2023-10-30 13:39

Copyrighted Image by: Reuters The World Bank has issued a warning about potential disruptions to crude supplies due to escalating conflicts in the Middle East. This could result in a reduction of 500,000 to 8 million barrels daily from global markets, potentially driving oil prices up to $157 a barrel. This scenario brings back memories of the 1973 Arab oil embargo which led to skyrocketing oil prices globally. Despite the ongoing Israel-Hamas war, the impact on the oil market has been minimal, reflecting an enhanced global economic resilience against price volatility. This resilience is largely due to strategic petroleum reserves and reduced oil dependence following the energy crisis of the 1970s. However, for this quarter, the World Bank's baseline forecast anticipates oil prices to average at $90 a barrel. The bank projects a decline in oil prices to $81 a barrel next year, as global economic growth slows down. Alongside this, commodity prices are also predicted to see a decline of 4.1% next year. These forecasts are based on current global economic trends and geopolitical events. The potential disruption of crude supplies due to rising Middle Eastern conflicts could significantly alter these projections. As such, stakeholders in the global energy market are urged to monitor these developments closely. https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-price-volatility-looms-amid-middle-east-conflicts-world-bank-warns-93CH-3213879

2023-10-30 12:24

Copyrighted Image by: Reuters. The World Bank has forecasted a decrease in global oil prices from an average of $90 per barrel in the fourth quarter to $81 by 2023, due to an expected economic slowdown and lower demand. However, it has also warned of potential surges if the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas intensifies. This comes despite the fact that oil prices have seen a modest increase of around 6% amidst the conflict, while other commodities have largely remained stable. In its latest Commodity Markets Outlook report, the World Bank has presented three risk scenarios for oil prices, based on historical regional conflicts since the 1970s. The first scenario, termed as "small disruption", mirrors the output reduction observed during the Libyan civil war in 2011. Under this scenario, oil prices could escalate to $93-$102 a barrel in the fourth quarter. The second, or "medium disruption" scenario, is similar to the situation during the Iraq war in 2003. This could potentially drive prices between $109 and $121 per barrel. The third and most severe scenario, called "large disruption", reflects the impact of the 1973 Arab oil embargo, which could cause prices to soar to $140-$157 a barrel. Ayhan Kose, the World Bank's Deputy Chief Economist, warned of the implications of persistent high oil prices. He noted that such a situation would inevitably lead to high food price inflation - a significant concern for many developing countries. https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/world-bank-warns-of-potential-oil-price-surge-amid-global-conflicts-93CH-3213692

2023-10-30 11:03

Copyrighted Image by: Reuters. In the latest development of the ongoing saga of Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), VanEck, a New York-based investment firm, has revised its application to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for a spot Bitcoin ETF. The amendment was noted in the filing on Wednesday, October 27. The firm is proposing a unique approach in the industry by using Bitcoin for fund seeding instead of traditional cash-based strategies. The move comes as part of a broader trend in the industry, where firms like Bitwise Asset Management, Invesco, and Valkyrie are refining their spot Bitcoin ETF applications, despite previous SEC rejections due to market manipulation concerns. The SEC continues to delay decisions on these proposals. VanEck's Bitcoin Trust aims to mirror Bitcoin's performance through Bitcoin holdings rather than cash. Its shares will be traded on the Cboe BZX Exchange and sold or redeemed in blocks of 50,000 shares known as "Creation Basket," based on the represented Bitcoin amount. Scott Johnsson, a finance lawyer, highlighted these changes in VanEck's filing, notably the "affirmative addition" of "seeding" with Bitcoin instead of cash. However, he cautioned against drawing too many conclusions from these amendments. In parallel with its Bitcoin efforts, VanEck also plans to launch Ethereum-styled futures contracts upon SEC approval. These contracts will be part of the firm's Ether Futures ETF, a standardized product with cash-settled futures contracts tradable on the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) regulated platform. The revision in VanEck's application comes amidst a surge in interest for Bitcoin ETFs that has catapulted Bitcoin's price to new heights. As of Monday, Bitcoin traded at $34,218.7, reflecting a weekly increase of 11.3% and a market cap of $668 billion, with a total circulating supply of 19,528,018 BTC. Bitcoin's trading volume rose by 38.72%, and its value increased by 0.36%. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler confirmed that multiple Bitcoin ETF applications are currently under review. The industry eagerly awaits the SEC's decision, as the approval of a Bitcoin ETF would mark a significant milestone in the mainstream acceptance of cryptocurrency. https://www.investing.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/vaneck-revises-bitcoin-etf-application-proposes-bitcoin-for-fund-seeding-93CH-3213585

2023-10-30 10:37

Copyrighted Image by: Reuters. Oil prices took a downturn early Monday, following a significant rise last Friday. This fluctuation was largely influenced by the escalating Israel-Hamas conflict, which has raised concerns over potential disruptions in global crude supplies. The Middle East, currently embroiled in this conflict, is responsible for approximately one third of the world's oil production. Despite the ongoing tension, major oil producers such as Iran and Saudi Arabia have remained uninvolved directly. This development has led to an uncertain investment climate, with investors also awaiting the Federal Reserve's upcoming decision on interest rates. It is anticipated that borrowing costs will be held steady. Adding to these dynamics are expectations around data on China's manufacturing and services growth. China's sluggish recovery has sparked concerns over consistently weak energy demand. However, positive economic indicators could potentially trigger price increases. In light of these factors, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) experienced a 1.5% decrease, falling to $84.28 per barrel. Brent Crude also saw a drop of 1.1%, bringing its price down to $89.47 per barrel. https://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/oil-prices-slip-amid-middle-east-tensions-and-anticipation-of-economic-indicators-93CH-3213492

2023-10-30 10:01

Copyrighted Image by: Reuters. Bitcoin and altcoin prices have paused their rally as the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting approaches, scheduled for October 31 and November 1, 2023. With cryptocurrency traders closely observing the potential for interest rate changes, current data indicates a slowdown in inflation. This has led to a 96.2% probability of unchanged rates according to the CME FedWatch Tool. However, Federal Reserve officials, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, have suggested a possible rate hike in the December 13 meeting. Powell's comments on the health of the U.S economy are considered crucial by investors who currently anticipate a pause in interest rate hikes at the upcoming FOMC gathering. The CME FedWatch Tool suggests a 19.8% chance of a minor 0.25% rate hike from the current range of 550-575 bps. Any insinuations about future rate hikes from Powell could provoke reactions in Bitcoin price, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Indices. In addition to the FOMC meeting, key events this week that could influence the markets include labor market reports, ISM Manufacturing and Services PMI, JOLTs Job Openings, factory orders, and earnings reports from 20% of S&P listed companies. Amid these developments, Bitcoin's rally has paused due to significant on-chain developments noted by CryptoQuant research head Julio Monero. The BTC price is currently $34,200, with a trading volume surge of 35% over the last 24 hours. The 24-hour low and high are $34,098 and $34,743 respectively. CoinGape has indicated that profit booking by short-term Bitcoin holders could disrupt Bitcoin's potential rally. The significant $35,000 resistance level for Bitcoin is under intense scrutiny as traders await further developments. https://www.investing.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/bitcoin-rally-pauses-as-traders-await-fomc-meeting-and-potential-interest-rate-changes-93CH-3213335

2023-10-30 09:27

Copyrighted Image by: Reuters. In the latest developments of the SEC v Ripple case, XRP experienced a 2.02% increase, closing at $0.5561 on Sunday, October 29, 2023. This price movement follows a period of scrutiny aimed at former SEC Chair Jay Clayton's decision to charge Ripple, with critics arguing that Clayton should have recused himself from the case due to potential conflicts of interest. John E. Deaton, a notable critic of Clayton's involvement, highlighted potential conflicts related to Consensys, a competitor of Ripple. The law firm representing Consensys is also involved in the Quorum JPMCoin deal. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse and co-founder Chris Larsen expressed their views on Clayton's actions on Squawk Box. The case overseen by Judge Analisa Torres is progressing towards a November 9 deadline for a briefing schedule on remedies for remaining charges against Ripple. In this context, documents related to a speech by William Hinman, former SEC Director and current Simpson Thacher employee linked to Enterprise Ethereum, could play a key role in settlement talks. These documents, shielded multiple times by the SEC, are considered crucial alongside the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling. Uncertainties surrounding the SEC's appeal plans and progress towards a BTC-spot ETF market continue to influence XRP price movements. After rallying to a high of $0.9327 in July, XRP is now eyeing the $0.5835 resistance level. Further controversy arose following comments from Joe Grundfest about Clayton's preference for suing executives in non-fraud cases, which stirred the community. https://www.investing.com/news/cryptocurrency-news/xrp-price-rises-amid-ongoing-sec-v-ripple-case-and-scrutiny-over-former-sec-chair-93CH-3213287