2024-05-14 07:20
BUKITTINGGI, Indonesia, May 14 (Reuters) - The number of people killed by flash floods and mud slides in Indonesia's West Sumatra province has risen to 52, and more than 3,000 people have been evacuated, authorities said on Tuesday, with heavy rains expected until next week. Torrential rain on Saturday evening triggered flash floods, landslides, and cold lava flow - a mud-like mixture of volcanic ash, rock debris and water - in three districts in West Sumatra province. On Monday, the death toll was 43. The cold lava flow, known in Indonesia as a lahar, came from Mount Marapi, one of Sumatra's most active volcanoes. More than 20 people were killed when Marapi erupted in December. A series of eruptions have followed since. Of the 52 dead, more than 45 have been identified, West Sumatra disaster agency spokesman Ilham Wahab said. Local rescuers, police and military will continue searching for 17 people who are still missing, he added. Ilham said 249 houses, 225 hectares (556 acres) of land, including rice fields, and most of main roads in the three districts were damaged. The floods have receded since Sunday. "Besides searching for the missing persons, we will focus to clean the main roads from the mud, logs, large rocks brought by the floods onto roads and settlements," Ilham said. As of Tuesday, 3,396 people have been evacuated to nearby buildings, the head of national disaster and management agency BNPB, Suharyanto, said in a statement. BNPB has distributed tents, blankets, food, hygiene kits, portable toilets, and water purifiers, said Suharyanto, who uses a single name, like many Indonesians. However, the distribution has been impeded as most roads were covered by mud and debris, he said. Heavy rains in West Sumatra province are still expected until next week, said Dwikorita Karnawati, the head of Indonesia's meteorology agency, BMKG. "This means that we need to be alert about the potential flash floods and landslides at least until May 17-22," she said. BMKG also warned people to stay away from hillsides that are prone to landslides. Roza Yolanda, 23, was relaxing at her house when the heavy rain fell over the weekend. Water poured into her house seconds after a power outage. "I was dragged out of my house by the floods into the streets, around 200 metres," Roza said. "My neck was struck down by logs, I hit walls, windows." She was floating for about 15 minutes before being saved. Roza, who suffered bruising over her entire body, said her mother is safe but her father was still missing. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/death-toll-floods-indonesias-west-sumatra-rises-50-2024-05-14/
2024-05-14 07:16
NEW DELHI, May 14 (Reuters) - India's wholesale price-based inflation (INWPI=ECI) New Tab, opens new tab rose 1.26% in April, the highest pace in a year, mainly driven by food and primary articles, government data showed on Tuesday. The April figures were higher than the 1% rise expected by economists polled by Reuters and up from a 0.53% year-on-year rise in March. Wholesale inflation was the highest since March 2023, when it hit 1.41%. Food prices rose 5.52% on-year compared with an increase of 4.65% in March, while prices of primary articles were up 5.01% against a 4.51% rise in the previous month. Manufactured product prices fell 0.42% against a 0.85% drop in the previous month. Fuel and power prices rose 1.38% compared with a 0.77% drop in March. The inflation was driven by higher crude oil and food prices, said Paras Jasrai, an economist at India Ratings. Inflation should quicken further in May, largely due to a favourable base and some pickup in global commodity prices, said Jasrai. Annual retail inflation rate eased slightly in April, partly due to lower fuel prices, although food prices remained elevated, government data showed on Monday. The central bank held interest rates steady in April as growth was seen staying robust while inflation has remained above its 4% target. Markets now expect a rate cut only in early 2025 as opposed to earlier views for an easing in the last quarter of 2024. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indias-april-wholesale-price-index-rises-126-year-earlier-2024-05-14/
2024-05-14 07:07
CANBERRA, May 14 (Reuters) - There are early signs that a La Nina weather event may form in the Pacific Ocean later this year, Australia's weather bureau said on Tuesday. A La Nina would have significant consequences for global agriculture because it typically brings wetter weather to eastern Australia and southeast Asia and drier conditions to the Americas. The bureau said it had declared a "La Nina Watch". "When La Nina Watch criteria have been met in the past, a La Nina event has subsequently developed around 50% of the time," it said. La Nina events result from cooler sea surface temperatures in the Pacific. Warmer sea surface temperatures can cause an opposite weather phenomenon called El Nino, which occurred last year and lasted into early 2024. "Sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific have been steadily cooling since December 2023," the bureau said. "The Bureau's modelling suggests that ENSO will likely remain neutral until at least July 2024," it said, using the formal name, the El Niño Southern Oscillation, that describes the switch between the two phases. Other forecasters have also heralded a La Nina later this year. Last week, Japan's weather bureau said there was a 60% chance it would occur by November, and a U.S. government forecaster said there was a 69% chance that it would develop during July-September. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/australian-weather-bureau-sees-50-chance-la-nina-this-year-2024-05-14/
2024-05-14 06:58
MILAN, May 14 (Reuters) - Expectations over interest rate cuts rather than earnings optimism has made investors the "most bullish" since November 2021, Bank of America's monthly fund manager survey for May showed on Tuesday. The survey of global fund managers with $562 billion in asset under management found 82% expect the first by the rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the second half, while 78% say a recession is unlikely over the next 12 months. The survey showed cash levels fell to a three-year low of 4% from 4.2% the previous months and stock allocation reached its highest since January 2022, a dynamic that typically reflects strong investor confidence. However, expectations for global growth fell for the first time since November, with a net 9% expecting a weaker economy over the next 12 months, compared with 11% that expected a stronger economy in the last survey in April. That said, most investors do not expect recession. "On the global economy, 78% of FMS (fund manager survey) investors say a recession is 'unlikely' within the next 12 months, in line with last month’s expectations," BofA said. "For the fourth month in a row, a greater share of FMS investors see a global recession as 'unlikely' (78%) than 'likely' (22%)," the bank said. In terms of crowded trades, the survey showed participants still believe "long Magnificent Seven" is the most crowded - referring to the seven most valuable U.S. companies, a group that includes Apple (AAPL.O) New Tab, opens new tab, Microsoft (MSFT.O) New Tab, opens new tab and Amazon (AMZN.O) New Tab, opens new tab. "Long U.S. dollar" was the second most-crowded trade, overtaking "short Chinese equities", the survey showed. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/rate-cut-bets-make-investors-most-bullish-since-nov-2021-bofa-survey-2024-05-14/
2024-05-14 06:57
US producer prices increase more than expected in April Canada wildfires threaten 3.3 mln bpd oil supply Israeli tanks push deeper into eastern Rafah API U.S. stock data HOUSTON, May 14 (Reuters) - Oil prices settled lower on Tuesday, after U.S. data stoked concerns that interest rates may stay high, but potential risks to supply from Mideast tensions and wildfires in Canada put a floor under prices. Brent crude futures settled down 98 cents, or 1.18% at $82.38 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) settled down $1.10, or 1.39% at $78.02 a barrel. U.S. producer prices increased more than expected in April, feeding fears the Federal Reserve may keep borrowing costs elevated to fight inflation. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he expects U.S. inflation to keep declining through 2024 but warned he is less confident now, since prices rose more quickly than expected through the first quarter. "The inflation story is not under control that is pulling demand back a bit and the thing that rubbed a little salt in the wound was Powell's comments", said Tim Snyder, economist at Matador Economics. U.S. consumer price data is expected on Wednesday and will affect timing of rate cuts that could spur economic growth and oil demand. Another stronger-than-expected inflation reading could feed worries that a too-hot economy will force the Fed to raise rates again, which could hinder growth. Meanwhile on Tuesday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries stuck to its forecast for relatively strong growth in global oil demand in 2024 and said there was a chance the world economy could do better than expected this year. OPEC's monthly report said world oil demand will rise by 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 and by 1.85 million bpd in 2025. Energy markets were also watching wildfires in remote western Canada that could buoy prices by disrupting oil supplies. Firefighters on Monday were racing to contain one blaze in British Columbia and two in Alberta near the heart of the country's oil sands industry. Canada has a 3.3 million barrel per day (bpd) production capacity, and is a key supplier of heavier crude. "Spreading wildfires in Alberta oil sands impose downside risks to our constructive Canada production outlook as massive fires in the same region eight years ago triggered a temporary shutdown of over 1 million bpd oil production," said Goldman Sachs analysts in a note. Meanwhile, conflict in the Middle East could be lending a floor to prices. Israeli tanks pushed deeper into eastern Rafah, reaching some residential districts of the southern border city where more than a million people had been sheltering. "Uncertainty over Rafah and the blowback from that is keeping the market on edge as well," said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group. U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories fell last week while distillate stocks rose, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute figures on Tuesday. Official inventory data from the U.S. government is due on Wednesday. The API figures showed crude stocks were down by 3.104 million barrels in the week ended May 10, the sources said on condition of anonymity. Gasoline inventories fell by 1.269 million barrels, and distillates rose by 673,000 barrels. Brent crude futures edged down 62 cents, or 0.74% to$82.74 a barrel by 1640 ET shortly after API data was published, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures (WTI) fell by 68 cents, or 0.86% to $78.44 a barrel. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-prices-tick-up-tighter-supply-outlook-2024-05-14/
2024-05-14 06:52
May 14 (Reuters) - What's happened to the army of retail traders who used to drive bitcoin's biggest rallies? U.S. crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN.O) New Tab, opens new tab reported just $56 billion in consumer trading volumes in the first quarter of 2024, when bitcoin leapt to record heights close to $74,000. While that represents a fledgling recovery in retail interest - almost double the level in the final quarter of last year - it's way below the $133.75 billion quarterly average during the last comparable rally in 2021. The retail investor was in the driving seat of that wild 2021 ride, as COVID lockdowns, cheap money and personal savings drove up prices of "meme" stocks and spawned bouts of intense FOMO, or fear of missing out. By contrast, the latest rally was a more solemn, institutional affair propelled by the birth of U.S. bitcoin exchange-traded funds. "It's the million-dollar question in crypto right now - when will retail traders come back?" said Michael Rinko, analyst at Delphi Digital. In another sign of the retail retreat, Google trends data shows search interest in the term "bitcoin" in March was only half of the peak in 2021. Some small-time investors are still nursing the chills of the more than two-year long crypto winter, when bitcoin stayed limp at levels between $20,000 to $30,000. Billions of customer funds were also trapped in the implosion of high profile crypto companies, including Three Arrows Capital, Celsius Network and FTX, whose founder Sam Bankman-Fried was sentenced to 25 years in prison for fraud. "The key force behind the reduced activity stems from lessons learned throughout the harrowing year, which was 2022," said Vetle Lunde, analyst at K33 Research. "The contagion and collapse of a vast portion of retail-facing lending platforms illustrated that considerable risks were hiding behind the attractive yields." Some market participants reckon bitcoin, which accounts for more than half of the $2.26 trillion digital assets market capitalization, will be hit by a period of rotation as investors take profits on the coin and decide to buy riskier altcoins such as the no. 2 crypto ether and others. Indeed, ether lags its larger rival bitcoin and is yet to exceed its 2021 peak. "Instead of just blindly jumping into crypto in whatever seems to be hot at the time, people are now focused much more on what is a secure and safe asset to invest in," said John Glover, chief investment officer at crypto lending platform Ledn. It remains to be seen if or when speculative crypto traders will return to the market in force. Right now, bitcoin's tumble to $62,809, 15% below its mid-March record high is serving as a reminder of the sharp volatility and risk that comes with the asset. "The meme in crypto is - bitcoin needs to hit $100,000 for retail to come back," said Rinko at Delphi Digital. "Who knows if that's the magic number but we do need to get to a number that really ignites FOMO." Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/technology/cryptoverse-retail-traders-sit-out-bitcoin-rally-2024-05-14/
