight call rate, currently at 0.10%, would be raised to 0.50% by the April-June quarter of next year, compared to the October-December quarter of 2025 predicted in the April poll. Of a sample of 33 economists who provided a forecast for which month the BOJ would next hike rates, October was the top pick with 39%, followed by July with 27% and 15% in September. The yen's fall to a 34-year low against the U.S. dollar last month triggered a suspected round of intervention by Japanese authorities and piled pressure on the BOJ to tilt its policy stance more towards the hawkish spectrum. In the poll, 85% of economists, or 22 of 26, said the government and BOJ will intervene to stem the Japanese currency from weakening further, down from 91% in April. Nearly three-quarters, or 16 of 22, who answered a follow-up question, said they expected action if the yen declined to 160 against the dollar. (For other stories from the Reuters global economic poll:) ($1 = 156.5900 yen) Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/boj-decide-bond-purchase-reduction-by-end-july-say-economists-2024-05-24/
2024-05-24 03:02
MUMBAI, May 24 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is likely to be weaker on Friday after robust U.S. data prompted doubts about whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates later this year, pushing the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields higher. Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee will open marginally weaker to the dollar from 83.28 in the previous session. The rupee rose for the third day on Wednesday, hitting the highest in six weeks. Indian foreign exchange and money markets were closed on Thursday. The near-term downward bias on the dollar/rupee "may well be over and we will probably see a return to the 83.40 kind of levels", an FX trader at a bank said. "You have the dollar higher and then I think you will see less appetite for a push lower (on dollar/rupee)." U.S. data showed persistent strength in the labour market and business activity, prompting investors to reduce the probability that the Fed will cut rates later this year. U.S. initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped more-than-expected and U.S. business activity accelerated to the highest in more than two years in May. The activity data highlighted improving growth momentum at the mid-way point of Q2 and the need for ongoing caution with respect to monetary policy, ANZ Bank said in a note. Odds that after the Fed's September meeting, the policy rate will remain at the current level of 5.25%-5.50% were up to 46%, as per the CME FedWatch Tool. The dollar index reclaimed the 105 handle and the two-year U.S. yields made an intraday high of 4.96%. Expectations on whether the Fed will cut rates later this year have had to contend with an April inflation reading that was softer, remarks from policymakers calling for patience on rate cuts and the mostly upbeat U.S. data. KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 83.38; onshore one-month forward premium at 7.50 paisa ** Dollar index up at 105.08 ** Brent crude futures at $81.3 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.47% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $225.2mln worth of Indian shares on May. 21 ** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $86.9mln worth of Indian bonds on May. 21 Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/rupee-may-struggle-after-fed-rate-cut-expectations-dialled-back-2024-05-24/
2024-05-24 00:51
PORTO ALEGRE, Brazil, May 23 (Reuters) - Heavy rains once again pounded parts of Brazil's southernmost state on Thursday, ruining days-long clean-up efforts and flooding areas which had previously been untouched in Rio Grande do Sul's capital city of Porto Alegre. Record flooding over the past month has killed 163 people and displaced around 600,000 more. Another 64 people are still missing. Rains had lightened up to a drizzle over the past few days, with stores beginning to open and residents working to rebuild. But the skies opened once more on Thursday morning, dumping heavy rains and flooding areas of Porto Alegre all over again. One daycare in the neighborhood of Menino Deus, which had reopened on Wednesday after a week-long clean-up, was forced to evacuate as the rains rushed in. "It all happened very quickly, (the flooding happened) much faster than last time," the director of the childcare center, who did not give her name, said. In a span of 12 hours, parts of Porto Alegre received more rains than they typically do in a whole month, according to data from the national meteorological institute. The flooding on Thursday also hit areas of Porto Alegre, such as in the south, which had previously gone unscathed. Gimena Samuel had to call for her elderly parents to be rescued in the neighborhood of Cavalhada, where streets were flooded and cars unable to get through. "There are a lot of elderly people here who can't get out by themselves," she said. Earlier this week, the city of Porto Alegre had asked residents to leave their trash out on the sidewalk to be thrown away. However, the fresh rains carried the trash out onto the street, clogging drains and worsening the flooding. Porto Alegre Mayor Sebastiao Melo told reporters the city was not surprised by the downpour, but that it was "excessively heavy." Residents, however, complained about the lack of warning. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/heavy-rains-return-southern-brazil-flooding-even-higher-ground-porto-alegre-2024-05-24/
