2023-12-01 11:19

Copyrighted Image by: Reuters. The euro experienced a slight recovery today after a downturn on Thursday, influenced by lower inflation figures in the European Union and a stronger dollar. Market participants are eagerly anticipating Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speeches, which are expected to provide insights into the central bank's future monetary policy direction. The single currency had been under pressure due to soft EU inflation statistics that prompted a near 0.8% drop on Thursday. This downward movement came after the euro failed twice to breach the key psychological level of 1.10, finding some support at a Fibonacci retracement mark of 1.0882. Despite the modest rebound, the euro remains under near-term pressure while trading below the crucial threshold of the daily chart’s 10-day moving average (10DMA) at 1.0926. Traders are keeping a close eye on further pivotal levels, particularly at 1.0818/00, which includes the weekly cloud top and a Fibonacci retracement zone. A decisive break below the Fibonacci resistance at 1.0559 would confirm a bear-trap scenario on the weekly timeframe, which could increase the downside risks for the euro. https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/euro-rebounds-modestly-after-hitting-support-levels-amid-fed-speculation-93CH-3247601

2023-12-01 09:40

Copyrighted Image by: Reuters Investing.com - The U.S. dollar retreated in early European trade Friday, as a key inflation release added to expectations that U.S. interest rates have peaked. At 04:40 ET (09:40 GMT), the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six other currencies, traded 0.2% lower to 103.212, after clocking its weakest monthly performance in a year in November. Dollar falls after PCE release The eagerly awaited personal consumption expenditures price index rose 3% in October from a year ago, according to data released on Thursday, falling from 3.4% the previous month. This index is widely seen as the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation, and although the reading was still above the Fed's 2% target, the trajectory is clearly lower. The main economic release Friday is the ISM manufacturing PMI, while traders will also pay close attention to comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell later in the session, looking for clues of the central bank’s rate outlook. “The FX market is set to remain highly sensitive to any activity data point, but there is a sense dollar bulls have survived the consumer spending and PCE risk, so that today’s ISM figures may not have a big impact – barring any big surprises,” said analysts at ING, in a note. Euro helped by manufacturing PMI data In Europe, EUR/USD rose 0.1% to 1.0897, with the euro edging higher after steep overnight losses, helped by data showing the broad-based downturn in eurozone manufacturing activity eased slightly last month, while remaining firmly in contraction territory.. HCOB's final eurozone manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 44.2 in November from October's 43.1, above a preliminary estimate of 43.8. Importantly, the downturn in Germany's dominant manufacturing sector eased in November, increasing for the fourth month in a row. GBP/USD rose 0.3% to 1.2666, heading back towards the recent three-month top of 1.2733, after data from Nationwide indicated that British house prices rose unexpectedly in monthly terms for the third time running in November. House prices rose by 0.2% on the month in November, after a 0.9% increase in October. Compared with a year ago, house prices were 2% lower - the smallest such drop in nine months. Yen set for another weekly gain In Asia, USD/JPY traded 0.3% lower to 147.74, on course for its third straight week of gains against the dollar, pulling it away from the three-decade low of 151.92 it touched in the middle of November. USD/CNY edged higher to 7.1376, after a private survey showed that Chinese manufacturing activity rebounded unexpectedly in November. But the reading contrasted with official data released on Thursday, which showed a sustained contraction in the manufacturing sector. https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/dollar-retreats-after-pce-data-points-to-cooling-inflation-powell-set-to-speak-3247504

2023-12-01 09:13

Copyrighted Image by: Reuters. INDIA - In a recent update reflecting the global oil market trends and Saudi Contract Price (CP), Indian oil companies have announced a cut in Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) prices by 4.6%, now standing at ₹106,155.67 per kilolitre. This price adjustment, effective today, was accompanied by a hike in commercial Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) by ₹21, bringing the price to ₹1,796.50 for a 19kg cylinder in Delhi. However, domestic LPG prices remain unchanged at ₹903 for a 14.2kg cylinder. The monthly pricing update, a practice by Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL), and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL), mirrors the fluctuations in the international oil market and is in line with the Saudi CP. This latest announcement comes after a period of incremental increases in ATF rates observed from July through October. In contrast, the prices for petrol and diesel have maintained stability since the last adjustment in May, following the excise duty cut in April. Both fuels have remained at ₹96.72 and ₹89.62 (USD1 = INR83.333) per litre, respectively, indicating a period of relative steadiness in the domestic fuel market. The adjustments in fuel prices are particularly significant for industries reliant on transportation fuels, such as aviation, where ATF costs constitute a substantial portion of operational expenses. The reduction in ATF prices could provide some relief for airlines, which have been facing pressure from rising fuel costs over the past several months. The changes in LPG prices also have implications for both commercial and household sectors. While households will not see a change in their LPG expenses this month, businesses using commercial LPG will need to adjust to the slight increase in costs. https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/atf-prices-slashed-by-46-as-indias-oil-companies-update-monthly-rates-93CH-3247488

2023-12-01 06:21

Copyrighted Image by: Reuters. Investing.com-- Gold prices steadied near a seven-month high on Friday, pausing their recent rally amid anticipation of more cues on U.S. interest rates from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell later in the day. A swathe of middling purchasing managers index (PMI) readings from across Asia also kept safe haven demand for the yellow metal largely elevated, amid growing concerns over a looming economic slowdown. Gold was sitting on strong gains in November, as markets grew convinced that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates no further, and will begin trimming rates in 2024. But the timing of the potential interest rate cuts remained a key point of uncertainty for markets. Spot gold rose 0.3% to $2,041.35 an ounce, while gold futures expiring in December rose 0.2% to $2,041.30 an ounce by 00:57 ET (05:57 GMT). Both instruments clocked strong gains in November, with spot prices less than $40 away from a record high. Powell set to offer more cues before December Fed meeting Powell is set to speak at two separate events later on Friday. While the Fed Chair has largely maintained his stance that rates will remain higher for longer, markets were looking for any changes in his stance after dovish cues from a string of Fed officials earlier this week. They also acknowledged that U.S. inflation had fallen substantially in recent months, and that further declines in inflation were likely to invite early interest rate cuts by the central bank. But while U.S. inflation eased in recent months, it still remained well above the Fed’s 2% annual target. This was seen in PCE price index data released on Thursday, which in part contributed to the dollar’s rebound. Powell's comments will be the Fed Chair's final word before a two-week blackout period in anticipation of a mid-December Fed meeting. The central bank is widely expected to keep rates on hold. Copper prices steady after strong November Among industrial metals, copper prices steadied on Friday after clocking strong gains in November, amid some improving economic trends in China and expectations of tighter supplies. Copper futures expiring March were flat at $3.8515 a pound, after rallying 5.5% in November. A private survey showed on Friday that China’s manufacturing sector unexpectedly grew in November. But the reading contrasted with a government survey earlier this week, which showed the sector remaining in contraction. The readings offered mixed cues on the world’s largest copper importer, which is struggling with a sluggish economic recovery this year. On the supply front, however, mine closures in Peru and Panama are set to tighten copper markets in the coming months. https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/gold-prices-steady-after-strong-november-gains-powell-in-focus-3247391

2023-12-01 04:51

Copyrighted Image by: Reuters. Investing.com-- Most Asian currencies kept to a tight range on Friday, while the dollar rebounded from 3-½ month lows in anticipation of more cues on interest rates from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Regional currencies cooled slightly after a stellar rally through November, amid growing conviction that the Fed was done raising interest rates. The central bank is now widely expected to begin trimming rates in 2024, with markets now seeking more cues on the timing of the rate cuts. Some mixed economic readings from Asia also provided middling cues to markets. China’s yuan was flat after a private survey showed that manufacturing activity rebounded unexpectedly in November. But the reading contrasted with official data released on Thursday, which showed a sustained contraction in the manufacturing sector. The Australian dollar inched higher as data showed manufacturing activity contracted as expected in November. Focus was now on a Reserve Bank of Australia meeting next week, where the central bank is widely expected to keep rates on hold amid easing inflation. South Korea’s won was muted following mixed trade and manufacturing data, while the Indian rupee remained close to record lows, even as data showed the Indian economy grew faster than expected in the September quarter. A Reserve Bank of India meeting is also on tap next week, with the bank set to hold rates steady. Dollar steady after rebounding from 3-½ month lows, Powell awaited Uncertainty over the Fed’s potential pivot helped the dollar recover sharply from its lowest levels since mid-August. Overnight data also showed that the PCE price index- the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge- remained comfortably above the central bank’s 2% target in October. The dollar index and dollar index futures fell slightly in Asian trade, after surging 0.7% on Thursday. Powell is set to speak at two separate events on Friday, with any changes to the Fed Chair’s rhetoric largely in focus after several other Fed officials suggested that the central bank was done raising interest rates. Powell has largely maintained the rhetoric that rates will remain higher for longer, although that trend will also depend on the path of inflation. Several Fed members noted this week that inflation had fallen substantially this year, although it still remained above the central bank’s target range. The dollar was also nursing steep losses for November, amid growing conviction that the Fed was done raising interest rates. Asian currencies had rallied through the month on the same notion. https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/asia-fx-muted-dollar-rebounds-before-powell-speech-3247339

2023-12-01 01:34

Copyrighted Image by: Reuters Investing.com -- Oil prices fell for a sixth-straight week Friday, as voluntary output cut agreements from major oil producers that fell short expectations continued to keep worries about oversupply front and centre. By 14:30 ET (19.30 GMT), the U.S. crude futures settled 2.5% lower at $74.07 a barrel, and the Brent contract dropped 2.5% to $78.88 a barrel. Both benchmarks fell around 2% on Thursday, resulting in losses over the course of November of over 6%, the second consecutive losing month. OPEC+ voluntary output cut agreements amount to 'paper cut' Seven OPEC+ countries announced plans for additional voluntary production cuts in the first quarter, the sum of which amount to “paper cut” of 896,000 barrels per day, Goldman Sachs said in a note, as the recent upside surprise in the global crude supplies could weigh on oil prices. “We had already assumed the rollover of the Saudi and Russian cuts into 1Q24, as had most of the market,” said analysts at ING, in a note. “Therefore, new additional cuts of a little under 900Mbbls/d will be seen in 1Q24. These additional voluntary cuts will be brought back gradually to the market after 1Q24 depending on market conditions.” 'OPEC Put' weakening as bar for further cuts higher Markets had been pricing in a larger cut, and the voluntary nature of the reductions has created uncertainty over the actual extent of future supply levels, signaling that the 'OPEC put' is waning. "The OPEC put is weakening because extra cuts are becoming increasingly difficult to implement," Goldman Sachs adds, suggesting that "any additional cuts become increasingly difficult to implement. Still, the cuts, which could lower crude supplies by 700,000 barrels per day in the first half of next year, Goldman Sachs forecasts could support Brent oil prices in the $80 to $100 range in 2024. China's stuttering economy adds to demand concerns Weaker data from China, the world's largest oil importer, further soured sentiment on oil prices after the China manufacturing activity contracted for a second month in November. The weaker data fueled concerns about global growth weighing on the crude demand outlook at time when recent data in Eurozone has suggested the recession winds could be on the horizon. Dollar doldrums offers little respite; rig counts on the up and up The dollar followed Treasury yields lower as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell pushback on rate cuts did little to pin back hopes on further rate cuts. The weaker dollar - usually a boon for oil prices - didn't provide much relief for oil prices as sentiment continued to be dominated concerns about increasing supplies. Oilfield services firm Baker Hughes reported its weekly U.S. rig count rose to 505 from 500. https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-prices-in-6th-weekly-side-as-bears-sharpen-claws-after-opec-cuts-fall-short-3247323