2024-03-11 05:24

Copyrighted Image by: Reuters. Investing.com-- Gold prices steadied just below record highs in Asian trade on Monday, with focus turning largely to upcoming U.S. inflation data for more cues on when the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates. Expectations of rate cuts saw bullion prices rise sharply to record highs last week, especially as Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that inflation was close to reaching levels the Fed was comfortable with. Middling labor market data, which indicated some cooling in U.S. employment, also aided bullion prices, as did weakness in the dollar and Treasury yields. Spot gold rose 0.1% to $2,180.47 an ounce, while gold futures expiring in April rose 0.1% to $2,187.00 an ounce by 00:50 ET (04:50 GMT). Both instruments were trading just below record highs hit on Friday. Gold futures hit a lifetime high of $2,203.0 an ounce, while spot gold hit a lifetime high of $2,195.20 an ounce last week. CPI data in focus after mixed Fed signals, labor data Focus was now squarely on U.S. consumer price index data due on Tuesday, for more cues on interest rates. The reading is expected to show some cooling inflation through February, although inflation is still expected to remain well above the Fed’s 2% annual target. U.S. inflation will be closely watched this week, especially after Powell and a string of Fed officials signaled that anxiety over sticky inflation was the central bank’s biggest consideration in lower interest rates. The prospect of lower rates was the biggest boost to gold prices over the past two weeks, especially as labor data on Friday also showed some cooling in employment. While nonfarm payrolls rose more than expected in February, unemployment also rose, while payroll readings for January were revised substantially lower. Other precious metals were muted on Monday, but were also sitting on strong gains from last week. Platinum futures rose 0.2% to $919.40 an ounce, while silver futures fell 0.1% to $24.517 an ounce. Copper prices rangebound amid mixed China data Among industrial metals, copper futures expiring in May steadied at $3.8957 a pound on Monday, tracking middling economic signals from top importer China. Data released last week showed China’s copper imports rose during the first two months of the year. But their pace of growth remained languid, especially as factory activity in the country remained on the backfoot. This notion was furthered by inflation data released over the weekend. While consumer inflation grew slightly more than expected, producer inflation pushed further into deflationary territory, indicating that factory activity, a key driver of Chinese copper demand, remained depressed. https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/gold-prices-steady-with-2200-in-sight-cpi-awaited-for-more-rate-cues-3331628

2024-03-11 04:14

Copyrighted Image by: Reuters. Investing.com-- Most Asian currencies moved in a limited range on Monday, while the dollar languished near two-month lows as markets awaited key U.S. inflation data for more cues on when the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. Regional currencies were sitting on some strength from last week after somewhat dovish signals from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and middling labor data reinforced bets that the central bank will begin trimming rates by as soon as June. This trade weighed heavily on the dollar, pulling the greenback to near two-month lows, where it hovered on Monday. Japanese yen near 1-mth high as BOJ pivot bets grow The Japanese yen was among the biggest benefactors of a softer dollar, surging sharply in the past two sessions to an over one-month high. The yen traded around 147 to the dollar on Monday, and was also supported by growing conviction that the Bank of Japan was close to ending its negative interest rates and yield curve control policies by as soon as next week. An upward revision in GDP data showed the Japanese economy dodging a technical recession in the fourth quarter. Strength in the economy gives the BOJ more headroom to tighten policy sooner. The BOJ is set to meet next week, with a Reuters report stating that policymakers were considering a rate move either in March or late-April. Other Asian currencies moved in a flat-to-low range. The Australian dollar fell 0.2%, as waning bets over more interest rate hikes by the Reserve Bank weighed on the currency. Signs of cooling economic growth also spurred expectations that the RBA will cut interest rates this year. The South Korean won and Singapore dollar strengthened slightly, while the Indian rupee steadied near six-month highs, with key inflation data from the country also on tap later this week. Dollar steadies, CPI data awaited for rate cut cues The dollar index and dollar index futures steadied above the 102 level on Monday, after clocking steep losses last week. The greenback was walloped by comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell that the central bank was close to seeing enough evidence of easing inflation. Powell also clarified that he was not looking for inflation to reach 2% to begin considering rate cuts. Adding to this pressure, data on Friday showed nonfarm payrolls grew more than expected in February. But January’s reading was revised substantially lower, while other readings showed unemployment rose, indicating some cooling in the labor space. Powell’s comments put Tuesday’s CPI data squarely in focus, especially as several other Fed officials also signaled that any interest rate cuts by the Fed will depend largely on the path of inflation. https://www.investing.com/news/forex-news/asia-fx-muted-dollar-near-2mth-low-with-cpi-inflation-in-focus-3331620

2024-03-11 01:39

Copyrighted Image by: Reuters. Investing.com-- Oil prices settled lower Monday, extending losses from the prior week as investors looked ahead to key U.S. inflation data and a fresh updates on the global supply and demand outlook for oil due this week. By 14:30 ET (18.30 GMT), the U.S. crude futures fell 0.1% to settle at $77.93 a barrel and the Brent contract rsoe 0.3% to $82.32 a barrel. OPEC, EIA to provide fresh crude outlook Monthly reports from OPEC, and and International Energy Agency slated for Tuesday and Thursday, respectively, will provide an updated outlook on the global crude demand and supply at time when many continue to fret over sluggish demand. In its most report in January, OPEC kept its forecast for strong demand, estimating that global oil demand will rise by 2.25 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024 and by 1.85 million bpd in 2025. That was in contrast somewhat to the IEA's report, forecasting that demand is likely to slow. The update come just as OPEC and its allies, or OPEC+, agreed to extend voluntarily cuts of about 2.2 million barrels per day in Q2. The outlook on demand will also be shaped by expectations about global rate cuts, with a slew of data this week likely to influence the Fed's thinking ahead of its monetary policy this month. US CPI data, OPEC monthly report awaited A key U.S. consumer price index inflation report due on Tuesday is set to offer more cues on the path of interest rates. Federal Reserve officials had warned last week that inflation will largely determine when the central bank begins trimming interest rates in 2024. The warning, coupled with a stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls reading for February, kept markets on edge over higher-for-longer U.S. interest rates. Tuesday's CPI reading is expected to show that inflation remained well above the Fed’s 2% annual target, giving the bank little immediate impetus to cut interest rates. Reduced interest rates are expected to boost economic activity in the world's largest energy consumer, likely boosting demand for crude. Supply still seen tight this year Concerns over sluggish demand from the biggest crude importer in the world have largely offset market expectations for tighter supplies this year, even after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said it will maintain its current pace of production cuts. With OPEC+ extending its voluntary production cut agreement until the end of Q2 2024, this could tighten the market as demand recovers from its seasonal lull. Disruptions in the Middle East are also expected to persist, as talks over an Israel-Hamas ceasefire fell through. Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) is planning to reduce its supply of Arab heavy crude to term customers in Asia starting in April due to oilfield maintenance, while weekly data from Baker Hughes shows that the U.S. oil rigs rose by just two rigs over the last week, with the total oil rig count increasing to 504 for the week ending March 8. https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-prices-dip-as-demand-concerns-offset-tighter-supply-outlook-3331583

2024-03-08 21:15

Copyrighted Image by: Reuters Investing.com – Gold prices settled at a record high Friday after briefly topping $2,200 for the first ever as growing optimism on major central banks dropping the axe on interest rates in the coming months and ongoing geopolitical tensions in high demand. Gold futures for April delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by 0.8% settle a record of $2178.6 a troy ounce after hitting an all-time high of $2,202.35. The latest record milestone for the precious metal, which notched a 4% gain for the week, comes as investors digested a slew of remarks form central banks and economic data including the jobs report Friday that points to rate cuts in the coming months. Data Friday showed the U.S. economy created 275,000 jobs last month from a downward revised 229,000, well above economists' expectations for a 160,000 new jobs on a slowdown in wages and a moderate uptick in unemployment. "The downgrades to the December and January figures and the rising unemployment revealed by the household survey nevertheless suggest the market is cooling," Desjardins said in a note. The 2-year Treasury yield, which is sensitive to Fed rate policy, fell 2 basis points, adding further fuel to record rally in gold. Treasury yields were also dented a day earlier after the European Central Bank cut its inflation forecast, prompting investor bets on a rate cut as soon as June. As gold non-interest-bearing asset, the prospect of lower interest rates lowers the opportunity cost of owning gold relative to interest-bearing assets like bonds, boosting demand. The record run in gold comes even as a certain cohort of investors in gold continue to head for the exit. Global gold exchange traded funds "collectively saw another outflow in February, extending their losing streak to nine month," The World Gold Council reported Thursday. Total assets under management in global gold ETFs fell by 1.8% in February, to US$206 billion. Yet, that did little to dent demand for the yellow metal as central banks continue to buy the yellow metal amid an ongoing effort to diversify their reservers, led by China. Central banks bought 1,037 tonnes of gold last year, just shy of the all-time high of 2022, as shown by data from the World Gold Council. Looking ahead to next, the yellow metal is likely to remain in focus as fresh consumer inflation day will likely offer fresh clues on the path of U.S. interest rates. "U.S. inflation numbers will be in the spotlight on Tuesday as U.S. Federal Reserve officials consider when it might be appropriate to begin lowering interest rates," RBC said in a note. https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/gold-notches-4-weekly-gain-as-record-run-continues-3331174

2024-03-08 18:58

Crypto firm Galaxy released a research note this week assessing the dip in crypto on Tuesday, March 5, and what it means for the bull market. In a note from the firm's research team, they said BTC is "still not for rookies" after the premier cryptocurrency fell following the new all-time high earlier in the week. "The drawdown was compounded by significant long liquidations -- $400m between 2-3 pm ET alone," noted the analysts. "The last 24h (as of 7 am ET Wednesday) saw more than $800m in long liquidations (and more than $1bn total including short liqs) across crypto futures exchanges." With bitcoin going on to reach further new all-time highs, Galaxy said volatility is back and is likely to remain "as we scale the wall of worry." "Some old coins did revive yesterday [March 5] and probably sell, possibly helping to create the intraday top," said the analysts. "Blockchain data suggests that a large chunk of coins mined all the way back in 2010 came online yesterday and moved onchain – we assume these were sells. Everyone has a price, and if this was one person and they did sell, they probably wished they'd sold in 2021 at these levels and decided to take money off the table now that we're back." However, when the firm assessed data from Coin Days Destroyed, they noted that old coins coming online tend to mark either bullish peaks or desperate bottoms. Nevertheless, "make no mistake, we will climb a wall of worry as this bull market continues," declared the analysts, who believe the bitcoin rise is "still just getting started. "Have conviction, take your coins into self-custody if you can, and enjoy the greatest game the markets have ever seen," they concluded. https://www.investing.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/crypto-firm-galaxy-says-bitcoin-will-climb-the-wall-of-worry-as-the-bull-market-continues-432SI-3331123

2024-03-08 14:22

Copyrighted Image by: Reuters Investing.com -- Oil prices settled lower Friday, wrapping up the week with a loss as concerns about oversupply persist just investors weighed up a mixed U.S. monthly jobs report that did little to influence expectations on a rate cut as soon as June. By 14:30 ET (19.30 GMT), the U.S. crude futures fell 1.2% to settle at $78.01 a barrel and the Brent contract dropped 1.1% to $82.08 a barrel. Both benchmarks fell more than 1% on the week. Rate-cut bets unchanged after mixed U.S. jobs report The U.S. economy added more jobs than expected last month, as nonfarm payrolls rose by 275,000 in February, increasing from a downwardly revised total of 229,000 in January. But wage growth slowed and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose, muddying the outlook on the health of the labor market and on the Federal Reserve rate-cut path. The data justifes "neither a further back up in rates nor a near-term reduction," Stifel said in a note as odds of June rate cut remained roughly unchanged at 58%, according to Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor Tool. Optimism for rate cuts, which would boost economic growth and crude demand, is gaining momentum, with many now expecting the European Central Bank to cut reasonably shortly. The ECB will likely start lowering interest rates some time between April and June, French central bank head and ECB policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Friday. Oversupply fears persist as international energy watchdog sees well-supplied market The IEA's oil markets and industry division head said, in an interview with Reuters, that the agency sees a relatively well-supplied market in 2024 with demand growth slowing, something that could put a ceiling on prices. Data released on Thursday showed that China posted a 5.1% rise in imports in the first two months of 2024 from a year earlier to about 10.74 million barrels per day. “However, the overall buying trend remains soft as the purchases were lower when compared to imports of 11.39MMbbls/d in December,” said analysts at ING, in a note. “China has been slowing its overseas purchases primarily due to slowing demand from refineries, weak economic indicators, and higher inventories.” Baker Hughes rig count falls The number of oil rigs operating in the U.S. rose by fell to 504 from 506, the first decline in four weeks, according to data Friday from energy services firm Baker Hughes, despite signs, albeit nascent, that a recovery in refinery activity is underway. But even though drillers in the U.S. are boring fewer wells, the new oil wells coming online, which are more efficient, are expected to continue to support an uptick in domestic production beyond the current record level. https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/crude-oil-heads-for-weekly-losses-rate-cuts-eyed-3330831